Upload
allan-weaver
View
215
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
Dr. Blair FeltmateIntact Chair, Climate Change Adaptation
Faculty of EnvironmentUniversity of [email protected]
Ph: 226-339-3506
Climate Change, Extreme Weather and Flooding:A Property & Casualty Perspective on
De-Risking the Canadian Housing Market
Evergreen Brick WorksUrban Watershed Forum
March 20, 2015
“Weather Gone Wild”CBC Documentary
2
Agenda
1. Climate change & extreme weather – things will get worse
2. Costs of climate change & extreme weather – going up
3. De-Risking the System – P&C Perspective1. Flood plain maps2. Natural Infrastructure Adaptation Program (NIAP)3. Home Adaptation Audit Program (HAAP)
4. Conclusions
2
3
Large Catastrophic Losses
Eastern Ice Storm
Quebec Floods
Slave Lake Fire
Ontario Wind and Rain
Alberta and Toronto Floods
3
3
4
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century [0.08 oC/decade for past 100 years].
WHAT SCIENCE TELLS US ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
World Energy Supply
Source: International Energy Agency
Extreme weather is a serious problem for major Canadian cities to address from the perspective of adaptation – now and 30 years from now.
n = 16
6
Is floodplain mapping sufficiently understood in the regions identified thatunderwriting (risk exposure) due to flooding can be adequately calculated?(Y = Yes, N = No, DK = Don’t Know)
*
7
Flood plain maps in Canada should be updated to account for new and future extremes in precipitation.
Urgency
Fea
sib
ilit
y
Very Low Very High
Ve
ry H
igh
Ve
ry L
ow
1 1 1
3
4Eastern Canada(Don’t Know = 8)
4
3
111
Urgency
Fea
sib
ilit
y
Very Low Very High
Ve
ry H
igh
Ve
ry L
ow
2 3 1
5Central Canada(Don’t Know = 6)
1
5
1
132
*consistent withP&C executives
8
Urgency
Fea
sib
ilit
y
Very Low Very High
Ve
ry H
igh
Ve
ry L
ow
1
1
1
6
2
Western Canada(Don’t Know = 6)
4
6
4
1 1
Urgency
Fea
sib
ilit
yVery Low Very High
Ve
ry H
igh
Ve
ry L
ow
2
1
1Northern Canada(Don’t Know = 9)
2 1
1 11
1
1
1
22
Flood plain maps in Canada should be updated to account for new and future extremes in precipitation.
*consistent withP&C executives
9
For flood insurance to be profitable for your company, infrastructure (naturaland built) under the direction of government control would have to be substantially “flood hardened” relative to its current condition.
Natural Infrastructure Adaptation Program - NIAP
10
If provided with overland flood insurance, the average homeowner willinitiate and maintain action(s) to limit the probability of flooding around his/herhome (e.g., moving downspouts away from house, ensuring outside sewergrates are clear, elevating electrical equipment off basement floor, etc.).
Home Adaptation Audit Program – HAAP
11
HOME ADAPTATION AUDIT PROGRAM (HAAP)
Home Adaptation Audit Program – well received by (e.g.,):•Federal Government
o Environment, Finance, NRCan, Public Safety•Provincial Governments (Ontario, Alberta, Quebec)
o Ministers, DMs, ADMs, DGs•Federation of Canadian Municipalities•Association of Municipalities of Ontario•Conservation Authorities
Program Focuses on 100 Points of Audit Reference•e.g., eaves & downspouts, window wells, sump pumps/power supply•2-3 audits/day/auditor•ROI – preventing 3 flooded basements/auditor/year pays for the program
Going Forward•develop training material•Administered by whom? – role of Feds (NRC), provinces, private organization(s)?•Who pays? -- homeowner, municipality, provincial subsidy?•Role of insurers? Risk adjusted premium? Lower deductible? Higher Cap. Limit?•Role of Banks? Inclusion in mortgage home inspections (No UFFI)
Conclusion
1) Develop up-to-date flood plain maps that anticipate the future
2) Weather harden municipal and sub-urban infrastructure (physical and natural) – launch a national “Natural Infrastructure Adaptation Program”
3) Launch a “Home Adaptation Audit Program”
12
Not adapting to climate change/extreme weather is a “bet we cannot afford to lose”
12