tomohito@eng.hokudai.ac.jp

1

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•

•

2

2016 8GPV MSM 1

2016 8 16 9 1 Ca 2016 8 16 00 8 18 00

b 2016 8 19 00 8 22 00 c2016 8 22 00 8 24 00 d 20168 29 00 9 1 00

3

AHRODITE (1978-2009)15

AHRODITE (1978-2009)15

JMA, C-band 2016 8 17-31 [UTC]

500[mm/15days]

2016 8

( )

5

2016 8 500hPa +1STD

2016 8: 500hPa: 500hPa

( 5-6000m )

: 2016 8500hPa

+1STD

NCEP/NCAR(1948-2016.8)

, 40-50 (8 3125 ) 5, 6, 7, 9, 11

6

1 2

43

11 /26 6 /26

5 /26 4 /26

1981

7

56 ( 5000m )

2016 10 ( 5000m )

[m]

: 500hPa

56 2016 10( )

8

30 40 (hPa/ N) (N)( 30 980hPa )

300km

40N

30N

92011 2016 5(2016 )

10

CTL NoTC NoTopo SST2 ENS Obs

CTL NoTC NoTopo SST2 ENS Obs

CTL NoTC NoTopo SST2 ENS Obs

+2

Z

WRF

NCEP

+222+2+2 ((( )

11

+2+2

100mm

+2

UTC 31 00UTC (mm)

210.34km2

179.78km2

93.03km2

( DB )8 16 00JST-8 28 18JST0.628 28 19JST-9 5 18JST1.06

10

353.5

354

354.5

355

355.5

356

356.5

357

357.5

358

8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31

[m]

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

[mm/hr]

(C-band)(C(C-bab

8/19,20,2111

and)d)

8/22,23,249

8/29,30,3110

8/16,17

+2800-1300m3/s( )

• 2010 8 23 24 5342mm

• 2014 9 9 122 335mm 1 100mm

90→

15

2014 9 6 (X-MP )

• 7 (1990 2009 ).• 20 5.8/ , 21 8.9/• 2010 21• 7,8 .• ,

(1994,2007,2010 )• .

16

(1994,2007,2010) (1991,1993,1998)

flux(850hPa)

Yamada et al. (2012)

2011

17

• 7 8• 90%• ( )

Yamada et al. (2012)

18

2007(JICE 2011)

(H27 11 )

H27-

• (GCM) (RAM)

•(160 )

GCM/RAM JMA WRF RSM

MIROCPast 1990s 1990s 1990s

+2K 2050s 2050s 2050s

MPIPast 1990s 1990s 1990s

+2K 2060s 2060s 2060s

NCARPast 1990s 1990s 1990s

+2K 2080s 2080s 2080s

19

33

20

Aphr

odite

(‘90-

’07)

MIR

OC (p

ast)

MIR

OC (f

utur

e)

MPI

(pas

t)

MPI

(fut

ure)

NCAR

(pas

t)

NCAR

(fut

ure)

NHM

(pas

t)

NHM

(fut

ure)

RSM

(pas

t)

RSM

(fut

ure)

WRF

(pas

t)

WRF

(fut

ure)

All m

odel

(pas

t)

All m

odel

(fut

ure)

Prec

ipita

tion r

ate (

mm

)

0

350

250

150

50

( )

2

1.2(1.1 1.4)

mm

HP( 3 1.21 )

31.2 9

180km2

3399km2

but592km2

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

0.25 0.75 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5

1.21 1.36 ( )

(km

2 )

(m)

/ 2.2/ 3.3

1.21 1.36

0.5m 0.5-1.0m1.0-2.0m 2.0-4.0m 5.0m

21

50 8 61/150

10

(45 )

38150mm

16,244m3/s

15,955 18,240m3/s4/45 18,000m3/s9/45 17,000m3/s

+13%

22

180km2

3399km2

but592km2

276km2

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

0.25 0.75 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5

1.21 1.36 ( )

(km

2 )

(m)

/ 2.2/ 3.3/ 1.5

1.21 1.36 ( )

0.5m 0.5-1.0m1.0-2.0m 2.0-4.0m 5.0m

23

24

t/ha/yr2

(2015)

L x=L

•

1mm

v: [mm/h], h: [mm] q: [mm2/h], q* [mm/h],m:

1

0 1 La

wDiks

1

q(x,t)

RainGauge

RainGauge

RainGauge

RainGauge

RainnGGauge RainRRaainn

•••

-M

P

[mm

/60m

in]

[mm/60min]

[mm

/60m

in]

p(q*, t)t

a0q* (r q*)p(q*, t)

q*

122 (a0q*

TL )2 p(q*, t)q*

2

dq* a0q* (rq*)dt a0q*

TL dwFokker-Planck

(2016)

http://www.thr.mlit.go.jp/karyuu/_update/whatsnew/h15/2003_7_26_jishin_sokuhou/teiboukaisaku.htm

14.7K+200 15.0K+35

•

1

2

o

Fs c (kN/m2 (tf/m2))φ’ )l W (kN/m2 (tf/m2))u

I. Petrovic, 2008

0.72

1

7.5m4m

1:41000

1 kN/m2 13%-0.7

27.5O 40%

1.0m

3.5m

6.5m

(FS) [m]

F R1.0m

3.5m

6.5m

(2016)

( )

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.46.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

hm

, ,

p h

Risk =

H.W.L.

= 50 mm/h,σ = 4 mm/h, m = 4

r

0.02 1

0.6 m7.3 m

PDF(h)

( )( )

320 1

• 2016 8

• 2011-2016

• 7 11 9 10 1

• (2010 , 2014 )

• 2 1.2(1.1-1.4 ) 3

• ( )

33