1 1 3 Energy Transition

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Institute for Process- and Particle Engineering

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Hans.Schnitzer @ TUGRAZ.AT Milano. March 2015

Energy transition

Hans Schnitzer

Graz University of TechnologyInstitute for Process and Particle Engineering


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Disclaimer

• This series of slides is made for a class room presentation andnot for a scientific publication

• Many of the figures and photos are taken from other publicationsor presentations; the original authors might not be citedcompletely on the slides

• This set of slides may not be cited as a source for the materialincluded!• For more information please contact:[email protected]


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The Energy Challengewhy do we deal with energy efficiency and renewable resources?


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Why do we need energy?

• List up some energy services!


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Energy is a provider of services• Energy is hardly in the final product• Energy is needed to fulfill “services”

– Information – Mobility – Well being – …


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What is energy used for?


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Who needs energy?

High-temperature

LightInformation

PowerDrives

ChemicalIndustry

Low-temperature

MobilityTransport


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How to substitute resources

SERVICE COMFORT

MONEY

ENERGY

MATERIALS

TIME

KNOW-HOW MANPOWER

SUFFICIENCY


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The diagram shows how wellbeing in a room isdepending on temperature and humidity

Quelle: Gewerbe MPLUS: Leitfaden für effiziente Energienutzung im Gewerbe

Humid, not comfortable

dry, not comfortable

comfortable

Room temperature °C

R e l a t

i v e

h u m

i d i t y %


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The Energy Challengewhy do we deal with energy efficiency and renewable

resources?

• World energy demand will increase significantly dueto: – Growing world population – Fast economic growth in large countries

– Globalization – …

• World energy supply is mostly fossil-based and willremain so for decades

• Energy-related worldwide environmental impacts willcontinue to grow: GLOBAL WARMING

• Access to affordable energy is not uniform• Energy will continuously increase in price


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Source:

ASPO Sep 2006

Actual Production2003 – 79.62 Mbd2004 – 83.12 Mbd2005 – 84.63 Mbd2006 – 84.60 Mbd2007 – 84.34 Mbd


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Hans.Schnitzer @ TUGRAZ.AT Milano. March 2015regener Q u e l

l e :

Ö k o e n e r g

i e 4 9

, 2 0 0 2

Fossil EnergyIntensity of use during history of mankind

Stone agefinished not dueto lack of stones

Oil age won‘tfinish due tooil shortage


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Hans.Schnitzer @ TUGRAZ.AT Milano. March 2015regener Rns.tugraz.atwww.joanneum.at/nts

Energy use and domestic product


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Energy and basic human needs. The international relationship between energy use(kilograms of oil equivalent per capita) and the Human Development Index (2000).

(Source: UNDP, 2002, WRI, 2002)


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Economic growth and happiness.

American's averagebuying power hasalmost tripled sincethe 1950s, while

reported happinesshas remained almostunchanged.(Happiness data from National OpinionResearch Center General SocialSurvey; income data fromHistoricalStatistics of the United States andEconomic Indicators .)


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National wealth and well-being.Source: Inglehart, 2006.


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Happyness versus incomeQuelle: http://www.davidmyers.org/Brix?pageID=48


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Sustainability requires innovationF

a c t or 4

E c o-E f f i c i en

c y

doing thingsbetter

I nn

ov

a t

i on

F a c t o

r 1

0

doingbetterthing

sResource use

Environmentalimpact

Goods andservices provided


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The best way to predict

the future is to invent it•American native sayer


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• http://www.roadmap2050.eu/


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EU GHG emissions towards an 80%domestic reduction (100% = 1990)

Source: EUROPEAN COMMISSION (2011): A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050.


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S-shaped scenario for CO 2-emissionsreduction in urope !"#$a % &t$a'

0,0

1000,0

2000,0

3000,0

4000,0

5000,0

6000,0

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 3

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 5

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2 0 1 4

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2 0 2 0

2 0 2 3

2 0 2 6

2 0 2 9

2 0 3 2

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2 0 4 1

2 0 4 4

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Year

M t / a

0,0

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M t / a

emissions

targets

reduction in year


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IPPC• The IPCC calls for global emission reductions of about 50 % by

the middle of the 21st century in order to keep the objective ofkeeping global warming to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial temperature. This implies 60–80 % reduction ofemissions by developed countries. Developing countries withlarge emissions, such as China, India and Brazil, will have tolimit their emission growth. Europe will attempt to reassert itsglobal leadership on climate change according to a two-daysummit kicking off in Brussels (29-30 October 2009), with EUleaders set to back emissions reductions "of at least 80-95%" forthe developed world by 2050, according to a draft statementobtained by EurActiv[1].[1]http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-change/eu-summit-back-95-emissions-reduction-goal/article-186843


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The leaders of the Group of Eight expressedthe need for a reduction of Global Warming

Gases (GHGs) like this• 65. We reaffirm the importance of the work of the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC) and notably of i ts Fourth Assessment Report,which constitutes the most comprehensive assessment of the science. Werecognise the broad scientific view that the increase in global averagetemperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to exceed 2°C. Becausethis global challenge can only be met by a global response, we reiterate ourwillingness to share with all countries the goal of achieving at least a 50%reduction of global emissions by 2050 , recognising that this implies thatglobal emissions need to peak as soon as possible and decline thereafter.As part of this, we also support a goal of developed countries reducing

emissions of greenhouse gases in aggregate by 80% or more by 2050compared to 1990 or more recent years. Consistent with this ambitiouslong-term objective, we will undertake robust aggregate and individual mid- term reductions, taking into account that baselines may vary and that effortsneed to be comparable. Similarly, major emerging economies need toundertake quantifiable actions to collectively reduce emissions significantlybelow business-as-usual by a specified year.


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EU‘s ambitions and targets

• One of the EU's key ambitions must be to develop a low-carboneconomy[1]. The EU has put in place a comprehensive policyframework, including among others: the climate and energytargets for 2020 and a carbon price through the EmissionsTrading System (ETS). It was also working towards thesuccessful conclusion of international climate changenegotiations at Copenhagen at the end of 2009. Now, EU has todeliver, both in terms of the 2020 targets and, in the longer term,aiming for an 80% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050compared to 1990 levels.

•[1]COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THEEUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEANECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THECOMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS: Investing in the Developmentof Low Carbon Technologies (SET-Plan) Brussels, 7.10.2009


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Energy Transition• The Energy transition is the shift by several countries to sustainable

economies by means ofrenewable energy, energy efficiencyand sustainabledevelopment. The final goal is the abolishment of coal and other non-renewableenergy sources.

• Renewable energy encompasses wind, biomass (such as landfill gas andsewage gas), hydropower, solar power (thermal and photovoltaic),geothermal,and ocean power. These renewable sources are to serve as an alternative tofossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) and nuclear fuel(uranium).

• Piecemeal measures often have only limited potential, so a timelyimplementation for the energy transition requires multiple approaches in parallel.Energy conservationand improvements inenergy efficiencythus play a majorrole.

• After such a transitional period, with a continuing increase in renewable energyproduction these are expected to make up most, if not all, of the world's energyproduction in 50 years according to a 2011 projection by theInternationalEnergy Agency, dramatically reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases.


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Energy Transition• The term “Energiewende” was the title of a 1980 publication by the GermanÖko-Institut, calling

for the complete abandonment of nuclear and petroleum energy. On the 16th of February of thatyear the German Federal Ministry of the Environment also hosted a symposium in Berlin, calledEnergy Transition: Nuclear Phase-Out and Climate Protection. The views of the Öko-Institut,initially so strongly opposed, have gradually become common knowledge in energy policy. In thefollowing decades the term expanded in scope; in its present form it dates back to at least 2002.

• 'Energy transition' designates a significant change inenergy policy: The term encompasses areorientation of policy from demand to supply and a shift from centralized to distributed

generation (for example, producing heat and power in very small cogeneration units), whichshould replace overproduction and avoidable energy consumption with energy-saving measuresand increased efficiency.

• In a broader sense the energy transition also entails a democratization of energy: In thetraditional energy industry, a few large companies with large centralized power stations dominatethe market as an oligopoly and consequently amass a worrisome level of both economic andpolitical power. Renewable energies, in contrast, can as a rule be established in a decentralizedmanner. Public wind farms and solar parks can involve many citizens directly in energyproduction. Photovoltaic systems can even be set up by individuals. Municipal utilities can alsobenefit citizens financially, while the conventional energy industry profits a relatively smallnumber of shareholders. Also significant, the decentralized structure of renewable energiesenables creation of value locally and minimizes capital outflows from a region. Renewableenergy sources therefore play an increasingly important role in municipal energy policy, and localgovernments often promote them.


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Hydro-power

WindWaves dT, dc

Solar-thermal

Photo-voltaics

Therm.Power.

Tides

Geo-thermal

Storage

Storage

Electricity

High-temperature

LightInformation

PowerDrives

ChemicalIndustry

Low-temperature

MobilityTransport

passive active

HP

Shortrotation Wood

Wastebiomass

Hydrogen

Incin-eration

Therm.-Chem.-

processes

Bio-Tech.processes

Solid,gas.

& liqu.Bio-fuels

Bulk &fine

Chemic.

Directutilization

Indirectutilization

Photo-synthesis

Z e r o

G l o b a l W a r m

i n g


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Renewables in EUfacts and targets

Quelle: Weiss W.: Welchen Beitrag kann die Solarthermie in einem nachhaltigen Energiesystem leisten? Ee1-08, 9


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Energy Efficiency

• The cost of saving energy is going down while theprice of energy is going up.

• Efficiency is the cleanest, cheapest, safest, and mostsecure source energy we have.

• These savings from energy efficiency to date havenot yet come close to tapping the full potential forsavings.


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Why Be Energy Efficient?• Reduce operating costs.• Stabilize atmospheric carbon & reduce global climate

change impacts.• Improve the quality of life in our buildings and

communities.


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Hierarchy of Approaches to Energy Efficiency

• Reduce demand, cut peak demand – Better machines, equipment – Better systems

• Utilize available waste heat

• Cogeneration (heat / power / cold,…)• Renewable forms of energy• Sell waste heat• Reduce services


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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS (PV)

• The solar PV market had a record year, adding more than 39 GW in2013 for a total exceeding 139 GW. China saw spectacular growth,accounting for nearly one-third of global capacity added, followed byJapan and the United States.

• Solar PV is starting to play a substantial role in electricity generation insome countries, particularly in Europe, while lower prices are openingnew markets from Africa and the Middle East to Asia and LatinAmerica.

• Interest continued to grow in corporate- and community-ownedsystems, while the number and size of utility-scale systems continuedto increase. Although it was a challenging year for many companies,predominantly in Europe, the industry began to recover during 2013.Module prices stabilised, while production costs continued to fall andsolar cell efficiencies increased steadily. Many manufacturers beganexpanding production capacity to meet expected further growth indemand.


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Solar PV Total Global Capacity, 2004–2013


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Solar PV Global Capacity Additions andAnnual Investment, 2004–2013


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BIOMASS FOR HEAT, POWER, ANDTRANSPORT

• Biomass demand continued to grow steadily in the heat, power, and transportsectors.

• Total primary energy consumption of biomass reached approximately 57 exajoules(EJ) in 2013, of which almost 60% was traditional biomass, and the remainder wasmodern bioenergy (solid, gaseous, and liquid fuels). Heating accounted for themajority of biomass use, with modern biomass heat capacity rising about 1% to anestimated 296 gigawatts-thermal (GWth).

• Global bio-power capacity was up by an estimated 5 GW to 88 GW. Bio-powergeneration exceeded 400 Terawatt-hours (TWh) during the year, including powergenerated in combined heat and power (CHP) plants. Demand for modern biomassis driving increased international trade in solid biofuels, including wood pellets.

• Liquid biofuels met about 2.3% of global transport fuel demand. In 2013, global

production rose by 7.7 billion litres to reach 116.6 billion litres. Ethanol productionwas up 6% after two years of decline, biodiesel rose 11%, and hydrotreatedvegetable oil (HVO) rose by 16% to 3 million litres. New plants for making advancedbiofuels, produced from non-food biomass feedstocks, were commissioned inEurope and North America.

• However, overall investment in new biofuel plant capacity continued to decline fromits 2007 peak.


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Biomass Resources and EnergyPathways


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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING AND COOLING• Solar water and air collector capacity exceeded 283 GWth in 2012 and reached

an estimated 330 GWth by the end of 2013.• As in past years, China was the main demand driver, accounting for more than

80% of the global market. Demand in key European markets continued to slow,but markets expanded in countries such as Brazil, where solar thermal waterheating is cost competitive.

• The trend towards deploying large domestic systems continued, as did growinginterest in the use of solar thermal technologies for district heating, cooling, andindustrial applications.

• China maintained its lead in the manufacture of solar thermal collectors.International attention to quality standards and certification continued, largely inresponse to high failure rates associated with cheap tubes from China.

• Europe saw accelerated consolidation during the year, with several largesuppliers announcing their exit from the industry.

• Industry expectations for market development are the brightest in India andGreece.


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Solar Water Heating Collectors GlobalCapacity, Shares of Top 10 Countries, 2012


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Solar water heating collectors globalcapacity 2000 - 2013


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WIND POWER

• More than 35 GW of wind power capacity was added in 2013, for a total above318 GW. However, following several record years, the market was down nearly10 GW compared to 2012, reflecting primarily a steep drop in the U.S. market.While the European Union remained the top region for cumulative wind capacity,Asia was nipping at its heels and is set to take the lead in 2014.

• New markets continued to emerge in all regions, and, for the first time, Latin

America represented a significant share of new installations. Offshore wind hada record year, with 1.6 GW added, almost all of it in the EU.• However, the record level hides delays due to policy uncertainty and project

cancellations or downsizing.• The wind industry continued to be challenged by downward pressure on prices,

increased competition among turbine manufacturers, competition with low-costgas in some markets, reductions in policy support driven by economic austerity,and declines in key markets. At the same time, falling capital costs andtechnological advances increased capacity factors, improving the cost-competitiveness of wind-generated electricity relative to fossil fuels. The offshoreindustry continued to move farther from shore and into deeper waters, drivingnew foundation designs and requiring more-sophisticated vessels.


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HYDROPOWER

• Global hydropower generation during the year was an estimated3,750 TWh. About 40 GW of new hydropower capacity wascommissioned in 2013, increasing total global capacity byaround 4% to approximately 1,000 GW.

• By far the most capacity was installed in China (29 GW), withsignificant capacity also added in Turkey, Brazil, Vietnam, India,and Russia. Growth in the industry has been relatively steady inrecent years, fuelled primarily by China’s expansion.

• Modernisation of ageing hydropower facilities is a growingglobal market. Some countries are seeing a trend towardssmaller reservoirs and multi-turbine run-of-river projects. Therealso is increasing recognition of the potential for hydropower tocomplement other renewable technologies, such as variablewind and solar power.


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GEOTHERMAL POWER AND HEAT• About 530 MW of new geothermal generating capacity came on

line in 2013. Accounting for replacements, the net increase wasabout 455 MW, bringing total global capacity to 12 GW. This netcapacity growth of 4% compares to an average annual growthrate of 3% for the two previous years (2010–12).

• Direct use of geothermal energy—for thermal baths andswimming pools, space heating, and agricultural and industrialprocesses— is estimated to exceed 300 petajoules (PJ)annually, but growth is not robust.

• Governments and industry continued to pursue technologicalinnovation to increase efficient use of conventional geothermalresources. In parallel, the use of low-temperature fields for bothpower and heat continued to expand, increasing the applicationof geothermal energy beyond high-temperature locations.


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OCEAN ENERGY

• Ocean energy capacity, mostly tidal power generation, wasabout 530 MW by the end of 2013.

• In preparation for anticipated commercial projects, a handful ofpilot installations were deployed during the year for ongoingtests. Particularly in the United Kingdom and France, there areindications that significant capacity growth will occur in the nearfuture, due to concerted industry focus and government support.

• Major corporations continued to consolidate their positions in theocean energy sector through strategic partnerships andacquisitions of technology developers.


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The existinggeo-centric system

• In the existing geo-centric system resources aretaken from the earth crust, processed, diluted anddeposited again – crude oil – coal – gas – uranium – landfills – carbon storage

• Some emissions are stored in theatmosphere and cause seriousproblems there (CO2, CFCs,…)


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The upcominghelio-centric system

• In the to-be heliocentric system, theeconomy will be driven by solarenergy: – Indirect utilization of solar radiation as

biomass, wind, waves, hydro power,… – Direct utilization of solar radiation through

photo voltaic and solar thermal heat – Biorefineries as a basis for an agro-based

economy


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The Copernican Revolution in economics:from a geo-centric to a helio-centricsystem

• So far: Geo-centric• To-be: Helio-centric

This change will face similar problems like the

Copernican Revolution in natural science, although itcomes 500 years later!

Documents

1 1 3 Energy Transition