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1. Focus: weathering the storm…

1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

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Page 1: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

1. Focus: weathering the storm…

4

Page 2: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

Banpu has been through difficult times before…

LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE

1980s

• Banpu has three decades of experience and has faced difficult macroeconomic conditions many times before

• Coal Thailand

SET li ti

BANPU EXTERNAL

1 Mt

COAL SALES

1990s

conditions many times before

• Despite many short term setbacks, over the long term

• SET listing • Low coal prices

• Low coal prices• Mae Moh contract

I d i

1 Mt

1990s Banpu has delivered strong shareholder returns

• Banpu has focused on growth

• Asian economic crisis !

• Indonesia

• Power business

• Indocoal acquisition

4 Mt

2000s• Banpu has focused on growth

– but also on sustainability

• Emphasis on pro-active risk

Indocoal acquisition

• Non-core divestment

• China coal

• Coal price growth

• Lehman crisis !20 Mt

2010s

Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency planning, strategic flexibility

• Australia coal

• Mongolia coal• European debt

crisis !44 Mt

5

44 Mt

Page 3: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

Checklist for weathering the current ‘storm’

FUNDAMENTALS ACTION PLAN 2012-13

Domestic coal sales less impacted by benchmark prices Cut costs and reduce strip

ratios in Indonesia 2012-13

Export sales mainly to strong credit large corporate buyers

Productivity improvements in Indonesia and Australia

Power earnings a hedge against lower coal prices

Reduce and delay capexplans: target 30% reduction 2011-15

Geographic diversity of assets mitigates regulatory risks and gives strategic flexibility

Limited impact to medium term output targets

Financial discipline and risk management systems

Maintain strong EBITDA to net debt ratio and dividend yield

6

Page 4: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

Structure of adjusted operating earnings*

Bt 13.8 bn*

Bt 9.3 bnExport coalAustralia and Indonesia

• Coal exports mainly to large creditworthy customers in NE Asia

• Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices

Bt 1.9 bnDomestic coal • Mainly long term contracts with large power companies

Bt 2.5 bn

Australia, Indonesia, China

PowerBLCP and China power

power companies

• Note: Hongsa earnings will grow as BLCP earnings decline

H1 2012

7* Figures shown above are based on EBITDA results multiplied by Banpu’s percentage ownership in each business (for example, taking only 65% of ITM’s EBITDA)

Page 5: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

Banpu: high quality coal portfolio*

Calorific value (adb, Kcal/kg)

7 1007 0007 200 7 000 7 250

Indonesia peer 1

Indonesia peer 2

Indonesia peer 3

Indonesia peer 4

Indonesia peer 5

Indonesia peer 6

Indonesia peer 7

Australia peer 1

Australia peer 2

Avg Chinese peers

7,1007,0007,200

5,700 5,4175,900

5,230

7,0006,400

7,2506,850

5,0005,4005,300 5,200

4,3095,500 5,215 5,300 5,400

6,950 6,7006,500

5,850

ITM Centennial

Ash (adb, %)

peer 1 peer 2 peer 3 peer 4 peer 5 peer 6 peer 7 peer 1 peer 2 peers

27.0

18 0 19 0

Indonesia peer 1

Indonesia peer 2

Indonesia peer 3

Indonesia peer 4

Indonesia peer 5

Indonesia peer 6

Indonesia peer 7

Australia peer 1

Australia peer 2

Avg Chinese peers

ITM Centennial

6.012.0

2.0 2.5 5.1

18.0

8.0 9.0 10.0

19.0

4.09.0

2.5 1.0 2.0 4.5 4.0 5.0 4.0 6.5 8.510.09.0

Sulphur (adb, %)

2.00.6

1.40.1 0.1

1.0

2.5

0.7 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.0

* Peer figures are from company sources

Indonesia peer 1

Indonesia peer 2

Indonesia peer 3

Indonesia peer 4

Indonesia peer 5

Indonesia peer 6

Indonesia peer 7

Australia peer 1

Australia peer 2

Avg Chinese peers

ITM Centennial

0.1 0.10.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5

8

Page 6: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

Banpu’s main customers

C t

ITM: TOP 5 CUSTOMERS

Customer

Country China Indonesia Taiwan Italy Japan

Credit rating BB+ (Fitch) na BBB+ (S&P) Baa1 (Moody’s) / A- (Fitch) / BBB+ (S&P) A3 (Moody’s)/ A (S&P)

Business relationship (years) 6 6 7 6 14

Current contract duration Evergreen Evergreen Evergreen End Dec’ 12 End Dec’14

Customer Pen

CENTENNIAL: TOP 5 CUSTOMERS

Customer Pen Country Australia Australia Taiwan Taiwan Japan

Credit rating AA- (Fitch) / AA- (S&P) na A+ (S&P) na A1 (Moody’s) / A+ (S&P)

Business relationship (years) +20 +20 +10 3 3p (y )

Current contract duration End Jun 22 End Jun 22 End Dec 19 End Jan 13 End Mar 13

9

Page 7: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

Focus: reducing costs in Indonesia in 2012

$/t

INDICATIVE FOB CASH PRODUCTION COSTS PER TONNE

Target reduction

50.0

60.0

Logistics and overheads

Reduce management overheads

-$3/t

40.0Other pit-operation activities

W t i i t

Reduce management overheads

Processing, haulage and port

20.0

30.0Overburden removal costs

Cut Indominco SR:13.2 to 12.9 (and potentially to 12 6)

Waste mining cost

10.0

(and potentially to 12.6)

Cut Trubaindo SR: 13.5 to 12.5

0.02012 original plan 2012 revised plan

ROM OUTPUT: 27.0 Mt 27.0 Mt

10ILLUSTRATIVE AND INDICATIVE ONLY

Page 8: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

Focus: Centennial outlook

KEY STRENGTHS DOMESTIC CONTRACT OUTLOOK

• Full production rates expected at three main longwall operations in 2H12

• Increased productivity should enable 20

MtHigh percentage of domestic contracts• Increased productivity should enable

10-15% unit operating cost reductions in 2H12 compared to 2Q12

14

16

18domestic contracts next two years

• Indexed-linked domestic contracts with expiring contracts renewable at long-term export parity pricing 8

10

12

• Export business with long standing customers to premium markets

• Flexibility to build both domestic and 0

2

4

6

Flexibility to build both domestic and export business in accordance with market opportunities

011A 12F 13F 14F 15F

Domestic Domestic potential Export

11

Page 9: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

Focus: Hongsa

PROJECT SUMMARY PROJECT VALUE DEVELOPMENT CURVE

• Project progress at end 2Q is slightly ahead of schedule

• COD f fi t it t t d f40%

60%

80%

100%

Main road completion

COD Unit 1

COD Unit 3

COD Unit 2

RU

CTI

ON

PLA

N

NP

V

90%

• COD of first unit targeted for June 2015

• Hongsa project is targeted to % Project NPV*

0%

20%

Dec

10

Apr

11A

ug11

Dec

11A

pr12

Aug

12D

ec12

Apr

13A

ug13

Dec

13A

pr14

Aug

14

Dec

14A

pr15

Aug

15D

ec15

CO

NS

TR

40-60%

Hongsa project is targeted to contribute around Bt 3 – 6 bnper annum to Banpu EBITDA (from 40% shares of holding)

% Project NPV

100%

from 2016

• Growing contribution from Hongsa will gradually offset 10 ‐ 20%

40 ‐ 60%

20 ‐ 30%30 ‐ 40%

Hongsa will gradually offset the decline in earnings from BLCP over the long term

Commercial Operation

CommissioningFinancingSecured 

Site Identification & Studies

PFS completed

FS completed Construction

*Source: AWR Lloyd

12

Source: AWR Lloyd

Page 10: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

Capex plan changes 2011-2015

1800

$Millionc.30% reduction1,748

3781600

1800

POWER

1,748

4001200

1400

MONGOLIA

1,248

200

378

800

1000 Maintain Hongsa equity injection and China power expansions as planned

Deferred development of Tsant Uul and

625

425400

600AUSTRALIA Altai Nuur; focus on exploration

Capex adjustment – mainly postponement to ramp-up of Newstan

345245

0

200 INDONESIA

to ramp up of Newstan

Postponement of some developments BoCT urgent improvement only

13

0Original plan Revised plan

DISCLAIMER: ALL CAPEX FIGURES ARE INDICATIVE ONLY AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Page 11: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

Financial discipline and risk management

Example 1: Gearing management Example 2: Dividend payments

2.1X2x

3xNet debt / adjusted EBITDA*

Bt 21.0Bt 21.0

Dividend per share

1.5X

1x

2xBt 16.0

Bt 12.0Bt 8.5

201220112010 20112010200920082007

• Banpu has a track record of strong and growing dividend payments

• Banpu maintains conservative Net debt/EBITDA ratio as contingency for volatile coal prices and macro-economic

diti ( d f thconditions (and for new growth opportunities)

14* Adjusted EBITDA: includes interest in JVs; excludes net gains from disposal from investments in 2010 and 2011

Page 12: 1. Focus: weathering the storm… - Banpu · Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency ... 5,850 ITM Centennial Ash (adb, %) peer 6 peer 1 ... Logistics and overheads Reduce

Hongsa: target revenue and EBITDA structure

6%Viable O&M

13 yrs 25 yrsREVENUE

STRUCTURE

I di ti t t d

Energy Payment

38%Fuel payment

O&M Indicative targeted revenue range (nominal)

Indicative targeted EBITDA range (nominal)

Availability Payment 56%

NOTE: FIGURES SHOWN ARE ON 100% BASIS

66ILLUSTRATIVE & INDICATIVE ONLY