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EPIA Market Expecta/on for the Long Term – again too Pessimis/c?
Paris, 6th Market Outlook, 18 March 2010
Winfried Hoffmann EPIA Vice President
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2 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
Content
• Expectations for PV growth in EU and worldwide
• Trends in PV system price development
• PV outpacing traditional electricity production in the medium (peak power, CCS) and long run (base load)
• Results are based on # EPIA „PV market outlook“ 2011 (-2015) # EPIA/AT Kearney/Consentec study: „PV competing in the energy sector“ # EPIA/Greenpeace „Solar Generation VI“ # own estimates
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3 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
16.7 GW
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4 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
Our position in 2010… installed capacity EU27
• Uncertainties on gas and coal, PV ahead of all RES
15,602
13,323
9,295
4,056
573 405 208 200 149 145 25 25 0 0
-107 -1550
-45 -26 -535 -245
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000 Power generation capacities added in 2010 in EU27
decommissioned
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5 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
The market in 2010
2010 2009 2006 2007 2008 2005 2001 2002 2003 2004
0.47
2.51
6.17
7.20
16.7
1.44 1.12 0.58
1.58 0.33
+59%
+145%
+17%
+132%
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6 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
World split in 2010
ROW
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7 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
The top 10 in 2009 and 2010 (MW) worlwide
2009 2010 1 Germany 3.806 Germany 7.700 2 Italy 723 Italy 2.300 3 Japan 483 Czech Rep 1.360 4 USA 477 Japan 990 5 Czech Rep 398 USA 900 6 Belgium 285 France 719 7 China 160-228 Spain 367 8 France 185 Belgium 361 9 South Korea 167 Australia 320
10 Australia 79 China 300-520
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8 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
Cumulated installed capacity until 2010
39.6 GW
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9 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
Cumulative installed capacity 2010
GW countries:
Germany Italy
Spain Japan
USA Czech Republic
France China in 2011 ?
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10 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
An outlook to 2011
849 1062 414 667 750 1000
8655
13815
1050
1250
2250
3500
EPIA Moderate EPIA Policy Driven
2011
0
5000
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15000
20000
25000
NORTH AM Japan EU China APEC ROW
14 GW
21.3 GW
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11 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
An outlook into 2015
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12 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
EU forecasts until 2015
13523
52 94 139 199 707 1005 983 1950
5130 5625
13815 12850
15980
17560
19450
8655 7420 7525 7935 8920
0
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Historical Data
EPIA Policy Driven
EPIA Moderate
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13 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
Global Forecasts until 2015
Neither the worst nor the best are sure…
16928
280 331 471 581 1119 1439 1581 2513
6168 7263
21300
24200
31900
35500
43000
14000 15700 18400 20000
23200
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EPIA Moderate
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14 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
Share of EU vs World
0
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPIA Moderate EPIA Policy Driven
ROW NORTH AM Japan EU China APEC
From 62 to 40% From 65 to 45%
Coming from 81% in 2010 …
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15 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
If this goes too far…
• 2 futures… Moderate and Policy-driven
• In 2011, in the Moderate scenario • Oversupply could bring the prices down • Market restart in second part of the year • OR if the market is really low, and prices are going quite low • Grid parity could be reached very fast, • With risk of overheat thereafter …
• In the Policy-driven scenario • Slight oversupply compensated during the 2nd part of the year • Reasonable path to grid parity
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16 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
Consultants thoughts… (market development)
• … there is general consensus among most
0
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPIA Policy-driven 2010
EPIA Moderate 2011
EPIA Policy-Driven 2011
NREAP
Sarasin 2010/12
Photon 2010
Yole realistic 2010/09
Yole optimistic 2010/09
McK High 2010/06
iSupply 2010/10
Lux research 2010/03
TrendForce 2010/12
iSupply new
Navigant
EUPD
IMS Research
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17 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
And the SET for 2020 targets
0
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40000
60000
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100000
120000
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Historical Data
EPIA Policy driven
EPIA Moderate
Set For 2020 Baseline
Set For 2020 Advanced
Set For 2020 Paradigm Shift
NREAP 2020
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18
389
198
132
83
Paradigm Shift: 12%
Accelerated: 6%
Base Case: 4%
Binding Volumes: 2,5%
Significant Gap to “Set for 2020” Goals Binding Commitments as of September, 2010
Cum
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olum
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W]
Total EU
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19
Source:
Super and Smart Grids
W. Hoffmann, own considerations, March 2011
Pumped storage power station (eg Switzerland)
Pumped storage power station (eg Scandinavia)
Pumped storage power station (eg Austria)
Supergrids: HVAC HVDC
SmartGridst
Medium voltage distribution grid
PV, DSM smart meter
Off-shore wind parks
20
The underlying installed system prices reflect national and segment variations by country
Projection of European installed PV system reference price range1) (2010 to 2020; weighted technology mix per segment)
Installed system prices
[€nominal/Wp]
2020
1.30
2.08
2019
2.44
2015
2.56
2017
2.34
1.40 1.60
2016
2.24
1.46 1.52
2018
1.34
2014
1.70
2.70
2013
1.81
2.84
2012
1.93
3.00
2011
3.18
2010
2.26
3.41
2.16 2.07
1) Range across segments and PV technologies (c-Si and thin-film); includes harmonized, competitive standard margins for modules, BOS and installations; incl. administrative cost; VAT excluded
Source: EPIA/ A.T. Kearney LCOE model; various input sources
Δ: - €/W 0.96 to - €/W 1.33
21
LCOE [€nominal/kWh]
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
2019
0.05
0.00 2020
0.19
0.08
0.19
0.08
2018
0.20
0.08
2017
0.21
0.09
2016
0.22
0.09
2015
0.24
0.10
2014
0.25
0.11
2013
0.27
0.12
2012
0.29
0.13
2011
0.32
0.14
2010
0.36
0.16
0.40
The levelized cost of PV generation in Europe is expected to decline by around 50% until 2020
European PV LCOE range projection 2010 – 2020
Source: EPIA/ A.T. Kearney / Phoenix Solar LCOE model; various input sources
Band of LCOE reflects: • Four different system
size segments • Crystalline Silicon and
Thin Film technologies • Differences in national
installed system and operations cost
• Differences in national irradiation
• Different WACC for different countries considered
• VAT for residential segment
Thanks to Phoenix Solar for granting permission to A.T. Kearney to use existing cost model !
22
22
Competitiveness Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price
Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates, 1999
Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 23
Cumulative Capacity in Paradigm Shift Scenario
23 GW - 2009
36 to 40GW - 2010
750 GW - 2020
1.900 GW - 2030
Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 24
The “History” • Solar Generation I: 2001 • Solar Generation II: 2004 • Solar Generation III: 2006 • Solar Generation IV: 2007 • Solar Generation V: 2008
• 60.000 copies in over 40 countries distributed
• Translated in 12 languages: German, Dutch, Spanish, Italian, French, Greek, Portuguese, Japanese, Thai, Chinese, Russian, Arab, Hebrew
The Mission • Quantification of PV solar electricity until 2050 • Showing the importance of PV for employment • Provide comprehensive information about PV • Target groups: Decision makers in policy and economy; “Multiplicators” as
education and Journalists
Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 25
FOR THE FUTURE The first edition of Solar Generation was published in 2001, since then, each year, the actual global PV market has grown faster that EPIA and Greenpeace had predicted:
**2010 Market size as per modeling developed in summer 2010, actual market could reach around 16 GW in 2010
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Development of PV: Market development and EPIA and Greenpeace forecasts from 2001 to 2010
Source: EPIA and Greenpeace, Solar Generation 6.
The PV Market Results were always much stronger than all previous forecasts
Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 27
Key Results for 2030
WORLD
• 1,850 GW INSTALLED (137 GW annually)
• ≈ 10 % of electricity consumption covered by PV
• 3 billion people could be supplied with PV electricity
• 3.5 million jobs
• 27 to 100 billion € market volume
• 1.3 billion tonnes of CO2 savings annually
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS Rural electrification 3 approaches:
• Extending the national grid. But high cost
• Providing off-grid technologies. PV systems are already cost competitive
• Developing mini-grids with hybrid power.
Combination of generation technologies separate from the grid
PV plays a strategic role in rural electrification
Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 28
Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 29
The Context: There is a global need for CO2-Reduction
• Great window of opportunity: OECD Countries: Re-Powering Developing Countries: Increasing demand
• Solar Generation: Part of the global energy scenario «Energy [R]evolution »
• Solar Generation defines the role that solar electricity will play in the lives of a population born today, who will become energy consumers
• Solar Photovoltaic: Key Technology to fight Climate Change
Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 30
Renewable Energy Share – Power Sector Global: 2020: 38% / 2030: 60% / 2050: 95%
Energy [R]evolution A sustainable World Energy Outlook
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31 Millenium New Materials Key Note, 2010/09/23, Winfried Hoffmann
RES-thinking 2050 Worldwide PV Growth Scenario till 2050
PV Growth Rate PV Volume Growth
CAGR 2000-2009: 45%
Ref: EREC and EPIA 2010
Cum
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V Po
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[GW
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Year
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PV P
ower
[GW
]
Source: EREC RES-Thinking, 03/2010
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32
EU-27 100% target for RES of final energy All RES sources to contribute 43% electricity share assumed
(vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario)
World (OECD) 80% target for RES of final energy 43% electricity share assumed, too PV covers about 1/4 of electricity
and about 1/6 of final energy demand Total PV energy supply in 2050:
11k TWh/a
PV Growth Assumption for 2050
RES-thinking 2050 – World PV Growth Scenario till 2050
Ref: EREC 2010 and W. Hoffmann personal estimates
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CMYK 0/0/0/60
RGB 98/100/100
33
Projection for Future RE Portfolio for a 100% Global End Energy Coverage
ref.: W. Hoffmann, own estimates 09/2010
Main Color
Palette
Secondary Color Palette
CMYK 0/25/100/0
RGB 253/196/0
CMYK 5/80/100/0
RGB 224/81/21
CMYK 0/0/0/100
RGB 0/0/0
CMYK 5/95/100/0
RGB 227/50/38
CMYK 0/70/0/10
RGB 218/104/157
CMYK 50/80/0/0
RGB 148/83/161
CMYK 100/5/5/10
RGB 0/152/203
CMYK 30/8/100/15
RGB 165/175/41
CMYK 0/0/0/60
RGB 98/100/100
Main Color
Palette
Secondary Color Palette
CMYK 0/25/100/0
RGB 253/196/0
CMYK 5/80/100/0
RGB 224/81/21
CMYK 0/0/0/100
RGB 0/0/0
CMYK 5/95/100/0
RGB 227/50/38
CMYK 0/70/0/10
RGB 218/104/157
CMYK 50/80/0/0
RGB 148/83/161
CMYK 100/5/5/10
RGB 0/152/203
CMYK 30/8/100/15
RGB 165/175/41
CMYK 0/0/0/60
RGB 98/100/100
Main Color
Palette
Secondary Color Palette
CMYK 0/25/100/0
RGB 253/196/0
CMYK 5/80/100/0
RGB 224/81/21
CMYK 0/0/0/100
RGB 0/0/0
CMYK 5/95/100/0
RGB 227/50/38
CMYK 0/70/0/10
RGB 218/104/157
CMYK 50/80/0/0
RGB 148/83/161
CMYK 100/5/5/10
RGB 0/152/203
CMYK 30/8/100/15
RGB 165/175/41
CMYK 0/0/0/60
RGB 98/100/100
www.epia.org Gaëtan Masson,
Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 35
Main Color
Palette
Secondary Color Palette
CMYK 0/25/100/0
RGB 253/196/0
CMYK 5/80/100/0
RGB 224/81/21
CMYK 0/0/0/100
RGB 0/0/0
CMYK 5/95/100/0
RGB 227/50/38
CMYK 0/70/0/10
RGB 218/104/157
CMYK 50/80/0/0
RGB 148/83/161
CMYK 100/5/5/10
RGB 0/152/203
CMYK 30/8/100/15
RGB 165/175/41
CMYK 0/0/0/60
RGB 98/100/100
36 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011
Unlocking new markets, stabilizing others
• In Europe – medium size markets to unlock/develop • UK, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Turkey
• In MENA countries - no GW market in the pipe • Feasability in the short term ? • Morocco, Israel, UAE, Jordan ?
• New or consolidating markets in Asia Pacific • Japan ?, South Korea, Thailand, Australia, Taiwan, Malaysia • China of course • India ?
• Americas • US finally developing. But what’s next ? Canada • Central and south America: Mexico, Brazil ?
• We need to consolidate existing markets first • Keep faith: Grid parity is within reach (2013-2020)
Main Color
Palette
Secondary Color Palette
CMYK 0/25/100/0
RGB 253/196/0
CMYK 5/80/100/0
RGB 224/81/21
CMYK 0/0/0/100
RGB 0/0/0
CMYK 5/95/100/0
RGB 227/50/38
CMYK 0/70/0/10
RGB 218/104/157
CMYK 50/80/0/0
RGB 148/83/161
CMYK 100/5/5/10
RGB 0/152/203
CMYK 30/8/100/15
RGB 165/175/41
CMYK 0/0/0/60
RGB 98/100/100
37
Development of the Various Market Segments!
Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates
Main Color
Palette
Secondary Color Palette
CMYK 0/25/100/0
RGB 253/196/0
CMYK 5/80/100/0
RGB 224/81/21
CMYK 0/0/0/100
RGB 0/0/0
CMYK 5/95/100/0
RGB 227/50/38
CMYK 0/70/0/10
RGB 218/104/157
CMYK 50/80/0/0
RGB 148/83/161
CMYK 100/5/5/10
RGB 0/152/203
CMYK 30/8/100/15
RGB 165/175/41
CMYK 0/0/0/60
RGB 98/100/100
38
The market in 2010
• What did we expect one year ago ? And the consultants? Where is the production ?
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2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Average consultants
July
Average consultants
Oct
EPIA Moderate 2010
EPIA Policy-Driven 2010
Actual 2010 (EPIA)
Shipments (Navigant
Consulting)
GW
Germany, Italy but also policy-driven achieved in many countries…
