© Kantar Worldpanel A Summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market to 26 December 2010

© Kantar Worldpanel

A Summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market to 26 December 2010


Grocery Performance Summary

• The Grocery market continues to show value growth, the latest quarter shows market value growth of +2.1% year on year.

• Price inflation continues to be the key driver of this return to growth, standing at just under +4%.

• Branded vs. Private Label: Private label performance has dropped back this period as compared to the 12 weeks to November as consumers move back to branded for the holidays. Overall the trend continues to be upwards as the private label value share of the Irish grocery market is up almost one point compared to same period last year.


-1.0

-4.8 -4.6-4.0

-5.3

-6.3

-4.9

-7.6 -7.5-8.4

-6.9-7.5

-6.4-5.6

-3.6

-1.2-0.5

2.1 2.1

0.1

2.53.4

How has the grocery market performed this year?We continue to see growth for the grocery market over shorter periods.

4 weekly trended YoY Growth

KANTAR WORLDPANEL: 4 W/E 26TH DEC 2010Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 4w/e 26th Dec 2010


HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 52 & 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010

9,436,973 9,108,004 8,894,702

2,301,266 2,145,830 2,190,358

52 w/e 28Dec 08

52 w/e 27Dec 09

52 w/e 26Dec 10

12 w/e 28Dec 08

12 w/e 27Dec 09

12 w/e 26Dec 10

52 we €000’s

-3.5% -2.3%

12 we €000’s

-6.8% +2.1%

Annual Performance

Quarterly Performance

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 52 & 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010


HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 4 W/E 4 w/e 26th Dec 2010 - The total grocery market has improved performance on last year in the 4 week run up to Christmas.

868,778

803,329

830,400

4 w/e 28 Dec 08 4 w/e 27 Dec 09 4 w/e 26 Dec 10

4 we €000’s

-7.5+3.4%

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 4w/e 26th Dec 2010


WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING QUARTERLY MARKET GROWTH? 12 w/e 26th December 2010 – The food categories continue to see strong value growth while healthcare suffers

10 91.5 1.36.9 7.23.9 3.8

28.3 29.3

44.7 44.3

4.7 4.8

12 w/e 27 Dec 09 12 w/e 26 Dec 10

Value share % Value change

2

-6

-12

8

-1

6

1

3

Total Grocery

Alcohol

Healthcare

Household & Petcare

Toiletries

Ambient Food

Fresh & Chilled Food

Frozen Food

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010


HOW IS TOTAL FOOD PERFORMING?52 & 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010 Food continues to see growth over the shorter term, driven by Ambient.

7,390,057 7,240,472 7,097,630

1,774,245 1,667,193 1,717,863

52 w/e 28 Dec08

52 w/e 27 Dec09

52 w/e 26 Dec10

12 w/e 28 Dec08

12 w/e 27 Dec09

12 w/e 26 Dec10

52 we €000’s

-2.0% - 2.0%

12 we €000’s

-6.0% 3.0%

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 52 & 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010


HOW IS THE FOOD MARKET PERFORMING ON TRENDED BASIS? % VALUE GROWTH VS LAST YEAR, 12 WEEKLY TRENDED

-0.8

1.9

-7.3

3.0

2.31.7

0.5

-5.1

-3.0

-7.0-7.4

-7.2

-7.3

-6.0

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

12 w/e 27Dec 09

12 w/e 24Jan 10

12 w/e 21Feb 10

12 w/e 21Mar 10

12 w/e 18Apr 10

12 w/e 16May 10

12 w/e 13Jun 10

12 w/e 11Jul 10

12 w/e 08Aug 10

12 w/e 05Sep 10

12 w/e 03Oct 10

12 w/e 31Oct 10

12 w/e 28Nov 10

12 w/e 26Dec 10

TOTAL FOOD

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12w/e 26 th Dec 2010


WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING MARKET VOLUME (PACK) GROWTH? 12 w/e 26th December 2010 – We are seeing some growth for ambient and frozen as they recover slightly in pack sales over the Christmas period

2.8 2.80.6 0.57.1 7.02.5 2.4

28.7 29.3

54.6 54.3

3.6 3.7

12 w/e 27 Dec 09 12 w/e 26 Dec 10

Volume share (Pack) Volume (Pack) change

-0.2

-1.6

-9.3

-1.2

-6.0

1.9

-0.8

0.5

Total Grocery

Alcohol

Healthcare

Household & Petcare

Toiletries

Ambient Food

Fresh & Chilled Food

Frozen Food



Promotional activity is beginning to pick up again but remains behind the Christmas period last year.

19.7 19.5 19.820.2 20.0

19.519.1 19.0

18.519.0 19.1

19.7 19.519.1

18.4 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.617.0 17.0 17.1

17.8 17.9

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

12 w

/e 2

5 Ja

n 09

12 w

/e 2

2 Fe

b 09

12 w

/e 2

2 M

ar 0

9

12 w

/e 1

9 Ap

r 09

12 w

/e 1

7 M

ay 0

9

12 w

/e 1

4 Ju

n 09

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

l 09

12 w

/e 0

9 Au

g 09

12 w

/e 0

6 Se

p 09

12 w

/e 0

4 O

ct 0

9

12 w

/e 0

1 N

ov 0

9

12 w

/e 2

9 N

ov 0

9

12 w

/e 2

7 D

ec 0

9

12 w

/e 2

4 Ja

n 10

12 w

/e 2

1 Fe

b 10

12 w

/e 2

1 M

ar 1

0

12 w

/e 1

8 Ap

r 10

12 w

/e 1

6 M

ay 1

0

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

n 10

12 w

/e 1

1 Ju

l 10

12 w

/e 0

8 Au

g 10

12 w

/e 0

5 Se

p 10

12 w

/e 0

3 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 3

1 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 2

8 N

ov 1

0

12 w

/e 2

6 D

ec 1

0

12

% Value Sold on Deal in Total Grocery, €

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12w/e 26 th Dec 2010


Private label value share declining in latest 12 week period, while pack share continues to rise to its highest point in two years

30.4 30

.9 31.1

32.3

32.2

32.2 32.4 32

.8 33

33.3

33.1

32.9

32.4

32

32.6 33

33.5

33.2

32.9

33 32.9

32.9

32.8

32.9 33.1 33.3

32.9

34.1

33.3

33.1

33.1

33.2 33

.5 33.8 34

.5 34.7

34.8

34.5

34.3

34.2

34 34.2

34.3 34

.7 35 35.1

34.9

34.5

34.2

34 34.2 34

.6 35.1 35.3

12 w

/e 2

8 D

ec 0

8

12 w

/e 2

5 Ja

n 09

12 w

/e 2

2 Fe

b 09

12 w

/e 2

2 M

ar 0

9

12 w

/e 1

9 Ap

r 09

12 w

/e 1

7 M

ay 0

9

12 w

/e 1

4 Ju

n 09

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

l 09

12 w

/e 0

9 Au

g 09

12 w

/e 0

6 Se

p 09

12 w

/e 0

4 O

ct 0

9

12 w

/e 0

1 N

ov 0

9

12 w

/e 2

9 N

ov 0

9

12 w

/e 2

7 D

ec 0

9

12 w

/e 2

4 Ja

n 10

12 w

/e 2

1 Fe

b 10

12 w

/e 2

1 M

ar 1

0

12 w

/e 1

8 Ap

r 10

12 w

/e 1

6 M

ay 1

0

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

n 10

12 w

/e 1

1 Ju

l 10

12 w

/e 0

8 Au

g 10

12 w

/e 0

5 Se

p 10

12 w

/e 0

3 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 3

1 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 2

8 N

ov 1

0

12 w

/e 2

6 D

ec 1

0

% Value share

% Packs share

13

Private Label Share of Grocery



WHERE IS PRIVATE LABEL STRONG?

46.5%

Private Label Spend % 12 w/e 26 Dec 10

81

70 6967

6361

54

48 47

4139 39 39

3734 33 33

17 1715 14 14 13 13 12 12 11

9 8 8 86 6

4 4 3 2

29

23 2117

2020

3132

Po

ult

ry+G

ame

Fre

sh F

ish

Ch

illed

Bak

ery

Fre

sh M

eat

Fo

od

Wra

ps

Fro

zen

Po

ult

ry

Ch

illed

Co

nve

nie

nce

Fro

zen

Mea

t

Kit

chen

To

wel

s

Fac

ial T

issu

es

Ch

illed

Dri

nks

Sw

eet

Ho

me

Co

oki

ng

To

ilet

Tis

sues

Dai

ry P

rod

uct

s

Fro

zen

Fis

h

To

tal G

roce

ry

Fru

it+V

eg+S

alad

s

Pet

foo

d

Fro

zen

Pre

par

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oo

ds

Ble

ach

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WC

Cln

rs

Han

d W

ash

Pro

du

cts

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g

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ft D

rin

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Bis

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Bre

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Bre

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Win

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Fab

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Co

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s

San

pro

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So

ap

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care

Ho

t B

ever

ages

An

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Co

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y

Sau

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Fu

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Po

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Air

Fre

shen

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Bat

h/S

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wer

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r+L

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was

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pas

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dd

itiv

es



3.92%2.10%

0

0

0

0

0

0

12 W

/e 0

2 D

ec 0

7

12 W

/e 3

0 D

ec 0

7

12 W

/e 2

7 Ja

n 08

12 W

/e 2

4 F

eb 0

8

12 W

/e 2

3 M

ar 0

8

12 W

/e 2

0 A

pr 0

8

12 W

/e 1

8 M

ay 0

8

12 W

/e 1

5 Ju

n 08

12 W

/e 1

3 Ju

l 08

12 W

/e 1

0 A

ug 0

8

12 W

/e 0

7 S

ep 0

8

12 W

/e 0

5 O

ct 0

8

12 W

/e 0

2 N

ov 0

8

12 w

/e 2

8 D

ec 0

8

12 w

/e 2

5 Ja

n 09

12 w

/e 2

2 F

eb 0

9

12 w

/e 2

2 M

ar 0

9

12 w

/e 1

9 A

pr 0

9

12 w

/e 1

7 M

ay 0

9

12 w

/e 1

4 Ju

n 09

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

l 09

12 w

/e 0

9 A

ug 0

9

12 w

/e 0

6 S

ep 0

9

12 w

/e 0

4 O

ct 0

9

12 w

/e 0

1 N

ov 0

9

12 w

/e 2

9 N

ov 0

9

12 w

/e 2

7 D

ec 0

9

12 w

/e 2

4 Ja

n 10

12 w

/e 2

1 F

eb 1

0

12 w

/e 2

1 M

ar 1

0

12 w

/e 1

8 A

pr 1

0

12 w

/e 1

6 M

ay 1

0

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

n 10

12 w

/e 1

1 Ju

l 10

12 w

/e 0

8 A

ug 1

0

12 w

/e 0

5 S

ep 1

0

12 w

/e 0

3 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 3

1 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 2

8 N

ov 1

0

12 w

/e 2

6 D

ec 1

0

% c

ha

ng

e

Inflation Value

Market Growth & Inflation Inflation has come down slightly this period, but value growth continues to

improve.



92 92 95 92 90 90 8674 75 74 73 75 78 72 66

4840 35 35 34 33 27 25

18 16 20 18 20 20 2538 40

5058

6881 79 80

12 w

/e 2

4 Fe

b 08

12 w

/e M

ar 0

812

w/e

20

Apr 0

812

w/e

18

May

08

12 w

/e 1

5 Ju

n 08

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

n 08

12 w

/e 1

0 Au

g 08

12 w

/e 0

7 Se

p 08

12 w

/e 0

5 O

ct 0

812

w/e

02

Nov

08

12 w

/e 3

0 N

ov 0

812

w/e

28

Dec

08

12 w

/e 2

5 Ja

n 09

12 w

/e 2

2 Fe

b 09

12 w

/e 2

2 M

ar 0

912

w/e

19

Apr 0

912

w/e

17

May

09

12 w

/e 1

4 Ju

n 09

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

l 09

12 w

/e 0

9 Au

g 09

12 w

/e 6

Sep

09

12 w

/e 4

Oct

09

12 w

/e 0

1 N

ov 0

912

w/e

29

Nov

09

12 w

/e 2

7 D

ec 0

912

w/e

25

Jan

1012

w/e

21

Feb

10

12 w

/e 2

1 M

ar 1

0 12

w/e

18

Apri

l 10

12 w

/e 1

6 M

ay 1

012

w/e

13

Jun

1012

w/e

11

July

10

12w

/e 0

8 Au

g 10

12 w

/e 0

5 Se

pt 1

012

w/e

03

Oct

10

12 w

/e 3

1 O

ct 1

012

w/e

28

Nov

10

12 w

/e 2

6 D

ec 1

0

% of Markets with like-for-like Price Inflation

16

The number of markets seeing inflation remains high at around 80%



17

Grocery Volume (Packs) Growth by Price BrandThe budget tier continues to see growth as shoppers seek cheaper packs

Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)

Change in sales Share of sales



No of Trips per Household56.7 55.9

12 w/e 27 Dec 09 12 w/e 26 Dec 10

Spend per Trip

€23.98 €24.00

12 w/e 27 Dec 09 12 w/e 26 Dec 10

Average Spend per Household€1,359 €1,342

12 w/e 27 Dec 09 12 w/e 26 Dec 10

SHOPPERS CUT BACK THIS PERIOD: SHOPPING LESS OFTEN, BUT

MAINTAINING SPEND AT €24 PER TRIP

What has been the Effect on Shopper Behaviour?



More emphasis on Trolley shopsIn the latest period, shoppers are looking to plan ahead more, instead of smaller top-up shops.

-8.3

1.2

3.4

-5.5

0.8

-0.5

Destination Baskets Trolley

% change in spend

% change in packs

60.4%35.4%4.2%1 item 2-9 items 10+ items

% of spend



Brief Overview of the UK Market


UK Grocery Volume (Packs) Growth by Price BrandUK are also seeing an increase in budget products, but we are also seeing an increase in the amount of super premium products bought.

27

20

32.6

11.2

9

% Packs

SuperPremium

Premium

Good

Standard

Budget

Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)

2.4

15.9

-4.4

-1.3 -0.6

1.1

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

AllPurchasing

Budget(Median -

75%)

Standard(Median -

25%)

Good(Medianprice)

Premium(Median+25%)

Super Prem(Median+75%)

Change in sales Share of sales



UK Grocery evolution – Inflation and shopper reaction

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

12 W

/e 2

7 Ja

n 0

8

12 W

/e 2

4 F

eb 0

8

12 W

/e 2

3 M

ar 0

8

12 W

/e 2

0 A

pr

08

12 W

/e 1

8 M

ay 0

8

12 W

/e 1

5 Ju

n 0

8

12 W

/e 1

3 Ju

l 08

12 W

/e 1

0 A

ug

08

12 W

/e 0

7 S

ep 0

8

12 W

/e 0

5 O

ct 0

8

12 W

/e 0

2 N

ov

08

12 w

/e 2

8 D

ec 0

8

12 w

/e 2

5 Ja

n 0

9

12 w

/e 2

2 F

eb 0

9

12 w

/e 2

2 M

ar 0

9

12 w

/e 1

9 A

pr

09

12 w

/e 1

7 M

ay 0

9

12 w

/e 1

4 Ju

n 0

9

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

l 09

12 w

/e 0

9 A

ug

09

12 w

/e 0

6 S

ep 0

9

12 w

/e 0

4 O

ct 0

9

12 w

/e 0

1 N

ov

09

12 w

/e 2

9 N

ov

09

12 w

/e 2

7 D

ec 0

9

12 w

/e 2

4 Ja

n 1

0

12 w

/e 2

1 F

eb 1

0

12 w

/e 2

1 M

ar 1

0

12 w

/e 1

8 A

pr

10

12 w

/e 1

6 M

ay 1

0

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

n 1

0

12 w

/e 1

1 Ju

l 10

12 w

/e 0

8 A

ug

10

12 w

/e 0

5 S

ep 1

0

12 w

/e 0

3 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 3

1 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 2

8 N

ov

10

12 w

/e 2

6 D

ec 1

0

Inflation

HH Spend change

12 w/e 26 Dec 2010


UK Grocery update to 26 Dec 2010

– Inflation rate has risen to 3.0 this period and we expect this to continue in the coming periods.

– 70% of markets are in growth (volume) in the 12 weeks leading up to Christmas.

– The average discount is higher in many stores compared to the same time last year.

– Households are taking advantage of the increase in promotional activity in the run up to the festive period.


Documents

© Kantar Worldpanel A Summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market to 26 December 2010