11Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California, San DiegoCenter for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California, San Diego9500 Gilman Drive #0424, La Jolla, CA 92093-0424, U.S.A9500 Gilman Drive #0424, La Jolla, CA 92093-0424, U.S.A

E-Mail: bvjackson@ucsd.edu Tel: 858-534-3358E-Mail: bvjackson@ucsd.edu Tel: 858-534-335822San Diego Supercomputer Center, University of California, San Diego, San Diego Supercomputer Center, University of California, San Diego,

9500 Gilman Drive #0505, La Jolla, CA 92093-0505, USA9500 Gilman Drive #0505, La Jolla, CA 92093-0505, USA33Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab), Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab), Nagoya University, Furo-cho,

Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601, JapanChikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan

AbstractAbstractAt UCSD, remote-sensing forecast analyses of the inner heliosphere have been regularly carried out using interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data. These analyses have measured and reconstructed the 3-D time-dependent solar wind structure for almost two decades using Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab) IPS observations. More recently we have provided an even more accurate 3-D forecast analyses by incorporating in-situ spacecraft measurements into the remotely-sensed volumes. When using the IPS velocity analyses we can accurately convect-outward solar surface magnetic fields using potential field model techniques, and thus also provide values of the field throughout the global volume. This forecast analysis is being operated in real time at the UCSD website http://ips.ucsd.edu, and at the NASA Goddard Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) website: http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp? The results of these time-dependent 3-D analyses of density, velocity, and vector magnetic field are compared with in-situ measurements obtained in real time near Earth, and are also displayed in real time at all the other inner planets: Mercury, Venus and Mars as well as at the locations of the STEREO A and B spacecraft. We display these forecasts obtained from our UCSD website at this poster presentation, and discuss a metric that we have devised to determine how well these forecasts agree with ongoing in-situ measurements.

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THE 3D GLOBAL FORECAST OF INNER HELIOSPHERE SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS

FROM REMOTELY-SENSED IPS DATABernard Bernard V. JacksonV. Jackson11, John M. Clover, John M. Clover11,, P. Paul HickP. Paul Hick1,21,2, Hsiu-Shan Yu, Hsiu-Shan Yu11, ,

Andrew BuffingtonAndrew Buffington11, and Munetoshi Tokumaru, and Munetoshi Tokumaru33

1. Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS)1. Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS)

USCD currently maintains a near-real-time website that analyzes and displays IPS data from the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab) radio arrays, Japan; the new Toyokawa system is shown. This modeling-analysis capability is also available at the CCMC.

2. UCSD Real-Time IPS Web Pages2. UCSD Real-Time IPS Web PagesUSCD http//:ips.ucsd.edu/

500 km

Density values for the solar wind can be inferred from the ‘normalized scintillation level’ (g-level) of observations of IPS relative to a nominal average. A greater variation in g-level amplitude generally means a higher density along the line of sight.

Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) at meter-wave radio frequencies is the rapid variation in radio signal intensity from a compact source produced by small-scale (100-200 km) variations in the solar wind density. These density variations produce a pattern on the surface of the Earth of similar size and are transported across the Earth’s surface at solar wind propagation speeds.

Speed values for the solar wind can be inferred from the intensity variation by correlating the pattern motion across the surface of the Earth and expressing this as a line-of-sight value.

3. CCMC IPS Real-Time Analysis3. CCMC IPS Real-Time AnalysisSample UCSD IPS real-time time-dependent analysis using STELab data (see demo).

CCMC IPS time-series analyses including the UCSD time-dependent model.

Fisheye Sky Map Fisheye Sky Sweep

Sample UCSD IPS real-time global time-dependent analysis using STELab data (see demo).

Density ecliptic cut Density forecast

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4. Inclusion of 4. Inclusion of In-situIn-situ DataData

A table of the STELab IPS comparison analysis used to forecast solar wind density and velocity in real-time are shown from spring to winter of 2011. The first column lists the Carrington rotation. The comparison correlation for velocity and density shown is given from the time the analysis was run (the STELab data latency when the analysis is run is at least 10 hours) relative to ACE level-0 data one, two, and three days in advance of the IPS analysis run time. The comparison is the difference between the ACE measurement at the forecast and run time vs. the difference between the analysis forecast and its value at the run time.

IPS time series – time of tomographic run compared to ACE one day in advance. The measurement correlation shown is marked in the table (+) to the right. A positive correlation indicates a better than persistence determina-tion of the parameter change from the forecast time for this Carrington rotation.

Density forecast analysis for CR 2114

Although these IPS analyses operate in real time, they are more accurate when used with archival data sets because a greater number of radio sources are available to depict the same structure.

8. Summary and Future8. Summary and Future• The archival IPS 3D reconstruction models (IPS and SMEI) are currently available to be run at the CCMC.• The IPS time-dependent model is run at UCSD in real time daily as IPS data become available from STELab, Japan, for use in space-weather forecasting at UCSD and at the CCMC and for checking the 3D reconstruction model and global heliospheric parameters.• The CCMC (and the National Institute of Information and Communications – NICT, Japan, and the Korean Space Weather Center – KSWC, Jeju, Korea) are currently evaluating the IPS real-time analysis for use in space-weather forecasting at their sites.• Real-time checks of the IPS data feed back into the modeling effort to provide better future remote-sensing analysis and forecasts.

VelocityDensity

(See Jackson et al., Solar Phys., 265, 245-256 2010; and Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Solar Phys. (in press)

The inclusion of in-situ data in the three-dimensional (3-D) reconstructions from recent STELab IPS data provides very accurate “aftcasts”. There is less of a change from in-situ real-time measurements to those remotely-sensed, and the blend from in-situ measurements into the 3-D tomography is seamless. An added benefit to the analysis is that the in-situ analysis appears to “stabilize” and refine the remote-sensing analysis so that it is more accurate with this inclusion.

6. Validation of IPS Density and Velocity Analyses (Forecast) at Earth6. Validation of IPS Density and Velocity Analyses (Forecast) at Earth

Correlation

Analysis CR 2110 – CR 2116 (spring – winter 2011)

Comparison

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5. Magnetic Field Extrapolation5. Magnetic Field Extrapolation

Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19.

Dunn, T., et al., 2005, Solar Phys., 227, 339–353.

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences (in press)

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Sample forecasts (see demo).

Density and velocity forecasts (above), three days later (below).

Sample forecast; also runs in real time (see demo).

Radial Magnetic Field

7. Real-Time operation 7. Real-Time operation See: http://ips.ucsd.edu and, http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp? at the CCMC.(The authors of this effort will demonstrate the current real-time operation when asked.)

Global density remote view.

ReferencesDunn, T., Jackson, B.V., Hick, P.P., Buffington, A., and Zhao, X.P., 2005, “Comparative Analyses of the CSSS Calculation in the UCSD Tomographic Solar Observations”, Solar Phys. 227, 339-353.

Jackson, B.V., Hick, P.P., Bisi, M.M., Clover, J.M., and Buffington, A., 2010, “Inclusion of in-situ Velocity Measurements in the UCSD Time-Dependent Tomography to Constrain and Better-Forecast Remote-Sensing Observations”, Solar Phys., 265, 245-256, doi: 10.1007/s11207-010-9529-0.

Jackson, B.V., Hick, P.P., Bisi, M.M., Clover, J.M., and Buffington, A., 2012, “Inclusion of Real-Time in-situ Measurements into the UCSD Time-Dependent Tomography and Its Use as a Forecast Algorithm”, Solar Phys., (in press).

Jackson, B.V., Hick, P.P., Buffington, A., Clover, J.M., and Tokumaru, M., 2012, “Forecasting Transient Heliospheric Solar Wind Parameters at the Locations of the Inner Planets’”, Adv. in Geosciences, (in press).

Zhao, X.P., and Hoeksema, J.T. (1995), “”, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19.

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Solar Phys. (in press)

Tangential Magnetic Field

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