1 Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead Oakham School 9 th September 2008 N.K. Tovey ( ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови

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Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind?Hard Choices Ahead

Oakham School 9th September 2008

N.K. Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук

Energy Science Director CRed ProjectHSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal5th October 2007

CRed

Carbon Reduction

2

• What causes Climate Change?

• Is it man made or natural?

• Are there other issues we also need to consider?

• Energy Security

Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind?Hard Choices Ahead

33

Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)

Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

4

Increasing Occurrence of Drought

5

Increasing Occurrence of Flood

6Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

T

em

pe

ratu

re R

ise

(oC

) actual

predicted

Is Global Warming man made?

Prediction: Anthropogenic only

Not a good match between 1920 and 1970

Predictions include:

• Greenhouse Gas emissions

• Sulphates and ozone

• Solar and volcanic activity6

7


Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

Prediction: Natural only

good match until 1960




• Solar and volcanic activity

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(oC

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(oC

)

actual

predicted

7

8

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Te

mp

era

ture

Ris

e (o

C)

actualpredicted

Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic

Generally a good match




• Solar and volcanic activity


8

9

19792003

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region

• NASA satellite imagery

• الجليد الصيفالقطب في

تغطية الشماليالقطبيه المنطقة

• الصور ناساالفضاءيه

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

في ٪ 20• سنوات 24تخفيض

المناختغير كاب القطبيه الجليديه على 2003 - 1979 اثار

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http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

5 hot air balloons per person per year. 相当于每人排放 5 个热气

球

In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per

person 在发展中国家，这一水平低于 1 个热气球

Is this Fair? 这公平吗？

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes

of CO2 each year.

每一个英国人每年排放 9 吨 CO2

“Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little.”

‘没有人犯的错误比他不做任何事更大，因为他认为他的行动微不足道Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

11Per capita Carbon Emissions

JapanUK

What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?

12

r

13

Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

0123456789

10

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Wh

oles

ale

Pri

ce (

p/k

Wh

)

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

potential contribution to Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently

35%)Available now (but is

now running out)

~2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

UK becomes net importer of

gas in 2004

Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed

Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could

supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect

this

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

potential contribution to Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently

35%)Available now (but is

now running out)

~2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Inst

all

ed C

ap

aci

ty (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

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On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

1717


~ 2p


Cost in2020


Scroby Sands, one of UK’s first off shore wind farms has had major technical problems but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60%

needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

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~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at

Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW

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Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km

But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

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10+ p

Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

50% + available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

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10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately

techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%

4 - 8p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


22


10+ p


2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p

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Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p


10+ p


2.5 - 4

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Output (MWh)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

01/0

1/20

02

15/0

1/20

02

29/0

1/20

02

12/0

2/20

02

26/0

2/20

02

12/0

3/20

02

26/0

3/20

02

09/0

4/20

02

23/0

4/20

02

07/0

5/20

02

21/0

5/20

02

04/0

6/20

02

18/0

6/20

02

02/0

7/20

02

16/0

7/20

02

30/0

7/20

02

13/0

8/20

02

27/0

8/20

02

10/0

9/20

02

24/0

9/20

02

08/1

0/20

02

22/1

0/20

02

05/1

1/2

002

19/1

1/2

002

03/1

2/20

02

17/1

2/20

02

31/1

2/20

02

Out

put

(MW

h pe

r da

y)

Output 78 000 MWh per annum from 1 barrier

Sufficient for twice the houses in Orkney

Save 40000 tonnes of CO2

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10+ p


2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our power stations NOW - Apart from small schemes it is not available at present.

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for

next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power

• Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation?

>>>>>>

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and

electricity from GAS

• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal?

-the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

27Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

Responding to the Challenge: Technical SolutionsSolar Thermal Energy

• Filling up with petrol (~£45 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

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Raising Awareness• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing

machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons

at a cost of over £6 per year

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old

persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

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The Behavioural Dimension

Electricity Consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7No. people

Ave

rage

kW

h/m

onth

• Household size has little impact on electricity

consumption.

• Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given

household size.

• Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more.

• Education/Awareness is important

CommandButton1

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Transport: Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour

• Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris

• Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph.

• Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10%%

New Vehicles:

A Hybrid Vehicle

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Distance

(km)Average Passenger Nos

carbon factor gms/pass-km

Norwich - Peterborough 05:52 132.2 58.4 (Max:67 Min 50) 31.9Peterborough - Edinburgh 07:46 509.7 297.9 (Max: 391, MIN:219) 26.3

Edinburgh - Aberdeen 12:06 183.8 116.3 Max 173; Min 64) 31.2

Carbon Emissions from Train Travel

Norwich -Peterborough Edinburgh - AberdeenPeterborough - Edinburgh

Analysing Results on Journey

Energy Field Course 2007 Travelling en route to Orkney

To be more environmentally friendly it would need 6 people in a small family car or 8 - 9 in a People

Carrier

A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future未来的低碳之路

1. 不要浪费能源 Awareness

3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy

4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting

2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Solutions

Conclusions• Global Warming and Energy Security issues will affect us all - in

next few decades.• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of

energy and small changes to behaviour. It is as much about the individual’s response to use of

energy as any technical measures Governments may take.• Sensible integrated design of buildings, incorporating innovative

use of renewable energy are also important.

• 全球变暖和能源安全将在今后几十年影响我们• 节约能源、在本地发电以及改变我们的行为

每个人可以做很多事情针对能源的使用，政府也可采取技术措施。

• 统一协调地对建筑进行设计，创新地使用可再生能源也很重要。

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WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/

This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links

• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

Conclusions

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.“

（直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”

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• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine.

• On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity

Involve the local Community

Documents

1 Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead Oakham School 9 th September 2008 N.K. Tovey ( ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови