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Brief Presentation onBrief Presentation on
Climate Change: Basic IssuesClimate Change: Basic Issues (Adaptation, Mitigation and Negotiation)(Adaptation, Mitigation and Negotiation)
The ECBI Regional WorkshopThe ECBI Regional WorkshopONON
CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
Rajendrapur, Gazipur, BangladeshRajendrapur, Gazipur, Bangladesh 7-9 AUGUST 20067-9 AUGUST 2006
Presented by Dr. A. Atiq RahmanDr. A. Atiq Rahman
Executive Director, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) Visiting Professor, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Tufts University & Harvard University, USA
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Sources of GHGsSources of GHGs
Energy SectorEnergy Sector• Energy Industry• Manufacturing Industries• Transport• Residential Sector• Commercial• Agriculture
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector• Crop Agriculture• Livestock and Manure Management-
Landuse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and Forestry• Conversion of Land• Consumption of Timber and Deforestation
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Is Climate Change a Reality?Is Climate Change a Reality?
Phases
• Phase I (80ies): does Climate Change occur and how much
• Phase II (90ies): what are the impacts and vulnerabilities, emission reduction (mitigation)
• Phase III (ongoing): adaptation
In Bangladesh awareness, concern and acceptance are growing
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Robust FindingsRobust Findings(from 3(from 3rdrd assessment report) assessment report)
Adverse impacts are expected to be more in tropical and sub-tropical zones and fall disproportionately upon developing countries and poor persons within those countries
Adaptation
Has the potential t reduce adverse impacts of climate change and can often produce immediate ancillary benefit, but will not prevent all damage
Can complement mitigation in a cost-effective strategy to reduce climate change risks
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Most Vulnerable Sectors andMost Vulnerable Sectors andAdaptation OptionsAdaptation Options
Vulnerable Sectors
Coastal zone resources
Freshwater resources
Agriculture
Human health
Ecosystem and Biodiversity
Area of Adaptation
Physical
Institutional
Social
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UNFCCC: The Climate Convention
Two Objectives: Stabilize Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentration in the
atmosphere from anthropogenic intervention Sustainable Development
Food Security Ecosystem vulnerability
Key Issues are: Rate of Change Equity Financial Mechanism North-South Debate Historical Responsibility versus Liability
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Approaches to solutions and actions
Mitigation Kyoto Protocol (the first limited action) Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI, Emissions
Trading)
Adaptation First potential for funding NAPA (National Action Plan for Adaption)
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Southern Perspectives Is there a “South”? What is a Southern Perspective? There are many, in
fact… G77+China
NICs (potentially large emitters): China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa
High per capita emitters: South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia
OPEC AOSIS: Threatened and extremely vulnerable LDCs: Poorer and Vulnerable
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Developing Countries
Development Priority Climate Sensitive Development Decarbonization of Production/Consumption
Processes Institutional Development & Capacity Building
Agenda Setting Research Negotiations Local and (or versus?) Global Good
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Evolution and Engagement of the South INC (1-11) Rio Declaration → UNFCCC Berlin Mandate (COP-1) Kyoto Protocol and Mechanisms Marrakech Accord: Adaptation Beyond Kyoto
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North-South Dialogue
1. Principle of “Common but Differentiated Responsibility”2. Those who committed MUST ACT
• Early Beginning• Inadequate• No-hurt syndrome
3. KP was an Intra-North Dialogue First Commitment Period
4. Committed Emitters vs. Emerging Emitters5. Kyoto Mechanisms:
• Real GHG Reduction• Not Transfer of Carbon
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Ethical Basis for EquityTwo Concepts:
1. All human beings are equal (UN)2. All people must have equal rights to global
commons including the atmosphere and oceans (GFEP Declaration, UNCED)
Per capita entitlement concept Subsistence vs. non-subsistence GHG
(greenhouse gas) emissions (CH4, CO2) Cooking vs. Car mileage Right to Sustainable Development vs.
Responsibility to Sustainable Development At what rate is mass death is genocide?! Slavery, poverty convention!
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Issues and Concerns
Responsibility for Climate Change and Role of North Is it new for Environmental Colonialism? Capacity Building” Who will pay? Role of Government Is it an Unfair Trade: Climate Change is a new
dimension Small Countries: Low Polluters – can they benefit
from Climate Change
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Issues and Concerns Per capita allocation Future:
1990 Baseline Per capita Annex 1 emissions when reached –
graduate Is it compatible with global reduction need
Ecological Integrity Uncertainties
In Science (IPCC) Costing: of Actions, Non-Actions Beyond Kyoto (Second [+] Commitment Period[s])
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Northern and Southern views
Northern view: the South must participate Southern view:
The North is the cause of climate change (in terms of historical emissions)
The North is not doing enough Kyoto is in trouble
US: abandoned its commitments EU: Slow to react First inadequate small steps Science (IPCC) requires rapid reduction
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Country case studies of the South
Bangladesh: Most Vulnerable Displacement Ecosystem Threatened Threatening Development Food Security Doing a lot CDM and Adaptation (NAPA)
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Country case studies of the South
Maldives Threatened Can do very little Sovereignty in question
Nepal Elevated rate of snow melt Glacial Loss Ecosystem threatened Social Instability
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Typology of Natural Disaster Likely Impact of Climate Change Floods and inundations Saline Intrusion Cyclones, Typhoons, Storm Surges, Tornadoes, Hurricanes Droughts Pests/Locusts Disease: Outbreaks and Vectors Forest Fires Landslides Heat Waves/Cold Waves, Temperature Extremes Sea Level Rise Riverbank Erosion
Increase
None
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Key Stressors Temperature Increase SLR (Sea Level Rise) Population Shift Carbon Concentration Increase
Sectors Extent of Events
Intensity Frequency
Desertification/Drought Salt Water/Flood/Inundation Ecosystem: Extent Food Security - Poverty
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A preliminary vulnerability assessment for agriculture
Identification of the crops, geographical regions, and rural populations most likely to be vulnerable
Description of the vulnerable crops, regions and groups as well as the reasons for their vulnerability
Analysis of analogous regions (e.g., warmer regions of the country) under current climate regimes to help identify implications for future response to climate change
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Challenges ahead
1. Universal participation
2. Low emission/high development paradigm
3. Capacity in the South
4. Science to Action
5. Technology funding
6. Government/Private Sector/NGOs collaboration
7. Kyoto without ratification
8. Building on good practices
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The Realities of Climate Change Emerging Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
(IPCC) Ground Realities:
Increasing Awareness of communities Increasing Extreme Weather Events Experiences of Coping with Climate Variability How to respond to Climate Change
All developments assumed Climate Change Agriculture Infrastructure Ecosystem Management Precipitation
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Responses
Global: IPCC Understanding Science and Reducing Uncertainty
Climate Convention Inter-government Block Negotiations Lowest Common Denominator Big on talks, low on action
Kyoto Protocol: First Small Step Bogged Down South is compromising
lowering bar Global risk increasing
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Responses
National: Create Awareness Some Actions, More Reports Institutionalization Some Integration in Sectors
Private Sector: Early Initiations of CDM Delay dampen enthusiasms New Climate Change Marketing Some feel threatened others look for
opportunities
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NGOs:Greater Research
Raising Concerns and Awareness
Equity Issues Highlighted
Lower Thrust on Commitment, more on
Technical Options
Increasingly reaching from Environment to
Development
Appreciation of Mitigation and adaptation
Southern NGOs, mostly left unsupported
Responses