Lecture 1:

Introduction

Prof. Dan Sperling

September 27, 2012Fall Quarter 2012

Energy and Environmental Aspects of Transportation

Civil and Environmental Engineering (ECI) 163Environmental Science and Policy (ESP) 163

Big Themes 1. Key overarching issues

• Are we running out of oil?• Are oil companies evil and conspiring to keep oil prices high?• Who really killed the electric car and is blocking the switch to alternative fuels?• Is climate change real and what should we do?• Is air pollution a severe problem?• Is technology the solution to energy, air pollution, and climate problems?• Do benefits of cars outweigh costs?

2. Key policy design issues• If can’t measure it, you can’t manage it (methodological and data issues)• Role of causality—esp for AQ and climate change• Who should be made responsible for solving a problem—keeping in mind

jurisdictional challenges (who’s in charge and can do something about it)• Market based approaches vs regulatory and voluntary instruments

3. Systems challenges: how to coordinate responses to different parts of a system (eg, switching to electric cars)? Before automakers sell EVs, they need to be sure that electricity companies will build recharging stations, while electricity companies want EVs to be sold in large numbers before they invest in electricity charging, and policymakers need to create incentives for both car and energy companies to make their risky investments. All these policies and investments must happen concurrently. A similar story is true for other fuels and vehicles.

Outline

• Introduction

• Motivation for course on transportation and environment

• Overview of course topicsI. Problems and Challenges– Air quality

– Energy

– Climate change

II. Technologies, Strategies, and Solutions– Vehicles

– Fuels

– Mobility

– Freight

Introduction

• Who are we?– Instructor:

Prof. Dan SperlingProfessor, Civil and Environmental Engineering

Professor, Environmental Science and Policy

Director, Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis)

Board member, California Air Resources Board

– Teaching assistants:

Sydney Vergis , Kevin Fang, Brigitte DrillerTransportation gGraduate students, UC-Davis

Introduction• Logistics

– Lecture: • Tuesdays and Thursdays, 1:40 - 3:00pm

• Location: 179 Chemistry

– Smartsite:• All course

materials, readings, etc.

smartsite.ucdavis.edu

Introduction

• Logistics– Email:

• Prof. Sperling: dsperling@ucdavis.edu• Sydney Vergis savergis@ucdavis.edu• Brigitte Driller bkdriller@ucdavis.edu• Kevin Fang kfang@ucdavis.edu

– Office hours:• Prof. Sperling: T 3:15-5:30, By appt. 2027

Academic Surge• Sydney Vergis: Tues 9-11AM 2143 Wickson• Brigitte Driller: Wed 10:30-12:30 2143 Wickson• Kevin Fang Thur 12:10-1:30 2143 Wickson

Introduction

• Course details– Grading components:

• 3 papers (13% each): 3 pages each, on assigned topics

• 4 quizzes (8% each)

• Final exam (29%): Dec 10

– Course readings• See course schedule for readings for each class

• Readings are posted at course website

– Assignments• Due midnight of posted due date

• To be uploaded at course website

• Late assignments assessed 5% penalty per day late.

Course Motivation

PROBLEMS

• Air Quality– Local air quality

– Health impacts of pollution

• Energy– Oil prices, costs of travel and goods transport

– Oil imports, security, geopolitics

• Climate Change– Environmental, economic impacts

– Currently active policy area (e.g. California’s AB 32, low carbon fuel standard)

SOLUTIONS: technology, behavior, and policy

• Vehicles

• Fuels

• Mobility

• Freight

September 25, 2008 9

This Course is Relatively Simple!

Vehicle Ownership is Soaring—Resulting in Increased Fuel Use, Pollution, and GHG

Emissions

Source: Sperling and Gordon, 2009

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Nu

mb

er o

f M

oto

r V

ehic

les

(Bil

lio

ns)

Cycles & Scooters

Trucks & Buses

Cars

The Problem?!

Transportation Plays Large Role in Climate Change and Oil Security (and AQ)

21%

23%

28%

38%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

E.U.

Worldwide

U.S.

California

Direct share* transport CO2 emissions

Transportation accounts for 2/3 of oil used in US

and ½ in world

EIA, 2006

Transportation accounts for ¼ of CO2 emissions in world

Transportation accounts for ~1/2 of urban air

pollution

Air Quality• Our automobile emissions (e.g., CO, HC, NOx, Pb) are

far lower than in 1970.

• Yet local air quality problems still persist….

Petroleum Dependence

• Every U.S. President since the 1970s has sought to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.

• Yet we are increasingly dependent on imports….

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1999 2004

Year

Pet

role

um

use

in

th

e U

.S.

(th

ou

san

d b

arre

ls/d

ay)

Domestic production

Imported petroleum

30% imported

60% imported

To stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration, need to decarbonize the energy system at several times the historical

rate of 0.3%/y. Even if electric sector is completely decarbonized by 2100, stabilization at 550 (450) ppm => 3

(5) fold reduction in carbon emissions from direct fuel use vs. IS92a.

450

550

350 ppm

750 ppm

Bil

lio

n t

on

s o

f C

O2

(glo

bal

) The Climate Change Challenge

Some scientists now say 350 ppm is

necessary to avoid catastrophic climate

change

Transforming TransportationTransforming Transportation

• Transforming vehicles • Transforming fuels • Transforming mobility

Vehicle Efficiency

• Efficiency of automobiles improves every year.

• Yet our fuel economy is just beginning to improve….

15

20

25

30

35

40

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Model year

Fu

el e

con

om

y (m

pg

)

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

Veh

icle

eff

icie

ncy

(t

on

-mp

g)

Efficiency

Fuel Economy

Alternative Fuels

• Transportation is 96% fueled by petroleum.

• Yet there are many available alternative fuel technologies with lower environmental impacts…

GM’s Volt (Plug-in Hybrid)

Honda FCX Clarity (hydrogen fuel cell)

Volkswagen Jetta (Diesel)

Nissan Leaf (Battery Electric)

Growth in Travel, Mobility

• We have experienced exponential growth in travel.

• Can we continue to do so at the same rate?

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Km

/day

-cap

10-1

10-2

100

101

102

Met

er/d

ay-

cap

100,000

10,000

1,000

100

10

All modes

Buses + cars

Rail

2-Wheelers

Horses

Air

TGV

Railways

Waterways

Passenger travel by mode (per day per capita, France)

Source: Grubler, IIASA, 2002

Transportation and Land Use

• SOV Cars dominate in US passenger transport system (and increasingly elsewhere)

• Government policies support highways and suburban development

Pisarski, 2007

Major Policy Trends

Air

Quality

Energy

Climate Change

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

• Clean Air Acts (automobile emission regulations)

• Diesel truck emission standards

• Energy Tax Act (ethanol subsidy), biofuel mandates

• California vehicle emission standards

• California vehicle CO2 standard

• Low carbon fuel standards

• Calif. zero-emission vehicle mandate

U.S. policy precedents for transportation and the environment:

• Energy Policy Conservation Act (automobile fuel economy)

• Fuel requirements (lead, sulfur, oxygenates)

• California land use/VMT

Externalities• What are they?

– Impacts (costs or benefits) not directly involved in an economic decision• Why do we care?

– Sometimes the free market system does not fully account for all economic costs and benefits to society

– This can result in socially sub-optimal results• Transportation examples: air pollution, petroleum dependence, congestion,

climate change

FirmConsumer

Goods

Money

Consumption

External impacts on others not involved in economic decision

Production

Dealing with Externalities

• For example, if a factory is manufacturing a product that pollutes a river…– Direct economic approach – Downstream residents could get

together, pay polluter to stop polluting

– Command and control approach – Government could ban (or restrict) river pollution, enforce with heavily armed river boat patrols (or with environmental protection agencies)

– “Pigouvian” tax – Government could tax polluters in accordance with the social costs they generate

– Marketable permits – Government could issue “pollution permits,” allow the polluters to trade them to achieve pollution reduction at lowest cost

– “Socialist” approach – If pollution is industrial, the industry could be nationalized, run in a socially profitable way

September 25, 2008 24

Evolution of Transportation Monoculture

1859 First U.S. oil well discovered

First internal combustion engine car built by Karl Benz

1885

1908 Model T (with ICE) debuts

U.S. transit ridership reaches highest peacetime levels

1926

1930 Car ownership reaches 200 for every 1000 Americans

Suburban building boom begins following World War II

1947

1956 U.S. Interstate Highway System launched

Arab oil embargo constricts supply 1973

1979 Iran-Iraq war doubles oil prices

First hybrid-electric cars sold in U.S. 2000

2003 Car ownership reaches 1.15 vehicles per American driver

Motor vehicle population worldwide exceeds 1 billion

2005

2008 Crude hits $140 a barrel

Conclusions

• Trends point toward more travel and more energy-intensive modes of travel

• These transportation trends have consequences– Air quality impacts

– Petroleum dependence

– Climate change impacts

• These externalities are problems, but solvable problems that can be addressed with technology and policy solutions

These trends – and the strategies to reverse them – are why courses like this are so important!