8/7/2019 01-29-08 NYT-High Enthusiasm Propels Democrats by ROBIN TONE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/01-29-08-nyt-high-enthusiasm-propels-democrats-by-robin-tone 1/2

53421616.doc Page 1 of 2

January 29, 2008

High Enthusiasm Propels DemocratsBy ROBIN TONER

WASHINGTON The race for the Democratic presidential nomination may have itsdivisive moments, but it is generating intense interest and enthusiasm among theparty’s rank and file: significantly greater, by several measures, than the Republicancontest, political experts say.

In the first four contests in which both parties have competed, the Democrats haveset records for turnout and substantially exceeded the Republican showing,according to state parties and state election tallies.

In South Carolina on Saturday, for example, more than 530,000 Democrats voted,nearly twice the Democratic turnout of 2004, and nearly 20 percent higher than theRepublican vote the week before.

Other indicators of an enthusiasm gap show up in polls, with more Democrats thanRepublicans reporting excitement about voting this year and a strong commitment totheir candidate, according to recent New York Times/CBS News polls. Democraticpresidential candidates have also regularly out-raised the Republicans in campaigncash.

“The Democrats are having an extraordinary year in terms of raising money,” saidAnthony J. Corrado Jr., a professor of government at Colby College in Waterville, Me.,and an expert on campaign finance.

The meaning of all this for the November election, however, is a matter of dispute.

Democratic leaders argue that it points to a united, enthusiastic party that canexpand the map of Democratic victories. Scott Brennan, chairman of the IowaDemocratic Party, said that three times as many Iowans shifted their registration tothe Democratic Party on caucus day as shifted to the Republicans.

“It says people are very tired of Bush administration policies,” Mr. Brennan said. “Andthe Democratic candidates really energize people. People were excited to get out tothe caucuses.”

Some Republicans dismiss that Democratic energy as typical for a party out of powerfor eight years, and argue that it augurs little for the general election.

Richard N. Bond, former chairman of the Republican National Committee and alobbyist, said there was no reason for his party to “hit the panic button.” A nominee

will emerge in his party, Mr. Bond said, and present a clear enough contrast to theDemocratic nominee that “it will reinvigorate the entire Republican operation.”

Alluding to the possibility of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Democraticnominee, Mr. Bond added, “No one has the capacity to put the band back togetheragain as much as she has.”

Republican Party analysts also note that both Ronald Reagan and the senior GeorgeBush were elected after Republican primaries in which turnout was lower than in theDemocratic primaries.

8/7/2019 01-29-08 NYT-High Enthusiasm Propels Democrats by ROBIN TONE

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/01-29-08-nyt-high-enthusiasm-propels-democrats-by-robin-tone 2/2

53421616.doc Page 2 of 2

“Democrats seem to frequently ignore the lessons of history, and they do so in 2008at their own peril,” said Alex Conant, a spokesman for the Republican NationalCommittee.

The sheer intensity of the Democratic primary battle could be problematic over thelong haul. Outside analysts say that the sharp disputes and deepening divisionsbetween Senator Barack Obama and Mrs. Clinton could, if not resolved, leave some

voters disenchanted if their candidate did not prevail.

“That’s a real question: Will the Democrats come away with a more divided, lessupbeat set of constituents following the struggle between Obama and HillaryClinton?” said Andrew Kohut, head of the Pew Research Center.

Geoffrey Garin, a Democratic pollster, said, “There’s obviously a heated battle goingon in the Democratic Party, but this is not a party at war with itself. It’s not just aslogan to say there’s a lot more that unites Democrats than divides them, and that’snot clear at all with the Republicans.”

In a New York Times/CBS News poll after the New Hampshire primary, but before thedebates of recent days, there was no significant difference between Mr. Obama’ssupporters and Mrs. Clinton’s in terms of their commitment. About 6 in 10 of eachcandidate’s supporters said their minds were made up. In a separate question, about7 in 10 of the supporters of each candidate said they “strongly favored” theircandidate.

For now, Democrats say they are elated at the overall energy among their voters.Democratic turnout set a record in the Iowa caucuses of about 239,000, twice theRepublican turnout, and nearly twice the Democratic turnout four years ago. In NewHampshire, nearly 290,000 people voted in the Democratic primary, well above theRepublican’s and the Democrat’s own turnout four years ago.

In Nevada, more than 117,000 voted in the Democratic caucuses compared with9,000 who participated in 2004 and more than 44,000 voted in the Republicancaucuses.

And in South Carolina, Democratic turnout was so high that some Democrats said the

state might be in play in November. That is an extremely optimistic idea, given thatthe last time a Democrat carried South Carolina was 32 years ago, when JimmyCarter won it.

Analysts offer a variety of explanations for the Democratic excitement. Both of thefront-runners offer the prospect of a historic first, breaking the line of either color orsex. Disenchantment with President Bush and the direction of the country remainshigh, and change is a priority with Democrats and many independents, polls show.

Whatever the reason, a recent Pew survey found that 4 in 10 Americans said theyfound the Democratic contest “very interesting,” nearly double the percentage (21percent) who described the Republican race as “very interesting.” Young people wereunusually interested, the poll found. Within the parties, 57 percent of the Democratssaid the Democratic campaign was “very interesting,” while only 32 percent of the

Republicans found their party’s contest that engaging.“I think it’s real,” said Gary C. Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego, of the energy gap. “Turnout and various poll data suggestDemocrats are more eager to vote and happier with their choice set thanRepublicans. I think it reflects an eagerness to get the Bush administration behindthem.”

In fact, the biggest applause line at Obama and Clinton events is often a reminderthat Mr. Bush’s days in office are dwindling.