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Contemporary World: Contemporary World: International Relations International Relations

and and Organisations Organisations

Unit 1Unit 1Taiwan and the WorldTaiwan and the World

Lecturer: Dr. Andrea, Pei-Shan Kao Lecturer: Dr. Andrea, Pei-Shan Kao Centre for General Education, Centre for General Education,

National Chiao-Tung UniversityNational Chiao-Tung University

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Taiwan’s Political Situation and Strategic Position in the World

I. Introduction II. Current Political Situation III. Taiwan’s Strategic Position and Roles in the WorldIV. Dilemmas: Cross-Straits RelationsV. Conclusions

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I. General Introduction of TaiwanI. General Introduction of TaiwanA. Legal Name: R.O.C. (Republic of China); A. Legal Name: R.O.C. (Republic of China); with jurisdiction over with jurisdiction over

the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu. the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu.

B. Geography of The Main Island: TaiwanB. Geography of The Main Island: Taiwan-In East Asia, 120 km off the coast of China, southwest of Japan; it -In East Asia, 120 km off the coast of China, southwest of Japan; it

is bound to the east by the Pacific Ocean.is bound to the east by the Pacific Ocean.-Area: 35,801 km2 -Area: 35,801 km2 C. Population: C. Population: -23.1 million-23.1 million-Ethnic groups: Taiwanese people--Ethnic groups: Taiwanese people-

84% Taiwanese, including Hakka (14%) 84% Taiwanese, including Hakka (14%)    14% Mainlander   14% Mainlander 2% Aboriginal Taiwanese 2% Aboriginal Taiwanese

D. Languages:D. Languages: Taiwanese and Mandarin Taiwanese and Mandarin

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Economic Structure:Economic Structure:

A Capitalist, Export-Driven Economy.A Capitalist, Export-Driven Economy. The world’sThe world’s 4th-largest foreign-currency 4th-largest foreign-currency

reserves holder,reserves holder, $399.5 billion at the end of $399.5 billion at the end of April 2011, after April 2011, after China, Japan and RussiaChina, Japan and Russia..

In 2010, GDPIn 2010, GDP per capita (PPP) is per capita (PPP) is $35,700$35,700, , according to CIA World Factbook.according to CIA World Factbook.

Trade with the World in 2010 is $526 billion. Trade with the World in 2010 is $526 billion. Trade balance is $23 billion.Trade balance is $23 billion.

Unemployment Rate: 4.41Unemployment Rate: 4.41% % inin 2011. 2011.

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II. Current Political Situation:II. Current Political Situation:The Ma Ying-Jeou Administration-The Ma Ying-Jeou Administration-

Ma’s Cross-Straits Policy: Ma’s Cross-Straits Policy:

The Three No’s Policy-The Three No’s Policy-

““No Unification, No Independence, and No Unification, No Independence, and

No Use of Force”No Use of Force”

Ma’s Diplomatic Strategy: Ma’s Diplomatic Strategy: “Flexible “Flexible Diplomacy”Diplomacy” →Ma’s first foreign trip as →Ma’s first foreign trip as President focuses on improving relations President focuses on improving relations with with Taiwan’s Latin American allies.Taiwan’s Latin American allies.

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III. Taiwan’s Strategic Position and Roles in the WorldIII. Taiwan’s Strategic Position and Roles in the World

A. Economic Roles in the World MarketA. Economic Roles in the World Market

1. Taiwan plays an important role in global labor-division systems.

2. As Taiwan has become the hub of a global production network in many high tech industries, it has the ability has the ability to impact the global supply chain of the information-to impact the global supply chain of the information-technology (IT) industry.technology (IT) industry.

3. Capital Power- Taiwan is one of the world’s largest he world’s largest foreign-currency reserves holder.foreign-currency reserves holder.

4. 4. As one of the Asian “Four-Tigers,” Taiwan can provide valuable development lessons for third world countries.

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B. Active Participant in International SocietyB. Active Participant in International Society-Taiwan’s donation to the in medical and/or humanitarian relief to over 78 -Taiwan’s donation to the in medical and/or humanitarian relief to over 78 countries. countries.

- Taiwan provided over $20 million to the Afghanistan humanitarian relief effort - Taiwan provided over $20 million to the Afghanistan humanitarian relief effort including medical goods, freight trucks, wool blankets, and other supplies.including medical goods, freight trucks, wool blankets, and other supplies.

-Taiwan has contributed thousands of wheelchairs to hospitals and charity -Taiwan has contributed thousands of wheelchairs to hospitals and charity organizations in Africa and Latin America; and also made donation to the Global organizations in Africa and Latin America; and also made donation to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria.Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria.

-In 2007, Taiwan rescue teams, aid and volunteers of the Tzu Chin Foundation went to Peru to join the rescue effort after a 7.9 serious earthquake happened.

-In 2008, in the earthquake happened in Sichuan, Taiwan not only donated over $133 million US dollars to China but also sent a sum of 100 tons of relief supplies donated by the Tzu Chi Foundation and the Red Cross Society of Taiwan to the affected areas. Moreover, Taiwanese rescue teams also went to Sichuan to cope with the quake.

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C. Military Strategic Position in East Asia:C. Military Strategic Position in East Asia:

-Used as a foreign military base → for the USA-Used as a foreign military base → for the USA-Station of foreign troops on Taiwan ↗-Station of foreign troops on Taiwan ↗-Strategic importance in the regional power -Strategic importance in the regional power

struggle: Japan←→China struggle: Japan←→China

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IV. DilemmasA. Taiwan-China Relations: Historical Background (from

1949-until Present)The Chinese Civil War

When: 1927-1950Where: Happened in mainland ChinaWho: The KMT and the CPC (Chinese Communist Party)What: An ideological split between the US-supported KMT, and

the Soviet-supported Communist CPC. How: The war ended with Communist victory. In 1949, Mao

Zedong (the communist leader) proclaimed the PRC (People’s Republic of China) with its capital at Beijing. Chiang Kai-shek (the KMT leader) and his 2 million soldiers retreated from the Mainland to the island of Taiwan. That is, the CPC controlled the whole of China and Hainan Island; the KMT reduced to their remaining territories of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Penghu, Kinmen and MatsuMatsu .

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B. Current Cross-Strait RelationsPresident Ma Ying-Jeou launched direct weekend charter flights between Taiwan and China for the first time, opened Taiwan to Chinese tourists, eased restrictions on Taiwan investment on China and approved measures that allow Chinese investors to buy Taiwan stocks. C Public Opinions and the Poll-60 percent of Taiwanese people favor maintaining the status quo in relations with China.

↓“no unification, no independence and no use of force”

↓Taiwan’s mainstream public opinion

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Source: http://www.allvoices.com/people/Ma_Ying-jeou, “consulted in March 2009”.

On cross-Strait relations, President Ma Ying-Jeou said: Economically China is an opportunity although it could be a threat politically.

What Taiwan should do is to “maximise the

opportunity but minimise the threat.”

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D. Interdependent Economic and Trade Relations

-In 1991, Taiwan invested $174 million in China, occupying 9.52% of Taiwan’s DFI to the world, which was $1.8 billion. It then rose to $4.59 billion in 2003 and occupied over half of Taiwan’s DFI to the world.

-In fact, it is difficult to figure the real and correct amount of Taiwan investment in China as many investments go unreported to the government. Although Taiwan’s official record shows a total investment of $34.3 billion from 1991 to 2003, unofficial estimates range from $100 billion to $150 billion.

-According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic, in 2006, Taiwan’s investment in China increased to $7.64 billion dollars.

-The number then reached to $9.97 billion dollars in 2007, making for a cumulative total of $72.28 billion since 1991 to September 2008.

Taiwan now is the largest foreign investor in China

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Trade Statistics:•In 2000, the two-way trade totalled $31.25 billion.•China has become the largest source of Taiwan’s trade surplus.•The trade amount has grown sharply from $77.8 million in 1979 to $46.3 billion in 2003.

•The bilateral trade in 2007 has totalled over $100 billion, making for a cumulative total of $670.3 billion since 1988.

•The cross-strait trade accounted for 0.25% of Taiwan’s total trade amount in 1979 and increased sharply to 20.04% in 2005; and 22.88% in 2009. (Mainland Affairs Office)

•China’s trade dependence on Taiwan was 0.27% in 1979; it then grew to 6.42% in 2005. (www.chinataiwan.org) In 2009, the share of bilateral trade in China’s total foreign trade was 3.92%. (Mainland Affairs Office)

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E. Social and Cultural Exchanges *According to Chinese statistics, 437,700 Taiwanese visited China in 1988. However, this level grew over ten times to 4.6 million people (4,627,881) in 2007. Similarly, the number of Chinese residents travelling to Taiwan also increased sharply.

*In 1989, there were only 1,261 Chinese residents visiting Taiwan; the numbers grew greatly to 279,751 in 2007. It increased over 221 times.

→Not only did Taiwanese tourist travel to China grow substantially since 1988, but that the number of Chinese residents travelling to Taiwan also steadily increased since 1989.

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*There are now 1.5 million Taiwanese working and residing in China.

*According to the SEF, in 2008 there have been 20,729 Chinese professionals who applied for coming Taiwan to visit.

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F. Intensive Political Contacts In 1991, Establishment of the SEF, and the ARATS

→In 1993, “Koo-Wang Talks” in Singapore

→In 1995, Suspension of Cross-strait negotiations as President Lee Teng-hui visited the United States.

→Contacts between the SEF and ARATS resumed in 1998, the 2nd “Koo-Wang Meeting” was held in Shanghai

→ Communication between the SEF and ARATS broke off again in 1999 as Lee Teng-hui’s statement to a German media.

→ Since 2000, under Chen Shui-bian’s rule; the bilateral bargaining was nearly suspended.

According to the SEF, there were a total of 29 bargaining and talks that have been held by the two sides from 1991 to 2008.

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Other Political Contacts and Exchange:*The “Cross-Strait Economic, Trade and Cultural Forum” held by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Communist Party of China (CPC).e.g.: Wu Poh-hsiung, the Chairman of Kuomintang, visited China in May 2008 and met with Chinese Communist Party Secretary General Hu Jintao.

↓The first political contact between the two parties in 60 years.

*In March 2008, the vice-president elect, Vicent Siew met with Hu Jintao at the Boao Forum in April in Hainan.

↓The highest-level political contact across the Taiwan Strait in nearly

60 years.

*Lien Chan, KMT honorary Chiarman also have met with Hu Jintao at the APEC in November 2008 in Peru.

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Cross-Strait Bargaining:

*The first Chiang-Chen Talk: 11-14 June 2008, Beijing.The Strait Exchange Foundation (SEF) sent a delegation to China to hold talks with China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS). →Outcome: The two sides signed the “Cross-Strait Agreement on Travel by Mainland Residents to Taiwan” and the “Minutes of Talks on Cross-Strait Charter Flights”. ( 週末包機與陸客來台觀光 )

*The second Chiang-Chen Talk: November 3-7 2008, Taipei.→Outcome: Signed 4 agreements on food safety, air transport, sea transport, and postal service. ( 海運直航、空運直航、通郵及食品安全 )

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*The third Chiang-Chen Talk: took place in April 2009, Nanjing. →The topics included “joint efforts to combat crimes, scheduled cross-strait flights, and signing of a memorandum of understanding.” ( 兩岸司法互助、定期航班、金融監理備忘錄 )

*The 4th Meeting held in Taichung in December 2009.

Three agreements on agricultural product inspection and quarantine; cross-strait cooperation on industrial product standards, inspection and certification; as well as on fishing crew collaboration.雙方簽署「海峽兩岸農產品檢疫檢驗合作」、「海峽兩岸標準計量檢驗認證合作」、「海峽兩岸漁船船員勞務合作」等三項協議

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*The fifth talks:The Straits Exchange Foundation and the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits officially signed the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement and the Cross-Strait Agreement on Intellectual Property Rights Protection and Cooperation, and reached a consensus on plans for follow-up negotiations (June 2010)

*The two sides signed "Cross-Strait Agreement on Medical and Health Cooperation" at the sixth talks.

(December 2010)

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G. Political Confrontations in the International Arena-Taiwan’s WHO bid (Taiwan has unsuccessfully applied for membership since 1997);-Taiwan’s UN bid (1993-until present); -The diplomatic competition between Taiwan and China.

↓ The Island's Sovereign Status

↓ Taiwan’s being a “Sovereign State” vs.

China’s “One China Policy”

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H. DPP’s Protests Against Ma’s Cross-Strait Policy

1. Ma’s cross-Strait policy is “over-inclined” to China.

2. Imbalanced and Asymmetric Trade: Taiwan is “over-dependent” on

China.

3. Negative growth rate on Chinese

visitors to Taiwan: The growth rate is -9.89% in 2008

compared with the previous year. (Ma’s promises have not been realised)

*Note: following the increase of Chinese visitors to Taiwan in 2009, this issue is no longer the hot spot.

4. Taiwan’s space in international society.

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On Taiwan’s international space: “diplomatic truce” with China is a means for Taiwan to seek “co-existence” and “co-prosperity” with China.

On the issues of ECFA: Taiwan is entitled to ink any trade pacts with other countries.

The growth rate of Chinese visitors to Taiwan is appearing.

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V. Conclusion

A.Future Perspective-Ma seeks a “diplomatic truce” with China↓Short-time peace and stability across the Taiwan

Strait is likely

B. Possible Scenarios

(+)Maintaining the “status quo”.

(+)When Beijing recognises and accept the reality, stability and peace settle in the region can be endured.

(+) If China becomes a democratic country?

(-)When China surpasses US as superpower?

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Class Discussion:Taiwan's government late last year decided to allow Chinese students to study in Taiwan, but it will limit the number of mainland Chinese students to under 2,000 a year in the initial stage of the program. Several university presidents said that Taiwan should open its doors to Chinese students as soon as possible, insisting that there will be more pros than cons. (The China Post, April 21, 2010)

Q: Do you agree that Taiwan should open its doors completely to Chinese students?