Air Pollution

Guy Hutton, PhD

DSI Development Solutions Internationalguy.hutton@dev-sol-

int.com

Swiss Centre for International Health,

Swiss Tropical InstituteBasel, Switzerland

13.03.2007 2

Presentation Overview

• The problem

• The range of solutions

• The costs of selected solutions

• The benefits of selected solutions

• Benefit-cost ratios

• Interpretation of results

• Issues in scaling up the solutions

13.03.2007 3

The problem: introduction

• Suspended particulate matter (dust, soot, fumes, mist, smoke, liquid droplets), gaseous pollutants (lead, SO2, NO2, O3, CO), odours

• Transportation, energy generation, industrial operations, processing industries, domestic cooking & heating

• Air pollution impactsHuman and animal health (respiratory, heart)Buildings and materialsAgricultural productionBiodiversityVisibilityGreenhouse gases

13.03.2007 4

The problem: causes

• Household use of biomass for cooking and heatingOpen fires or traditional stoves Conditions of low combustion efficiency, poor ventilation

• Problem more in rural areas (biomass)Also other "modern" indoor air pollutants (e.g. sick-building syndrome)And environmental tobacco smoke, exposure to chemicals or gases in indoor workplaces

• “Rule of 1000”: pollutant released indoors is 1000 times more likely to reach people’s lungs than one released outdoors

Indoor air

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The problem: causes

• Combustion of petroleum products or coal Motor vehicles, industry, power generationMainly around cities and industrial areas

• Associated with advancing economic development• Implies also a corresponding underdevelopment

Affording technologies that reduce pollutionSubsidizing public transport schemesEnforcing regulations

Outdoor air

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The problem: the numbers

• > 3 billion people depend on solid fuels

• In rural areas, unimproved domestic fuels account for 66% (WPR) to >85% households (SSA & SEA)

• > 1.5 million annual deaths attributed to solid fuel use within the home

• 1.5 billion pop. breathe air > WHO standard

• 800,000 annual deaths65% in developing Asia

• 0.6% - 1.4% disease burden in LDCs

• Lead pollution contributes further 0.9%

• Omits air pollution from forest fires and industrial or nuclear accidents

Indoor air Outdoor air

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Akimoto HGlobal Air Quality and PollutionScience, 2003

13.03.2007 8

Global mean tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) 01/2003 – 06/2004. University of Heidelberg.

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Air pollution in the MDGs

• Health goals 4, 5 and 6• Environmental sustainability goal 7 • Gender equality goal 3• Overall poverty rates goal 1

Indoor Air

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The solutions: indoor air

• Reducing the source of pollutionImproved cooking devices Cleaner burning fuelReduced need for fire

• Altering the living environmentVentilation Kitchen design Stove placement

• Alter user behaviourFuel dryingStove and chimney maintenanceUse of pot lids to conserve heatKeep children away from the smoke

13.03.2007 12

Costs and benfits of the solution

• Few cost-benefit studies of indoor air pollution interventions

• One study by WHO evaluated global and regional costs and benefits of selected indoor air pollution interventions:

Solid fuels to LPG or ethanolImproved stoves

All evaluated for MDG target and universal access, also with a separate pro-poor analysisThis presentation shows the MDG analysis

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Total costs of solutions (US$ m)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B

US$

mill

ions

LPG

Global annual cost = 23.6 billion US$Global annual cost = 23.6 billion US$

13.03.2007 14

Total costs of solutions (US$ m)

Stove

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B

US$

mill

ions

Global annual cost = 2.3 billion US$Global annual cost = 2.3 billion US$

13.03.2007 15

Net costs of solutions (US$ m)

LPG

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-B

SEAR-D

WPR-B

US$

mill

ions

Global annual net cost = 13.1 billion US$Global annual net cost = 13.1 billion US$

13.03.2007 16

Net costs of solutions (US$ m)

Stove

-16000

-14000

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-

BSEAR-

DWPR-B

US$

mill

ions

Global annual net cost = Global annual net cost = --34.4 billion US$34.4 billion US$

13.03.2007 17

Total benefits of solutions (%)

Time savings45%

Environment6%

Fuel10%

Health care0%

Morbidity1%

Mortality38%

LPG

Global annual benefit = 101 billion US$Global annual benefit = 101 billion US$

13.03.2007 18

Total benefits of solutions (%)

Mortality10%

Morbidity0%

Health care0%

Fuel26%

Environment2%

Time savings62%

Stove

Global annual benefit = 141 billion US$Global annual benefit = 141 billion US$

13.03.2007 19

Benefit-cost ratios: LPG

DALY= US$1,000

DALY= US$5,000

Value Productivity& VOSL

02468

10

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

02468

10

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

02468

10

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

13.03.2007 20

Benefit-cost ratios: stove

DALY= US$1,000

DALY= US$5,000

Value Productivity& VOSL

020406080

100120

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

020406080

100120

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

020406080

100120

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

13.03.2007 21

One-way sensitivity analysis

AFR-DRegion

LPG 0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1. Stov

e cos

ts & ef

ficien

cy2.

Fuel p

rices

3. Hea

lth im

pacts

4. Valu

e of ti

me (all p

opulat

ion)

5. Valu

e of ti

me (chil

dren o

nly)

6. Tim

e valu

e (ad

ults a

nd chil

dren d

ifferen

tly)

7. Tim

e sav

ings8.

Tree co

st

10. G

HG emiss

ions

11. E

mission

s eco

nomic

value

12. D

iscou

nt rat

e

Bene

fit-C

ost R

atio

LowBase caseHigh

Outdoor Air

13.03.2007 23

The solutions: outdoor air

• Remove pollution at its sourceFewer vehicle kilometers traveled

• Reduce need to travel• Switch to public transport or car pooling

Less fuel use per vehicle km traveled • Lighter vehicles • More efficient engine

Less pollution per unit of fuel used • Switch to cleaner fuel• Catalytic converter

• Filtering pollution away from the source (chimneys, re-location)

- e.g. transport

13.03.2007 24

The solutions: outdoor air

• Policy optionsIllegal to use a polluting fuel or substance (e.g. bans on leaded gasoline or asbestos) Increase the costs of using polluting fuels (polluter pays principle – fuel tax or road tax)Disseminate information on best practices

• Less polluting technologies • Fuel efficiency• Changing behaviour

13.03.2007 25

Costs and benfits of the solution

• Considerable diversity of studies in literatureNational versus city-level studiesComprehensive air pollution control versus single regulatory measuresSingle versus multiple pollutant interventionsIndustry-wide versus single industry measures

• Interventions presented focus mainly on fuel switching or technological solutions

• Studies mainly from developed countries

13.03.2007 26

Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

1. US Federal Regulations

• Policy National emissions standards for hazardous air pollutants

• Scope Country-wide• Year 1994-2004• Cost US$15 - US$17 billion annually • Benefit Health

US$41 - US$218 billion annually• BCR 2.72 - 13.0

13.03.2007 27

Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

2. United States EPA Clean Air Act

• Policy Clean Air Act• Scope Country-wide• Year 1990 - 2010• Cost US$19 billion annually in 2000

Rising to US$27 billion annually in 2010 • Benefit Health, crop damage, visibility

US$71 billion annually in 2000Rising to US$110 billion annually

• BCR 3.8

13.03.2007 28

Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

3. European clean air targets

• Policy Reductions in emissions to meet air quality targets for CO, heavy metals, ozone, hydrocarbons

• Scope Europe-wide • Cost Euro 7 billion annually• Benefit Mortality, morbidity, hospital admissions

(from PM and ozone)Euro 42 billion annually

• BCR 6.0

13.03.2007 29

Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

4. UK Air Quality Strategy review

• Policy 17 policy measures to achieve AQS• Scope Country-wide• Year 2005 - 2020• Cost £374 - £866 million annually • Benefit Health

£566 - £2021 million annually • BCR 0.9 – 3.8

13.03.2007 30

Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

5. China natural gas project

• Policy Substituting natural gas for coal in residential and commercial uses

• Scope Beijing and Chongqing• Year 1998 - 2018• Cost Capital investment – year 0

Beij. 3.5 bn RBM; Chong. 0.7 bn RMB • Benefit Health – annual figures

Beij. 2.1 bn RBM; Chong. 4.9 bn RMB • NPV Beij: 6.9 bn RMB; Chong: 18.6 bn RMB• IRR Beij: 29%; Chong: 75%

13.03.2007 31

Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

6. Shanghai Emission Control

• Policy Emissions control in power and industry• Scope Shanghai • Year 2010-2020 • Cost Power: US$395 million annually

Industry: US$94 million annually • Benefit Mortality, morbidity, work days (PM10)

Power: US$417 million annually Industry: US$266 million annually

• BCR 2.0 (power) and 5.4 (industry)

13.03.2007 32

Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

7. Japan sulphur emissions control

• Policy Comparing SO2 emissions control in 3

policy epochs • Scope Country-wide• Year 1968-73; 1974-1983; 1984-93• Cost (1) 5,576 bn Yen; (2) 15,991 bn Yen

(3) 9,354 bn Yen • Benefit Morbidity, work days

(1) 30,058 bn Yen; (2) 18,818 bn Yen; (3) 3,854 bn Yen

• BCR (1) 5.39; (2) 1.18; (3) 0.41

13.03.2007 33

Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

Other studies presenting BCRs

• Air pollution reductions in Hungary: 3.0 – 17.0

• Emissions reductions in the oil extraction industry in Kazakhstan: 5.7

• Nitric oxide and NO2 emissions reductions in Tokyo (1974 to 1993): 6.0

• Pollution control programme in Canada: 3.0

13.03.2007 34

Interpreting the results

• Outdoor air pollution studies estimate mainly health-related costs, omitting

Quality of life indicatorsMaterial damage and costs of cleaning upAgricultural productionBiodiversityGlobal environment

• Large uncertainties in health impact estimations• Economic results highly dependent on valuation

techniques – e.g. value of life

13.03.2007 35

Scaling up the solutions

• Priority settingMultiple factors influence decision makers

• FinancingCost savings make some interventions attractiveEnvironmental benefits are externalities

• Other issuesRegulations need to be respected (policing costs)Access to markets and technologies