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1
Analytic Capacity to Address the Neighborhood
Impacts of Foreclosures
HUD Office of Policy Development and Research
November 2, 2009
Tom Kingsley, Kathy Pettit, Peter Tatian, Leah Hendey
The Urban Institute
2
THIS PRESENTATION
Urban Institute Approach & Experience Tom Kingsley
Working with NNIP to Address the Crisis Kathy Pettit
Addressing Foreclosure Issues in the Washington DC Region Peter Tatian
3
UI APPROACH
Assemble national datasets Work involves assembly, cleaning, selecting
indicators, structuring for ease of use Developed the Neighborhood Change Database
(NCDB – consistent census data since 1970) These data systems – the content for DataPlace
Form working relationship with local practitioners Coordinate the National Neighborhood Indicators
Partnership (NNIP – since 1995) Local data intermediaries – operate neighborhood
level information systems in public interest Number of local partners has grown (from 6 to 32)
4
NATIONAL DATA RESOURCES
Economy Example: Zip Business Patterns
Education Example: National Center for Education Statistics
Income/Savings Example: Statistics of Income Individual Tax Data
Housing Example: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Example: Section 8/Multifamily
5
NATIONAL NEIGHBORHOOD INDICATORS PARTNERSHIP (NNIP)
Local partners operate information systems Recurrently updated neighborhood-level data Multiple topics and data sources
Trusted institutions Mostly outside of government 38% University institutes, 33% stand-alone nonprofits Rely on collaboration with other sectors and residents
Shared mission: Democratizing information Practical applications central to mission Direct work with stakeholders – stakeholders “own” the
product
6
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NATIONAL NEIGHBORHOOD INDICATORS PARTNERSHIP (NNIP)
AtlantaBaltimoreBostonCamdenChattanoogaChicagoClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDes MoinesDetroitGrand RapidsHartfordIndianapolisLouisvilleLos AngelesMemphisMiami MilwaukeeMinneapolisNashvilleNew HavenNew OrleansNew York City
Oakland PhiladelphiaPittsburghProvidenceSacramentoSaint LouisSeattleWashington, DC
7
LOCAL PARTNERS IN NNIP DATA FROM MANY SOURCES
Address level
Employment Births, deaths Crimes TANF, Food Stamps Child care Health Schools
Parcel level
Prop. sales, prices Prop. ownership Foreclosures Assessed values Tax arrears Vacant/abandoned City/CDC plans
8
NNIP – RECENT ACTIVITIES Cross-site projects
Promoting school readiness and success Supporting the Sustainable Communities Initiative Addressing the foreclosure crisis
Tools Catalog of Administrative Data Sources Guide to Property Data
Continued support for aspiring partners Portland, San Antonio, Kansas City
9
RECENT UI PROJECTS ON FORECLOSURE ISSUES
Literature review: impacts of foreclosures on families and neighborhoods (OSI)
Action research/data and strategy: Atlanta, Chicago, Washington (Fannie Mae)
Foreclosure-Response.org web site (with Center for Housing Policy & LISC, various sponsors)
Analysis for District of Columbia (D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities, Banking & Fannie Mae)
Analysis spatial patterns & policy, Washington DC Region (Housing in Nation’s Capital, Fannie Mae)
10
RECENT UI PROJECTS (continued)
Evaluation of National Foreclosure Mitigation Counseling Program (NeighborWorks)
Evaluation of Living Cities Neighborhood Stabilization Initiative (Living Cities)
Impacts on school children - Baltimore, New York, Washington (OSI)
Neighborhood typologies (foreclosure risk x market strength) – Atlanta, Baltimore, Louisville, Providence (with LISC, for Casey Foundation)
NSP2 Technical Assistance (part of LISC team)
12
NNIP Partner Foreclosure Activities, Winter 2009
Activity AreaNumber of Partners
Currently involved in foreclosure work
25
Overall coordination of strategies 13
Foreclosure prevention 10
Minimizing harm from vacant foreclosed properties
10
Helping displaced families recover 1
Getting vacant foreclosed properties back into use
9
13
Neighborhood Responses to the Foreclosure Crisis Symposium
Minneapolis, May 2009
Co-sponsored by NNIP and University of Minnesota Center for Urban and Regional Affairs (CURA)
Workshops Outreach/Organizing for Prevention Managing Foreclosed Properties Acquisition of Foreclosed Properties Land Banking
14
Foreclosure-Related Data Geography
Property Transactions/Characteristics
Any Geography
Address/ Parcel
Property characteristics 23 22
Home sales (volume, price) 29 21
Tax delinquencies 16 14
Vacant parcels 22 18
Foreclosures 29 20
Housing code violations 17 14
15
Property Transactions/Characteristics Any
Daily/ weekly/monthly Quarterly Annual
Property characteristics 22 5 4 11
Home sales (volume, price) 28 7 5 11
Tax delinquencies 15 2 2 5
Vacant parcels 21 4 2 5
Foreclosures 26 9 5 4
Housing code violations 16 1 0 5
Foreclosure-Related Data Update Schedule
17
Identifying Elderly At Risk of Losing Homes in Allegheny County
2,214(18%)
4,646(33%)
12,494
Analysis by Pittsburgh Neighborhood and Community Information System
12,494 people named as defendants in foreclosure proceedings between 2006 and Nov. 2007
4,646 matches with Allegheny County Department of Human Service clients
2,214 of customers actively accessing resources
904 elderly identified (599 as active Area Agency on Aging consumers and 305 from voter records)
599(5%)
305(2%) +
18
Foreclosed Rental Propertiesin New York City
Of the 15,000 foreclosure filings in 2007, 60% were on multifamily buildings. Foreclosures affected 30,000 households, 15,000 of which were renters
19
Source: University of MemphisCenter for Community Building and Neighborhood Action (CBANA)
Foreclosure, Vacancy, & Abandonmentin Memphis Neighborhoods
$4,000-$5,999 17%(499)
$6,000-$7,99917%(495)
$8,000-$10,000 21%(620)
$1-$999 9%
(262)
$1000-$1,999 15%(435)
$2,000-$3,999 21%(630)
N=2,941
Source: Cuyahoga County Auditor transfer data from NEO CANDO, Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development, Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences, Case Western Reserve University.http://neocado.case.edu
Prices of Distressed Properties Leaving REO,2005-08
Source: NEO CANDO, Case Western University N=2,941
Top Sellers of REO Properties, Cuyahoga County, 2007-2008
Seller
Number of REO
properties sold,
$10,000 or less
Percent of total REO properties
sold
REO properties
sold by seller, all
prices
Percent of REO
properties sold for
$10,000 or less by seller
Deutsche Bank National Trust 486 18.59% 1089 44.63%
Wells Fargo 304 11.63% 771 39.43%
Fannie Mae 239 9.14% 982 24.34%
U.S. Bank National Association 194 7.42% 519 37.38%
LaSalle Bank National Association 162 6.20% 322 50.31%
Bank of New York 112 4.28% 404 27.72%
JP Morgan Chase Bank 103 3.94% 298 34.56%
HSBC Bank 75 2.87% 163 46.01%
Homecoming Financial Network 73 2.79% 173 42.20%
Wachovia Bank 56 2.14% 150 37.33%
Total (top sellers) 1804 69.00% 4871 62.46%
Total REO properties sold 2614 7799
Source: Cuyahoga County Auditor transfer data from NEO CANDO, Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development, Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences, Case Western Reserve University.
http://neocando.case.edu
24
Addressing The Foreclosure Crisis: Action Oriented Research
AtlantaPerformed scan of foreclosure response system, convened stakeholders from across systems and counties, worked in-depth with DeKalb County
ChicagoWorked with Greater Southwest Development Corporation to analyze foreclosure counseling clients wit administrative foreclosure data
Washington, D.C. (described later)
27
Children and Foreclosures
Baltimore, New York City, Washington, D.C. Link public school student data with foreclosure
data by address Phase 1: Point-in-time
How Many? Who (race, tenure, ELL)? What Neighborhoods? What Schools?
Phase 2: Post-foreclosure Where do the families go? How does it affect their academic outcomes?
(absenteeism, test scores, drop-out rates)
1,400 D.C. students lived in a home in foreclosure, concentrated in a few areas. Public School Students in Parcels Public School Students in Parcels with Foreclosure Notice, SY 2008-2009with Foreclosure Notice, SY 2008-2009
H Street /Kingman Park
Deanwood /Lincoln Heights
Trinidad
Brightwood /16th Street Heights /
Petworth
Location of Students' Residences, 2008-2009 School Year
Number of Public Students in Parcel1
5
10
Ward Boundaries
1 to 4 students5 to 9 students10 or more students
29
NNIP Roles in NSP/NSP2
Locally: Proposal Planning, Implementation and Monitoring 12 assisted in original NSP applications
(city/county, state) Nationally: Technical Assistance
31
DC Housing Monitor Quarterly update on D.C. housing market
Home and condominium sales, listings Section 8 preservation Foreclosures
Special analysis Mortgage lending trends (HMDA) Who owns the neighborhood? Tracking subsidized housing
http://www.NeighborhoodInfoDC.org/housing/
32
Prices dropping throughout the city,middle of market had steepest declines
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Four-quarter moving average of median price, single-family homes (2009 $ thousands)
33
Foreclosure inventory continues to rise, foreclosure starts and sales leveling off
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
In Foreclosure
Foreclosure Starts
Foreclosure Sales
Distressed Sales
Foreclosures Avoided
Single-family homes and condominium units, 1999 – 2009 Q2
34
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Est
imat
ed N
um
ber
of
Ho
use
ho
lds
in P
rop
erti
esin
Fo
recl
osu
re In
ven
tory
Renter Households
Owner Households
Half of D.C. Households Affected by Foreclosures are Renters
35
Housing in the Nation's Capital Annual report on housing conditions in the
Washington, D.C., metropolitan area Since 2002, regular updates of key indicators Special analyses
2003: Low-income housing 2004 & 2005: Challenges from economic prosperity 2006: Link between housing, neighborhoods, schools 2007: Housing for populations with special needs 2009: Foreclosures
http://www.urban.org/center/met/hnc/index.cfm
36
Assisted local jurisdictions with NSP 2 applications Provided both the District of Columbia and
the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) with data to support their applications Mapping of HUD foreclosure and vacancy indices Local data on foreclosures HMDA, MRIS, Census, BLS
38
Resources
http://www.foreclosure-response.org
NNIP Foreclosures – cross-site and local
http://www2.urban.org/nnip/foreclosures.html
NeighborhoodInfo DC Foreclosure Page
http://www.neighborhoodinfodc.org/foreclosure/
39
Contact InformationMetropolitan Housing and Communities Center The Urban Institute2100 M Street, NWWashington, DC 20037Tel (main): 202-833-7200Web: www.urban.orgEmail: [email protected]