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China’s Low Carbon Scenario under global 2 degree target
Kejun [email protected]
Energy Research Institute, China
ERI, ChinaERI, China
Keyword: Transition – mitigation to reach some climate change targets
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100-5
0
5
10
15
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100-5
0
5
10
15
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100-5
0
5
10
15
N=76N=27
Category III(< 440-485 ppm CO
2)
Category II(< 400-440 ppm CO
2)
without neg. emissions
with neg. emissions
Em
issi
on
s (G
tC)
Category I(< 400 ppm CO
2)
N=19
3
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.0019
90
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
坐标
轴标
题
CO2
L.A
Africa
M.E
S.E.Asia
CPA
EFSU
P-OECD
W-OECD
USA
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
百万
吨碳
CO2 排放量
Baseline
LC
ELC
2度情景
Is This Real? Feasible?
Is This Real? Feasible?
Go much behind the pictures
Present in detail for key factors
Join modeling forums/workshops/projects
Make study on key factors: economy structure change, carbon pricing, roadmap for new technologies, CCS etc.
Make data transparency
Publication/public available
Keep a good modeling research team for long time
6
What’s the future of China’s low carbon policy: key factors
• Economic structure optimization policies• Energy efficiency policies• Renewable energy/nuclear power generation oriented policies• CCS• Low carbon consumption/ lifestyle• Land use emission reduction policies: so far relatively poor• Climate change target: China is key part of that• Can we pay for it? Cost and benefit
77
工业分部门投资
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050年份
亿元
建筑业
自来水的生产和供应业
煤气的生产和供应业
蒸汽热水生产供应业
电力生产供应业
其他工业
仪器仪表文化办公用机械
电气机械及器材、 电子及通信设备制造业
交通运输设备制造业
普通机械、 专用设备制造业
金属制品业
有色金属
黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业
非金属矿物制品业
橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业
化学纤维制造业
医药制造业
化学原料及制品制造业
炼焦业
石油加工
印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业
造纸及纸制品业
木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业
服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造
纺织业
烟草加工业
食品饮料加工、 制造业
非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业
有色金属矿采选业
黑色金属矿采选业
天然气开采业
石油
煤炭采选业
农业
Investment by industrial sectors
8
Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC
Uni t 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050Steel Mi l l i on ton 355 610 570 440 360Cement Mi l l i on ton 1060 1600 1600 1200 900
Gl assMi l l i oncases 399 650 690 670 580
Copper Mi l l i on ton 2. 6 7 7 6. 5 4. 6Ammoni a Mi l l i on ton 8. 51 16 16 15 12Ethyl ene Mi l l i on ton 5. 1 7. 2 7 6. 5 5. 5Soda Ash Mi l l i on ton 14. 67 23 24. 5 23. 5 22Casuti c Mi l l i on ton 12. 64 24 25 25 24Paper Mi l l i on ton 62. 05 110 115 120 120Ferti l i zerMi l l i on ton 52. 2 61 61 61 61Al umi num Mi l l i on ton 7. 56 34 36 36 33Paper Mi l l i on ton 46. 3 50 50 50 45Cal ci um carbi deMi l l i on ton 8. 5 10 8 7 4
9
Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario
Uni t 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050Steel Kgce/t 760 650 564 554 545Cement Kgce/t 132 101 86 81 77
Gl assKgce/WeightCases 24 18 14. 5 13. 8 13. 1
Bri ck Kgce/万块 685 466 433 421 408Ammoni a Kgce/t 1645 1328 1189 1141 1096Ethyl ene Kgce/t 1092 796 713 693 672Soda Ash Kgce/t 340 310 290 284 279Casuti c Kgce/t 1410 990 890 868 851Cal ci um carbi de Kgce/t 1482 1304 1215 1201 1193Copper Kgce/t 1273 1063 931 877 827Al umi num kWh/t 14320 12870 12170 11923 11877Paper Kgce/t 1047 840 761 721 686El ectri ci ty fossi l f uel Gce/kWh 350 305 287 274 264
10
高效照明【如 LED 照明】
光伏电池
能源检测系统(家用电器 )
生态生活教育
减少 60% 采暖需求 ,普及率 70%
(25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池,转换效率接近 30%
COP =8, 普及率 100%
超高效空调
太阳热利用普及率 : 20-60%
(目前 6% )
热泵采暖COP = 5普及率 30-70%
燃料电池普及率 0-20%
高效绝热
减少 50% 照明需求,普及率 100%
待机电源耗电降低 1/3 , 普及率 100%
2050 年的低碳住宅舒适和节能
屋顶植被
5
太阳能利用
高效家用电器 减少能源需求,支持舒适和安全生活方式
向公众提供经济和环境信息促使大家成为
低碳消费
减少 10-20% 能源需求
11
Transport, Low carbon scenario
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Family car ownership, per 100HH Urban 3.37 14 36 65 77 78
Rural 0.08 0.2 8 38 70 90Family car annual travel distance, km 9500 9500 9300 8635 8300 7480Average engin size of family cars, litter 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4Fuel efficiency of car, L/100km 9.2 8.9 7.1 5.9 4.8 4.1Share of MRT in total traffic volume, % 0.011 0.016 0.025 0.046 0.1 0.21Share of Biofuel, % 1.10% 1.30% 4.1% 7.70% 12% 13%Share of electric car, % 0% 0.12% 3.2% 6.80% 12.5% 19.8%Share of fuel cell car, % 0% 0% 0.80% 1.60% 4.70% 7.90%
Rapid bus: using existing rapid road
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Power Generation
Bio
Solar
Wind
Nulcear
Hydro
N.Gas
Oil fired
Coal fired
1414
CCS future
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
%
I GCC-Fuel Cel lI GCCUS-Cri t i calSuper Cri t i calLarge Coal Uni tSaml l Coal
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtS
O2
SO2 Emission
BaU
LC
ELC
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
1000
ton
Black Carbon Emission in China
BaU
LowCarbon
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mt
NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario
Other
Power generation
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050M
ton
PM2.5 Emission
Other
Power generation
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ton
Mercury Emission
Other
Power generation
16
Bubble size corresponds to incremental energy provided or avoided in 2025. The reference point is the “business as usual” mix in 2025. The horizontal axis includes sustainability as well as traditional aspects of sufficiency, reliability, and affordability. The vertical axis illustrates lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity. Bubble placements are based on quantitative analysis and ERI expert judgment.
Positive Climate Characteristics
IncreaseEnergy
Security
Nuclear
BuildingEfficiency
Expanded DomesticOil Production
Business As UsualIn 2025
Corn Ethanol
A Snapshot of Selected China Energy Options Today:Climate and Energy Security Impacts and Tradeoffs in 2025
Wind
Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU
Gas-to-Liquids
CellulosicEthanol
ReduceEnergy
Security
Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand barrels of oil per day) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU
Coal-to-Liquids(with carbon capture)
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
Imports
CO2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery
Negative Climate Characteristics
For specific details on the assumptions underlying the options on this chart, go to www.wri.org/usenergyoptions
Revised 7/10/2008
Hydro
Nuclear
Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standard
IndustryEfficiency
Hydro
Wind
Ultra-Super Critical
Solar PV
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
ImportsClean Coal
(IGCC) with CO2
Capture
Coal-to-Liquids(no carbon
capture)
Biodiesel
Plug-InHybrids
Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by comparing low energy scenario and policy BaU
Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand barrels of oil per day) by comparing policy BaU scenario and BaU
IndustryEfficiency
Oil Imports
Oil Imports
BiomassPower
17
Close-loop subcritical
Drysubcritical
Open-loopsubcritical
Close-loop SC with CCS
Close-loop SC
Open-loop SC with CCS
Dry SCwith CCS
Dry SC
Open-loop SC
Close-loop USCwith CCS
Close-loop USC
Dry USC with CCS
Open-loop USC with CCS
Dry USC
Close-loop IGCC with CCS
Open-loopIGCC with
CCS
Open-loop USC
Open-loop IGCC
Close-loopIGCC
Close-loop NGCC
Open-loopNGCC
Dry NGCC with CCS(run-of-river)
Hydro
Dry NGCC
Open-loop nuclear
Close-loop nuclear
Open-loop NGCC with CCS
Close-loop solar thermal
Wind
Close-loop NGCC with CCS
Dry solar thermal
Solar PV
Geothermal
Hydro (dam)
Top 1000 companies energy efficiency program
Energy efficiencyfor buildings
1,000,000 MWh/yr
500,000MWh/yrThis size = 100,000 MWh/yr
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
-350 -150 50 250 450 650 850 1050
Wat
er co
nsum
ption
(m
3 /M
Wh)
Greenhouse gas emission (Kg CO2/MWh)
Water consumption and greenhouse gas emission of energy generation technologies
18
28 key technologies in the enhanced low carbon scenario in China
No. Sector Technology Description Note1 High energy
efficiencyequipment
High efficiency furnace,kiln, waste heat recoverysystem, high efficiencyprocess technologies,advanced electric motor
Nearly inmarket
2 New manufactureprocess technologyfor cement and steel
3 CCS In cement, steel making,refinery, ethylenemanufacture
4 Super high efficiencydiesel vehicle
Advanced diesel hybridengine
5 Electric car6 Fuel cell car7 High efficiency
aircraft30% higher energyefficiency
8 Bio-fuel aircraft9 Super high efficiency
air-conditionerWith COP>7
10 LED lighting11 In house renewable
energy systemSolar PV/Wind/Solar hotwater and space heating
12 Heat pumps Mature13 High isolation
buildingMature
14 High efficiencyelectric appliance
Maturebefore 2030
15 IGCC/Poly-Generation
With efficiency above 55%
16 IGCC/Fuel cell With efficiency above 60%17 On shore Wind Mature18 Off shore wind Mature
before 202019 Solar PV20 Solar Thermal21 4th Generation
Nuclear22 Advanced NGCC With efficiency above 65%23 Biomass IGCC24 CCS in power
generation25 Second generation
bio-ethanol26 Bio-diesel Vehicles, ships, vessels27 Grid Smart grid28 Circulating
tecnologiesRecycle, reuse,reducing materialuse
Alternative fuels
Powergeneration
Building
Transport
Industrytechnology
19
Can we do it: Peak before 2025?
• Economic structure will change soon, pushing by policy or wait until market decide(this will cause big problem for low capacity utilization)
• Technology is ready• Economic ability is getting much stronger to pay for low
carbon development• Global target need us move faster• Low carbon development is getting to be a main stream in
China
分部门能源消费量 , Energy demand by sector, 1995-2010
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
农、
林、
牧、
渔业
采掘
业煤
炭开
采和
洗选
业石
油和
天然
气开
采业
黑色
金属
矿采
选业
有色
金属
矿采
选业
非金
属矿
采选
业其
他采
矿业
农副
食品
加工
业食
品制
造业
饮料
制造
业烟
草制
品业
纺织
业纺
织服
装、
鞋、
帽制
造业
皮革
、毛
皮、
羽毛
(绒)及
其制
品业
木材
加工
及木
、竹
、藤
、棕
、草
制品
业
家具
制造
业造
纸及
纸制
品业
印刷
业和
记录
媒介
的复
制文
教体
育用
品制
造业
石油
加工
、炼
焦及
核燃
料加
工业
化学
原料
及化
学制
品制
造业
医药
制造
业化
学纤
维制
造业
橡胶
制品
业塑
料制
品业
非金
属矿
物制
品业
黑色
金属
冶炼
及压
延加
工业
有色
金属
冶炼
及压
延加
工业
金属
制品
业通
用设
备制
造业
专用
设备
制造
业交
通运
输设
备制
造业
电气
机械
及器
材制
造业
通信
设备
、计
算机
及其
他电
子设
备制
造业
仪器
仪表
及文
化、
办公
用机
械制
造业
工艺
品及
其他
制造
业废
弃资
源和
废旧
材料
回收
加工
业电
力、
煤气
及水
生产
和供
应业
电力
、热
力的
生产
和供
应业
燃气
生产
和供
应业
水的
生产
和供
应业
建筑
业交
通运
输、
仓储
和邮
政业
批发
、零
售业
和住
宿、
餐饮
业其
他行
业生
活消
费
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
21
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
10^8
Yuan
Year
Investment in Energy Industry in China
BaU
HLC
HELC
LLC
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
10^8
Yuan
Year
Energy Expenditures in China
BaU
HLC
HELC
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000
Industry Transport Building Total
10^8
Yuan
Year
Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
2010 2020 2030 2050 2075 2100
GDP Loss, %
650ppm
550ppm
450ppm
Per Capita
Carbon Intensity
22
Good News: Rapid GDP growth could provide strong support
• By 2015, GDP in China could reach 75trillion Yuan(in current value)
• Newly added accumulated GDP is 450 Trillion Yuan• Cumulated GDP is 860 Trillion Yuan• All the investment need in all modeling study is much small
What is the role of technologies in the mitigation?
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2005 2010 2020 2030 2050
Inde
x, 2
005=
1
Year
Technology learning curve
Fuel Cell IGCC
Hydrogen Car
Poly-Generation
Solar Thermal Power
PV
4th Generation Nuclear
Off shore wind
on shore wind
Biomass Power
Advanced NGCC
Electic Car
CCS
Solar 2010
Wind 2010
CCS-PostC
CCS-Enduse
LED Lighting
24
Policy roadmap: Super high efficiency air conditioner
• Efficiency Standard: COP, MEPS• Government Planning• Subsidy
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Start COP
四、影响电动汽车发展的主要制约因素分析 4. Analysis Major Constraints Factors
3.3 电动汽车实现经济性的趋势分析 Trend Analysis on EVs
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2005 2010 2020 2030 2050
Inde
x, 2
005=
1
Year
Technology learning curve
Fuel Cell IGCC
Hydrogen Car
Poly-Generation
Solar Thermal Power
PV
4th Generation Nuclear
Off shore wind
on shore wind
Biomass Power
Advanced NGCC
Electic Car
CCS
Solar 2010
Wind 2010
CCS-PostC
CCS-Enduse
LED Lighting
Price: US$38000Subsidy: US$15000(Shanghai), no need to apply number plate(cost US$10000) US$18000(Beijing), no need to apply number plate(By Oct. 2012, 1.1 million people apply for 20000number plates per month),
By 2020, Wind 200GW to 250GW, Solar 50WG
27
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mtc
ePrimary Energy Demand in Beijing
BaU
Policy Scenario
Ehanced Policy
Peak CO2 emission by 2015, to be a low carbon city by 2030, comparable with Tokyo, and Shanghai, Tianjin are thinking in similar way
29
Renewable Energy
• Renewable Energy Planning 2006: wind 30GW, Solar 2GW by 2020
• 2009 Energy Bureau: Wind 80WG• 2010 Energy Planning: Wind 150 GW, Solar 20GW by 2020
• Now: Wind 200GW to 250GW, Solar 50WG
• Based on the conclusion from Chinese Academy for Engineering, grid in China could adopt these renewable energy power generation in short term.
30
Natural Gas Scenarios
• In 2010,Natural Gas use 107.2BCM, while 12.2BCM imported.
• In our low carbon scenario: by 2030, 370BCM
• NEA’s planning: 260BCM by 2015/230BCM