1 DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY IN AFRICA (DEA) WORKSHOP Prof. F. D. Yamba and E. Matsika CEEEZ Private Bag E721, Lusaka, ZAMBIA Tel/Fax: +260 - 1 - 240267 Email:

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DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY IN AFRICA(DEA) WORKSHOP

Prof. F. D. Yamba and E. Matsika

CEEEZ

Private Bag E721, Lusaka, ZAMBIA

Tel/Fax: +260 - 1 - 240267

Email: [email protected] /[email protected]

[email protected]

Mulungushi International Conference Centre9th September 2005

Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia Limited

CEEEZ

ZAMBIAN EXPERIENCE ON METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK ON SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT: CDM PERSPECTIVES

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BACKGROUND (1)

In accordance with the Kyoto Protocol and Convention, “the purpose of the CDM shall be to assist parties not included in the Annex I (developing countries) in achieving sustainable development” It is therefore an explicit requirement that CDM

projects should contribute to the achievement of SD in the host country

Project participants must demonstrate that the CDM project assist in achieving SD and also that it meets the sustainability requirements of the host country

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BACKGROUND (2)

“It is the host party’s prerogative to confirm whether a CDM project activity achieves SD”

In this context, the host country (Zambia) has clear sovereignty and responsibility to evaluate the project and decides whether it complies with its SD targets and priorities

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BACKGROUND (3)

Question: How are projects assessed to meet SD criteria?

This requires evaluation/approval of CDM projects by the host country

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ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (1)

How possible is it to evaluate an isolated project and to decide whether such a project is sustainable or not?

Various methods exist: qualitative and quantitative

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What is ranking (in this context)?• A systematic tool that allows the qualitative

comparison of very different and interrelated policy priorities and preferences

• For sustainable development, ranking is useful for assisting policy makers come to a uniform decision on what should be prioritised.

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Multi-criteria analysis (MCA): a tool developed for complex multi-criteria problems that include qualitative and quantitative aspects. All these methods involve two stages: first, goals and objectives are clarified, and second, weights are attached to different objectives. The following MCA methods can be used:

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Preferential Ranking: simplest and does not require scoring as such, but indicators with + or – sign to indicate a range

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Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) cont’d:

Normal ranking: closely related to preferential ranking, except here, the range is indicated with numbers rather than + or –

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3

5

7

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Weakly important

Less Important

Moderately Important

More Important

Extremely Important

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Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) cont’d:

Ordinal ranking: technique where each expert is asked to put the list of decision elements in order of importance or hierarchy of importance

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Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) cont’d: Rating: requires that a decision maker

allocates or indicates a score between 1 – 100 (ideally, total adds to 100)

Indicators

Score

Modification formulae

Rating %

Indicator 1

30

30(110/100)

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Indicator 2

35

35(110/100)

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Indicator 3

45

45 /(1 10/100)

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Total

110

indicator score / (total for indicators /100)

100

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Pairwise: simply a round of tournament technique by which every item in a list is compared to every item according to a single criterion

Decision hierarchy: combines normal ranking and pairwise ranking with simple vector mathematics, and considered at different levels of aggregation

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Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4

Sustainable Development

Economics Society Environment

Reduced Debt Ratio

Other indicators

Gender Equality

Other indicators

Better air

Other indicators

Qns Qns Qns Qns Qns Qns

Indicates strong impact on

Indicates weak impact on Qn a question on the CDM checklist (see Section 4.2.2 for more details)

Figure: An Example of Decision Hierarchy

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Step 1: identification of sustainability criteria Should reflect the requirements of the host

country as well as preference of the decision makers involved

Presented as targets grouped in an objective tree embracing the accepted criteria of economic, environmental, social and technological aspects

Steps for identifying SD criteria under CDM

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Step 2: Definition of indicators Indicators are associated to each SD criteria

above They measure to what extent a particular

CDM project meets the SD criteria Qualitative, semi-quantitative and

quantitative To be comparable, all indicators are

calibrated with the same scale

Steps for identifying SD criteria under CDM…

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Step 3: Weighing the criteria According to the specific context and

preferences of decision makers, the relative importance of criterion is determined

Mixture of top-down approach and participatory techniques

Step 4: Assessment of CDM project In a review process, a project receives a rating

of how it performs against those indicators based on a quantitative/qualitative assessment


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Step 5: Aggregation and interpretation of results The project’s rating of all criteria are

aggregated to a single number that reflects the eligibility of a project in regard to SD in the host country

Cut off mark below which projects fail to be successful: this determines how stringent a country wishes to make the requirements that CDM projects conform to SD criteria


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ZAMBIA’S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SD FOR CDM (1)

Zambia is one of the few countries in Africa which has made good progress in developing SD criteria and indicators for CDM – through CDM – SUSAC (2000 – 2002)

Methodology developed by CEEEZ for assessing SD is presented:

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The rating approach gives appropriate weighting to the 3 broadly agreed upon principles of sustainable development goals, namely economic, environmental and social.

Indicators related to each of these principles are then identified in relation to the indicators agreed upon earlier.

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The ranking approach then weighs each indicator in each given category after which the total marks accrued are proportionally related to a percentage of a given category.

Based on the principle above, the assessment for this project is undertaken as follows:...

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INDICATOR MARKS OBTAINED

REPRESENTATIVE WEIGHTING (%)

TOTAL (%)

Economic 38

Environmental 33

Social 29

Total 100

A project is eligible if it scores at least 55%, the threshold

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Sustainable Development Indicators (1)

Economic (1)

• Reducing the burden on the imports of energy and enhancing the balance of payment

• Increased investment in priority sectors of the economy

• Contributing to competitiveness at a micro-level, like industry

• Positive effects on the balance of payment• Improved sectoral productivity, growth and

linkages leading to higher contribution to GDP

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Economic (2)

• Reduction of energy intensity (energy used per unit product) at a micro level

• Increasing share in the contribution of renewable energy to the energy supply mix at a macro-level

• Job creation

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Sustainable Development Indicators (3) Environment

• Reduction of GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) aimed at enhancing global environmental integrity

• Reduction of local emissions (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC) impacting on air

• Reduction of local emissions (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC) impacting on water resources

• Reduction of local emissions (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC) impacting on land

• Reduction of local emissions (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC) impacting on bio-diversity

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Social

• Contribution to poverty reduction through local employment

• Contribution to more equitable distribution of resources (reduction of wealth disparities)

• Increase in percentage of rural and peri-urban population with access to energy supply

• Affordability of the project product (s).• Capacity building (e.g. transfer of technical skills)• Reduction of health hazards• Contribution to access to social amenities

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EXAMPLE: SD ASSESSMENT

INDICATORMARKS

OBTAINEDREPRESENTATIVE

WEIGHTING (%)TOTAL (%)

Economic 72.2% 38 27.4

Environmental 73.3% 33 24.2

Social 71.4% 29 20.7

Total 100 72.3

Table: Sustainable Development Evaluation for the Ethanol as an Alternative Fuel in Zambia

the project is eligible since the score is > 55%, the threshold

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CONCLUDING REMARKS (1)

Many SD indicators discussed for Zambia can apply to other developing countries

Presentation recommends a quantitative approach that combines two multi-criteria analysis methods namely rating and normal ranking methods

indicators are country-specific and depend on national circumstances

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CONCLUDING REMARKS (2)

indicators are dynamic and so should be reviewed in line with Government development plans and priorities

Despite being biased to CDM, the proposed methodological approach can be generically applied by developing specific sustainable development indicators

Documents

1 DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY IN AFRICA (DEA) WORKSHOP Prof. F. D. Yamba and E. Matsika CEEEZ Private Bag E721, Lusaka, ZAMBIA Tel/Fax: +260 - 1 - 240267 Email: