Upload
elisabeth-hopkins
View
218
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
Financial and Market Risks for Space Launch Providers
Presented by:
Charlie PrecourtATK Aerospace Systems
www.atk.com
Space Transportation Policy and Market Risks – Space Policy Institute November 16, 2011 – George Washington University
2
Overarching Considerations for Launchers
Physics Very Challenging and Unchanging
• Operating environments extreme. Temperatures, loads, pressures, and rapid variations of these conditions lead to highly costly systems solutions.
• Dramatic Advances in propulsion and materials properties elusive, yet necessary to dramatically lower the costs of “managing the physics”
Market Relatively Small
• Flight rates much greater than six per year are rarely achieved for any sizable launch system
− Difficult to recoup development costs, resulting in high unit cost in proportion and infrastructure carrying costs high on a per flight basis
− Managing market risks exacerbates business model: flight losses, indemnification, payload or system delays/stand-downs, manifesting challenges
Broad set of mission requirements – Attributes sought often mutually exclusive
• LEO vs. GTO design
• Low payload weight or volume vs. heavy or large volume
• Low cost: per pound, per flight, or per year
– Multiple designs required/emerge to meet the wide spectrum of all customer needs.
– Synergies remain a challenge; yet where found and exploited, can reduce LV financial and market risks
• Customer: government vs. commercial
• Safety, reliability and availability
• Cargo/satellite vs. human rated
Consequences
Consequences
3
Launch Industry Snapshot
Difficult Business Case
• Difficult to forecast market
• Limited customer base
• Launch and payload schedule slips
• Limited competition
• Difficult for new entrants
• 18 U.S. launches in 2011; only one was commercially-funded
Key • Yellow – 0-3 month slip• Orange – 3-6 month slip• Brown – 6- 12 month slip• Red – 1 year or more slip
Date Vehicle Mission Location Funded
U.S. Launches in 2011
Jan. 20 Delta IV NROL-49 VAFB Gov –A.F.
Feb 6 Minotaur I NROL-66 VAFB Gov – NRO
Feb 23 Shuttle STS-133 KDC Gov –NASA
March 4 Taurus Glory VAFB Gov - NASA
Feb. 27 Shuttle STS-134 KSC Gov - NASA
March 5 Atlas V OTV 2 CCAFS Gov – A.F.
March 11 Delta IV NROL-27 CCAFS Gov – NRO
April 15 Atlas V NROL-34 VAFB Gov – NRO
May 7 Atlas V SBIRS GEO1 CCAFS Gov - DoD
Jun 10 Delta II SAC-D VAFB Commercial
June 30 Minotaur I ORS 1 Wallops Gov –A.F.
July 8 Shuttle STS-135 KSC Gov – NASA
July 16 Atlas V GPS 2F-2 CCAFS Gov –A.F.
Aug. 5 Atlas V Juno CCAFS Gov - NASA
Sept 10 Delta II GRAIL CCAFS Gov - NASA
Sept 27 Minotaur 4 TacSat4 KLC Gov – ORS
Oct 28 Delta II NNP VAFB Gov - NASA
Nov 25 Atlas V MSL CCAFS Gov - NASA
Dec 19 Falcon 9 Dragon C2 CCAFS Gov - NASA
In 2011 there were a total of 48 international launches (with 3 failures); 10 of those were commercially-funded.
4
Summary
• U.S. launch industry faces many challenges
• Industrial base has been dramatically affected by market realities in recent years
• Opportunities exist for improved business practices to lead to a sustainable launch industry
• Leverage lessons learned from DoD and NASA development programs
• Ensure business case closes for new vehicle developments before “launching” into them
• Leverage existing assets, workforce and infrastructure wherever practical
• Emphasize the importance of continuous improvement in reliability, safety, manufacturability, performance, launch availability, and system costs
4