9
Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P 8:30 Philly Fed 15.0 11/15 -7.1 1.06 8:30 Initial Claims 215 12/13 -20 -0.02 8:30 Continuing Claims 1663 12/13 12 -0.02 10:00 Leading Indicators 0.0 11/21 0.0 0.30 Last Report Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst 10:00 Existing Home Sales 5.2 mln 11/21 5.20 5.22 0.02 0.30 Ener Util 10:30 DoE Energy Inventories 14:00 FOMC Rate Decision (+25 bps) 14:30 Powell Press Conference Last Report Upgrades Ticker Firm From To ACC JP Morgan Underwgt Neutral BBY Moffett Sell Neutral BHGE Credit Suisse Neutral Outperf BLMN M Stanley Underwgt Mkt Wgt FGEN Citigroup Neutral Buy SHAK Jefferies Sell Hold Downgrades Ticker Firm From To ADI M Stanley Overwgt Mkt Wgt ALKS Goldman Neutral Sell CLB Credit Suisse Outperf Neutral JPM Atlantic Buy Neutral MU Needham Buy Hold MU RBC Capital Outperf Mkt Perf Initiations/Reiterations Ticker Firm Action Rating ADSK Stifel Resumed Buy ANGI SunTrust Initiated Buy SSTI Baird Initiated Outperf ULTA Citigroup Initiated Buy WIX Citigroup Initiated Buy - Global Equities Higher Ahead of FOMC Meeting. - FDX Slumps on Earnings After Citing Weak Global Economy. i -0.6 % i -1.1 h 0.7 h 1.1 Oil 46.42 h $0.2 Gold 1251.3 h $3.7 $/Euro 0.877 i 0.00 $/Yen 112.35 h 0.3 10-Yr 2.82 h 0.02 Japan China Germany UK Trading Up ($): GOOGL (6.59), RACE (3.89), TLRY (3.8), PTE (2.55), WGO (2.05), BA (2.05) Trading Down ($): FDX (-14.21), AMZN (-3.48), UPS (-3.3), MU (-2.75), FB (-2.36), AXP (-1.41) -0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 Percent Change Asia Opens Europe Opens Today’s Events Stock Specific News of Note Noteworthy Macro Events Other Markets Overnight Trading Tomorrow Overnight Trading Analyst Actions Indicators/Events Market Timing Model © Copyright 2018, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information. Earnings Reports Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs. ACN 12/20/18 AM 1.86 10547 APOG 12/20/18 AM 0.78 363 BB 12/20/18 AM 0.02 215 CCL 12/20/18 AM 0.70 4466 CAG 12/20/18 AM 0.56 2414 SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603 WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937 CTAS 12/20/18 PM 1.68 1696 NKE 12/20/18 PM 0.46 9177 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0 Estimate 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage (-144) Conferences & Meetings Economic Indicators & Events Dividends & Splits None Index Changes WRI 1.40 PRA 0.50 MED 0.75 CCMP 0.40 CB 0.73 NDSN 0.35 OMC 0.60 DSW 0.25 ADC 0.56 Bearish Bullish Category One Week Two Weeks One Month Sentiment 0.16 0.33 0.62 Technicals 0.36 0.40 0.52 Fundamental 0.12 0.24 0.55 Overall 0.20 0.31 0.57 Average (all days) 0.13 0.25 0.51 Expected S&P 500 Return (%) Neutral BespokePremium.com For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward 1 Ticker News ABM Beat EPS forecasts by 2 cents (0.58 vs 0.56) on weaker revenues; guided inline. AIR Beat EPS forecasts by 2 cents (0.59 vs 0.57) on inline revenues. CIVI Will be acquired by Centerbridge Partners for $17.75 per share in cash. EIGR FDA grants breakthrough designation for lanafarnib to treat Hutchinson-Gilford syndrome. FANG Sees 28% y/y growth in 2019; will raise dividend by 50%. FB NYT reports that company gave more access to user data than originally disclosed. FDX Beat EPS forecasts by 10 cents (4.03 vs 3.93) on stronger revenues; lowered guidance. GIS Beat EPS forecasts by 4 cents (0.85 vs 0.81) on weaker revenues; reaffirmed guidance. JBL Beat EPS forecasts by 2 cents (0.90 vs 0.88) on stronger revenues; guided inline. LGND Raised full year guidance citing higher material sales. LLY Reaffirmed full year guidance and sees 2019 results ahead of consensus forecasts. MLNX Times of Israel reports that MSFT may be interested in acquiring company. MU Reported inline EPS (2.97) on weaker revenues; lowered guidance on weak demand. NCS Beat EPS forecasts by 2 cents (0.55 vs 0.53) on stronger revenues. SCS Beat EPS forecasts by 6 cents (0.36 vs 0.30) on inline revenues; guided inline. WGO Beat EPS forecasts by 3 cents (0.70 vs 0.67) on stronger revenues. GSK and PFE announce deal to combine consumer health businesses into joint venture.

0 2 MU . e L .6 % MU l f f SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 CAG … · 2019. 9. 23. · SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603 WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937 CTAS 12/20/18 PM

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Page 1: 0 2 MU . e L .6 % MU l f f SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 CAG … · 2019. 9. 23. · SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603 WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937 CTAS 12/20/18 PM

Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

8:30 Philly Fed 15.0 11/15 -7.1 1.06

8:30 Initial Claims 215 12/13 -20 -0.02

8:30 Continuing Claims 1663 12/13 12 -0.02

10:00 Leading Indicators 0.0 11/21 0.0 0.30

Last Report

Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

10:00 Existing Home Sales 5.2 mln 11/21 5.20 5.22 0.02 0.30 Ener Util

10:30 DoE Energy Inventories

14:00 FOMC Rate Decision (+25 bps)

14:30 Powell Press Conference

Last Report

Upgrades

Ticker Firm From To

ACC JP Morgan Underwgt Neutral

BBY Moffett Sell Neutral

BHGE Credit Suisse Neutral Outperf

BLMN M Stanley Underwgt Mkt Wgt

FGEN Citigroup Neutral Buy

SHAK Jefferies Sell Hold

Downgrades

Ticker Firm From To

ADI M Stanley Overwgt Mkt Wgt

ALKS Goldman Neutral Sell

CLB Credit Suisse Outperf Neutral

JPM Atlantic Buy Neutral

MU Needham Buy Hold

MU RBC Capital Outperf Mkt Perf

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm Action Rating

ADSK Stifel Resumed Buy

ANGI SunTrust Initiated Buy

SSTI Baird Initiated Outperf

ULTA Citigroup Initiated Buy

WIX Citigroup Initiated Buy

- Global Equities Higher Ahead of FOMC Meeting.

- FDX Slumps on Earnings After Citing Weak Global Economy.i -0.6 %

i -1.1

h 0.7

h 1.1

Oil 46.42 h $0.2

Gold 1251.3 h $3.7

$/Euro 0.877 i 0.00

$/Yen 112.35 h 0.3

10-Yr 2.82 h 0.02

Japan

China

Germany

UK

Trading Up ($):

GOOGL (6.59), RACE (3.89), TLRY (3.8), PTE (2.55), WGO (2.05), BA (2.05)

Trading Down ($):

FDX (-14.21), AMZN (-3.48), UPS (-3.3), MU (-2.75), FB (-2.36), AXP (-1.41)-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

Today’s Events

Stock Specific News of Note

Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

Tomorrow

Overnight Trading

Analyst Actions

Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

© Copyright 2018, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Earnings Reports

Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs.

ACN 12/20/18 AM 1.86 10547

APOG 12/20/18 AM 0.78 363

BB 12/20/18 AM 0.02 215

CCL 12/20/18 AM 0.70 4466

CAG 12/20/18 AM 0.56 2414

SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788

SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603

WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937

CTAS 12/20/18 PM 1.68 1696

NKE 12/20/18 PM 0.46 9177

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

Estimate

10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage (-144)

Conferences & Meetings

Economic Indicators & Events

Dividends & Splits

None

Index Changes

WRI 1.40 PRA 0.50

MED 0.75 CCMP 0.40

CB 0.73 NDSN 0.35

OMC 0.60 DSW 0.25

ADC 0.56

Bearish Bullish

Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

Sentiment 0.16 0.33 0.62

Technicals 0.36 0.40 0.52

Fundamental 0.12 0.24 0.55

Overall 0.20 0.31 0.57

Average (all days) 0.13 0.25 0.51

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

Neutral

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

Ticker News

ABM Beat EPS forecasts by 2 cents (0.58 vs 0.56) on weaker revenues; guided inline.

AIR Beat EPS forecasts by 2 cents (0.59 vs 0.57) on inline revenues.

CIVI Will be acquired by Centerbridge Partners for $17.75 per share in cash.

EIGR FDA grants breakthrough designation for lanafarnib to treat Hutchinson-Gilford syndrome.

FANG Sees 28% y/y growth in 2019; will raise dividend by 50%.

FB NYT reports that company gave more access to user data than originally disclosed.

FDX Beat EPS forecasts by 10 cents (4.03 vs 3.93) on stronger revenues; lowered guidance.

GIS Beat EPS forecasts by 4 cents (0.85 vs 0.81) on weaker revenues; reaffirmed guidance.

JBL Beat EPS forecasts by 2 cents (0.90 vs 0.88) on stronger revenues; guided inline.

LGND Raised full year guidance citing higher material sales.

LLY Reaffirmed full year guidance and sees 2019 results ahead of consensus forecasts.

MLNX Times of Israel reports that MSFT may be interested in acquiring company.

MU Reported inline EPS (2.97) on weaker revenues; lowered guidance on weak demand.

NCS Beat EPS forecasts by 2 cents (0.55 vs 0.53) on stronger revenues.

SCS Beat EPS forecasts by 6 cents (0.36 vs 0.30) on inline revenues; guided inline.

WGO Beat EPS forecasts by 3 cents (0.70 vs 0.67) on stronger revenues.

GSK and PFE announce deal to combine consumer health businesses into joint venture.

Page 2: 0 2 MU . e L .6 % MU l f f SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 CAG … · 2019. 9. 23. · SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603 WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937 CTAS 12/20/18 PM

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

DBD 12.0 3 3.4 66.7 3.5 66.7

ASNA 8.8 63 -0.1 42.9 -1.0 42.9

AIR 6.6 8 1.1 50.0 0.8 50.0

CATM 6.5 20 -0.2 40.0 1.6 55.0

IRDM

MHLD -10.6 12 1.8 50.0 6.9 58.3

AAOI -9.9 56 -0.2 44.6 0.8 51.8

RCII -9.8 32 1.1 56.3 1.5 59.4

DNR -9.5 112 0.8 57.1 0.3 46.4

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 OS OS

Cons Discret. OS OS

Cons Staples OS N

Energy OS OS

Financials OS OS

Health Care OS N

Industrials OS OS

Materials OS OS

Technology OS OS

Comm. Svcs OS OS

Utilities N OB

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise

Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18

Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

62.0

1.800

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18

Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro N OB

$/Yen N N

2-Year OB OB

10-Year OB OB

Gold OB OB

Silver N N

Copper OS N

Crude Oil OS OS

Heating Oil OS OS

Gasoline OS OS

Natural Gas N OB

OS N OB

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread i -6.2 % -4.0 %10-Day A/D Line i -1700 -156# of Overbought Stocks i 9 66# of Oversold Stocks h 310 211

P/E Ratio Trailing i 17.38 18.00 Forward i 15.58 16.11

Dividend Yield h 2.11 % 2.03 %

Net Earnings Revisions i -17.5 % -13.9 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield h 458 448Corporate Bonds i 148 151

Current One Week Ago

© Copyright 2018, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward2

Ticker Price

None

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

ROL 35.71 -1.98 1.58 100.0

VRSK 111.15 -1.84 0.67 75.0

HUM 292.02 -2.45 2.93 72.7

GPN 101.14 -1.71 1.49 72.7

SYK 161.48 -1.70 0.99 72.2

USB 47.26 -2.81 0.78 71.4

ZTS 84.99 -2.52 0.66 70.0

MSFT 103.97 -1.22 1.46 67.5

INTU 198.13 -1.48 1.54 63.9

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Page 3: 0 2 MU . e L .6 % MU l f f SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 CAG … · 2019. 9. 23. · SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603 WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937 CTAS 12/20/18 PM

Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

1260

1280

1300

1320

6/20 7/19 8/16 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/10

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

1260

1280

1300

1320

6/20 7/19 8/16 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/10

1215

1220

1225

1230

1235

1240

1245

1250

1255

1260

1265

11/28 11/30 12/4 12/6 12/10 12/12 12/14 12/18

200-DMA: 1262

50-DMA: 1235

1259

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

2500

2550

2600

2650

2700

2750

2800

2850

2900

2950

6/19 7/18 8/15 9/13 10/11 11/8 12/10

2500

2550

2600

2650

2700

2750

2800

2850

2900

2950

6/19 7/18 8/15 9/13 10/11 11/8 12/10

2500

2550

2600

2650

2700

2750

2800

11/27 11/29 12/3 12/6 12/10 12/12 12/14 12/18

200-DMA: 2758

50-DMA: 2716

2546

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

6/19 7/18 8/15 9/13 10/11 11/8 12/10

200-DMA: 1610

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

11/27 11/29 12/3 12/6 12/10 12/12 12/14 12/18

50-DMA: 1514

1377

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

135

136

137

138

139

140

141

142

143

144

145

146

6/22 7/23 8/20 9/18 10/16 11/13 12/13

135

136

137

138

139

140

141

142

143

144

145

146

6/22 7/23 8/20 9/18 10/16 11/13 12/13

200-DMA: 141

139.0

140.0

141.0

142.0

143.0

144.0

145.0

11/27 11/29 12/3 12/6 12/10 12/12 12/14 12/18

50-DMA: 139

144

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

6600

6800

7000

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

6/19 7/18 8/15 9/13 10/11 11/8 12/10

6600

6800

7000

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

6/19 7/18 8/15 9/13 10/11 11/8 12/10

50-DMA: 7256

200-DMA: 7506

6600

6725

6850

6975

7100

7225

7350

7475

7600

11/27 11/29 12/3 12/6 12/10 12/12 12/14 12/18

6784

DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

6/19 7/18 8/15 9/13 10/11 11/8 12/10

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

6/19 7/18 8/15 9/13 10/11 11/8 12/10

200-DMA: 10708

9200

9400

9600

9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

11/27 11/29 12/3 12/6 12/10 12/12 12/14 12/18

50-DMA: 10342

9445

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

6/20 7/19 8/16 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/10

45

48

51

54

57

60

63

66

69

72

75

78

6/20 7/19 8/16 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/10

200-DMA: 66

45.00

46.00

47.00

48.00

49.00

50.00

51.00

52.00

53.00

54.00

55.00

11/28 11/30 12/4 12/6 12/10 12/12 12/14 12/18

50-DMA: 60

46

BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1150

1160

1170

1180

1190

1200

1210

1220

6/25 7/23 8/20 9/17 10/15 11/12 12/10

1150

1160

1170

1180

1190

1200

1210

1220

6/25 7/23 8/20 9/17 10/15 11/12 12/10

50-DMA: 1203200-DMA: 1176

1201

1203

1205

1207

1209

1211

1213

1215

1217

11/28 11/30 12/4 12/6 12/10 12/12 12/14 12/18

1207

© Copyright 2018, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward3

Page 4: 0 2 MU . e L .6 % MU l f f SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 CAG … · 2019. 9. 23. · SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603 WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937 CTAS 12/20/18 PM

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2018, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Overview: Headed into the FOMC today, we expect a much less hawkish statement (less economic op-

timism, some acknowledgement of asset price declines and rising volatility, as well as general financial

conditions stress) along with a hike. A “dovish hike” is the absolute consensus from economists, so

we’re not going out on a limb with that prediction! That said, we think it’s unlikely stocks sell off signifi-

cantly in the wake of the release. Positioning is short from a tactical perspective after the breakdown

out of S&P 500 futures’ trading range, and that raises the chances of a rally around a major event like

the 2:00 PM Fed release of its policy decision. Short of a hawkish hike involving a signal tighter policy

(extremely unlikely but at least hypothetically possible), we think markets will move higher post-Fed.

Another reason to expect a tactical

bounce is the extreme oversold

reading recorded at the close yes-

terday in S&P 500 futures. As

shown in the chart at left, markets

have had a hard time keeping

stocks more than 2.5 standard de-

viations from their 50-DMA for

more than a session or two. While

we don’t have a strong view about

the longer-term outlook, the odds

for a bounce are pretty good simp-

ly from a mean reversion perspec-

tive! Incidentally, for a few reasons

the same logic does not apply for

yields, although the ten-year has

bounced from the 2.8% level. Ses-

sion lows from the July 6th and

August 22nd trading sessions were

both less than a basis point from

2.80%. 2.80% also has an im-

portant significance as a nice round

number. If this relatively robust

support level doesn’t hold as it has

this session, there’s additional sup-

port at 2.758% (session lows from

May 29th and 30th) and then again down at 2.715% (lows dating back to March). Turning to crude,

after WTI suffered its worst two-day stretch since the sessions ending February 2nd of 2016 (and the

third-worst two day session of the past five years) Texas Tea is trying to bounce today from the low-

$46 area. Economic Scorecard.

Morning Commentary

S&P 500 Futures: Extreme O/S Readings = Bounces

10 Year Yields: Running Into A Wall?

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

+/- 2.5 std dev from50-DMA

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

3.00

3.10

3.20

3.30

Page 5: 0 2 MU . e L .6 % MU l f f SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 CAG … · 2019. 9. 23. · SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603 WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937 CTAS 12/20/18 PM

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2018, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

5

Japan: There wasn’t that much to dis-

cuss in data overnight, but Japan did up-

date trade data. Consistent with other

data points, Japan is facing weakening

external demand as exports are barely

growing in nominal terms and falling in

real terms. However, imports are surg-

ing: the volume of imported goods to

Japan in the 3 months ended November

was up more than 13% annualized rela-

tive to the three months ended in Au-

gust. While we aren’t dramatically bullish

on all Japanese assets given large export

exposure for many corporations, we do

think USDJPY is getting attractive, and

one of the few short dollar trades that

label applies to. USDJPY has dropped

four straight days. The four day decline is

a very modest 1.13% (surpassed by sev-

eral other sharp drops in the past year)

and even the run of four declines in a

row is relatively unimpressive given a

similar result back in October. As shown

below the crosses’ trend line is now firm-

ly violated.

Morning Commentary

Japanese Exports Flag, But Domestic Demand Is Booming

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50 Nominal Imports 3m/3m Ann., 17.45%

Nominal Exports 3m/3m Ann., 2.73%

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Real Imports 3m/3m Ann., 13.73%

Real Exports 3m/3m Ann., -4.11%

USDJPY: Past Year

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

200-DMA

50-DMA

Page 6: 0 2 MU . e L .6 % MU l f f SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 CAG … · 2019. 9. 23. · SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603 WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937 CTAS 12/20/18 PM

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2018, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

6

IFO: Before moving on, a quick observation about brutal APAC price action overnight: Chinese indices

are once again biased lower as opposed to consolidating. While some local currency indices rallied (and

dramatically so, with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand all up over 1%; Korea, Taiwan, and India also

gained), Chinese indices rolled over and look to be headed to new lows. Given the bearishness about

economic activity in the country and the lack of concrete stimulus plans thus far, the price action

makes a fair bit more sense than other recent Chinese declines, but we would also note that iron ore

traded at the highest levels since mid-November overnight on Singapore’s futures exchange. There-

fore, it’s not all bad for Chinese assets, just mostly so.

Morning Commentary

CSI 300 (Onshore China): Past Year

2900

3100

3300

3500

3700

3900

4100

4300

200-DMA50-DMA

Hang Seng Chinese Enterprises (Offshore China): Past Year

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

14000

200-DMA

50-DMA

Page 7: 0 2 MU . e L .6 % MU l f f SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 CAG … · 2019. 9. 23. · SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603 WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937 CTAS 12/20/18 PM

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2018, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

7

UK Data: UK inflation continues

to moderate, helped by weaker

energy prices. As shown in the

chart at left, the trend for the re-

tail price index is definitely slower

across a variety of growth rates.

The same can be said for the

slightly slower growth rate of the

UK harmonized index of consum-

er prices. This inflation print is

pretty good news for the BoE with

price growth coming in slightly

below what would be considered

aggressive, and the slowing trend

helps the BoE sit on its hands until

there’s more Brexit clarity.

ONS data is more troublesome on

the housing front. While UK home

prices have seen a bump overall

in recent months, London home

prices are now down almost 3%

annualized on a 3m/3m basis

based on the average home price

data. Of course, there’s always a

lot going on under the hood with

these sorts of indices, but it’s very

clear that London’s booming

property market has seen prices

top out for the time being. How

far the fall can be expected to be

will probably depend (as does

most UK economic data these

days) on Brexit, but given that the

government is now discussing

specific plans for a “hard” Brexit

we can’t say we’re surprised one

of the most expensive property

markets on earth is starting to see

more rational pricing!

Morning Commentary UK RPI (SA By Bespoke, Annualized)

UK HICP (SA By Bespoke, Annualized)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

YoY, 3.19%

3m/3m, 3.1%

MoM, 1.99%

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

YoY, 2.31%

3m/3m, 2.33%

MoM, 2.65%

London Home Prices Falling Steadily (3m/3m Ann. %, SA By Bespoke)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

UK Home Prices 3m/3mAnn., 3.1%

London Home Prices3m/3m Ann., -2.84%

Page 8: 0 2 MU . e L .6 % MU l f f SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 CAG … · 2019. 9. 23. · SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603 WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937 CTAS 12/20/18 PM

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2018, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

8

Europe Markets: Italian assets are

surging on news that the Lega-5

Star coalition has received the

blessing of the European Commis-

sion for its budget, and that the

sanctions process would not be

necessary. As shown in the chart

at left, the FTSE MIB is trying to

hurdle its 50-DMA, while Italian

yields are down 15+ bps across

the curve relative to the German

bond markets.

The broader Stoxx 600 is up a bit over half a percent and has been rallying steadily since opening flat

around 4:00 AM EST. No stock is accounting for more than about 5% of the total Stoxx 600 move in

either direction which is a good sign that markets aren’t trading on any specific catalysts. The biggest

positive impact is coming from GlaxoSmithKline where that company and Pfizer will combine consumer

brands in a prelude to a broader breakup of the large conglomerate. Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo is

also high on the list for obvious reasons. Negative impacts are relatively diffuse with only two compa-

nies (ASML, the Dutch semi name at new 52-week lows) and Roche (getting the short end of the stick

from the Glaxo announcement) accounting for more than 1 basis point of the Stoxx 600’s overall per-

formance. Erste Group Bank of Austria reacted very poorly to a Romanian plan to tax banks (typically

foreign) in that country more; Natixis is down thanks to a blown hedge in Asia, costing $260mm EUR.

Morning Commentary

Ticker Name Stoxx 600 Sector Country Price (EUR) Market Cap (bn EUR) % Today Cont. (bps)

GSK LN GlaxoSmithKline PLC Health Care UK 17.25 79.80 7.42 3.49

SAP GY SAP SE Technology Germany 89.33 108.19 1.80 1.15

RDSA NA Royal Dutch Shell PLC Oil & Gas Netherlands 25.43 208.10 0.81 1.00

ISP IM Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Banks Italy 2.06 34.76 3.98 0.81

BHP LN BHP Group PLC Basic Resources Austria 18.34 100.52 1.31 0.78

DTE GY Deutsche Telekom AG Telecommunications Germany 15.39 71.95 1.62 0.69

MC FP LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE Personal & Household Goods France 254.30 127.28 0.91 0.68

BAS GY BASF SE Chemicals Germany 60.61 54.78 1.93 0.62

RIO LN Rio Tinto PLC Basic Resources UK 42.00 70.85 1.49 0.62

HSBA LN HSBC Holdings PLC Banks UK 7.25 144.37 0.72 0.62

Ticker Name Stoxx 600 Sector Country Price (EUR) Market Cap (bn EUR) % Today Cont. (bps)

NOVOB DC Novo Nordisk A/S Health Care Denmark 40.20 98.92 -0.43 -0.25

BAYN GY Bayer AG Health Care Germany 62.88 59.06 -0.84 -0.29

ABI BB Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Food & Beverage Belgium 60.67 123.09 -0.48 -0.34

DSV DC DSV A/S Industrial Goods & Services Denmark 61.04 12.08 -5.00 -0.36

KN FP Natixis SA Banks France 4.17 14.03 -6.27 -0.52

BATS LN British American Tobacco PLC Personal & Household Goods UK 28.09 65.58 -1.61 -0.62

EBS AV Erste Group Bank AG Banks Austria 29.97 13.98 -7.87 -0.65

DPW GY Deutsche Post AG Industrial Goods & Services Germany 24.14 31.32 -4.47 -0.82

ASML NA ASML Holding NV Technology Netherlands 138.66 61.76 -3.13 -1.14

ROG SE Roche Holding AG Health Care Switzerland 215.24 187.72 -1.12 -1.23

Stoxx 600 Best & Worst Performers Today10 Biggest Positive Contributors To Stoxx 600 Change

10 Biggest Negative Contributors To Stoxx 600 Change

FTSE MIB (Italy): Past Year

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

200-DMA

50-DMA

Page 9: 0 2 MU . e L .6 % MU l f f SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 CAG … · 2019. 9. 23. · SAFM 12/20/18 AM -1.28 788 SCHL 12/20/18 AM 2.16 603 WBA 12/20/18 AM 1.44 33937 CTAS 12/20/18 PM

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2018, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

9

US Data: Mortgage purchase applications dropped notably WoW; we’ll have more in our Fixed Income

Weekly later this morning. In addition to the Fed, we also have current account balance and existing

home sales data today in the US, and CPI up in Canada. Economic scorecard.

Morning Commentary

Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart

S&P 500 2559.00 82.7 -362.5 Gold 1251.60 -16.0 8.8

Russell 1388.20 98.2 -471.5 Silver 14.73 19.7 -74.1

VIX Fut 21.67 -138.8 545.0 WTI 46.52 60.6 -914.1

TSX 870.30 68.3 -169.4 Copper 268.05 60.0 -302.1

2 Year 265.21 0.8 -12.0 Nikkei 20987.92 -60.4 -284.6

5 Year 265.09 0.5 -11.7 CSI 300 3091.13 -119.2 -250.7

10 Year 281.74 0.0 -9.2 ASX 200 5580.60 -15.9 -129.0

30 Year 306.93 0.2 -8.0 Stoxx 600 342.25 52.6 -221.4

2s10s 16.32 -0.8 2.8 BBG USD 1205.45 -15.2 -13.9

5s30s 41.67 -0.3 3.7 EURUSD 1.1399 33.4 26.4

5 Yr BE 158.28 0.1 156.7 USDJPY 112.35 -15.1 -83.0

10 Yr BE 181.62 0.0 179.8 EM FX 62.15 -4.3 -29.2

Mar '19 97.29 0.5 8.0 CDX IG 80.16 0.5 2.2

Jun '19 97.26 1.0 11.5 iTraxx IG 81.26 1.0 -0.7

Sep '19 97.24 1.0 13.5 CDX HY 423.63 1.0 12.3

Dec '19 97.21 0.5 15.5 iTraxx HY 337.34 0.5 4.5

Euro

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