1 Eleftheria Vasileiadou, Matthijs Hisschemller, Arthur Petersen, Channah Betgen, Wilco Hazeleger, Iris de Hoog, Erik, Min Adapting to extreme weather: perspectives of social actors 2 Bridging the gap: Problem definition Uncertainties with respect to changes in extreme weather events Need for robust adaptation governance Adaptation options with different, even conflicting, outcomes... Indicators of extreme events for evaluating adaptation options relevant to stakeholders and robust for modellers 3 Research questions 1.Which perspectives are perceived as most important for adaptation to extreme weather events by different social actors? 2.To what extent do actors perspectives correlate to actor characteristics, such as their affiliation with specific sectors, level of concern and knowledge? 4 Why perspectives of social actors? 1. Robust adaptation strategies: scenario independent; beneficial to society inclusion of stakeholders 2. Tapping in local and tacit knowledge 3. Ensuring collaboration in adaptation measures The way to find out about this is through a research approach that focuses on identifying the underlying frames that shape social actors views and opinions rather than focusing on (volatile) opinions and preferences 5 Perspectives, meaning Underlying frames that we use to make sense of our observations and experiences. Personal construct theory with a focus on bipolar constructs e.g. Wet vs. Dry Safe for me vs. Dangerous for me I can intervene vs. I cannot intervene Constructs are both a result of ones experiences and examination of people and places, as well as they shape how individuals frame their world and experiences. 6 Determinants of differences in perspectives Affiliation with economic sectors Level of information Involvement in events and workshops Level of concern 7 Case sectors Immediate response to extreme weather: public health (6); crisis management (5); water sector (6) Affected by extreme weather: hospitality (6); recreation (9); transportation (5), Vulnerable individuals (4) Total: 41 interviews 8 Repertory Grid Technique Bipolar constructs can be found, using as probing devices the elements: instances of the topic under investigation. 9 Example How are two photos similar and different from the third? 123 10 Procedure Select the 3 most important constructs, for adaptation to extreme weather events Ranking on a 1-7 scale all photos on these selected constructs Factor analysis of 121 constructs (PCA) Additional questions: How informed you feel? (1-7) How concerned you feel? (1-7), Have you participated before in relevant events?(0/1) 11 Findings Component Variance explained Interpretation Perspective 116%Very disastrous, rescue needed Perspective 215%New versus old weather extremes Perspective 312%Prepare for (material) damage Perspective 412%People involved Perspective 512%Beyond imagination Perspective 66%Natural resources management 12 Perspective 1 Very disastrous, rescue needed! (12 interviewees) i.e. Very disastrous least disastrous Rescue needed fast help can wait Violent/ you can do little about peaceful and calm 13 Perspective 2 New versus old weather extremes (13 interviewees) i.e. High temperatures low temperatures No impact on transportation Impacts on transportation Happens the recent years happens since long 14 Perspective 3 Prepare for (material) damage (8 interviewees) i.e. Damage on electricity infrastructure no damage on electricity infras. Need to prepare no need to prepare Causes maximal damage causes no damage 15 Perspective 4 People involved (4 interviewees) i.e. Health impacts No health impacts Induced by humans not induced by humans Response with help no response with help 16 Perspective 5 Beyond imagination (8 interviewees) i.e. Extreme not extreme Complete disaster not complete ramp Not possible to intervene possible to intervene 17 Perspective 6 Natural resources management (3 interviewees) i.e. Related to water (shortage) not related to water (shortage) Threat to food production no threat to food production Complex adaptation measures simple adaptation measures 18 Determinants Relation to extreme weather Informedness (AA=55%) Prior event (Yes=41%) Perspective 1 Affected 18 Responding 3 29%14% Perspective 2 Affected 11 Responding 5 59%24% Perspective 3 Affected 7 Responded 5 42%8% Perspective 4 Affected 3 Responding 7 80%100% Perspective 5 Affected 7 Responding 6 77%78% Perspective 6Responding 460% 19 Adaptation governance immediate help and crisis management (perspective 1); addressing heat waves and drought (perspective 2); preparing infrastructure for storms (perspective 3); addressing events that endanger human lives and have victims (perspective 4); natural resource management and spatial planning (perspective 6). Are robust strategies, covering multiple perspectives, possible? Perspectives are cross-sectoral: Sector-specific strategies may be too limiting 20 How do extremes change in the future? Coldest winter day in the year: 1 o C to 2.9 o C warmer Hottest summer day in the year: 1 o C to 3.8 o C warmer Long periods of precipitation in winter: 4% to 12% increase Extreme storms in summer: 5% to 27% increase No insight for changes in wind extremes KNMI06 scenarios for 2050 21 Communicating extremes We need to re-think the role and impact of events and workshops: participants use formal and elaborate perspectives, but they dont necessarily feel the need to prepare! They may feel more prepared, but less concerned about extreme weather!