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1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Po ietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor Michael E. Porter Harvard Business School Vietnam Competitiveness Report Launch Hanoi, Vietnam November 30, 2010

1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

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Page 1: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report

Professor Michael E. PorterHarvard Business School

Vietnam Competitiveness Report LaunchHanoi, Vietnam

November 30, 2010

Page 2: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

2 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

The Vietnam Competitiveness Report

Objectives

• Provide policy makers and external observers with a data-rich assessment of Vietnam’s competitiveness, using a comprehensive internationally-accepted methodology

• Develop an integrated set of policy recommendations, supported by a transparent logic and data

• Engage decision makers from different constituencies in a dialogue on the future of Vietnam’s competitiveness

Partners

Page 3: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

3 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report

• Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model

• Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness

• A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam

Page 4: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

4 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Position in 2010

• Significant growth over the last two decades

• Widespread reduction in poverty

• Resilience in the face of the global economic crisis

Page 5: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

5 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Long-Term Prosperity Growth1975 - 2009

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)

GDP per Capita,

PPP adjusted in 1990 US$

CAGR: +6.15%

CAGR: +6.15%

CAGR: +5.00%

CAGR: +5.00%

CAGR: +2.47%

CAGR: +2.47%

Page 6: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

6 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Position in 2010

• Significant growth over the last two decades

• Widespread reduction in poverty

• Resilience in the face of the global economic crisis

BUT

• Still low level of prosperity and productivity

• Growing concerns about the economic sustainability of Vietnam’s current development model

Page 7: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

7 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Prosperity PerformanceSelected Countries, 1999 to 2009

Source: EIU (2010), authors calculations

PPP-adjusted GDP per Capita, 2009 ($USD)

Growth of Real GDP per Capita (PPP-adjusted), CAGR, 2000 to 2009

Page 8: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

8 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Labor Productivity

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)

PPP-adjusted GDP per Employee, 1990-$USD

Page 9: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

9 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Current Development Model

• Structural change, fuelled by Vietnam’s integration into the global economy, has been the key driver of Vietnam’s growth

• Foreign investors have combined capital with Vietnamese labor and imported inputs to serve global markets, increasingly also domestic demand

Page 10: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

10 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Structural Change and Vietnamese GrowthDecomposing Vietnamese Labor Productivity Growth, 2000 - 2008

Source: General Statistics Office, Vietnam; ACI calculations

Page 11: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

11 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Drivers of Structural Change: Economic Openness

Source: EIU (2010)

Openness to Trade Openness to Investment

Page 12: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

12 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

The Growth of the FDI Sector

Source: Data from General Statistics Office, Vietnam.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Growth (2000 = 100)Profits (return on

fixed capital)

# Firms

Workers

Fixed Capital

Profits

Page 13: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

13 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

• Structural change, fuelled by Vietnam’s integration into the global economy, has been the key driver of Vietnam’s growth

• Foreign investors have combined capital with Vietnamese labor and imported inputs to serve global markets, increasingly also domestic demand

• Value added and productivity in Vietnam remains low , especially in manufacturing

• FDI and exports create jobs, but have not raised prosperity levels beyond the low wages in manufacturing

• There is little evidence of positive spill-overs from FDI to the rest of the Vietnamese economy in terms of improving productivity and technology

• Vietnam’s attractiveness to investors is almost solely the result of the low prevailing wages

• In a changing global market environment, this is unlikely to be sufficient for sustained growth

Vietnam’s Current Development Model

Page 14: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

14 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Relative Wages: Selected Countries

Source: Philippines Department of Labor and Employment (2010)

$47.36$48.72$82.29$117.15$156.19$166.95

$336.04

$540.45

$829.71

$1,146.47

$1,809.91

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Avg. monthly wage (US$)

Page 15: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

15 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Exports By Type of Industry

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Processed Goods

Semi-processed Goods

Unprocessed Goods

Services

TOTAL

Source: UNComTrade, WTO (2010)

World Export Market Share (current USD)

Page 16: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

16 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Cluster Export Portfolio 1997 - 2009

Exports of US $2 Billion = Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, International Cluster Competitiveness Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School; Richard Bryden, Project Director. Underlying data drawn from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database and the IMF BOP statistics.

Change in Vietnam’s world export market share, 1997 – 2009

Vie

tnam

’s w

orl

d e

xpo

rt m

arke

t sh

are,

200

9

Vietnam’s average world export share: 0.416%

Change In Vietnam’s average world export share: 0.275%

Page 17: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

17 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

FurnitureBuilding Fixtures,

Equipment & Services

Fishing & Fishing Products Hospitality

& TourismAgricultural

Products Transportation

& Logistics

Share of World Exports by ClusterVietnam, 2008

Plastics

Oil & Gas

Chemical Products

Biopharma-ceuticals

Power Generation

Aerospace Vehicles & Defense

Lightning & Electrical

Equipment

Financial Services

Publishing & Printing

Information Tech.

Communi-cations

Equipment

Business Services

DistributionServices

Forest Products

Heavy Construction

Services

Construction Materials

Prefabricated Enclosures

Apparel

Leather & Related Products

Jewelry & Precious Metals

Textiles

Footwear

Processed Food

Tobacco

Medical Devices

Analytical InstrumentsEducation &

Knowledge Creation

Note: Clusters with overlapping borders have at least 20% overlap (by number of industries) in both directions.

Marine Equipment

Aerospace Engines

Heavy Machinery

Sporting & Recreation

Goods

Automotive

Production Technology

Motor Driven Products

Mining & Metal Manufacturing

0.5% - 1.5%

1.5% - 5%

5% - 10%

Enter-tainment

World Market Share

Page 18: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

18 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

• Disruptions that could limit demand– Rising protectionism– Overheating in China; sluggish

growth elsewhere– Climate change

• Competition that could reduce Vietnams attractiveness– From other low-wage locations– From within the increasingly

open ASEAN region

• New opportunities as a means to serve new demand

– Emergence of Asia– Increasing market of

consumers with similar needs as in Vietnam

• New opportunities as a supply base

– Cost pressure on global companies

– China + 1 strategy of MNCs

The External Environment in 2010

Opportunities Threats

Page 19: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

19 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Current Development ModelEmerging Weaknesses

• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand drive growing trade deficit

Page 20: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

20 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Balance of Trade1995 – 2008

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Prel. 2008

Source: Data from General Statistics Office, Vietnam.

US$M

Page 21: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

21 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Current Development ModelEmerging Weaknesses

• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand drive growing trade deficit

• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

Page 22: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

22 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Currency Valuation

Source: 2000-2008 data – WDI; 2009 data – EIU

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Index (2000 = 100)

CPI VN/CPI USA

Exchange Rate Index

VN

Page 23: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

23 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Current Development ModelEmerging Weaknesses

• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand drive growing trade deficit

• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

• Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation

• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than control it

Page 24: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

24 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Rate of InflationSelected Countries, 2000 - 2009

Source: EIU 2010

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Vietnam

Indonesia

Malaysia

China

Thailand

% change in CPI

Page 25: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

25 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Current Development ModelEmerging Weaknesses

• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand drive growing trade deficit

• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

• Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation

• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than control it

• Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capital inflows to maintain the growth rate

• Demand growth is outstripping the existing microeconomic capacity in terms of skills and infrastructure

Page 26: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

26 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Ease of Worker Recruitment

Source: Junichi Mori , Nguyen Thi Xuan Thuy, and Pham Truong Hoang (2009) – data drawn from Japanese-Affiliated Manufacturers in Asia, JETRO. Note: Surveys in 2003-2004 did not include questions about recruitment of general workers

Percentage of Firms that report Difficulty in Recruiting

Page 27: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

27 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Current Development ModelEmerging Weaknesses

• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand drive growing trade deficit

• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

• Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation

• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than control it

• Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capital inflows to maintain the growth rate

• Demand growth is outstripping the existing microeconomic capacity in terms of skills and infrastructure

• The gap between announced and implemented FDI is rising

Page 28: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

28 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Source: General Statistics Office,Vietnam

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Registered

Actively Invested

US $M

Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam1988 - 2008

Page 29: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

29 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report

• Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model

• Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness

• A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam

Page 30: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

30 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Macroeconomic Competitiveness

Microeconomic Competitiveness

Sophisticationof Company

Operations andStrategy

Quality of the NationalBusiness

Environment

MacroeconomicPolicies

SocialInfrastructure and PoliticalInstitutions

State of Cluster Development

• Macroeconomic competitiveness creates the potential for high productivity, but is not sufficient

• Productivity ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic capability of the economy and the sophistication of local competition

Determinants of Competitiveness

Endowments

Page 31: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

31 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Macroeconomic Competitiveness

• Human development– Basic education– Health system

• Political institutions– Political freedom– Voice and accountability– Political stability– Government effectiveness– Centralization of economic policymaking

• Rule of law– Security – Judicial independence– Efficiency of legal framework– Business costs of corruption– Civil rights

• Fiscal policy– Government surplus/deficit– Government debt

• Monetary policy– Inflation

Social Infrastructure and Political Institutions

Macroeconomic Policies

Page 32: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

32 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Macroeconomic Competitiveness

Microeconomic CompetitivenessSophisticationof Company

Operations andStrategy

Quality of the NationalBusiness

Environment

SocialInfrastructure and PoliticalInstitutions

State of Cluster Development

Endowments

MacroeconomicPolicies

Determinants of Competitiveness

• The internal skills, capabilities, and management practices needed for companies to attain the highest level of productivity and innovation possible

Sophisticationof Company

Operations andStrategy

Page 33: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

33 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Determinants of Competitiveness

• The external business environment conditions that allow companies to reach high levels of productivity and innovation

Quality of the National Business

Environment Macroeconomic Competitiveness

Microeconomic CompetitivenessSophisticationof Company

Operations andStrategy

Quality of the NationalBusiness

Environment

SocialInfrastructure and PoliticalInstitutions

State of Cluster Development

Endowments

MacroeconomicPolicies

Page 34: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

34 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Quality of the National Business Environment

Context for Firm

Strategy and Rivalry

Context for Firm

Strategy and Rivalry

Related and Supporting Industries

Related and Supporting Industries

Factor(Input)

Conditions

Factor(Input)

Conditions

Demand Conditions

Demand Conditions

• Sophisticated and demanding local customers and needs

• Many things matter for competitiveness• Successful economic development is a process of successive upgrading, in which the

business environment improves to enable increasingly sophisticated ways of competing

• Local rules and incentives that encourage investment and productivity

Open and vigorous local competition

• Access to high quality business inputs

• Availability of suppliers and supporting industries

Page 35: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

35 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Determinants of Competitiveness

• A geographic concentration of firms, specialized assets, and institutions in particular fields.

State of Cluster Development

Macroeconomic Competitiveness

Microeconomic CompetitivenessSophisticationof Company

Operations andStrategy

Quality of the NationalBusiness

Environment

SocialInfrastructure and PoliticalInstitutions

State of Cluster Development

Endowments

MacroeconomicPolicies

Page 36: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

36 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

The Thai Automotive Cluster: The Activity Dimension

Motor-cycles

Motor-cycles

Pickup Trucks

Pickup Trucks

Components and Module Makers(1st tier)

Engines, Drivetrains, Steering, Suspension, Brake, Wheel, Tire, Bodyworks, Interiors, Electronics and Electrical Systems

Components and Module Makers(1st tier)

Engines, Drivetrains, Steering, Suspension, Brake, Wheel, Tire, Bodyworks, Interiors, Electronics and Electrical Systems

Parts (2nd & 3rd tiers)Stamping, Plastics, Rubber, Machining, Casting, Forging,

Function, Electrical, Trimming

Parts (2nd & 3rd tiers)Stamping, Plastics, Rubber, Machining, Casting, Forging,

Function, Electrical, Trimming

SteelSteel

PlasticsPlastics

ElectronicsElectronics

Rubber&TiresRubber&Tires

TestingTesting

FinanceFinance

GovernmentGovernmentEducation and

Technical Institutions

Education and Technical Institutions

AssociationsAssociations

Specialized Consultants

Specialized Consultants

DistributionDistribution

Leather &Fabric

Leather &Fabric

GlassGlass

ToolsTools

Mold&DieMold&Die

Jig&FixtureJig&Fixture

MachineryMachinery

Assemblers

Passenger Cars

Passenger Cars

ServicesServices

Globally Competitive

Regionally Competitive

Nationally Significant

Nationally Insignificant

Source: Sasin-team analysis, 2003 study

Page 37: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

37 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Clusters and Competitiveness

• Clusters increase productivity and operational efficiency

• Clusters stimulate and enable innovations

• Clusters facilitate commercialization and new business formation

• Clusters reflect the fundamental influence of linkages and spill-overs across firms and associated institutions in competition

Page 38: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

38 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Stages of National Competitive DevelopmentShifting Policy Imperatives

Factor-Driven Economy

Factor-Driven Economy

Investment-Driven Economy

Investment-Driven Economy

Innovation- Driven Economy

Innovation- Driven Economy

Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Macmillan Press, 1990

Low Cost Inputs Productivity Unique Value

• Macro, political, and legal stability

• Improving human capital• Efficient basic

infrastructure• Lowering regulatory costs

of doing business

• Increasing local rivalry• Market opening• Advanced infrastructure• Incentives and rules

encouraging productivity• Cluster formation and

activation

• Advanced skills• Scientific and technological

institutions• Incentives and rules

encouraging innovation• Cluster upgrading

Page 39: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

39 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Competitiveness ProfilePosition Relative to Current Prosperity

Macroeconomic Competitiveness

Political Institutions

Rule of Law

Human Development

MicroeconomicCompetitiveness

Macroeconomic Policy

National Business Environment

Company Operations and

Strategy

Country Competitiveness

Significant advantage

Moderateadvantage

Neutral

Moderate disadvantage

Significant disadvantage

Page 40: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

40 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Corruption Perception Index, 2009

Note: Ranks only countries available in both years (91 countries total)Source: Global Corruption Report, 2009

Change in Rank, Global Corruption Report, 2009 versus 2001

Rank in Global Corruption Index,

2009

Deteriorating Improving

High corruption

Low corruption

Page 41: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

41 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Context for Firm

Strategy and Rivalry

Context for Firm

Strategy and Rivalry

Related and Supporting Industries

Related and Supporting Industries

Factor(Input)

Conditions

Factor(Input)

Conditions

Demand ConditionsDemand

Conditions

Vietnam’s National Business Environment

Sizeable and growing market

Low, yet improving, sophistication of local customers

Weak regulatory quality standards and enforcement

Basic physical infrastructure in place; low effectiveness of the significant ongoing further investments

Solid communication infrastructure as a result of liberalization and competition

Growing but still shallow financial system; highly volatile and speculative, with limited access to credit for new private companies

Education system is growing but provides largely insufficient quality; serious shortage of skilled labor

Modest performance on administrative infrastructure, but major reforms (e.g. Project 30) under way

Poor innovation infrastructure

Natural emergence of clusters, but focus on narrow activities with weak presence of local suppliers and service providers

Shallow roots of FDI in the local economy

Sector-oriented policies ineffective and not systematically focused on clusters

High level of openness to foreign investors

WTO/ASEAN liberalization commitments but remaining important barriers

Weak competition policy and enforcement

Unequal competition among companies, with SOEs receiving special treatment

Competition focused on price, not quality

Unclear separation of government role as a regulator from that as an owner

Equitization of SOEs not oriented towards improving performance

Page 42: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

42 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Regulatory Quality: Selected Countries

Source: World Bank Institute, Global governance indicators, 2009. Values for 1997, 1999 and 2001 have been interpolated.

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Malaysia

Thailand

China

Vietnam

Composite Measure of Regulatory Quality

Page 43: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

43 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Sophistication of Vietnamese Companies

• High levels of flexibility and responsiveness to market opportunities

• Short-term, opportunistic company strategies

• Compete primarily on cost, not quality

• Low level of operational sophistication

• Large SOEs operating as corporate groups with little synergy

• Huge gap in operational effectiveness and productivity between Vietnamese SOEs, Vietnamese private companies, and foreign MNCs

Page 44: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

44 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Competitiveness in 2010: Summary

• Vietnam’s key current competitive advantages are based on inherited endowments, especially its geographic location and demographic profile

• Government has enabled these advantages to reveal itself through market opening and investments in basic infrastructure

• It has not created new, distinctive advantages

• Government efforts to meet the infrastructure and regulatory needs of a growing economy are hampered by a traditional governance system, focused on control

• While the development model has been successful in the past, the signs of its fragility are increasing

• Vietnam needs a strategy to develop a new development model, build on distinctive competitive advantages that can sustain growth in a changing global market environment

Page 45: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

45 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report

• Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model

• Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness

• A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam

Page 46: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

46 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Towards a New Strategy: Three Guiding Principles

A new orientation towards competitiveness• From a focus on macroeconomic drivers of structural change to

upgrading macro- and microeconomic foundations of productivity

A structural transformation in the role of the private sector• From a focus on SOEs and foreign MNCs to a market-driven

combination of private firms, MNCs, and transformed SOE’s

A new role for government• From a government controlling a transition economy to a government

creating competitive advantages in a market economy

Page 47: 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor

47 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Competitiveness AgendaStrategic Action Priorities

Manage the growing

macroeconomic imbalances

Address emerging

bottlenecks in key input factors

Create the foundations for

higher productivity

Address emerging challenges

Prepare the next stage of development

Secure current growth Enable future growth

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48 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Manage Macroeconomic ImbalancesKey Action Proposals

• Transparency of fiscal position of the government and SOEs– Create central entity with mandate to report on fiscal position of all

government entities and of SOEs and on the current state of the economy

• Budget discipline– Establish regular monitoring/auditing of public spending

– Strengthen quality and effectiveness of public debt management

• Consistent and predictable monetary policy– Clarify roles of the National Assembly, the government, and the Central

Bank

– Set clear monetary policy goals

• Financial market regulation– Enhance regulatory oversight of the financial system through the Central

Bank

• Coordination of overall macroeconomic policy over time– Strengthen mandate and operations of the Central Committee for

Financial and Monetary Policies

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49 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Address Microeconomic BottlenecksKey Action Proposals

• Microeconomic bottlenecks are emerging in physical infrastructure (transport, energy), workforce skills, and administrative capacity

• The government has identified all of these areas as action priorities

• However, current policies lack effectiveness, despite sometimes significant financial commitments

Outlines of a new approach

• Identify and alleviate problems in specific regional clusters

• Focus individual cluster efforts on most pressing bottleneck

• Create cluster-based task-force with mandate and power to take action

• Learn from individual problems about general issues and possible nation-wide solutions

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50 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Possible Cluster Initiatives

Electronics & engineering cluster in Hanoi and neighboring regions: Local supplier capacity

Tourism cluster in the Central Region: Concept and related services

Garment cluster in Ho Chi Minh Region: Workforce skills

Logistics cluster in Ho Chi Minh City region: Infrastructure

Agro-processing cluster in the Mekong Delta region: Value-added Activities

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51 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Create Foundations for Higher ProductivityKey Action Proposals: Policies

• Education and workforce skills– Develop a national workforce strategy with rigorous studies on the type

of skills and competencies required for future growth

– Reform the regulatory framework for the education sector

– Promote vocational training

– Set up a National Productivity Fund to support cluster-based initiatives in skill upgrading efforts

• Physical infrastructure– Create a centralized planning mechanism to coordinate, oversee and

evaluate infrastructure development

– Strengthen the system for managing public procurement

– Provide viable market-based financing options for infrastructure investment

– Address electricity shortages through a utility action package of investment, market regulation and technological measures

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52 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Create Foundations for Higher ProductivityKey Action Proposals: Policies (continued)

• Governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)– Separate the role of the government as an owner from that as a regulator

– Define and enforce modern governance standards for SOEs

– Ensure competition and market discipline in the markets in which SOEs operate

– Improve the equitization process and define policy for effective management of divestment proceedings

• Attraction of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)– Develop a new FDI attraction strategy for Vietnam

– Strengthen the capacity of the Foreign Investment Agency (FIA)

– Set up outreach initiatives with foreign MNCs to build the local supplier base and clusters around foreign investments

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53 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Create Foundations for Higher ProductivityKey Action Proposals: Policies (continued)

• Cluster development– Re-organize existing policies around clusters, especially in areas linked

to investment attraction, workforce skill development, industrial parks, and SME/private sector-development.

– Conduct a national cluster mapping project to identify and assess clusters across the country

– Encourage the launch of pilot cluster initiatives through the creation of a Vietnamese Cluster Initiative Fund

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54Copyright 2010 © Professor Michael E. Porter

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

The Role of Government in Cluster Initiatives

• Initiate/ Convene

• Co-Finance

• Support all existing and emerging clusters

• Participate• Enable data

collection and dissemination at the cluster level

• Be ready to implement recommendations

• Pick favored clusters

• Pick favored companies

• Subsidize or distort competition

• Define cluster actionpriorities

Governmentshould

Governmentmay

Government should not

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55 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Industrial Policy versus Cluster-Based Policy

Industrial PolicyIndustrial Policy

• Target areas of perceived market demand or attractive technology

• Intervene in competition (subsidies, protection, etc.)

• Favor domestic companies

• Require sustained financial commitment by the public sector

• Centralize decisions at the national level

• Has a high failure rate; short term impact but low sustainability

• Target areas of perceived market demand or attractive technology

• Intervene in competition (subsidies, protection, etc.)

• Favor domestic companies

• Require sustained financial commitment by the public sector

• Centralize decisions at the national level

• Has a high failure rate; short term impact but low sustainability

Cluster-Based PolicyCluster-Based Policy

• Leverage existing assets, history, and geographic location

• All clusters are good

• Enable competition to be more productive and sophisticated

• Neutral on ownership

• Require sustained participation by all actors

• Encourage initiative at all geographic levels

• Has rising impact over time; some quick successes are possible

• Leverage existing assets, history, and geographic location

• All clusters are good

• Enable competition to be more productive and sophisticated

• Neutral on ownership

• Require sustained participation by all actors

• Encourage initiative at all geographic levels

• Has rising impact over time; some quick successes are possible

Distort and impede competition Enhance and upgrade competition

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56Copyright 2010 © Professor Michael E. Porter

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Organize Public Policy around Clusters

ClustersClusters

Specialized Physical Infrastructure

Natural Resource Protection

Environmental Stewardship

Science and TechnologyInfrastructure (e.g., centers, university departments, technology transfer)

Education and Workforce TrainingBusiness Attraction

Export Promotion

• Clusters provide a framework for organizing the implementation of many public policies and public investments directed at economic development

Setting standardsMarket Information and Disclosure

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57 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Clusters, Growth, and Diversification

Grow activitiesin related clusters

Grow activities in new industrieswithin existing clusters

Upgrade the quality of activities in existing clusters

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58 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Create Foundations for Higher ProductivityKey Action Proposals: Architecture

• Policy Process– Creation of a central Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) unit to review

existing and a new laws and regulations

– Establishment of an institutionalized review process for draft laws and regulations hat invites stakeholders to comment

– Development of a medium-term budget planning process with rolling updates

• Public Sector Capacity – Establishment of the Prime Minister’s Policy Unit

– Launch anti-corruption campaign

– Review of the current training system for public officials, starting with pilot agencies

– Develop comprehensive civil service reform program with modernization of organizational structures and HR practices, including hiring, pay, promotion, etc.

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59 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

The Process of Economic DevelopmentShifting Roles and Responsibilities

Old ModelOld Model

• Government drives economic development through policy decisions and incentives

• Government drives economic development through policy decisions and incentives

New ModelNew Model

• Economic development is a collaborative process involving government at multiple levels, companies, teaching and research institutions, and private sector organizations

• Economic development is a collaborative process involving government at multiple levels, companies, teaching and research institutions, and private sector organizations

• Competitiveness is the result of both top-down and bottom-up processes in which many individuals, companies, and institutions take relevant decisions

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60 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Create Foundations for Higher ProductivityKey Action Proposals: Architecture (continued)

• Regional government– Launch funding competition for development of regional economic

development strategies

– Develop a knowledge and skill infrastructure for regional development

– Review the current structure of authority delegation between the central and regional governments

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61 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Policy Levels Influencing Competitiveness

Broad Economic Areas

Groups of Neighboring Nations

States, Provinces

Metropolitan and Rural Areas

Nations

World Economy

South-East Asia

Greater Mekong Region

Vietnam

Vietnamese provinces

Hanoi region

WTO

• The business environment at a given location is the cumulative outcome of policy at all levels of geography

• Microeconomic competitiveness raises the importance of lower levels of geography

• The allocation of responsibilities across levels of geography is a crucial policy challenge

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62 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Regions and Competitiveness

• Economic performance varies significantly across sub-national regions (e.g., provinces, states, metropolitan areas)

• Many essential levers of competitiveness reside at the regional level

• Region’s specialize in different sets of clusters

• Cluster strength directly impacts regional performance

• Each region requires its own distinctive competitiveness agenda

• Improving competitiveness requires effective policy collaboration between regions and the national government

• Decentralization is important to foster regional specialization, internal competition, and greater government accountability

• Effective decentralization requires clarity on roles and responsibilities, and sufficient administrative capacity at local and regional level

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63 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Action

Implementation ModelCreating a National Competitiveness Council

National Competitiveness Council

Coordinate ReportMonitor

Agencies

Task Forces

Action

Action

Government

Public

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64 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Implementation Model

Regional Cluster Efforts

National Policy Reforms

National Institutional

Reforms

• Upgrade quality of policy design through institutional reforms

• Translate cluster experience into better national policies

• Develop local solutions in regional clusters

• Bottom-up approach with gradually increasing scope is more likely to mobilize all relevant constituencies than traditional top-down, big-bang approach

• Macroeconomic policies controlled at the national level; can and should be addressed directly

• For microeconomic upgrading, a bottom-up approach with gradually increasing scope is more likely to engage all relevant constituencies than traditional top-down efforts

• For macroeconomic upgrading, the national control over policies allows for a more traditional approach

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65 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

National Value PropositionNational Value Proposition

Creating a National Economic Strategy for Vietnam

Developing Unique StrengthsDeveloping Unique Strengths Achieving and Maintaining Parity with Peers

Achieving and Maintaining Parity with Peers

• What elements of the business environment can be unique strengths relative to peers/neighbors?

• What existing and emerging clusters represent local strengths?

• What weaknesses must be addressed to remove key constraints and achieve parity with peer countries?

• What is the distinctive competitive position of Vietnam given its location, legacy, existing strengths, and potential strengths?

– What unique value as a business location?– For what types of activities and clusters?– And what roles with neighbors, the region, and the broader

world?

• Priorities and sequencing are necessity in economic development

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66 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Role of a National Value Proposition

• The value proposition should be an inspiration to the Vietnamese population

• The value proposition is a signal to companies from abroad and at home about what assets and conditions can expect to find in Vietnam

• The value proposition is a signal to policy makers in Vietnam of what type of improvements are most critical in order to make the value proposition a reality

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67 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Towards A Value Proposition for Vietnam

What is Unique about Vietnam?

• Location

• Demographics

• Legacy of influence from China, Europe, US

• Natural resources

• Established positions in selected global markets (footwear, apparel, coffee, and seafood products)

• …

What does Vietnam aim to offer?

• Access to a growing market and region

• Manufacturing base to compliment MNCs Chinese operations

• Integration into/access to ASEAN-wide cluster networks (electronics, automotive, ..)

• Strong clusters in areas like footwear, apparel, coffee, and seafood products

• …

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68 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Vietnam’s Competitiveness Challenge: From Ambition to Action

Provide access to existing

comparativeadvantages

Enable emergenceof new

competitiveadvantages

Low labor costsNatural endowments

Productivity