Resolving COResolving CO22 Flux Estimates Flux Estimates from Atmospheric Inversions from Atmospheric Inversions and Inventories in the Mid-and Inventories in the Mid-

Continent RegionContinent RegionStephen M. OgleStephen M. Ogle11, Andrew Schuh, Andrew Schuh11, ,

Dan CooleyDan Cooley11, Scott Denning, Scott Denning11, , Kenneth DavisKenneth Davis22, Tristram West, Tristram West33, ,

and F. Jay Breidtand F. Jay Breidt11

Other contributors: A. Andrews, K. Gurney, L. Heath, K. Paustian, P. Tans, A. Michalak, C. Potter, C. Tonitto, A. JacobsenData Support: Bob Cook (MAST-DC)

1Colorado State University, 2Pennsylvania State University, 3Oak Ridge National Laboratories

C

CO2 CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

C

Main Goal of MCI SynthesisMain Goal of MCI Synthesis Compare and reconcile COCompare and reconcile CO22 fluxes from inventories fluxes from inventories

and atmospheric inversions, to the extent possible, and atmospheric inversions, to the extent possible, and evaluate underlying mechanisms driving the and evaluate underlying mechanisms driving the fluxesfluxes

Atmospheric Inversions

Inventories

MCI Interim SynthesisMCI Interim Synthesis

Initial comparisons of inversions and Initial comparisons of inversions and inventory with pre-MCI Campaign data inventory with pre-MCI Campaign data from 2000-2005from 2000-2005 Benchmark for 2007-08 campaignBenchmark for 2007-08 campaign

Analyze the underlying sources of Analyze the underlying sources of difference between inversion and difference between inversion and inventoriesinventories

Expectations for 2007-08 ComparisonsExpectations for 2007-08 Comparisons

Regional Totals for CORegional Totals for CO22 FluxFlux

JENA InversionJENA Inversion JENA InversionJENA Inversion

Large scale global inversion (4 degree x 5 degree pixels)Large scale global inversion (4 degree x 5 degree pixels) Uses hourly and flask (weekly) dataUses hourly and flask (weekly) data Prior constraints via `statistical flux model' setting Prior constraints via `statistical flux model' setting

spatial/temporal correlations and weighting spatial/temporal correlations and weighting

Inversion results courtesy of : Christian Rödenbeck (MPI BCG)

CarbonTracker InversionCarbonTracker Inversion Carbon TrackerCarbon Tracker

Nested global inversion (22 global regions subset by 19 Olson Nested global inversion (22 global regions subset by 19 Olson ecosystem types)ecosystem types)

Uses hourly and flask (weekly) dataUses hourly and flask (weekly) data Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to ‘scale’ a prior estimate of CASA Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to ‘scale’ a prior estimate of CASA

NEE over these inversion regions on weekly timestepNEE over these inversion regions on weekly timestep

Inversion results courtesy of : Andy Jacobsen (NOAA)

Correlation? - Inventory vs. Correlation? - Inventory vs. InversionInversion

JENA Inversion CarbonTracker Inversion

Differences between Inversion and Differences between Inversion and InventoryInventory

JENA Inversion

CarbonTracker Inversion

Red implies a larger sink in the inventory data and blue implies a larger sink in the inversion.

Differences vs. Soil Carbon Differences vs. Soil Carbon ChangeChange

JENA Inversion

CarbonTracker Inversion

Difference vs. Harvest Difference vs. Harvest CarbonCarbon

JENA Inversion

CarbonTracker Inversion

Pre-Campaign Pre-Campaign ObservationsObservations

MCI Campaign MCI Campaign ObservationsObservations

Expectation for 2007-08 Expectation for 2007-08 SynthesisSynthesis

Expectation:Expectation: More observations will More observations will allow inversions to capture the apparent allow inversions to capture the apparent sink associated with the harvest C sink associated with the harvest C signal in MCIsignal in MCI Higher resolution REGIONAL inversions!Higher resolution REGIONAL inversions!

Alternative:Alternative: The inventory does not The inventory does not accurately represent the COaccurately represent the CO22 fluxes in fluxes in the region and the apparent sinkthe region and the apparent sink Further evaluate lateral transport out of Further evaluate lateral transport out of

regionregion Improve ability of inventories to capture Improve ability of inventories to capture

weather related impacts on COweather related impacts on CO22 fluxes fluxes

Ongoing ResearchOngoing Research

Reconcile inversions and Reconcile inversions and inventories, providing estimates inventories, providing estimates and uncertaintiesand uncertainties

Further testing with the inversions Further testing with the inversions using inventory data as priorsusing inventory data as priors

Re-evaluate underlying Re-evaluate underlying mechanisms driving COmechanisms driving CO22 flux in flux in regionregion