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Climate change…Impacts, vulnerabilities…Adaptation, land use,

territorial cohesion…Spatial planning…Eco-innovations

No challenges stand in isolation

Ronan UhelHead, Natural Systems and Vulnerability

European Environment Agency

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Why is adaptation important ?Why is adaptation important ?

• Climate change cannot be totally avoided• Anticipatory adaptation can be more effective

and less costly than “retrofitting” or “emergency adaptation”

• Climate change may be more rapid and pronounced than currently known

• Immediate benefits from adaptation to current climate variability and extreme events

• Avoid maladaptive policies and practices

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Direct losses from weather and climate Direct losses from weather and climate related disastersrelated disasters

•The number of disastrous weather and climate related events in Europe increased by about 65% over 1998-2007 compared to the 1980s

•About 95% of economic losses caused by catastrophic events in Europe since 1980 are attributable to climate and weather. This is mainly due to socio-economic development but changing patterns of weather disasters are also drivers.

•In the second half of the century more severe effects of climate change on economic assets

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In search of reactive, corrective and In search of reactive, corrective and anticipative Measures and Technologiesanticipative Measures and Technologies

‘The existence of a possible threat from

climate change in itself acts as a stimulus

to innovators, and eco-innovation may

prove the next battle ground for the

reputation of patents.’ 

European Patents Organisation, 2009

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Vulnerable sectorsVulnerable sectors

• Ecosystems and biodiversity

• Agriculture and forestry

• Water resources, flooding, water quality

• Coastal zones, marine resources, fisheries

• Tourism

• Energy (supply and demand)

• Built environment, infrastructure

• Human health

• Land management, regional planning (cross-cutting)

• Insurance services

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Impact, Adaptation, VulnerabilityImpact, Adaptation, Vulnerability

exposure sensitivity adaptation,adaptive capacity

impact

vulnerability

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Cities in the frontline...

8080%

of Europeans soon ’urban’

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Heat and health…Heat and health…

…up to water management up to water management

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High Temperatures Range of actionsand techniques available to increase adaptivecapacity

Shaw, R., Colley, M., and Connell, R. (2007)Climate change adaptation by design: a guide for sustainable communities.TCPA, London

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Cool down… …Cool down… …air TREE air TREE concept!concept!

Viva Madrid

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…TREE in cities…

Up to 10 C difference between peri-urban and central areas

100 m2 of trees help reduce T by 1 C

Green surfaces 10 C cooler than artificial ones

…but there is more…

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Intensive uptake and sealing of soil surface

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...causing more damaging flash floods...causing more damaging flash floods

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More control of water run offsMore control of water run offs

• Preventive measures including good housekeeping and rainwater harvesting

• Vegetated landscape features with smooth surfaces and a gentle downhill gradient to drain water evenly off impermeable surfaces

• Infiltration devices, such as soakaways, which allow water to drain directly into the ground

• Permeable and porous pavements• Basins, reed beds and ponds designed to hold

water when it rains • Green roofs and reuse of water

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Mimic natural processes!Mimic natural processes!

Source: UK Environment Agency

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Green roofing, Europe lagging behind Green roofing, Europe lagging behind

• Stormwater management, and hence potential savings since the number of drainage outlets required on a building can be reduced

• Reduced urban heat island effect by reducing building heat loss and increasing evapotranspiration

• Creating natural green spaces in urban areas bringing benefits for biodiversity

• Reduced energy consumption and fuel costs, since green roofs provide cooling in summer and thermal insulation in winter

• Reduced air pollution• Extended roof life. The green roof protects the roof’s

waterproofing membrane, almost doubling its life expectancy

Living Roofs www.livingroofs.orgGreen Roofs for healthy cities www.greenroofs.net

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Greening the roofs…manage water!Greening the roofs…manage water!

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Are cities to blame ?

Photo: Jörg Thiemann-Linden

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Turn urbanisation

into an opportunity !

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ACE Declaration on Architecture and Sustainability:

•Change practices

•Sustainable design

•Foster environment competence

•Institutional leadership

•Interdisciplinary approaches

•Broaden service & outreach

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…also streamlined responses from professionals

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Crop for …food…feed…fuel – All?Crop for …food…feed…fuel – All?

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Growing season for agricultural cropsGrowing season for agricultural crops

• A further lengthening of the growing season is projected • In western and southern Europe the limited water availability and high temperature will hinder

plant growth

• The lengths of the growing season of several agricultural crops has increased in the North, favouring the introduction of new species

• Locally in the south there is a shortening of growing season, with higher risk of damages from delayed spring frost

past

futu

re

Rate of change of crop growing Rate of change of crop growing season length 1975-2007season length 1975-2007

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Crop-yield variabilityCrop-yield variability

• More variable crop yields because extreme weather events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude

• Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme weather events

past

futu

re

Sensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheatSensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheat

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Agro-climatic zone - Risks and opportunities

European CommissionAdaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural SectorAGRI-2006-G4-05

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What about vertical farming?What about vertical farming?

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……some fast cropping concepts! some fast cropping concepts!

35 Source: Corporate Communications City of Melbourne

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River flow droughtRiver flow drought

• Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts in many regions of Europe• Southern and south-eastern Europe are most prone to an increase in drought hazard, but

minimum river flows will also increase in many other regions

• Europe has been affected by several major droughts in recent decades (e.g. 2003 in central parts and 2005 in the Iberian Peninsula)

• Climate change has probably increased the frequency/severity of droughts in some regions

past

futu

re

Change in the severity of river flow Change in the severity of river flow droughts in Europe 1962-1990droughts in Europe 1962-1990

Relative change in meanRelative change in meansummer minimum 7-day summer minimum 7-day river flow between river flow between 2071-2100 and 1961-19902071-2100 and 1961-1990

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Draft EU Guidance: How to adapt to climate change with Draft EU Guidance: How to adapt to climate change with regard to water issues and EU water legislationregard to water issues and EU water legislation

• Being prepared by countries and Commission (Water FWD) for river basin management plans (RBMP) due in 2015, only few 2009 RBMPs include adaptation

National

Adaptation Strategies

Wade et al., adapted by EEA

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Coming to Coastal areas…Coming to Coastal areas…

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100 Mt of sediments lost to coastal systems every year! River management hinterland!

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Coastal new design…Coastal new design…

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……or an opportunity?or an opportunity?

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May be reinventing ancient cities?May be reinventing ancient cities?

Seuthopolis -300 BC

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Tourism and recreation…Tourism and recreation…

Simulated conditions for summer tourism in Europe (IPCC SRES Simulated conditions for summer tourism in Europe (IPCC SRES A2 scenario)A2 scenario)

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How to approach innovation?How to approach innovation?

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……or bring skiing to cities?or bring skiing to cities?

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fundingguidance exchange

Is that sufficient?

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Human health for instance…Human health for instance…

• More extreme weather events, including heat waves

• Increased air pollution (eg. ozone)• Increased vector-borne illnesses• Increased illnesses from food and water

contamination• Increased disparities in health status

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Vector-borne diseasesVector-borne diseases

Aedes albopictusAedes albopictus (the tiger mosquito) (the tiger mosquito)

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Vector-borne diseasesVector-borne diseases

• Increasing risk of vector-borne transmission of diseases and in number of days suitable for the survival of malaria vectors. However the risk of localised malaria transmission is low.

• The tiger mosquito, a transmitter of various viruses extended its range over the past 15 years• Ticks and Lyme disease and TBE are moving into higher altitudes and latitudes• Changes in the distribution of the sand-fly with a higher risk of Leishmania cases further north

past

futu

re

Presence of the tiger mosquitoPresence of the tiger mosquito in January 2008 in January 2008

Areas of possible establishment of Areas of possible establishment of tiger mosquito in Europe 2030tiger mosquito in Europe 2030

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• Regional and local governmental organizations, NGOs and the private sector have started to adopt new policies, regulations and standards accounting for climate change (role of insurance sector)

• Measures mainly in areas with a long tradition of dealing with climate extremes such as flood defence

• Many adaptation actions have been initiated because of the substantial losses from extreme weather events in recent years

• Policies and measures designed to address long-term climate change impacts have not been developed to the same extent

As a way of conclusion - Current measures: As a way of conclusion - Current measures: reactive or proactive?reactive or proactive?

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• Scientific uncertainty (low level of confidence in climate change scenarios of extreme events at high spatial resolution)

• Policy action at regional/local level (need for stakeholder involvement; gaps in knowledge on potential adaptation policies and measures; lack of resources)

• Costs of adaptation and benefits assessments (gaps in knowledge; how to identify “win-win” or “no-regret” options, justified under many plausible scenarios)

• Coordination between sectors (how to enhance efficiency and effectiveness of measures with many organisations involved)

Challenges for integration of adaptation Challenges for integration of adaptation into other policies and measuresinto other policies and measures

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• Need to develop policy framework at European, national and regional/local levels

• Integrate (“mainstream”) adaptation into other policies and measures

• Enhance research (EU and national) on vulnerability assessments (including scenarios), good practices and costs and benefits, with stakeholder involvement

• Improve management practices for non-climatic reasons, as potential to reduce vulnerability

• Exchange experiences amongst relevant stakeholders (public and private; EU/national/regional/local)

• Communicate risks clearly to those affected and the actions they can take

OverallOverall

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Thank you for attentionThank you for attention

More information on EEA web page More information on EEA web page

http://http://eea.europa.eueea.europa.eu

The European Environment Agency is the EU body dedicated to The European Environment Agency is the EU body dedicated to providing sound, independent information on the environmentproviding sound, independent information on the environment