1 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 The Next Agenda for Sustainable Development Research Dennis Meadows 2009 Balaton Group Meeting Balatonszemes, Hungary; 8.9.09

1Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09

The Next Agenda for Sustainable Development

Research

Dennis Meadows

2009 Balaton Group Meeting

Balatonszemes, Hungary; 8.9.09


The global society will change more over the next 20 years than in the past 100. How can we design our efforts to have the maximum professional impact?How can we design our efforts to minimize the disruption to our personal lives?


I will indicate why I foresee a period of enormous change. Then I will list and justify my

selections for:• The clients to address.

• The high leverage issues for the next two decades.

• A few of the solutions that I believe have the potential for revolutionary impact.


We are entering a period of enormous change


The Reference ScenarioOriginalReport

Today

Industrial Output

Population

Pollution

Food

Resources


World Population


Industrial Production


Index of World Metals Use


One Indicator of Overshoot


USA = 9


The main forces for change will be climate change and

resource scarcity - especially fossil fuels and water.


Climate Change


CO2 Concentration


Temperature in Austria for different climate scenarios

Formayer 2008

Today

Goal


New Report Says World Is Warming Faster than Thought

a new study by an international research team has determined that the two-degree goal is no longer achievable.

Volker Mrasek, Der Spiegel on-line; 18.6.09


Fossil Fuel Depletion



Amounts and Sources of Energy in Austria: 1980 - 2020

Coal

Oil

Gas

Solar


2006 Energy Use by Function

Transport

Space & Water

Lights & Computers

Steam Prod.

Industry Ovens

Stationary Engines

Electrochemical

Transport is thelargest and fastestgrowing sector


Transportation Cost Declined: 1920 - 1990

All values in $US


Cheap Transport Has Enabled:• Urbanization of the population

– High-rise structures

• Globalization of trade• Diversification of the food supply• Build up of large populations in arid areas• Mass tourism• Maintenance of public health• Projection of global military power• Many other dominant features of industrial

society


The Easy Oil is Gone

• Oil discoveries peaked in 1960s. • Every year since 1984 oil consumption has

exceeded oil discovery. In 2006 discoveries = 9 billion barrels (bb), consumption = 31 bb.

• Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were discovered 1917 - 1968; 2 in the 1970s; 0 since.

• Oil production in 2007 was lower than in 2006.• One projection is that oil production in 2030 will

be half current levels.


Energy Gap

• Today 13 TW, 2050 projected - 30

• Projected shortfall is ~ 15 TW

• Building 1 1000 MW nuclear plant/day for 50 years would give 10 TW

• Wind offers 2-4 TW

• Solar offers 20 globally

• Biomass has 7-10 theoretical maximum


Some Net Energy Yields

• US Oil: 1930 - 100; 1970 - 30; 2005 - 15

• Imported Oil: 30

• Coal: 10 - 80

• Nuclear: 10

• Firewood: 25

• Photovoltaics: 15-45

• Oil Sands: 2-3


Energy Return on Investment


Fossil Energy

Use= Numberof

People

Capitalper

Person

Energyper

Capital

Fractionof Energy

from FossilXXX

DemographyLiving Style

EnergyEfficiency

SolarEnergy

Culture Technology


Two Types of Problems

• Global Problems - affect everyone and they can only be solved by international effort: climate change, ocean fish depletion, nuclear proliferation, changing consumer preferences.

• Universal Problems - affect everyone and they can be solved by local effort: energy scarcity, soil erosion, water pollution, loss of market share, falling corporate profits.


Two Types of Policy

• Preventive policies reduce or avoid problems.

• Adaptive policies reduce the harmful consequences of problems that can not be prevented.


The Best Clients Need:

• Sufficient resources to pay for the analysis and then implement the recommendations.

• A time horizon long enough to stay focused on the issue until positive results can be achieved.

30

The Best Clients

ResourcesTime Horizon

Individuals & Organizations Communities

Nations & International Organizations

Clie

nts’

Pot

entia

l for

Cha

nge

31

Thus I recommend helping communities develop preventive policies for universal problems and adaptive problems for global problems

32

Cautions

• I do not list all the problems I foresee. • Of course there will be problems that I do not

now anticipate.• The problems will be combined and

synergistic.• The problems will not grow slowly; there will

be tipping points.


Emerging Problems for Communities

• Water– Using water that is recycled from earlier use.– Ensuring equitable public access.– Achieving drastically greater efficiency in water use.– Implementing absolute demand limits.

• Energy– Rationing increasingly scarce energy supplies in ways

that are equitable.– Lowering expectations about energy reliability.– Integrating non-carbon and decentralized sources into

the grid.– Achieving drastically greater efficiency in energy use.


Emerging Problems• Climate

– Improving monitoring and response for temperature-related public health emergencies.

– Reducing damage from fluctuations in wind and precipitation.– Coping with increased water levels in coastal communities.

• Food– Preparing for interruptions in food supply from problems in

transport and production.

• Waste– Reducing the energy costs of collection and disposal systems.– Reducing waste streams; increasing recycling of waste and

products

• Governance– Increasing community cohesion and time horizon.


Criteria for Selecting Technologies

• Not currently the focus of much national political attention.

• Have the potential to yield short-term benefits to one or more important interest groups, while solving long-term problems.

• Address local issues.• Offer important solutions to urgent

problems of the future.


Potentially Revolutionary Technologies

• Biochar• Local currencies• Cogenerating technologies for high-temperature

geothermal• Hardware and software for the smart grid

– integrating electric cars into the grid.– promoting off-peak heat storage.

• Community gardens• Car sharing• Communal living


I have two pens

Montblanc

Sundance


The Montblanc Pen

• I use it for writing.

• It is made from platinum and precious resin.

• It cost about US $250.


The Sundance Pen

• I use it for writing.

• It is made from wood, plastic, and recycled cardboard.

• It cost about US $1.


Which pen is more sustainable?

• Refer to the Montblanc as pen #1; refer to the Sundance as pen #2.

• Please decide which pen you think is more sustainable and show either 1 or 2 fingers silently to the person sitting next to you.


More Information• I never take the Montblanc pen out of my

office, so I will use it the rest of my life and then pass it on to a relative.

• I lose the Sundance pen almost every time I take it away from my home, so I have to buy many dozens of them each year.

• When the Montblanc pen ink cartridge becomes empty, I buy a refill.

• If I still have the Sundance pen when its ink cartridge becomes empty, I will throw the pen away and get a new one.


I will ask again:Which pen is more sustainable?

• Refer to the Montblanc as pen #1; refer to the Sundance as pen #2.

• Please decide which pen you think is more sustainable and show either 1 or 2 fingers silently to the person sitting next to you.


Main Lessons• Many votes changed after the new

information.

• The new information did not describe the pens’ physical technology; it described my relationship, habits, and attitudes toward the pens.

• Sustainability is not mainly in the physical technology of the tool, it is in our relationship to the tool.

• Achieving sustainable development in the next two decades will require changes in attitudes and goals.

Documents

1 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 The Next Agenda for Sustainable Development Research Dennis Meadows 2009 Balaton Group Meeting Balatonszemes, Hungary; 8.9.09