CEEN 590 Transition to renewables, Course Review, Conclusion

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Outline

California studyReview of courseThemesMobilizing action on climate

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Feasibility of Decarbonization: California Case Study

Sustainable Energy Policy 3

Feasibility of Decarbonization

March 19, 2013 Sustainable Energy Policy 4

Feasible of Decarbonization

Sustainable Energy Policy 5

Feasibility of Decarbonization

Sustainable Energy Policy 6

First half

Week 1 Course overviewWeek 2: Sustainable Energy as a

Social and Political ChallengeWeek 3: Formal Government

Processes – Week 4: Policy process, Actor

Dynamics Week 5: Policy Analysis in a Political

ContextWeek 6: Policy InstrumentsWeek 7: Midterm Exam + nuclear

power

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Second half

Week 8: Energy Planning and Approval Strategies

Week 9: Rest of CanadaWeek 10: Clean energy, international

trade, climate diplomacyWeek 11: The Two Giants: Energy

Policy in China and the USMarch 12: Simulated Multi-

stakeholder Consultation  April 4: Synthesis, Reflection 8

What should be covered that we didn’t address?

Is there a need for more policy-relevant analytical methods?

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What should be reduced or eliminated to make room for new stuff?

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Assignments

Midterm

Simulation and paper – is acting like an advocate an important learning experience?

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pedagogy

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Themes

Climate (clean energy) challenge compounded by temporal and spatial inconsistency

Motivated reasoning: people filter facts through the values/worldview – convincing people with factual reason when implications conflict with their values is a major challenge

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Themes

Authority: ability to make rules backed up by coercive power of the state Found in formal rules and procedures –

understanding them in a necessary step in influence

Who decides? At what level?Power/influence: ability to influence

outcomes More diverse sources

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Themes

Fundamentals to analysis Problem definition Criteria Alternatives Consequences Trade-offs

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Themes

There are a variety of instruments available in clean energy policy, and they come with a different package of attributes and consequences

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Themes

Nuclear power is low GHG but costly and comes with distinctive real and perceived risks

Project planning and approval is complex and there are frequently tradeoffs between quality and coherence on the one hand and political realities on the other

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Themes

Different countries face different challenges because of different resource endowments policy legacies Political cultures Institutions

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Themes

International trade rules constrain the use of certain policy instruments

Collective action dilemma in global diplomacy formidable

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Role of technology

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Concluding Theme 1

Sustainable energy requires that prices reflect their true environmental and social cost

Government action is required to internalize costs

Policy is made by politicians whose core interest is reelection, which discourages them from imposing costs

Sustainable Energy Policy 21

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Transition to clean energy is feasible and affordable

But…we are stuckRequires politicians to raise energy prices

Which is improbable without intense social pressure

Climate politics dilemmahttp://greenpolicyprof.org/wordpress/?p=271http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWq_b-hAJ_8&feature=youtube_gdata

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Energy system transformation:technically feasible and economic affordable

Confidence in one or both instruments to price carbon: Economy wide carbon tax Economy wide cap and trade

Supplementary policies Energy R&D Regulations to foster sector specific

change

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Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030

Stabilisation levels

(ppm CO2-eq)

Range of GDP reduction (%)

445 - 535 < 3

535 - 590 0.2 – 2.5

590 - 710 -0.6 – 1.2

Costs of mitigation in 2030

Concluding Theme (2)

There is a profound tension between

the incentives of politicians to avoid imposing costs

andthe need to use government action to

increase prices

Sustainable Energy Policy 25

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Overcoming obstacles – 2 paths Politicians “lead” – move beyond electorate

Electorate creates incentives for politicians to act Organize Mobilize

Advocacy Alert! My Leap of Faith

Acting according to short term material interest won’t solve the problem

Act because it is the right thing to do

Tahrir Square, February 11, 2011

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Sustainable Energy Policy 32