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1
Energieeffizienz in ChinaVon Yonglei Luo Li Liu
Energiewirtschaft und -systeme
2006 TU Berlin
2
Herausforderung in China
3
Energieintensitäten
Quelle: IEA 2004
4
Der steigenden Energiebedarf
Die Ursachen sind:
Höhe Investition in Anlagevermögen
Die Änderung von Industriestruktur
steigender Wohlstand
stetig wachsende Bevölkerung
5
Höhe Investition in Anlagevermögen
2002 2003 2004
Steigerungsrate von Investition
16,9% 28,1% 25,8%
Stahl Zement Buntmetalle Aluminium (Oxyd)
Glas
2002~2004
durchschnittliche Steigerungsrate
(%)
22,8 13,6 17,4 13,8 12,8
Que
Quelle: www.cfren.com
6
Die Änderung von Industriestruktur
2001 2004 Die Änderung
Sekundärer Sektor Anteil
50,1% 53% 2,9%
Industrie 43,5% 46% +2,5%
Schwerindustrie 61,5% 67,6% +6,1%
Quelle: www.cfren.com
Tertiärer Sektor Anteil
34,1% 31,8% -2,3%
7
Steigender Wohlstand
Automobil
(Auto)
Elektrogeräte Kommunikati-onsausstattung
(Handy, PC)
2001~2004 durchschnittlicheSteigerungsrate
p.a.
54,1% 16% 60,7%
Gas und Erdgas werden zunehmend in Haushalten angewendet.
Quelle: www.cfren.com
8
Energiereservenanteil in der Welt
Kohle Erdöl Erdgas
Reservenanteil in der Welt
11% 2,4% 1,2%
China hat 1,3 Mrd. Bevölkerung, 21% der gesamten Bevölkerung in der Welt.
Energieressourcen pro Kopf betragen weniger als 50 Prozent des Weltdurchschnitts.
9
Energiesituation in ChinaSeit 2003 ist China der zweitgrößte Energie-Konsument der Welt, ca.11% derglobalen Energiekonsummenge (Weltbevölkerungsanteil 21 %)
Energiekonsum in China (in 2004)
3% 0.4%
7,60%
23%
66%
KohleErdölHydroErdgasNuclear
Quelle: China Statistical Yearbook 2004
10
Energieförderung und -verbrauch in den Jahren 2003 (in Mt)
Quelle: China Statistical Yearbook 2004
1189
24346,5
1125
389
47
0200400600800
100012001400
Kohle Erdöl Erdgas
Förderung
Verbrauch
11
Energiesituation (Öl)
In 2003 war China der zweitgrößte Erdöl-Konsument in der Welt . Seit 1993 ist China zum Erdöl-Importstaat geworden.
Weltweite Ölnachfrage (Mio. Barrels/day)
DemandAnnual
Change Annual
Change(%)
2004 2003 2004 2003 2004
North America 25,1425,14 0,47 0,57 1,9 2,3
Europe 16,47 0,20 0,26 1,2 1,6
China 6,37 0,55 0,85 11 15,4
Other Asia 8,54 0,22 0,44 2,8 5,4
Africa 2,81 0,04 0,07 1,7 2,4
World 82,45 1,85 2,66 2,4 3,3
Quelle: Oil Market Report , Dezember 2004 IEA
12
Ölnachfrage in China bis 2030
13
Energie Sicherheit
Je stärker die Abhängigkeit vom Import ist, desto größer ist das Versorgungsrisiko.
1. diversifizierter Rohöleinkauf
2. Etablieren einer strategischen Ölreserve Maßnahmen: 3. Erwerb von überseeischen
Ölvermögen (Lagerstätten) 4. Energiesparen
14
Diversifizierter Einkauf
Im Jahr 1993 wurde fast alles Rohöl aus Indonesien, Oman and Jemen importiert
Im Jahr 2004 war Saudi Arabia der größte Öl- Versorger Chinas und deckte 14% von Import
60% des Importes stammte aus Oman, Angola, Iran, Russland, Vietnam und Jemen
Der Rest waren Ölversorger aus mehreren Ländern
15
Weitere Maßnahmen
2. Strategische Ölreserve Bis 2008 werden Chinas Ölvorräte 100 Mio. Barrels erreichen. Das ist
gleich 35 Tags-Importe. Chinesische Regierung plant, dass Ölvorräte bis 2020 gleich 90
Tags-Importe sind.
3. Kaufen von überseeischem Ölvermögen Chinesische staatseigene Ölunternehmen kaufen ausländische
Ölquellen.
CNPC hat gerade Petro Kazakhstan angekauft
4. Energiesparen
16
CO2 Emission in 2001
24%
13% 16%
29%
5%12,60%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
Quelle: 2001 Energy-related Carbon Emissions
17
CO2 Emission
18
Schwefeldioxid-Belastung [Quelle: IEA 2002]
19
Lösung des Energieproblems
Angesichts steigender Erdölpreis, schwindender
Reserven und globaler Anstrengungen zum Klimaschutz sind alternativen zu fossile Energie gefragt. Erneuerbaren Energien wie Solar, Wind- und Wasserkraft, Biomaße oder Geothermie gehört die Zukunft. Erneuerbare Energie ist unerschöpflich und umweltverträglich.
20
Erneuerbare Energie in China
China plant, bis zum Jahr 2020 seinen Anteil erneuerbarer Quellen am Gesamtenergieverbrauch auf 15 Prozent zu steigern.
Allein die Windkraftkapazität soll bis 2020 auf 30 Gigawatt (GW) ausgebaut werden. Das wäre fast das Doppelte der derzeit in Deutschland installierten Kapazität.
Hinzukommen sollen weitere 20 GW Kraftwerkskapazität aus Bioenergie und 4 GW Kraftwerkskapazität aus Solarenergie kommen.
Zusammen mit großen Wasserkraftanlagen will China bis 2020 insgesamt mehr 30% seines Stromverbrauchs aus erneuerbaren Quellen erzeugen.
Quelle: China- Botschaft
21
Vorliegende Probleme
Technische Probleme China bemüht sich, die bislang importierten Anlagen zukünftig selber zu entwickeln, um die Kosten der Windkrafterzeugung zu reduzieren.
China versucht noch die Stromerzeugung aus Solarenergie technisch zu verbessern. Teuere importierende Anlagen behindern die Verbreitung von Solarenergie.
Umsiedlung bei großer Wasserkraft z.B. bei Drei-Schluchten-Staudamm am Yangtze müssen knapp zwei Millionen Menschen umgesiedelt werden.
22
Definition Energieeffizienz:
Die Wirkungsvolle Erzeugung und
Nutzung von Energie und
Einsparmöglichkeiten.
Quelle: Power on Energieeffizienz
23
Definition Energieeffizienz
Es gibt verschiedene Ansätze zur quantitativen Erfassung derEnergieeffizienz.
als Maßzahl der thermodynamische Wirkungsgrad
Anstelle des Outputs in Energieeinheiten werden oft auch andere Output-Größen verwendet.
nutzbarer Energieoutput
Energieinput
utEnergieinp
lometerPersonenkiutEnergieinp
[t] ktionStahlprodu
utenergieinp
he Wohnflaecbeheizte
24
Vorteile und Chancen
Der Energienutzer spart Kosten bei der Nutzung der Effizienz-Investition, muss aber diese zunächst finanzieren.
Die Schadstoffemissionen gehen zurück.
Der Staat spart eigene oder importierte Energieressourcen.
Energie kann in allen Sektoren eingespart werden.
Sparen die Verbraucher vermehrt Strom, dann werden weniger zusätzliche Kraftwerkskapazitäten benötigt
Quelle: GTZ-Energieeffizienz
25
Demonstration bei zehn Käseherstellern in Argentinien
Maßnahmen zur Energieeffizienz durch: Die Verbesserung des Dampferzeugers Eine bessere Isolierung Eine Kondensatrückführung Einführung einer temperaturabhängigen Lagerung im Gefrierkammer Energiekosteneinsparung Qualität der Produkte
Verminderung der co2 Ausstoß
Quelle: GTZ-Energieeffizienz
26
Maßnahme Energy efficiency refers to the ratio between
energy output (services such as light, heat and mobility) and input (primary energy). Improving energy efficiency both by reducing quantities of energy consumed and by changing processes, offers a powerful tool for achieving sustainable development:
1. by reducing the need for investment in energy infrastructure, 2. by cutting fuel costs, 3. by increasing competitiveness for businesses and welfare for consumers.
Quelle: IEA
27
Schlüsselrole der Regierung
to improve overall energy efficiency and move to a more-sustainable energy supply mix, the government can play three key roles:
1. Finance of socially and environmentally preferable energy options through investment incentives and low-cost loans;
2. Advocacy of sustainable energy development through education and by example, e.g., through government procurement programs;
3. Regulation of the boundaries of market activities,for example setting incentives through price signals,laws, and enforced financial penalties.
28
Die Staatliche Energiestrategie
Supply Side
1. Improve energy security Expand energy diplomacy. Create petroleum strategic reserve and warning system. Decrease energy imports through more renewables and increased
efficiency.
2. Expand supply Accelerate natural gas market development. Accelerate construction of hydro and nuclear power plants. Promote renewables through national legislation. Improve domestic oil production and yields.
29
Die Staatliche Energiestrategie
Supply Side
3. Rationalize pricing Institute property rights reform, but… ...relax property rights for new enterprises to use new technology. End local partition of energy markets. End price controls; move towards public bidding and auction.
4. Promote investment Set up “Environmentally Friendly Fund” to encourage renewables
and cleaner coal. - Increase state and private funding for oil and natural gas
exploration and development
30
Die Staatliche Energiestrategie
Demand Side
1.Change the energy supply mix - Decrease demand for coal and other fossil fuels. - Supply low-cost loans and grants to encourage deployment of clean coal technology..
2. Improve technology to decrease reliance on fossil fuels
3. Increase support for R&D, including domestic And international partnerships.
31
Die Staatliche Energiestrategie
Demand Side
4. Promote energy efficiency
Elevate energy conservation to a fundamental state policy. Establish a resource savings office. Raise public awareness. Establish economic incentives to save energy, including peak
power pricing. Implement stricter energy efficiency ordinances for equipment in
industry and buildings. Establish standards and labels, as well as a best practice system
for energy auditing. Introduce fuel taxes and fuel efficiency standards in the
transportation sector.
32
Energieeffizienz in Sektoren
Energieeffizienz
Energieversorgung(Energieerzeugung)
Industrie(Energienutzung)ca.70% von ∑E
Verkehr(Energienutzung)ca. 11% von ∑E
Haushalten &Öffentlichen Einrichtung
(Energienutzung)ca.17% von ∑E
∑E : Gesamter Energieverbrauch Chinas in 1998
33
Energiepolitik in Sektoren
Energieversorgung
1. Further promotion of electric power system reform
2. Elimination of coal generating units under 100 MW capacity by the State Power Corporation
3. Installation of desulfurization devices in all new coal-fired power plants
4. Increased efforts to develop low- and zero-carbon power generation technologies, including hydropower
5. Support for increased imports of advanced renewable energy technologies, including solar photovoltaics and fuel cells
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
34
Energiepolitik in Sektoren
Industrie
1. Demonstration and further dissemination of voluntary agreements for energy conservation
2. Modification of industrial design standards to promote energy conservation
3. Energy consumption benchmarking system for industrial processes
4. Regulatory system established to assist in enforcement of the Energy Conservation Law and implementation of pilot projects
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
35
Energiepolitik in Sektoren
Verkehr
1. Fuel tax for vehicles
2. Development of public transportation and institution of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) in big and medium cities
3. Clean fuel program for automobiles
4. Incentive program for international automobile manufacturers to introduce energy-efficient and environmentally friendly vehicles to Chinese market
5. Fuel efficiency standards for vehicles
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
36
Energiepolitik in Sektoren
Haushalten & Öffentlichen Einrichtung
1. Energy efficiency standards and reform of heat pricing
2. Minimum efficiency standards for household electrical appliances
3. Use of energy-efficient wall insulation expanded
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
37
THREE SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Ordinary Effort
Scenario 2: Promoting Sustainability
Scenario 3: Green Growth
The chinese goverment‘s goal is Green Growth.
China Regierung wird Green Growth nehmen.
Warum und Wie?
38
THREE SCENARIOS
Three scenarios were created to examine possible ways in which key input variables could influence China’s future energy consumption and carbon emissions.
The major differences in the three scenarios are the extent to which sustainable development policies are implemented, and the extent to which government estimated economic growth targets are achieved.
39
THREE SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Ordinary Effort
Scenario 2: Promoting Sustainability
Scenario 3:
Green Growth
Population in 2020 1.485 billion 1.47 billion 1.445 billion
Urbanization Rate in 2020
52.86% 55.78% 58.29%
Gross Domestic Product
Before 2010, GDP grows at 7.3% per year, and after 2010 at 6.7% per year.
Same as Ordinary Effort.
Same as Ordinary Effort.
Integration into Global Economy
Difficult Low impact on China’s economy
Positive impact on China’s economy
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
40
THREE SCENARIOSScenario 1: Ordinary Effort
Scenario 2: Promoting Sustainability
Scenario 3: Green Growth
Industrial Sectors
Low economic efficiency and international
Competitiveness
Somewhat improved economic efficiency and international competitiveness
High economic efficiency and international
competitiveness
Trans-portation
Public transportation development is poor.
Use of private vehicles grows quickly.
Fuel efficiency of vehicles rises slowly.
Public transportation development is strong.
Motorcycle use rises.
International vehicle emissions standards are
adopted.
Public transport is developed extensively; private
vehicle use grows more slowly than in other
scenarios.
International vehicle emissions standards are
adopted, as in Promoting Sustainability.
Advanced clean-fuel technologies are used for
public transport and automobiles.
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
41
THREE SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Ordinary Effort
Scenario 2: Promoting Sustainability
Scenario 3: Green Growth
Power Generation
Increased use of sulfur control technology on
power plants
Coal-fired power plants generate most electricity
Gradual development of hydropower, nuclear
power, IGCC and wind power
Very high growth rate in sulfur-control
technology on coal-fired power plants, reaching
all plants by 2020.
Clean-coal power generation technologies are
introduced beginning in 2010.
Development of hydropower, nuclear power,
IGCC and wind power is faster than in Ordinary
Introduction of sulfur-control technology is same
as in Promoting Sustainability.
Clean technologies introduced sooner than in
other scenarios, including supercritical generation
and IGCC.
• Hydropower, nuclear, IGCC, and wind power
increases more rapidly than other scenarios.
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
42
THREE SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Ordinary Effort
Scenario 2: Promoting Sustainability
Scenario 3: Green Growth
Energy Sector Reform
Reform progress lags behind other sectors and
monopoly continues to exist in some areas.
Energy enterprises will be restructured and
monopoly is broken.
Reform proceeds rapidly and international
competitiveness of China’s energy enterprises is
improved.
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
43
THREE SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Ordinary Effort
Scenario 2: Promoting Sustainability
Scenario 3: Green Growth
Energy Conservation
Policies
Implementing measures to the Energy
Conservation Law are adopted but many
measures are not successfully achieved.
Implementing measures to the Energy
Conservation Law are successfully adopted and
improved upon.
Complete implementation of financial incentives
and an energy pricing system to promote energy
conservation.
Implementing measures to the Energy
Conservation Law are successfully adopted and
improved upon.
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
44
THREE SCENARIOSScenario 1: Ordinary Effort
Scenario 2: Promoting Sustainability
Scenario 3: Green Growth
Energy Efficiency Level
Technological development is hindered and the
operating efficiency of equipment does not reach
advanced international levels.
Energy efficiency of technology in all sectors
and industries on track to reach current
advanced international levels by 2030.
Same as Promoting Sustainability.
Energy Security
China primarily relies on domestic energy
resources.
China establishes a diversified energy import
system to utilize high quality foreign energy
resources.
China establishes a diversified energy import
system to utilize high quality foreign energy
resources.
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
45
THREE SCENARIOSScenario 1: Ordinary Effort
Scenario 2: Promoting Sustainability
Scenario 3: Green Growth
Energy Resources
Access to international oil resources over next 20
to 30 years is unrestricted.
Difference between domestic oil supply and
demand is met through oil imports.
Consumers find natural gas prices too high,
limiting exploration, development and network
construction. Imports of LNG and pipeline gas are
restricted.
Domestic output of natural gas reaches 80 bcm
and imported gas 40 bcm in 2020.
As in other scenarios, access to international oil
resources over next 20 to 30 years is
unrestricted.
As in other scenarios, difference between
domestic oil supply and demand is met through
oil imports.
Domestic development and infrastructure
construction of natural gas is successful and
creates a strong market for natural gas.
Domestic output of natural gas reaches 120 bcm
and imported gas 50 bcm in 2020.
As in other scenarios, access to international oil
resources over next 20 to 30 years is
unrestricted.
As in other scenarios, difference between
domestic oil supply and demand is met through
oil imports.
Natural gas pricing system is improved and
demand for gas grows quickly. Gas imports rise.
Domestic output of natural gas reaches 120 bcm
and imported gas 80 bcm in 2020.
bcm: billion cubic meters
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
46
THREE SCENARIOSScenario 1: Ordinary Effort
Scenario 2: Promoting Sustainability
Scenario 3: Green Growth
Environmental Protection
Policies
Existing environmental standards persist.
Air pollution controls in Acid Rain Control Regions
and key cities are implemented by 2005, with SO2
emission standards achieved by 2010.
Existing environmental standards persist
Air pollution controls in Acid Rain Control
Regions and key cities are implemented by
2005; SO2 emission standards are met by 2010;
all standards are met by 2020.
PM10 and PM2.5 are key focus of control policies.
Air quality of big cities is improved by increasing
supply of gas fuels.
Emissions standards in large cities are tightened.
Stricter NOx emission standards are enforced.
Coal substitution proceeds in large and some
medium cities.
More stringent legal system is put in place to
enforce environmental regulations.
Stricter SO2 emission standards for power plants
encourage adoption of desulfurization technology.
Public Awareness of
Energy and Environmental
Moderate Moderate Good
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
47
RESULTS OF THE SCENARIOS
Die Energieträgerstruktur unterscheidet sich vor allem hinsichtlich des Anteils von Kohle und Erdgas.
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
48
RESULTS OF THE SCENARIOS
Einkommenselastizitäten der Energienachfrage liegen grob im Bereich der Werte der 1980er und 1990er Jahre. Im Szenarium „ordinary Effort“ sid die Elastizität gegenüber den historischen Werten höher, im „Green Growth“ Szenarium niedriger.
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
49
RESULTS OF THE SCENARIOS
Die Energieintensität [in MJ / yuan1998] ist heute sehr hoch, aber sie sinkt in allen drei Szenarien und sind im Jahr 2020 zwischen 38% und 15% des 1998er Werts.
Quelle: Energy Research Institute (ERI)
50
erfolgreiche Beispiele
1. passive Wohnhöhle in Yanan.
2. Ökohaus in Land in Yongle,Yuanlan
3. Bio-Methanol und Erdgas werden als Ersatz von Benzin in den meisten chinesischen Städten eingesetzt.
4. Ab 1.3.2005 trat China Energy Label in Kraft.
51
Literatur
Evaluation of China’s Energy strategy Options China’s Sustainable energy Future Trends in Energy Efficiency investments in China and the US Energy efficiency in China Einpaar Chinesische Energiezeitschriften
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/China http://www.lib.whu.edu.cn/slgc/ http://www.china-botschaft.de http://www.umweltjournal.de