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Civil violence in Iraq

Iraqi civilian deaths by month from 2003

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Violence in Iraq

The percentage of attacks on Iraqis increased in 2005-2006

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• Context– Divided between Maronite Christians, Druze, Sunni, and Shi’a– National Pact established confessional system (6/5 Christian-Muslim ratio in

parliament; Christian President, Sunni PM)– Growing numbers of Muslims, especially Shi’a in the South

• Early confrontations– PLO had moved to Lebanon and settled around the Palestinian refugee camps;

launched guerilla attacks at Israel– Phalange was determined to get rid of the PLO and attacked them in 1975 – Christians and Muslims began expelling each other from different parts of Lebanon

• External intervention– Syrian intervention– Israel invaded in 1982, putting Beirut under siege – A multinational force landed to help restore some order– The new Lebanese President asked for Syrian help to come and restore order– Iran funded new Shi’a militias

• Taif Accord– Arab League brought the old Lebanese parliament to design a new system in 1989– Gave more power to the Muslim Prime Minister, changed the 6/5 ratio to a 5/5 ratio– Christian rebellion against the Taif Accord

Lebanese Civil War 1975-1990

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Political map of Lebanon

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Confessional map of Lebanon

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Lebanon after the siege of Beirut (1983)

Syrian-controlled

Israeli-controlled

Christian-controlled

UN-controlled

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• Upheaval in the Sudan– Sudan became independent at the time of the Suez crisis in 1956– After a series of military coups the country was led by Jafar Numeyri for 16 years– Coup deposes Numeyri in 1985, which was followed by elections and a coalition

government led by Sadiq al-Mahdi– Omar al-Bashir took power in a military coup in 1989– Al-Bashir dissolved parliament and formed an alliance with Hasan al-Turabi, the leader

of the National Islamic Front; focused on reintroducing shari’a

• The civil war– Race cleavages between the North and the South– Began in with a Southern rebellion 1962-1972 (Round 1)– Oil is discovered in the South in 1978—not exported until 1999– Round 2 breaks out in 1983, led by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)

and John Garang– Shari’a is imposed in the country in 1983 by President Numeyri– Almost 2 million civilians killed in Southern Sudan

• The road to peace– By 2003, competing rebel forces agree to unite in their fight against the government – After 2 years of bargaining, a peace deal was signed in Nairobi in January 2005– The deal provides for a high degree of autonomy for the South, and an equal sharing

of Southern oil revenues between Khartoum and the Southern provinces

Civil Wars in the Sudan 1962-72; 1983-2005

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Sudan’s diverse geography

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Regions of the Sudan

Darfur

North Sudan

South Sudan

Other contested regions

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• What do Arabs care about?– Mainly the same things everyone cares about– Role of religion– Role of politics– Domestic vs. Arab issues including Palestine– Attitudes toward other countries

• What does civil society look like in the Middle East?– Born out a sense of crisis– Social demands are not met by existing regimes; sense of insecurity– Increasing number of NGOs, professional groups/labor unions, political parties (which

look more like civil society groups in many cases)– Historically strong civil societies in Egypt, Lebanon, Iran, Turkey – Should Islamist groups be considered part of civil society?

Civil society in the Middle East

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• What is its potential for creating liberty?– Strengthens the role of the individual vs. the state over time– Civil society is currently where most of the liberal political discourse is taking place– Helps circulate ideas– Creates an organizational platform for mobilizing on behalf of political demands– Regimes are losing control over the flow of information

• What is its potential for supporting existing regimes?– Government creation of groups that it can effectively monitor (corporatism)– Laws governing registration, public gatherings, reports, division into separate ministries– A less “costly” way for regimes to maintain control—use civil society instead of

violence

• Media freedom– Traditionally very restricted media; starting to open up with public debates in forums

like al-Jazeera, but journalists have often been harassed and jailed – Overall, an increasing appetite for debate

The effects of civil society on regimes

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• Surveillance, imprisonment, torture– Surveillance by mukhabarat – Political imprisonment is common – Torture is commonplace in some regimes (ex: tazmamart)

• Women’s rights– Wide variation in women’s freedoms– Institutionalized cultural discrimination on gender roles– Political issues: can they vote? run for political office? can they travel?

• Religious rights– Christian minorities– Jewish, Baha’i minorities

• Increasing number of openings but they often do not last– More human rights organizations around than ever before because of:

a) domestic civil society pressuresb) effective pressure by international organizations

Key human rights issues in the Middle East

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Key lecture terms—October 17 and 19

Saddam Hussein

Ayatollah Khomeini

Shatt al-Arab

Halabjah

UN Special Commission on Disarmament (UNSCOM)

Oil for Food Program

Civil Society

Corporatism

Diwaniyya

Qat chew

Al-Jazeera

Mukhabarat

Tazmamart

Green line

Maronites

Hizbullah

Siege of Beirut

Taif Accords

Michel Aoun

Omar al-Bashir

Hasan al-Turabi

John Garang

Nairobi peace accords

Darfur

Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)

Berbers