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8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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CLIMATE CHANGE
AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM
CLIMATE CHANGE
AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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Viet Nam is considered as one of the most vulnerable
countries due to CC and sea level rise. If sea level rise of 1 m, Viet Nam will loose about 12% of
land, 23% of population will be affected.
Typhoons occur more frequently with higher intensity.
Temperature increases and change in rainfall pattern will
affect agriculture and water resources.
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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1 m
2 m
3 m
4 m
5 m
WB 2007
Impacts of sea level rise
Large percentage ofVietnams population and
economic activities are
located in these two river
deltas. 14% of Vietnampopulation would be
impacted by a 1m SLR. This
is the largest percentage of
impacted population among
all 84 countries. Vietnam
impacted population would
reach 35% with a 5m SLR.The impact of SLR on
Vietnams GDP and urban
extent follow the impact on
its population.
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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Inundation in Mekong River Delta
due to 1 m Sea Level Rise
Source: HMS
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Annual average temperatureincreases about 0.10C per decade.In some summer months,temperature increases about 0.1-0.3oC per decade.
Source: Vietnam National communication
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
2
1
3 4
O
C
Year
Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time
step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of Temperature at A Luoi
station.
Annual temperature
Climate Change in VietnamClimate Change in Vietnam
More heavy
rainfalls
causing severe
floods; Rainfall
decreases in
dry season
(Jul., Aug.) andincreases in
rainy season
(Sep. to Nov.).1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
2
1
3 4
mm
Year
Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average(time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of August-
December rainfall at A Luoi station.
Rainfall of Aug.-Dec.
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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Typhoon trajectory moves southward
and typhoon season shifts to later
months of the year;
Climate Change in VietnamClimate Change in Vietnam
Cumulative tracks of tropical cyclones (19852005)
[Nicholls et al.., 2007]
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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High floods occur more frequently in the Central
and Southern Vietnam.
Drought happen every year in most regions of theDrought happen every year in most regions of thecountry.country.
Climate Change in VietnamClimate Change in Vietnam
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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ENSO has stronger effects
on weather regime and
climatic features in variousareas of Viet Nam;
Sea level rises from 2.5-3
cm per decade in the last
century.
Climate Change VietnamClimate Change Vietnam
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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Vulnerability of delta dwelling populations
[Source: Nicholls et al., 2007]
Impacts on Coastal ZoneImpacts on Coastal Zone
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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Impacts ofImpacts of
Climate ChangeClimate Change
Public
Health
Environ
ment
Tourism Energy
Forestry
Agriculture
Water
Respurses
Climate
Change
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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Impact on AgricultureImpact on Agriculture
Shift of planting boundary: By 2070s,tropical trees/ crops would be able to growat the altitude 100-550 meters higher andmove 100-200 km northwards compared to
present. Large areas in Mekong and Red River deltas
would be under salt water due to sea levelrise.
Yield of rice decreaseYield of rice decreaseby 10% for every 1by 10% for every 1ooCC
increase in growingincrease in growing
season minimumseason minimum
temperaturetemperature (IPCC AR4WG2TS, 2007)
Source: Vietnam
National
communication
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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Impacts on Water ResourcesImpacts on Water Resources
Instability in rainfall would causemore severe floods in rainy seasonand droughts in dry season.
Increase in frequency and intensity
of typhoons, storms would causehigh floods & inundation, flashfloods, landslide and erosion.
Increasing water shortage and
growing water demand threatenwater supply, water use conflicts.
Source: Vietnam National communication
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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Impacts on ForestryImpacts on Forestry
Decrease of mangrove forest,due to sea level rise.
Forest with drought standvarieties would increase due to
low soil moisture and high
evapotranspiration.
Biodiversity degradation:extinction of endangered
species;
Increasing risk of forest fire; Increase and wide spread ofplant pests and diseases.
Source: Vietnam National communication
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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Impacts on Aquaculture & FisheriesImpacts on Aquaculture & Fisheries
Sea level rise would reduce freshwater creatures in rivers &
estuaries, high temperature reduce high valuable sub-tropicalfishes;
Habitat loss for young creatures
due to mangrove decrease; Reducing sea products
productivity and commercialquality due to:
Migration of fishes;
Reduction of body weight.
Source: Vietnam National communication
8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam
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Impacts on Coastal ZoneImpacts on Coastal Zone
Large areas of the Mekong, Red Riverdeltas and Central coastal zone wouldbe inundated due to sea level rise.
Coastal & estuarine wetlands wouldbe affected due to frequent floods,severe drought & salinity (Ca Mau,Ho Chi Minh City, Vung Tau and
Nam Dinh) Livelihood of coastal population will
be affected by more severe storms,
flood, drought and sea level rise.Projections for a 1 m sea level rise: 15,000-
20,000 km2 of Mekong River delta flooded,
affecting 3.5 to 5 million people, respectively.IPCC AR4, 2007
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Impacts on Energy, TransportationImpacts on Energy, Transportation
Oil, gas platforms would beaffected by typhoons, storms;
Seaports and roads designedbasing on historical sea levelwould be affected.
Less energy generation due to drought ;
Unstable flow regimes may lead to conflict in waterregulation at hydropower stations. More energy consumption for due to high temperature and
humidity.Source: Vietnam National communication
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Impacts on Human Health
Negative Impact Positive
Impact
Very high confidence
Malaria: contraction and expansion,
changes in transmission season
High confidence
Increase in malnutrition
Increase in the number of people suffering
from deaths, disease and injuries fromextreme weather events
Increase in the frequency of cardio-respiratory
diseases from changes in air quality
Change in the range of infectious disease vector
Reduction of cold-related deaths
Medium confidence
Increase in the burden of diarrheal diseases