© Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)lZurich-Airport Risk Analysis of Swamp Area at Zürich Airport Daniel Bircher Safety Officer

© Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)lZurich-Airport

Risk Analysis of Swamp Area at Zürich Airport

Daniel BircherSafety Officer

ACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20072 © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)l l

1. Background

ICAO SARPs

According to ICAO Annex 14, 9.2.2 where an aerodrome is located close to water/swamp areas, or difficult terrain, and where a significant portion of approach or departure operations takes place over these areas, specialist rescue services and fire fighting equipment appropriate to the hazard and risk shall be available

Situation ZRH

1. Zürich airport does not fulfill the ICAO requirements

2. A safety assessment/aeronautical study has been conducted (by Ernst Basler + Partner AG) focussing on the following questions:

• What is the risk of an aircraft crash or a veer-off into the swampy area between RWY 14/32 and 16/34 at Zürich airport?

• Identification of potential mitigation measures (equipment, infrastructure, procedures)

• Analysis of the effectiveness of the proposed measures

• Cost-effectiveness of measures


Standards and Recommended Practises

u.a. Cost-benefit considerations

Existing was Approved

Classification

Safety **assessment

Safety Case **

Compliance Checklist

Remove Hazard

ALARP* ?

Minor

Non-Conformities identified

Document background(historical basis)

Major

Significant

Mitigate

ALARP* ?No

Yes

Yes

No

Co-ordinated by FOCA

Responsibility Airport

Up

dat

e

** Co-operation with ANSP, if necessary* ALARP: As low as reasonably practical


The Area I

Natural reserve !!


The Area II


Difficult Access


Risk-based Approaches

Evaluate Measures

Scenarios

Probability Impact / Damage

Determine Risk

Risk Appraisal Criteria

Hazard identification

Risk anaylsis

Risk Appraisal

Risk Mitigation

System Definition


Accident Analysis I: Probability

Assumptions• 1980-2005

• A/C >15 pax

• 330 accidents (RWY excursions, CFIT, loss of control, with/ without fires)

• Within 1250m from Threshold

• Within 750m from each RWY edge

Accident rates• 1.7 x 10-7 per take-off movement

• 6.4 x 10-7 per landing movement


Accident Analysis II: Impact

Class Fatalities Damage/Impact in CHF

I 0 O

II 3 30 Million

III 10 100 Million

IV 30 300 Million

V 100 1‘000 Million

VI 300 3‘000 Million

Willingness-to pay: 10 Mio. CHF per life saved


Collective Risk

R= movements (per year) x accident rate x probability of being in swamp x impact x value per life saved

„Risk equals the expected damage per year for a defined scenario“


Risk assessment

Probability*

0.0023 Events / year (re-occurrence period of 440 years). The probability of an accident at ZRH within the swampy area is expected to be 1.7 * 10-8 per movement (approach or take-off).

Risk

0.012 casualties / year and a monetarized risk of CHF 121'000.-- / year.

* All events within the swampy area at ZRH (3.8% of all excursions, veer offs) including a fire and at least a partial hull loss


Thorough evaluation of 32 measures

Special means of transportationOrganisational measures

Infrastructure-related measures Equipment

Spectrum of measures

05.09.2007 - v2

Evaluation of effects of measure on:• improved accessability for crash fire tenders• improved accessability for other F&R means• evacuation of passengers/crew• transportation of passengers/crew out of crash site


Risk mitigation measures

Selected Measures

1. Ungraveld road into parts of the swampy area

2. Footpath into the swampy area

3. Special vehicule to transport water/exinguishing agents

4. Special vehicule to transport water hoses

5. Transportable foldable mat to enable access for crash tenders

6. Rafts for adjacent pond


Results I

Effectivenes of measures between -0.1% and -20% reduction of probability (outbrake of fire) and impact (confining fire, fast rescue of pax)

risk reduction between CHF 5‘000.- and CHF 13.- per year

cost of measures between CHF 470‘000.- and CHF 3‘700.- per year


Results II

Meaning:

- Annual cost of this safety measure is 286 CHF- The annual risk reduction is 1 CHF


Results III

• None of the identified measures has a reasonable cost-benefit ratio measures ineffective

• According to the ALARP* principle, the risks are acceptable

• Swiss Civil Aviation Authority (FOCA) has accepted the study as a basis for showing compliance with the corresponding ICAO SARP

• FOCA has requested Unique (Zurich airport) to take the following actions– gather refined data on ground resistance and accessability of area– examine/evaluate accessability of area– perform F&R exercises in the area

*As Low As Reasonably Practicable


Thank you for you attention !

Documents

© Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)lZurich-Airport Risk Analysis of Swamp Area at Zürich Airport Daniel Bircher Safety Officer