Upload
patricia-marsh
View
216
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1global investment management
Market update & Harmony funds review
Glyn Owen
June 2012
2 global investment management
1. Market environment
3 global investment management
This century has been bad for equity investing……
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
Per
form
ance
reb
ased
to
100
MSCI Daily TR Net World USD
10.1%
4 global investment management
……but not for government bonds
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
Yie
ld
US Generic Govt 10 Year Yield
133.3%
5 global investment management
Asset class returns YTD 2012
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
5.5%
3.6%3.1%
1.3%0.5% 0.2%
-0.2%
-8.0%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%H
igh
yie
ld
Go
ld
Inve
stm
ent g
rade
fixed
inco
me
Glo
bal d
evel
oped
mar
ket e
qui
ties
Glo
bal G
over
nmen
tbo
nd
s
Cas
h
Glo
bal e
mer
ging
mar
ket e
qui
ties
Co
mm
odi
ties
USD
6 global investment management
MSCI World since January 2008
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12
Per
form
ance
reb
ased
to
100
MSCI Daily TR Net World USD
7 global investment management
10 year government bond yield since January 2008
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
UK Govt Bonds 10 Year Note Gen German Government Bonds 10 Yr US Generic Govt 10 Year Yield
Yie
ld
8 global investment management
Map of the markets over the past three months
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
US UK Europe ex UK JapanPacific ex
JapanEmerging Markets
Developed World Index
Energy -14.9% -14.6% -17.0% -19.8% -21.5% -25.9% -15.0%Materials -9.3% -22.0% -11.2% -18.6% -22.5% -22.0% -14.4%Industrials -6.1% -4.2% -12.7% -15.3% -15.8% -16.3% -9.0%Consumer Discretionary -1.4% -2.2% -9.4% -13.6% -12.0% -12.6% -5.1%Financials -5.0% -14.1% -22.1% -18.3% -12.6% -16.3% -10.4%IT -5.1% -13.3% -11.7% -16.7% -16.8% -9.5% -6.6%Telecoms 7.5% 0.9% -17.2% -6.4% -2.9% -10.3% -2.3%Health Care 0.1% -1.7% -0.1% -8.4% 0.0% -6.2% -0.6%Consumer Staples 1.2% -2.5% 0.6% -0.3% -11.1% -7.4% 0.4%Utilities 2.8% 4.1% -19.0% -14.1% -6.5% -16.4% -4.2%
Country / Region (Local) -3.7% -8.0% -9.0% -13.4% -6.3% -8.5% -6.4%Country / Region (USD Terms) -3.7% -11.4% -16.0% -10.6% -13.0% -15.1% -8.3%
Outperformed MSCI World by more than 1 standard deviationOutperformed MSCI World
Underperformed MSCI WorldUnderperformed MSCI World by more than 1 standard deviation
9 global investment management
Asset class returns 2012 YTD
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
Asset class / region Index Currency Local currency USD
Equities
United States S&P 500 NR USD 5.3% 5.3%
United Kingdom FTSE All Share TR GBP -0.2% -0.7%
Continental Europe MSCI Europe ex UK NR EUR -1.4% -5.1%
Japan Topix TR JPY -0.3% -3.0%
Global MSCI World NR USD 2.4% 1.3%
Global emerging markets MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) NR USD 1.7% -0.2%
Performance to 6 June 2012
10 global investment management
Asset class returns 2012 YTD
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
Asset class / region Index Currency Local currency USD
Bonds
Government Bonds
US Treasuries JP Morgan United States GBI TR USD 1.7% 1.7%
US Treasuries (inflation protected) Barclays Capital U.S. Govt Inflation Linked TR USD 4.8% 4.8%
UK Gilts JP Morgan United Kingdom GBI TR (daily) GBP 2.6% 2.1%
Euro Government Bonds Citigroup EMU GBI TR EUR 4.9% 1.0%
Global Government Bonds JP Morgan Global GBI TR USD 1.6% 0.5%
Corporate Credit
US Corporate (investment grade) Barclays Capital U.S. Corp Investment Grade TR USD 3.6% 3.6%
US High Yield Barclays Capital U.S. High Yield 2% Issuer Cap TR USD 4.5% 4.5%
Other
Global Bonds Citigroup WorldBIG TR USD USD 3.1% 5.9%
Global Convertible Bonds UBS Global Convertible Bond USD USD 3.0% 3.0%
Global Emerging Market Bonds JP Morgan EMBI+ USD 1.5% 6.5%
Performance to 6 June 2012
11 global investment management
Asset class returns 2012 YTD
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
Asset class / region Index Currency Local currency USD
Property
US Property Securities MSCI US REIT NR USD 9.5% 9.5%
UK Property Securities FTSE EPRA/NAREIT United Kingdom TR GBP 10.3% 9.7%
Europe ex UK Property Securities FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Europe ex UK TR EUR 8.0% 4.0%
Asia Property Securities FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Asia TR USD 15.0% 10.8%
Global Property Securities FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed TR USD 9.7% 9.7%
Commodities & Alternatives
Commodities RICI TR USD -8.0% -8.0%
Agricultural Commodities RICI Agriculture TR USD -8.7% -8.7%
Oil ICE Crude Oil CR USD -8.4% -8.4%
Gold Gold Index USD 6.8% 6.8%
Performance to 6 June 2012
12 global investment management
10 year government bond spreads vs. Germany
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12
Sp
read
(bas
is p
oin
ts)
Italy Spain France
13 global investment management
German vs. Spanish 10 yr government bond yields
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
January 2000 to date
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
Yie
ld (%
)
German government 10 year Spanish government 10 year
14 global investment management
Performance of Chinese stock market vs. S&P500
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12
Per
form
ance
reb
ased
to
100
S&P 500 Index Shanghai Composite
15 global investment management
Performance of Gold, Copper and Oil
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12
Per
form
ance
reb
ased
to
100
Gold spot ($/OZ) LME copper spot ($) WTI Cushing crude oil spot ($)
16 global investment management
Currencies vs. USD
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12
US
D p
er G
BP
, US
D p
er E
UR
, U
SD
per
Yen
EUR GBP JPY
17 global investment management
2. Market outlook
18 global investment management
Three critical issues
• Sustainability of growth in the US
• Structural slowdown in China – or hard landing?
• European imbalances
19 global investment management
US economic momentum is reasonable
US labour market
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan 80 Jan 83 Jan 86 Jan 89 Jan 92 Jan 95 Jan 98 Jan 01 Jan 04 Jan 07 Jan 10
Num
ber o
f cla
ims
(tho
usan
ds)
US Initial Jobless Claims SA
20 global investment management
US construction: the only way is up?
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
Mar 52 Mar 56 Mar 60 Mar 64 Mar 68 Mar 72 Mar 76 Mar 80 Mar 84 Mar 88 Mar 92 Mar 96 Mar 00 Mar 04 Mar 08 Mar 12
%
US Residential Investment % of GDP
4
504
1004
1504
2004
2504
3004
Jan 59 Jan 63 Jan 67 Jan 71 Jan 75 Jan 79 Jan 83 Jan 87 Jan 91 Jan 95 Jan 99 Jan 03 Jan 07 Jan 11
Vo
lum
e (t
ho
usan
ds)
US New Privately Owned Housing Starts
21 global investment management
US consumer confidence
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jul 00 Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11
Ind
ex le
vel
US consumer confidence
22 global investment management
One issue that will need to be tackled after November
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
US budget deficits
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12
% G
DP
US budget deficits
23 global investment management
China is landing
Source: SocGen April 2012
GDP and industrial production
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Chinese GDP (LHS)
Chinese IP (RHS)
24 global investment management
Export sector flatlining
Source: Bloomberg, April 2012
Chinese global exports (Real $)
Jan
00
Dec
00
Dec
01
Dec
02
Dec
03
Dec
04
Nov
05
Nov
06
Nov
07
Nov
08
Nov
09
Nov
10
Oct
11
Oct
12
Oct
13
70
700
25 global investment management
Imports slowing
Source: SocGen April 2012
Chinese global imports (Real $)
26 global investment management
Credit tighter than during Lehmans
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
Chinese money supply
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Dec 94 Dec 96 Dec 98 Dec 00 Dec 02 Dec 04 Dec 06 Dec 08 Dec 10 Dec 12
Mo
ney
sup
ply
gro
wth
%
M1 YoY M2 YoY
27 global investment management
Property bubble bursting?
Source: Deutsche Bank, Soufun,.com, June 2012
Chinese property prices are falling (and few property downturns have ended well)
28 global investment management
Monetary easing in emerging markets
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Oct 07 Apr 08 Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12
China RRR China 1 Year Best Lending Rate Brazil Selic Target Rate Reserve Bank of India Reverse REPO Yield
29 global investment management
Europe’s LTRO bounce is already slipping back
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index (EU)
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12
Z-s
core
Positive surprises
30 global investment management
The European crisis is not simply debt
Source: IMF, 2012 estimates
Budget deficit to GDP
Current account balance
-2.2%
-2.4%
5.2%
-0.8%
-1.9%
-4.6%
-1.7%
-8.0%
1.0%
-8.5%
-4.2%
-4.5%
-2.1%
-6.0%
-7.4%
-7.2%
31 global investment management
Unit labour costs since the launch of the euro
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Dec 99
Dec 00
Dec 01
Dec 02
Dec 03
Dec 04
Dec 05
Dec 06
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Ind
ex le
vel r
ebas
ed to
100
Spain
Italy
Greece
Portugal
France
Ireland
Germany
32 global investment management
Currencies vs. the Deutschemark
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20073 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
ITL p
er DE
M
GR
D, E
SP
, PT
E p
er D
EM
Spanish peseta Greek drachma Italian lira
33 global investment management
German labour reform accelerated growth – can Italy
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Dec 94 Dec 96 Dec 98 Dec 00 Dec 02 Dec 04 Dec 06 Dec 08 Dec 10
Ind
ustr
ial P
rodu
ctio
n (r
ebas
ed to
100
Jan
uary
199
5)
US Germany Italy
34 global investment management
Structural reforms
35 global investment management
The European stress / intervention cycle
• Don’t underestimate the political will to preserve the Eurozone
• Inflate, stagnate or default
• Austerity / growth
• European bail out of banks
• Issue of Eurobonds
• ECB – LTRO / SMP / rate cut
• Fiscal union
36 global investment management
Equity market valuations
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
Price/ Consensus earnings estimates
Dividend yield10-year Government
bond yields
United States 12.6 2.3% 1.7%
Eurozone 8.6 5.7% 1.3%
United Kingdom 9.6 4.5% 1.7%
Germany 9.2 4.5% 1.3%
Japan 12.7 2.5% 0.8%
Hong Kong 9.5 4.1% 1.0%
Australia 12.0 5.2% 3.0%
37 global investment management
MSCI World P/E ratio since 1995
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
P/E
ratio
MSCI World
38 global investment management
MSCI World price to book 1995
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
P/B
ratio
MSCI World
39 global investment management
Tail wind of EM re-valuation now behind us
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
MSCI World PB vs. MSCI GEM PB
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
P/B
ratio
MSCI World MSCI Emerging Markets
40 global investment management
Shiller PEs tell a similar story
Trend PEs by region
Source: Citi, January 2012
41 global investment management
High Yield Bond Spreads January 2008 to today
Source: Bloomberg, June 2012
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12
Ave
rag
e O
AS
Barclays US Corporate High Yield Average OAS
42 global investment management
Investment implications
• Interest rates to stay low for years
• US:• fiscal consolidation post election• growth risk in 2013
•China:•structural slowdown underway•emerging markets generally slowing•needs internal demand to pick up•room for monetary loosening
• Europe:• stress / intervention cycle to continue• political will to preserve euro muddle
through• but risks are high
43 global investment management
Summary
•‘New normal’ is now the consensus
• Global rebalancing set to continue for years
• We are five years into the deleveraging / rebalancing process
• Policy risks are high
• Likelihood of further monetary loosening
• The crisis has presented an extraordinary valuation opportunity
• After a decade of disappointments, equities will now surpass expectations
44 global investment management
Predictions for end 2012
• Low growth environment- Global GDP growth 2-3%- Subdued inflation
• Low return expectations- cash close to zero- safe haven bonds 1-2%- credit & high yield 3-6%- equities 7-9%
• Valuation opportunity tactically
• Overall single digit returns expected
45 global investment management
3. Harmony funds
46 global investment management
Introduction
• Risk profiled core solutions: Balanced and Growth
• Multi-asset, multi-manager, multi-currency
• Diversified between local and global investments, asset class, currency, manager and style
• Dynamic tactical asset allocation
• Available in five currency / regional bases: USD, GBP, EUR, AUD and Asian
• The Harmony range uses no derivatives, structured products or CDOs
• Managed by Momentum Global Investment Management in London
47 global investment management
Harmony Balanced Fund strategic allocation
June 2012
Global Equity10%
Local Equity30%
Global Bonds10%
Local Government Debt30%
Global Property10%
Cash10%
48 global investment management
Harmony Growth Fund strategic allocation
June 2012
Global Equity15%
Local Equity50%
Global Bonds
5%
Local Government Debt15%
Global Property10%
Cash5%
49 global investment management
Summary performance May 2012
May 2012..Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
3 months Year to dateBenchmark year
to datePeer rank year to
date
Harmony Asian Balanced -6.1% 1.9% 1.6% 7/17
Harmony Asian Growth -8.1% 2.0% 1.8% 7/17
Harmony AUD Growth 0.7% 4.3% 5.2% 3/16
Harmony Euro Balanced -2.0% 3.4% 3.7% 8/10
Harmony Sterling Balanced -2.8% 0.4% 1.8% 20/28
Harmony Sterling Growth -5.2% -0.8% 1.1% 22/25
Harmony US Dollar Balanced -3.6% 1.5% 3.3% 10/18
Harmony US Dollar Growth -4.5% 1.9% 3.9% 6/18
50 global investment management
Harmony US Dollar Balanced asset allocation
May 2012
Equity26.0% Equity
22.0%
Equity31.0%
Equity33.1%
Equity40.3%
Equity41.3%
Equity40.4%
Equity39.2%
Equity40.0%
Fixed Income31.0% Fixed Income
34.0%
Fixed Income48.0% Fixed Income
40.0%
Fixed Income34.6%
Fixed Income31.3% Fixed Income
29.3%
Fixed Income34.7%
Fixed Income40.0%
Alt. Investments24.0%
Alt. Investments25.0%
Alt. Investments6.0%
Alt. Investments3.9%
Alt. Investments2.5%
Property11.0%
Property4.0%
Property11.0%
Property9.5%
Property9.6%
Property10.8%
Property9.5%
Property9.8%
Property10.0%
Cash8.0%
Cash15.0%
Cash4.0%
Cash13.5%
Cash13.0% Cash
16.6% Cash20.8%
Cash16.3%
Cash10.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 May-12 Benchmark
51 global investment management
Harmony US Dollar Balanced currency allocation
May 2012
USD79.0%
USD92.0%
USD71.0%
USD78.9%
USD70.5%
USD77.8%
USD82.3%
USD81.9%
USD82.8%
EUR7.0%
EUR1.0%
EUR9.0%
EUR7.2%
EUR9.1%
EUR7.1%
EUR5.6%
EUR6.0%
EUR6.3%
GBP 1.0%
GBP 4.0%
GBP 3.0%
GBP 3.0%
GBP 5.4%
GBP 3.2%GBP 2.4% GBP 2.2%
GBP 3.1%JPY 5.0%
JPY 7.0%
JPY 4.4%
JPY 4.4%JPY 2.3%
JPY 1.8% JPY 1.7%JPY 3.2%
Other 8.0%Other 3.0%
Other 10.0%Other 6.4%
Other 10.6% Other 9.6% Other 7.9% Other 8.2%Other 4.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 May-12 Benchmark
52 global investment management
Harmony US Dollar Balanced
May 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. . *30/06/2005 to 30/12/2005
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
3 months YTD 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005*
Har
mo
ny
fun
d p
erce
ntag
e ra
nk
3 months YTD 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005*
Harmony US Dollar Balanced Peer Rank 9/18 10/18 7/18 8/16 4/15 8/12 3/11 2/11 4/11
Fund Performance -3.6% 1.5% -1.5% 5.6% 20.0% -27.2% 6.7% 13.2% 4.7%
Peer Max 0.7% 5.0% 1.6% 12.2% 25.2% -6.7% 7.8% 13.5% 14.2%
Peer Min -10.9% -7.0% -18.8% -2.6% -0.7% -36.2% 2.1% 5.0% 0.8%
Peer Median -3.7% 1.5% -3.9% 5.5% 16.1% -23.4% 5.4% 9.2% 3.4%
53 global investment management
Harmony US Dollar Balanced manager performance
May 2012
Performance in USD Weight 3 months 6 months 12 months
Artisan Global Value 0.9% -4.9% 2.6% -4.1%
Momentum IF Global Equity 7.5% -9.6% -0.4% -12.9%
Morgan Stanley Global Brands 1.9% -5.6% 4.0% -2.2%
BlackRock US Index 4.1% -3.6% 6.1% -0.8%
Yacktman US Equity 9.5% -3.0% 3.4% -1.5%
Hotchkis & Wiley US Value 5.0% -7.6% 10.2% -5.9%
Wells Fargo US All Cap Growth 9.2% -4.5% 7.1% 3.9%
Momentum IF Global Emerging Markets 1.3% -18.2% -9.0% -27.8%
Equity 39.2%
Old Mutual Dublin Global Bond 10.2% 0.1% 2.1% 5.1%
RWC Global Convertibles 8.2% -4.3% 2.7% -5.1%
BlackRock US Dollar High Yield Bond 5.3% -0.7% 8.0% 2.2%
BlackRock US Corporate Bond Index 6.0% 1.0% 5.3% 6.7%
iShares USD Treasury Bond 1-3 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
iShares USD Treasury Bond 7-10 3.0% 3.6% 5.3% 14.8%
Fixed Income 34.7%
Cohen & Steers Global Real Estate 9.8% -4.4% 6.4% -11.2%
Property 9.8%
54 global investment management
Harmony US Dollar Growth asset allocation
May 2012
Equity49.0%
Equity35.0%
Equity51.0%
Equity53.3% Equity
47.5%
Equity65.3%
Equity68.7% Equity
64.6%Equity65.0%
Fixed Income15.0%
Fixed Income28.0%
Fixed Income27.0%
Fixed Income25.2%
Fixed Income13.0%
Fixed Income17.4%
Fixed Income16.9% Fixed Income
20.6%Fixed Income
20.0%
Alt. Investments25.0% Alt. Investments
24.0%
Alt. Investments7.0%
Alt. Investments7.2%
Alt. Investments3.2%
Property9.0%
Property4.0%
Property13.0%
Property9.9%
Property5.9%
Property10.3%
Property9.9%
Property9.7%
Property10.0%
Cash2.0%
Cash9.0%
Cash2.0% Cash
4.4%
Cash30.4%
Cash7.0%
Cash4.5%
Cash5.1%
Cash5.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 May-12 Benchmark
55 global investment management
Harmony US Dollar Growth currency allocation
May 2012
USD80.0%
USD88.0%
USD69.0% USD
64.2%
USD76.2%
USD68.6%
USD72.0%
USD81.7% USD
76.8%
EUR 10.0%
EUR 1.0%
EUR 9.0%
EUR 10.6%
EUR 7.1%
EUR 9.6%
EUR 9.3%
EUR 5.6%
EUR 8.9%
GBP 2.0%GBP 7.0%
GBP 5.0%GBP 6.5%
GBP 4.4%
GBP 4.8%
GBP 4.7%
GBP 2.6% GBP 4.4%
JPY 4.0%
JPY 5.0%JPY 5.1%
JPY 3.2%
JPY 3.4%
JPY 3.3%
JPY 1.9%JPY 4.6%
Other 4.0% Other 4.0%
Other 12.0% Other 13.7%Other 9.1%
Other 13.6%Other 10.7%
Other 8.2%Other 5.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 May-12 Benchmark
56 global investment management
Harmony US Dollar Growth
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
3 months YTD 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005*
Har
mo
ny
fun
d p
erce
ntag
e ra
nk
3 months YTD 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005*
Harmony US Dollar Growth Peer Rank 10/18 6/18 3/18 6/16 3/15 10/12 3/11 1/11 4/11
Fund Performance -4.5% 1.9% -0.1% 7.8% 23.0% -30.1% 6.5% 15.2% 6.3%
Peer Max 0.7% 5.0% 1.6% 12.2% 25.2% -6.7% 7.8% 15.2% 14.2%
Peer Min -10.9% -7.0% -18.8% -2.6% -0.7% -36.2% 2.1% 5.0% 0.8%
Peer Median -4.2% 1.6% -3.9% 6.0% 16.1% -23.4% 5.4% 9.2% 3.4%
May 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. . *30/06/2005 to 30/12/2005
57 global investment management
Harmony US Dollar Growth manager performance
May 2012.
Performance in USD Weight 3 months 6 months 12 months
Artisan Global Value 5.5% -4.9% 2.6% -4.1%
Momentum IF Global Equity 6.1% -9.6% -0.4% -12.9%
Morgan Stanley Global Brands 3.3% -5.6% 4.0% -2.2%
BlackRock US Index 13.7% -3.6% 6.1% -0.8%
Yacktman US Equity 12.9% -3.0% 3.4% -1.5%
Hotchkis & Wiley US Value 9.2% -7.6% 10.2% -5.9%
Wells Fargo US All Cap Growth 12.3% -4.5% 7.1% 3.9%
Momentum IF Global Emerging Markets 1.7% -18.2% -9.0% -27.8%
Equity 64.6%
Old Mutual Dublin Global Bond 6.3% 0.1% 2.1% 5.1%
RWC Global Convertibles 4.8% -4.3% 2.7% -5.1%
BlackRock US Dollar High Yield Bond 3.2% -0.7% 8.0% 2.2%
BlackRock US Corporate Bond Index 3.2% 1.0% 5.3% 6.7%
iShares USD Treasury Bond 1-3 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
iShares USD Treasury Bond 7-10 2.1% 3.6% 5.3% 14.8%
Fixed Income 20.6%
Cohen & Steers Global Real Estate 9.7% -4.4% 6.4% -11.2%
Property 9.7%
58 global investment management
Harmony performance vs. cash, bonds and equities
Source: Bloomberg, May 2012. Past performance is not indicative of future returns..
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
Reb
ased
to
100
(O
cto
ber
199
7)
US Bonds
US Cash
US Equities
Growth
Balanced
59 global investment management
Disclaimer
Momentum Global Investment Management is the trading name for Momentum Global Investment Management Limited. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to
any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorised or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and
addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this document, and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local
legislation or regulation. The information is intended solely for use by our clients or prospective clients, and should not be reproduced or distributed except via original recipients
acting as professional intermediaries. This document is not for distribution in the United States.
Prospective investors should inform themselves and if need be take appropriate advice regarding applicable legal, taxation and exchange control regulations in countries of their
citizenship, residence or domicile which may be relevant to the acquisition, holding, transfer, redemption or disposal of any investments herein solicited.
Any opinions expressed herein are those at the date this material is issued. Data, models and other statistics are sourced from our own records, unless otherwise stated herein. We
believe that the information contained is from reliable sources, but we do not guarantee the relevance, accuracy or completeness thereof. Unless otherwise provided under UK law,
Momentum Global Investment Management does not accept liability for irrelevant, inaccurate or incomplete information contained, or for the correctness of opinions expressed.
We caution that the value of investments in discretionary accounts, and the income derived, may fluctuate and it is possible that an investor may incur losses, including a loss of the
principal invested. Past performance is not generally indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are
invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments.
Our investment mandates in alternative strategies and hedge funds permit us to invest in unregulated funds that may be highly volatile. Although alternative strategies funds will seek
to follow a wide diversification policy, these funds may be subject to sudden and/or large falls in value. The illiquid nature of the underlying funds is such that alternative strategies
funds deal infrequently and require longer notice periods for redemptions. These Investments are therefore not readily realisable. If an alternative strategies fund fails to perform, it
may not be possible to realise the investment without further loss in value. These unregulated funds may engage in the short selling of securities or may use a greater degree of
gearing than is permitted for regulated funds (including the ability to borrow for a leverage strategy). A relatively small price movement may result in a disproportionately large
movement in the investment value. The purpose of gearing is to achieve higher returns associated with larger investment exposures, but has concomitant exposure to loss if positive
performance is not achieved. Reliable information about the value of an investment in an alternative strategies fund may not be available (other than at the fund’s infrequent valuation
points).
Under our multi-management arrangements, we selectively appoint underlying sub-investment managers and funds to actively manage underlying asset holdings in the pursuit of
achieving mandated performance objectives. Annual investment management fees are payable both to the multimanager and the manager of the underlying assets at rates
contained in the offering documents of the relevant portfolios (and may involve performance fees where expressly indicated therein).
Momentum Global Investment Management Limited (Company Registration No. 3733094) registered office at 20 Gracechurch Street, London EC3V 0BG.
Momentum Global Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom, and is an authorised Financial Services
Provider pursuant to the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37 of 2002 in South Africa.
© Momentum Global Investment Management Limited 2012
60 global investment management
Contact: Lucy RichardsonMarketing ManagerMomentum Global Investment Management [email protected]: +44 207 939 1725www.momentumgim.com