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Defining Climate Service Defining Climate Service Needs within the Context Needs within the Context
of Comprehensive of Comprehensive Disaster ManagementDisaster Management
Liz RileyLiz RileyDeputy Executive DirectorDeputy Executive Director
Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management AgencyCaribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency
Barbados Town and Country Planning Society SeminarBarbados Town and Country Planning Society SeminarOctober 28, 2011October 28, 2011
BarbadosBarbados
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Presentation Presentation OverviewOverview
CDEMA – Caribbean Disaster CDEMA – Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management AgencyEmergency Management Agency
The Caribbean Hazards and Climate The Caribbean Hazards and Climate ChangeChange
Comprehensive Disaster Management Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) – A Framework for Engagement (CDM) – A Framework for Engagement on the GFCSon the GFCS
Needs going forwardNeeds going forward
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What is CDEMA?What is CDEMA?
Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA - formally CDERA) is the regional Agency (CDEMA - formally CDERA) is the regional inter-governmental Agency responsible for disaster inter-governmental Agency responsible for disaster management in the Caribbean Community management in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM)(CARICOM)
CDERA established in 1991 by an Agreement of CDERA established in 1991 by an Agreement of Heads of Government of CARICOMHeads of Government of CARICOM
September 1, 2009 – official date of transition from September 1, 2009 – official date of transition from CDERA to CDEMACDERA to CDEMA
18 Participating States – Haiti and Suriname joined 18 Participating States – Haiti and Suriname joined September 1, 2009September 1, 2009
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CDEMA Participating StatesCDEMA Participating States
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Caribbean region is Caribbean region is very prone to very prone to hazards (natural hazards (natural and man-made)and man-made)
Climate variability Climate variability
and change likely to and change likely to increase frequency increase frequency and severity of and severity of hydro hydro meteorological meteorological eventsevents
Increased exposure Increased exposure to natural hazards to natural hazards within the last two within the last two decadesdecades
Spatial distribution of hurricanes and storms in the Spatial distribution of hurricanes and storms in the Caribbean Region (1900-2004)Caribbean Region (1900-2004)
The Caribbean Hazards The Caribbean Hazards LandscapeLandscape
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SOURCE: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Database 2008
Hazards of Concern at the Hazards of Concern at the Regional LevelRegional Level
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Selected Hazard Selected Hazard Impacts in the Impacts in the CaribbeanCaribbeanTIMETIME PLACEPLACE DISASTERDISASTER IMPACTIMPACT19881988 JamaicaJamaica Hurricane Hurricane
GilbertGilbert65% GDP65% GDP
19891989 5 5 countriescountries
Hurricane Hurricane HugoHugo
US$412 MUS$412 M
19991999 DominicaDominica Hurricane Hurricane LennyLenny
53% GDP53% GDP
20042004 Haiti & DRHaiti & DR FloodingFlooding 270 deaths270 deaths
20042004 GrenadaGrenada Hurricane IvanHurricane Ivan US$895 MUS$895 M
20042004 JamaicaJamaica Hurricane IvanHurricane Ivan US$592 MUS$592 M
20052005 GuyanaGuyana FloodingFlooding 60% GDP60% GDP
20102010 Saint Saint LuciaLucia
Hurricane Hurricane TomasTomas
334M US$334M US$
Various sources: Collated by CDEMA
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Storm Surge, Palmiste Grenada, Storm Surge, Palmiste Grenada, Hurricane Lenny, 1999Hurricane Lenny, 1999
Landslide – Marc, Saint Landslide – Marc, Saint Lucia (Hurricane Tomas Lucia (Hurricane Tomas
2010)2010)
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Gouyave, Grenada Gouyave, Grenada Hurricane LennyHurricane Lenny
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Climate change Climate change impactsimpacts
Sea Level Rise – IPCC 3Sea Level Rise – IPCC 3rdrd Assessment Report avg Assessment Report avg 5.0mm/yr over the 215.0mm/yr over the 21stst Century Century
Temperature increases: 11 of the 12 warmest Temperature increases: 11 of the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 12 years on record have occurred in the last 12 years. If concentrations of all GHG and aerosols years. If concentrations of all GHG and aerosols kept constant at 2000 levels, further warming of kept constant at 2000 levels, further warming of 0.1degrees C would be expected *0.1degrees C would be expected *
‘‘Very likely” that extreme heat events and heavy Very likely” that extreme heat events and heavy precipitation will become more frequent*precipitation will become more frequent*
‘‘Likely” that future tropical cyclones will become Likely” that future tropical cyclones will become more intense with larger peak wind speeds and more intense with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation*more heavy precipitation*
* 4th IPCC Assessment Report
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Climate change Climate change impactsimpacts
Climate change impacts will vary Climate change impacts will vary from country to country, region to from country to country, region to region, may also vary from region, may also vary from community to community since community to community since impacts are linked to existing impacts are linked to existing vulnerabilitiesvulnerabilities
Potential impacts from a 1 m Potential impacts from a 1 m sea level rise in the Caribbean sea level rise in the Caribbean
Nearly 1,300 km2 land area lost (e.g., 5% of The Nearly 1,300 km2 land area lost (e.g., 5% of The Bahamas, 2% Antigua and Barbuda). Bahamas, 2% Antigua and Barbuda).
Over 110,000 people displaced (e.g., 5% of Over 110,000 people displaced (e.g., 5% of population in The Bahamas, 3% Antigua and population in The Bahamas, 3% Antigua and Barbuda). Barbuda).
At least 149 multi-million dollar tourism resorts At least 149 multi-million dollar tourism resorts damaged or lost, with beach assets lost or greatly damaged or lost, with beach assets lost or greatly degraded at many more tourism resorts. degraded at many more tourism resorts.
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Potential impacts from a 1 m Potential impacts from a 1 m sea level rise in the Caribbean sea level rise in the Caribbean
Over 1% agricultural land lost, with implications Over 1% agricultural land lost, with implications for food supply and rural livelihoods (e.g., 5% in for food supply and rural livelihoods (e.g., 5% in Dominica, 6% in The Bahamas, 5% in St. Kitts Dominica, 6% in The Bahamas, 5% in St. Kitts and Nevis). and Nevis).
Transportation networks severely disrupted, Transportation networks severely disrupted, including loss or damage of 21 (28%) CARICOM including loss or damage of 21 (28%) CARICOM airports, lands surrounding 35 ports inundated airports, lands surrounding 35 ports inundated (out of 44) and loss of 567 km of roads (e.g., 14% (out of 44) and loss of 567 km of roads (e.g., 14% of road network in The Bahamas, 12% Guyana, of road network in The Bahamas, 12% Guyana, 14% in Dominica). 14% in Dominica).
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Source: Delivering transformational change 2011-21 Implementing the CARICOM ‘Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change’ (2011) quoting Caribsave (2010)
Economic Costs of Climate Change Economic Costs of Climate Change projected annual cost of inaction by 2025 projected annual cost of inaction by 2025 (taking into account increased hurricane (taking into account increased hurricane damages, loss of tourism revenue, and damages, loss of tourism revenue, and infrastructure damages) infrastructure damages)
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Source: Delivering transformational change 2011-21 Implementing the CARICOM ‘Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change’ (2011) quoting Caibsave 2010
Redefining Redefining DevelopmentDevelopment
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“Development must be redefined to be sensitive to disaster and climate
risks”
Global Assessment Report 2011
Comprehensive Disaster Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) – The Caribbean Management (CDM) – The Caribbean Brand of Disaster Risk ManagementBrand of Disaster Risk Management
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CDM Strategy 2013-2023CDM Strategy 2013-2023
• 10 year strategy – longer planning horizon10 year strategy – longer planning horizon
• Deeper integration of climate change Deeper integration of climate change adaptation issues under the umbrella of adaptation issues under the umbrella of resilienceresilience
• Inclusion of niche groups to be targeted – Inclusion of niche groups to be targeted – Finance and Economic Planning. Physical Finance and Economic Planning. Physical Planning. Climate Change Focal Points and Planning. Climate Change Focal Points and EnvironmentEnvironment
• Operational Readiness and strengthening of Operational Readiness and strengthening of Early warning Systems Early warning Systems
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The Global Framework for Climate The Global Framework for Climate Services aims to enable society to Services aims to enable society to manage the risks and manage the risks and opportunities arising from opportunities arising from climate variability and change climate variability and change betterbetter, especially for those who , especially for those who are most vulnerable to such risksare most vulnerable to such risks
2020
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Climate Services Needs of Climate Services Needs of Disaster ManagersDisaster Managers
Drought prediction informationDrought prediction information
Climate Outlook forum (CARICOF) Climate Outlook forum (CARICOF)
precipitation information at a minimum on a precipitation information at a minimum on a
quarterly basis – informs ground saturation quarterly basis – informs ground saturation
and by extension flood scenariosand by extension flood scenarios
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Existing interface mechanisms Existing interface mechanisms and recommendations for and recommendations for
improvementsimprovements
• User-Interface Platform for operation User-Interface Platform for operation
• DEWETRA platform is established and being utilized. DEWETRA platform is established and being utilized. CDEMA CU therefore views this as the platform to be CDEMA CU therefore views this as the platform to be utilized going forward within our Participating States for utilized going forward within our Participating States for national and regional level purposesnational and regional level purposes
• Improvements required relate to the expansion of the Improvements required relate to the expansion of the Platform into the other 8 CDEMA Participating States; Platform into the other 8 CDEMA Participating States; strengthening of existing spatial data sets etc.strengthening of existing spatial data sets etc.
• Space for Dialogue exists through national committees for Space for Dialogue exists through national committees for disaster managementdisaster management
• Improvements – integration of climate service analyzed Improvements – integration of climate service analyzed results into national and regional level plans, protocols results into national and regional level plans, protocols and procedures (for emergencies) and for longer term and procedures (for emergencies) and for longer term development planning. The latter through the lens of development planning. The latter through the lens of longer term climate change.longer term climate change.
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Capacity development Capacity development needs to implement the needs to implement the
GFCS at regional and GFCS at regional and national levelsnational levels
Need for better understanding of the GFCS amongst Need for better understanding of the GFCS amongst
disaster Managersdisaster Managers
Expansion of the DEWETRA Platform application to the Expansion of the DEWETRA Platform application to the
broader Caribbean Region (training, data collection, broader Caribbean Region (training, data collection,
training in interpretation for national personnel)training in interpretation for national personnel)
Strengthening of the sustainable real time hydrological Strengthening of the sustainable real time hydrological
data collection network to serve multiple purposesdata collection network to serve multiple purposes
Population of the platform with other relevant spatial Population of the platform with other relevant spatial
layerslayers
Institutional arrangements, Institutional arrangements, partnerships and processes required partnerships and processes required
to operationalize the GFCS at the to operationalize the GFCS at the national levelnational level
• National Level:National Level:
• Institutional Arrangements: Mechanisms exist with Disaster Institutional Arrangements: Mechanisms exist with Disaster Managers through the National Disaster Management Managers through the National Disaster Management Committees. Mechanism needs to be strengthened to ensure Committees. Mechanism needs to be strengthened to ensure the national committee is risk oriented. the national committee is risk oriented.
• Retooling of national Meteorological services to deliver or Retooling of national Meteorological services to deliver or support delivery of climate services (retooling needs may support delivery of climate services (retooling needs may vary based on the current mandate of the meteorological vary based on the current mandate of the meteorological services ie. Forecasting vs. non-forecasting territory)services ie. Forecasting vs. non-forecasting territory)
• Organizational mandates and structuresOrganizational mandates and structures
• Legislative framework for operationLegislative framework for operation
• Monitoring and Evaluation – how do we measure the Monitoring and Evaluation – how do we measure the changes emerging from the climate service changes emerging from the climate service interventions?interventions?
• Communication modalities will require attentionCommunication modalities will require attention04/11/2304/11/23
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Institutional arrangements, Institutional arrangements, partnerships and processes required partnerships and processes required
to operationalize the GFCS at the to operationalize the GFCS at the regional levelregional level
• Regional Level:Regional Level:
• Strengthening of the CIMH to sustainably Strengthening of the CIMH to sustainably deliver on this mandate inclusive of deliver on this mandate inclusive of investment in further researchinvestment in further research
• Specific needs to be defined but couched Specific needs to be defined but couched within the context of CIMH designation as within the context of CIMH designation as a regional climate centrea regional climate centre
04/11/2304/11/232525
