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Cities as Systems

Dr. Colin HarrisonIBM Distinguished Engineer Emeritus

colinh@us.ibm.com2013 European Forum Alpbach

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Cities, Systems, and Systems Science*

• City– “....Cities generally have complex systems for sanitation, utilities, land

usage, housing, and transportation. The concentration of development greatly facilitates interaction between people and businesses, benefiting both parties in the process. “

• System– “A set of connected things or parts forming a complex whole.”– “A set of things working together as parts of a mechanism or an

interconnecting network.”• System Science

– “An interdisciplinary field of science that studies the nature of complex systems in nature, society, and science. “

*See www.wikipedia.org

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Example: The Urban Water Cycle

Locate

Deliver

Consume

Capture and Store

Clean/ Desalinate

Locate

Deliver

Consume

Capture and Store

Clean/ Desalinate

Quality monitoring Filtration membranes Energy for filtration or

desalination

Asset management Flow management Leaks and overflows Interactions with

traffic

Demand reduction On premise leaks & waste Discharge to sewers

Quality monitoring Weather modeling Energy for pumping

Recovery of treated water

Hydrological modeling

Weather modeling Water Rights

4Question: How to allocate resources during a sandstorm?

MASDAR – A Net-Zero City (2008)

Water Desalination

PHEV Transportation

Public SafetyDistrict Cooling

Residential & Industrial

Consumers

Resource Supplies

Solar Energy Generation

© 2008 Foster & Partners

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Systems Effects and Resources Constraints

• “Slack” or excess capacity produces weak interactions• Interactions become stronger when resources are

constrained• Under severe constraints – tipping points• Examples:

– Energy: MASDAR, Malta, Canary Wharf/London, Lower Manhattan….– Water: Middle East, US Western States, China (2030)– Transportation: Mexico City, Stockholm, China, India– Finance: <pretty much everywhere>– Economic Development: <pretty much everywhere>

• Conclusion: In the future, we need to take a systems view of the development and management of cities and regions

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Scaling Laws for Cities

• Super-linear and sub-linear effects of scale

– C.f. Biological systems• Network Effects

– Density of connections– Infrastructure– Social– Economic

• Physical models for how cities grow– The Hamiltonian of a City– Kirchoff’s Law

• Researchers– Arizona State University– University of Chicago– NYU CUSP– Santa Fe Institute

1. The Origins of Scaling in Cities, Luis Bettencourt, Science June 21, 2013, Vol. 340, no. 6139, pp. 1438-14412. A Theory of City Size, Michael Batty, Science June 21, 2013, Vol. 340, no. 6139, pp. 1418-1419

How do cities work as complex systems?

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Input-Output Models of Urban Systems

• Model cities as providers and consumers of services– “service” means any public, private, or individual capability that can be invoked– Agent-based models (individuals, exemplars, organizations…)– Consumption of inputs and production of outputs and by-products– Boundary problems

• Generate understanding– Resource consumption flows and contributions to local GDP– Environmental impacts– Resilience dependencies– Policy options– Individual decision-making

• Researchers– EUNOIA– Imperial College, London– U. Chicago– EC CORDIS

How do cities work at the street level?

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Urban Systems

Information

Capture

Structure Integrate

Store

Typology Taxonomy

Networks Scaling

Economics

Basic Resources

Natural Environment

Flows & Connections

Built Environment

Integrated Simulations

Engineers

Urbanists Transportation Planners

Transportation Managers

Energy/Utility Managers

Public SafetyManagers

Public HealthManagers

Environmental Managers

Economic DevelopmentLeaders

Urban Systems Analysts

Social Scientists

Civic Groups / Open Data

Many Stakeholders in Cities

Architects

Political LeadersCitizens

Policy Makers

Industrial Networks

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The Need for an Urban Science

• Many professions and disciplines study cities– Independent and un-integrated views, metrics, insights

• Metaphor of 19th century medicine– Treatment of symptoms rather than causes– Multiple specialties with isolated diagnoses & treatments– No systemic view of the body– No abstract principles and patterns

• Movement emerging for an Urban Science– New instrumentation drives new science – Smart Cities, Internet of

Things– New techniques for understanding complex, interacting systems – Big

Data• Hence, we have motivation and ability

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Urban Systems

Capture

Structure Integrate

Store

Typology Taxonomy

Networks Scaling

Economics

Basic Resources

Natural Environment

Flows & Connections

Built Environment

Integrated Simulations

Engineers

Urbanists Transportation Planners

Transportation Managers

Energy/Utility Managers

Public SafetyManagers

Public HealthManagers

Environmental Managers

Economic DevelopmentLeaders

Urban Systems Analysts

Social Scientists

Civic Groups / Open Data

Many Sources of Knowledge in Cities

Architects

Political LeadersCitizens

Policy Makers

Industrial Networks

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Global Systems Science* Challenges for Urban Systems

1. Formal representation of Urban Systems2. Flower Collecting & Modeling -> Patterns & Principles3. What is the City trying to do?4. What real-world questions do we intend to answer?

1. Healthcare2. Education3. Crime4. “Quality of Life”5. Resource consumption & production6. Innovation & economic growth

5. Transformation for the future

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Global Research Community Emerging

• EC CORDIS / Global Systems Science -> Horizons 2020– U. Barcelona– U. London– Imperial College London– ETH Zurich & Singapore– CNRS, Paris– ….?

• USA– Santa Fe Institute– Arizona State University / School of Sustainability– U. Chicago– New York University / Center for Urban Science and Progress– Portland State University

• China?• Smart Cities Industry

– Arup, IBM, Cisco, Google, Microsoft, Siemens, Veolia…– US Dept. of Energy / Smart Cities consortium

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Thanks for your attention!

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Backup

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The Urban Water Cycle

Locate

Deliver

Consume

Capture and Store

Clean/ Desalinate

Quality monitoring Filtration membranes Energy for filtration or

desalination

Asset management Flow management Leaks and overflows Interactions with

traffic

Demand reduction On premise leaks & waste Discharge to sewers

Quality monitoring Weather modeling Energy for pumping

Recovery of treated water

Hydrological modeling

Weather modeling Water Rights

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The Urban Water Cycle

NaturalWater

Sources

RawWater

Transport

CleanWaterSupply

ConsumersSewage

Treatment

Recycled/Treated

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Water Desalination

PHEV Transportation

Public SafetyDistrict Cooling

Residential & Industrial

Consumers

Resource Supplies

Solar Energy Generation

MASDAR – A Net-Zero City (2008)

Question: How to allocate resources during a sandstorm?

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Systems Dynamics for Urban Systems

© 2009 IBM Corporation

How do cities evolve?

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People SystemsPeople to People

People to Services

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Urban Systems are the composition of services derived from the natural and built environments that we model as a large

number of GIS layers

Natural Environment

Environment ResourcesTopography

Roads Buildings

Infrastructure

UtilitiesLand Use

Air Oil

Resources

MineralsWater

Information

Services

Energy Water TransportBuilding Services

Social Systems

People Commerce PolicyCulture

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Global Systems Science* Challenges for Urban Systems1. Formal representation of Urban Systems

• Structures of components• Interactions (P2P, P2S, S2P, S2S)• Inter-dependencies (P<-S, S<-S)

2. Spatial, Temporal, and Domain Integration• “Single View of the Truth”• What real-world problems are we trying to solve?

3. The Need for Flower Collecting• Patterns & Principles to simplify model building

4. Scientific Modeling and Practical Modeling• Understanding and insight• Support for decision-making• Rule of one hand – tipping points

5. Resource consumption & production• Natural and Man-Made resources• By-products, waste• Economic outcomes

6. View of “what is the City trying to do?”• “Real-time” sensing of interactions, resource consumption & production• Match between intention and capabilities• City as a Design Problem – How well does it work?

7. Transformation of how the city works• Transition from Industrial Age to Information Age• Planning for One

*See: http://blog.global-systems-science.eu/