1

Excerpts from 2010 Air Excerpts from 2010 Air Force “Technology Force “Technology Horizons” ReportHorizons” Report

Full Report is Located in the Public Domain at:

http://www.airforce-magazine.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/TheDocumentFile/Strategy%20and%20Concepts/TechnologyHorizonsVol1_2010.pdf

Prepared by Andy Berryann for the ETC at Nashville, TN

July 27, 2010

2

Executive SummaryFrom its inception, the Air Force has undertaken a major effort roughly once every decade toarticulate a vision for the science and technology (S&T) advancements that it should undertaketo achieve over the following decade to enable the capabilities that it will need to prevail. Sixsuch S&T visions have been developed, beginning with “Toward New Horizons” in 1945 led byTheodore von Kármán for Gen Hap Arnold, through “New World Vistas” conducted in 1995.

Since completion of the latter, 15 years have passed without an updated Air Force S&T vision.“Technology Horizons” represents the next in this succession of major vision efforts conductedat the Headquarters Air Force level. In view of the far-reaching strategic changes, rapid globaltechnological advances, and growing resource constraints over the next decade, this is anoverdue effort that can help guide S&T investments to maximize their impact for maintainingAir Force technological superiority over potential adversaries.

What is “Technology Horizons”?“Technology Horizons” is neither a prediction of the future nor a forecast of a set of likelyfuture scenarios. It is a rational assessment of what is credibly achievable from a technicalperspective to give the Air Force capabilities that are suited for the strategic, technology, andbudget environments of 2010-2030. It is visionary, but its view is informed by the strategiccontext in which these technology-derived capabilities will be used. It is an articulation of the“art of the possible”, but is grounded in the knowledge that merely being possible is only aprerequisite to being practically useful. It considers the spectrum of technical possibilities, butacknowledges that budget constraints will limit the set of these that can be pursued.

It recognizes that increasingly more of the science and technology that provides the basis forfuture Air Force capabilities is available worldwide to be translated into potential adversarycapabilities. It thus has sought to envision not only U.S. Joint and allied opportunities for usingtechnologies, but also ways that adversary capabilities could be derived from them usingentirely different concepts of operations or on the basis of entirely different warfightingconstructs. It acknowledges that capabilities enabled by new technologies and associatedoperating concepts often introduce new vulnerabilities not envisioned in the original capability.It thus has also considered potential vulnerabilities and cross-domain interdependences thatmay be created by second- and third-order effects of these technology-derived capabilities.

Technology Horizons Report: What is it?

3

The set of 30 potential capability areas (PCAs) are within reach as new Air Force capabilities by the 2030 target date of “Technology Horizons”, and are matched to key needs of the strategic environment of this period. Among these PCAs, the following 12 are identified below as being of highest priority:

PCA1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber SystemsPCA2: Automated Cyber Vulnerability AssessmentsPCA4: Augmentation of Human PerformancePCA6: Adaptive Flexibly-Autonomous SystemsPCA8: Dominant Spectrum Warfare OperationsPCA9: PNT in GPS-Denied EnvironmentsPCA12: Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR SensorsPCA15: Fractionated Survivable Remote-Piloted SystemsPCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine EnginesPCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/DefensePCA27: Rapidly Composable Small SatellitesPCA30: Persistent Space Situational Awareness

Key Potential Capability Areas

4

Example of Key Technology Areas Supporting Potential Capability Areas

PCA18: Fuel-Efficient Hybrid Wing-Body AircraftAdvanced aerodynamic configurationsAerodynamic test and evaluationDirected energy effectsDirected energy protectionLightweight multi-functional structuresAdvanced composite fabricationStructural modeling and simulationMulti-scale simulation technologiesCoupled multi-physics simulationsValidation support to simulationsAutonomous systemsEmbedded diagnosticsHealth monitoring and prognosisAdvanced RF aperturesIR signature suppressionHigh-temperature materialsLightweight materialsAdvanced compositesComposites sustainmentMetamaterialsSelf-healing materialsNanomaterialsMaterial-specific manufacturingSystem-level thermal management M&SThermal management componentsThree-stream engine architectures

5

Grand Challenges

1. Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Networks (by 2015)

2. Trusted Highly-Autonomous Decision-Making Systems (by 2017)

3. Fractionated, Composable, Survivable, Autonomous Systems (by 2018)

4. Hyper-Precision Aerial Delivery in Difficult Environments (by 2018)

6

The strategic context and enduring realities identified in “Technology Horizons” lead to a set of 12 “Overarching Themes” to vector S&T in directions that can maximize capability superiority. These shifts in research emphases should be applied judiciously to guide each research area.

1. From … Platforms To … Capabilities2. From … Manned To … Remote-piloted3. From … Fixed To … Agile4. From … Control To … Autonomy5. From … Integrated To … Fractionated6. From … Preplanned To … Composable7. From … Single-domain To … Cross-domain8. From … Permissive To … Contested9. From … Sensor To … Information10. From … Operations To … Dissuasion/Deterrence11. From … Cyber defense To … Cyber resilience12. From … Long system life To … Expendable

Overarching Themes for Air Force S&T

7

“Technology Horizons” makes five major Recommendations for guiding Air Force S&T efforts tomeet the strategic, technology, and budget challenges over the next decade and beyond:

Recommendation #1: Communicate Results from “Technology Horizons”

Recommendation #2: Assess Alignment of S&T Portfolio with “Technology Horizons”

Recommendation #3: Adjust S&T Portfolio Balance as Needed

Recommendation #4: Initiate Focused Research on “Grand Challenge” Problems

Recommendation #5: Improve Aspects of Air Force S&T Management Process

Recommendations