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Where the Birds Where the Birds At?At?

An experiment on the declining An experiment on the declining populations of bird species in Brazil populations of bird species in Brazil and their connection to deforestation.and their connection to deforestation.

By: Tyler Greer, Sean Ratchford, and Seth WeltonBy: Tyler Greer, Sean Ratchford, and Seth Welton

http://www.yarapariverlodge.com/macaws.jpg

IntroductionIntroduction

Why are Bird Populations declining in Why are Bird Populations declining in Brazil?Brazil?

How is deforestation and the decline of How is deforestation and the decline of bird populations related?bird populations related?

What implications will this have for the What implications will this have for the rest of the world?rest of the world?

What must be done about it?What must be done about it?

HypothesisHypothesis Deforestation has led to a decrease in Deforestation has led to a decrease in

Bird populations in Brazil. By decreasing Bird populations in Brazil. By decreasing the amount of deforestation that occurs in the amount of deforestation that occurs in Brazil annually, the rate of extinction in Brazil annually, the rate of extinction in Brazil will decrease.Brazil will decrease.

http://www.votawphotography.com/photo/Birds/birds2.htm

MethodsMethods

Why is Brazil Important?Why is Brazil Important? Deforestation Effects on BrazilDeforestation Effects on Brazil By using graphs and Stella models a By using graphs and Stella models a

correlation can be shown that will link correlation can be shown that will link deforestation to decreasing bird deforestation to decreasing bird populations and species extinction.populations and species extinction.

Why is Brazil Important?

Amazon RainforestAmazon Rainforest Over 1600 bird Over 1600 bird

species live in Brazil, species live in Brazil, including 121 including 121 threatened species threatened species (Noon & Young).(Noon & Young).

Massive deforestation Massive deforestation occurring in Braziloccurring in Brazil

httpwww.votawphotography.com/photo/Birds/birds2.htm://

Rate of Deforestation In Rate of Deforestation In BrazilBrazil

Annual Forest Loss in Brazilian Amazon (sq. km)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Year

An

nu

al F

ore

st L

oss

(sq

. km

)

Annual Forest Loss (sq. km)

Average Forest Loss inBrazilian Amazon (sq. km)

http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.htmlhttp://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html

Deforestation in Brazil (continued)Deforestation in Brazil (continued)

Image of a Fragmented Forest over several years.

http://chesapeake.towson.edu/landscape/forestfrag/all_habitatfrag.asp

•The further away a forest fragment is from other patches of forest, the more susceptible it is to local extinction, and thus the species in these forest fragments are even more vulnerable to extinction (Christiansen and Pitter 1997).

Deforestation in BrazilDeforestation in Brazil

http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html

Estimated Remaining Forest Cover in the Brazilian Amazon (sq. km)

2950000

3000000

3050000

3100000

3150000

3200000

3250000

3300000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Est

imat

ed R

emai

ning

For

est C

over

in th

e B

razi

lian

Am

azon

(sq.

km

)

Estimated Remaining Forest Coverin the Brazilian Amazon (sq. km)

http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.htmlhttp://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html

The Effects of The Effects of DeforestationDeforestation

Habitat lossHabitat loss Concentration of SpeciesConcentration of Species Increases Competition between bird species.Increases Competition between bird species. 1.5 acres of rainforest are lost every second worldwide. 1.5 acres of rainforest are lost every second worldwide.

(http://www.rain-tree.com/facts.htm)(http://www.rain-tree.com/facts.htm)

This graph shows the remaining Atlantic Forests left on the Eastern Coast of Brazil. Over 90% of the primary forest has been destroyed. (Harris and Pimm 2004)

(Harris and Pimm 2004)

Impacts of DeforestationImpacts of Deforestation

In a study by G. M. Harris and Pimm, it In a study by G. M. Harris and Pimm, it was discovered that even bird species was discovered that even bird species who are adapted to secondary who are adapted to secondary rainforests, are just as susceptible to rainforests, are just as susceptible to extinction as birds who survive in primary extinction as birds who survive in primary rainforests. (Harris & Pimm 2004).rainforests. (Harris & Pimm 2004).

Relating Avian Species Loss Relating Avian Species Loss to Amount of Deforestationto Amount of Deforestation

Amount of Forest Cover Left in Brazil as Amount of Forest Cover Left in Brazil as of 2005 = 2,966,060 km^2of 2005 = 2,966,060 km^2

(http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html)(http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html)

Estimated Remaining Bird Species in Estimated Remaining Bird Species in Brazil = 1685Brazil = 1685 ( (http://www.camacdonald.com/birding/sabrazil.htmhttp://www.camacdonald.com/birding/sabrazil.htm))

Average Amount of Deforestation in Average Amount of Deforestation in Brazil from 1990-2005 = 18,501 km^2/yrBrazil from 1990-2005 = 18,501 km^2/yr

(http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html)(http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html)

A Relationship Detailing how A Relationship Detailing how Bird Species are Affected by Bird Species are Affected by Habitat Loss is NeededHabitat Loss is Needed

In a study by Brooks, Pimm, and Oyugi, a In a study by Brooks, Pimm, and Oyugi, a mathematical relationship was developed that mathematical relationship was developed that predicted the number of bird species for a certain predicted the number of bird species for a certain amount of habitat. amount of habitat. (Brooks et al 1999)(Brooks et al 1999)

Mathematical relationship was shown to work Mathematical relationship was shown to work accurately in Kenya, Brazil, and parts of North Americaaccurately in Kenya, Brazil, and parts of North America

Relationship is S=cA^z Relationship is S=cA^z (Brooks et al 1999)(Brooks et al 1999)

S = # of species, A is the amount of forest area, and z S = # of species, A is the amount of forest area, and z is a constant shown to be 0.15 is a constant shown to be 0.15 (Brooks et al 1999)(Brooks et al 1999)

c must be calculated by starting with an initial # of c must be calculated by starting with an initial # of species and amount of areaspecies and amount of area

Solving for cSolving for c

In 2005, the relationship would look like:In 2005, the relationship would look like:

1685 birds = c*(2966060 km^2)^.151685 birds = c*(2966060 km^2)^.15

Solving for c gives a value of 180.2Solving for c gives a value of 180.2 => S = 180.2*(A^.15)=> S = 180.2*(A^.15)

Predicting Bird LossPredicting Bird Loss

This relationship was first explored with This relationship was first explored with ExcelExcel

Results showed that Brazilian bird Results showed that Brazilian bird species would be reduced from 1685 species would be reduced from 1685 species to 1473 species by 2100.species to 1473 species by 2100.

Loss of 212 bird speciesLoss of 212 bird species

Future Effects of Future Effects of Deforestation of Bird Deforestation of Bird PopulationsPopulations

Projected Bird Species Remaining in Brazil Resulting from Habitat Loss of 18,500 acres/year

y = -2.1905x + 6088

R2 = 0.9904

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

2000 2050 2100 2150

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Bir

d S

pecie

s

Number of BirdSpecies Remaining inBrazil

Linear (Number ofBird SpeciesRemaining in Brazil)

Using StellaUsing Stella

Next, this relationship was explored using Next, this relationship was explored using a Stella Modela Stella Model

The logical flow of the modeling system The logical flow of the modeling system in Stella allows for more understanding of in Stella allows for more understanding of how habitat loss influences the number of how habitat loss influences the number of bird species.bird species.

Stella ModelStella ModelNumber of Brazilian Bird Species

Bird Species Lost

to Deforestation

C constant

Remaining Rainforest Cover

Amount of Forest Cut Down

Average Amount of

Forest Cut Down

Stella Graph Showing Number of Brazilian Bird Species Stella Graph Showing Number of Brazilian Bird Species Lost with Average Deforestation Rate of 10000 km^2/yrLost with Average Deforestation Rate of 10000 km^2/yr

6:37 PM Mon, Dec 04, 2006

Untitled

Page 12005.00 2028.75 2052.50 2076.25 2100.00

Years

1:

1:

1:

1590

1640

1690

1: Number of Brazilian Bird Species

1

1

1

1

By simply reducing the average deforestation rate to 10,000 km^2 a year,bird species will be reduced from 1685 to 1591, a loss of 94 species by 2100.

For the BirdsFor the Birds

What keeps bird biodiversity high?What keeps bird biodiversity high? Moisture in the ecosystem (Christiansen & Moisture in the ecosystem (Christiansen &

Pitter 1997)Pitter 1997) Spacious ecosystemSpacious ecosystem Concentrated environment, avoid Concentrated environment, avoid

boundariesboundaries Avoid isolationAvoid isolation

ConclusionConclusion

How to stop the declining bird How to stop the declining bird populations in Brazilpopulations in Brazil Research is currently underway to determine Research is currently underway to determine

ways to use secondary forest in order to ways to use secondary forest in order to house bird populations. house bird populations.

However, as shown from our model However, as shown from our model deforestation must be reduced in order to deforestation must be reduced in order to reduce the amount of bird species that will reduce the amount of bird species that will be lost due to deforestation.be lost due to deforestation.

Work CitedWork Cited

Brooks, Pimm & Oyugi. 1999. “Time Lag between Deforestation and Bird Extinction Brooks, Pimm & Oyugi. 1999. “Time Lag between Deforestation and Bird Extinction in Tropical Forest Fragments.” Conservation Biology, 13: 1140-1150.in Tropical Forest Fragments.” Conservation Biology, 13: 1140-1150.

Butler, Rhett A. "Deforestation in the Amazon." Butler, Rhett A. "Deforestation in the Amazon." MongabayMongabay. 2005. 30 Nov. 2006 . 2005. 30 Nov. 2006 <http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html>. <http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html>.

Christiansen M.B., Pitter E. 1997. Species loss in a forest bird community near Christiansen M.B., Pitter E. 1997. Species loss in a forest bird community near Lagoa Santa in southeastern Brazil. Biological Conservation, 80 (1):  23-32.Lagoa Santa in southeastern Brazil. Biological Conservation, 80 (1):  23-32.

Harris, G. M. & Pimm. 2004. Bird Species' Tolerance of Secondary Forest Habitats Harris, G. M. & Pimm. 2004. Bird Species' Tolerance of Secondary Forest Habitats and Its Effects on Extinction. Conservation Biology, 18 (6): 1607-1616.and Its Effects on Extinction. Conservation Biology, 18 (6): 1607-1616.

Noon & Young. 1991. Evidence of Continuing Worldwide Declines In Bird Noon & Young. 1991. Evidence of Continuing Worldwide Declines In Bird Populations: Insights from an International Conference in New Zealand. Populations: Insights from an International Conference in New Zealand. Conservation Biology, 5 (2) 141-143.Conservation Biology, 5 (2) 141-143.

"Rainforest Facts." "Rainforest Facts." RaintreeRaintree. 1996. Raintree Nutrition Inc. 28 Nov. 2006 . 1996. Raintree Nutrition Inc. 28 Nov. 2006 <http://www.rain-tree.com/facts.htm>. <http://www.rain-tree.com/facts.htm>.

Stouffer, Bierregaard, Strong & Lovejoy. 2006. Long-Term Landscape Change and Stouffer, Bierregaard, Strong & Lovejoy. 2006. Long-Term Landscape Change and Bird Abundance in Amazonian Rainforest Fragments. Conservation Bird Abundance in Amazonian Rainforest Fragments. Conservation BiologyBiology, , 20 (4): 1212-122320 (4): 1212-1223

"The Process of Habitat Fragmentation." "The Process of Habitat Fragmentation." Chesapeake Bay and Mid-Atlantic From Chesapeake Bay and Mid-Atlantic From SpaceSpace. 30 Nov. 2006 . 30 Nov. 2006 <http://chesapeake.towson.edu/landscape/forestfrag/all_habitatfrag.asp>. <http://chesapeake.towson.edu/landscape/forestfrag/all_habitatfrag.asp>.

Votaw, Melanie. "Birds 2." Votaw, Melanie. "Birds 2." Votaw PhotographyVotaw Photography. Bomoco. 30 Nov. 2006 . Bomoco. 30 Nov. 2006 <http://www.votawphotography.com/photo/Birds/birds2.htm>. <http://www.votawphotography.com/photo/Birds/birds2.htm>.