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Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy SecurityThe Hard Choices facing us
University of TokyoTokyo: 16th June 2008
CRedCarbon Reduction
N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук
Energy Science Director CRed Project
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal5th October 2007
The twin critical issues facing us:
• Global Warming / Climate change
• need to reduce carbon emissions
• Energy Security
• recent high oil prices are a foretaste of what may happen
• demand is outstripping supply
Are there conflicts between these issues?2
Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy SecurityThe Hard Choices facing us
3
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
(ppm
)Evidence of Climate Change
3
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
T
em
pe
ratu
re R
ise
(oC
) actual
predicted
Is Global Warming man made?
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
Not a good match between 1920 and 1970
Predictions include:
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity44
Is Global Warming man made?
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
Prediction: Natural only
good match until 1960
Predictions include:
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(oC
)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(oC
)
actual
predicted
55
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Te
mp
era
ture
Ris
e (o
C)
actualpredicted
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic
Generally a good match
Predictions include:
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity
Is Global Warming man made?
66
Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation
Source: Tim
Osborne, C
RU
Change in precipitation in UK 1961-2001
7
8
Increasing Occurrence of Drought
9
Source: Tim
Osborne, C
RU
Increasing Occurrence of Flood
2003
• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite
imagery
10
1979
Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
•20% reduction in 24 years
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Gas and Oil Production - ASPO projection 2004
Bill
ion
bar
rels
of
oil a
yea
r
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Oil and Gas on Earth are running out
11
Comparison of Discoveries and Demand
0 1936.553 1937 34.761 1937 1.9220 1937.92 1938 31.547 1938 2.0830 1938.784 1939 36.482 1939 2.2440 1939.78 1940 14.011 1940 2.4050 1941.146 1941 10.056 1941 2.50120 1941.651 1942 3.141 1942 2.59740 1942.852 1943 3.878 1943 2.69360 1943.714 1944 7.826 1944 2.78980 1944.915 1945 8.316 1945 2.8860 1945.77 1946 6.832 1946 3.130 1946.691 1947 51.274 1947 3.3740 1947.555 1948 56.209 1948 3.6180 1949.098 1949 56.699 1949 3.8620 1949.904 1950 20.894 1950 4.105750 1950.927 1951 16.447 1951 4.34950 1951.8 1952 27.555 1952 4.593250 1952.819 1953 21.379 1953 4.8370 1953.687 1954 28.537 1954 5.245333
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
bili
on b
arre
ls p
er a
nn
um
actual discoveries
projected discoveries
demand
We need to consider alternatives now12
13
UK Gas Production and Demand
Import Gap
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Inst
all
ed C
ap
aci
ty (
MW
)
New Build ?
ProjectedActual
14
UK Nuclear Capapcity
15
Actual Nuclear
Projected Nuclear
Actual Coal with FGD
Opted Out Coal
Renewables
New Nuclear?
New Coal ???
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MW
• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018
Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy SecurityThere is a
looming capacity shortfall
Even with a full deployment of
renewables.
A 10% reduction in demand per
house will see a rise of 7% in total demand
- Increased population decreased
household size
16Per capita Carbon Emissions
JapanUK
How do UK and Japan compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
17
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person
On average each person in UK and also Japan causes the emission of ~9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
18
Carbon Emissions and GDP
0
5
10
15
20
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000Income per Capita (US$)
CO
2 em
issi
ons
ton
nes
/cap
ita
Japan
Libya
Russia
USA
ChinaTurkey
India
Norway
France
UK
Sweden
SwitzerlandDenmark
Germany
Netherlands
GreeceItaly
19
Carbon Emissions and Electricity
r
20
Electricity Generation i n selected Countries
Historic and Future Demand for Electricity in UK
Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ele
ctri
city
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
TW
h)
Business as usual
Energy Efficient Future ?
21
22
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MT
on
ne
s C
O2
Actual
Business as Usual
Energy Efficiency
The Gas Scenario
Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas.
Replacements for ageing plant
Additions to deal with demand changes
Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010
25% renewables by 2025
Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010
But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002)
Business as Usual
257% increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002)
Electricity Options for the Future for UK – the conflicts
Gas Consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
bil
lion
cu
bic
me
tre
s Actual
Business as Usual
Energy Efficiency
23
Energy Efficiency Scenario
Other Options
Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to fall significantly and excessive gas demand is to be avoided
Business as Usual Scenario
New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MT
on
ne
s C
O2
ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mto
nn
es C
O2
ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix
25% Renewables by 2025
• 20000 MW Wind
• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.
Alternative Electricity Options for the Future
What prospects are there for the future?
Reduce existing fossil fuel energy use by:• Awareness Raising• Good Management• Improvements in energy efficiency technology• Renewable Energy• Offsets
24
Good Management and improvements in Energy Efficiency in buildings will be covered in Lecture this evening at 18:00 at British Council 1-2, Kagurazaka, Shinjuku-ku near Lidabashi Metro Station
25
ZICER Building
Good Energy Management reduced consumption in a Low Energy Building by a further 57%
Incorporates 34 kW of Solar Panels on top floor
Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005 awarded by the Carbon Trust.
26
A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future: In our homes未来的低碳之路
1. 不要浪费能源Awareness
3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy
4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting
2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Measures
27
A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future for business
4. Renewable Energy
5. Offsetting
Green Tariffs
3. Technical Measures
1. Awareness
0
200
400
600
800
1000
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Mean |External Temperature (oC)
En
ergy
Con
sum
pti
on (
kW
h/d
ay)
Original Heating Strategy New Heating Strategy
O
2. Management
28
Comparison of Carbon Emissions from Heating & Hot Water
Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
29
30
Performance of a Solar Thermal System
Solar Gain (kWh/day)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 20 30 9 19 29 8 18 28 10 20 30 9 19 29 9 19 29 8 18 28 8 18 28 7 17 27 6 16 26 6 16 26
Day of Month
Sola
r G
ain
(kW
h)
December January February
March April May
June July August
September October
Data collect 9th December 2006 – 30th October 2007
31
Solar Electricity
It is still very expensive
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation
On shore wind
•1.5 MW machine will provide energy for 1000 homes in UK
•New machines are twice as big
66 m
66 m
32
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation
Off shore wind
By mid August, 2008 UK will have ~ 450 MW of offshore wind – the highest of any country.
33
34
Scroby Sands Wind Farm has 30 turbines and can provide sufficient electricity for 35 000 houses on average.
Performance of UK Wind Farms in East Anglia
HydroelectricitySome countries have a high proportion of hydro electricity -
Norway ~ 98.9%
UK ~ 1.9%
Japan ~ 7.8%
35
Possible opportunities for Micro Hydro.
5.5 kW
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Biomass
But Land Area required is very large - 10000 sq km would be needed to generated justr 5% of UK electricity needs.
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from methane from waste.
36
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Wave
37
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Tidal
38
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Tidal
39
40
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation
Output (MWh)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
01/0
1/20
02
15/0
1/20
02
29/0
1/20
02
12/0
2/20
02
26/0
2/20
02
12/0
3/20
02
26/0
3/20
02
09/0
4/20
02
23/0
4/20
02
07/0
5/20
02
21/0
5/20
02
04/0
6/20
02
18/0
6/20
02
02/0
7/20
02
16/0
7/20
02
30/0
7/20
02
13/0
8/20
02
27/0
8/20
02
10/0
9/20
02
24/0
9/20
02
08/1
0/20
02
22/1
0/20
02
05/1
1/2
002
19/1
1/2
002
03/1
2/20
02
17/1
2/20
02
31/1
2/20
02
Out
put
(MW
h pe
r da
y)
Output 78 000 GWh per annum
Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney
Save 40000 tonnes of CO2
Tidal Barrages
41
Involve the local Community• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned
for a wind turbine.
• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.
• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.
• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.
• Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.
Involve the local CommunityEven better things are happening on the Island of Westray.
The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines
Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm
and other vehicles.
Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea
weed
42
43
Raising Awareness• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing
machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year
• Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour in Northern Japan or UK?
2.6 km
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya 43
44
In the UK the Carbon Reduction Programme is aiming to push the agenda towards the 60% cut needed to combat Climate Change
CRed
45
CRedBirmingham
Carbon Reduction
CRedNorth Carolina
Carbon Reduction
CRedJapan?
Carbon Reduction
CRedShanghai
Carbon Reduction
CRedChester
Carbon Reduction
CRedAustralia
Carbon Reduction
Elsewhere in UK
Overseas
In the Future
CRedFylde
Carbon Reduction
46
CRed already has a WEBSITE in China
47
World’s First MBA in Strategic Carbon Management
First cohort January 2008
A partnership between
The Norwich Business School and the 5** school of Environmental Sciences
Sharing the Expertise of the University
48
ConclusionsClimate Change and Energy Security are important issues
Effective strategies are needed to explore integrated approaches involving
•Awareness raising
•Improvement s in Management
•Improvements in Energy Efficiency
•Deployment of Renewable Energy
•Finally, when all other things have been achieved, Offsetting
Offsetting should not be used as the first choice.
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."
49
WEBSITE cred-uk.org/
Visit this WEB site. Follow Academic Links this presentation will appear from 19th June
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) [email protected]
Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy SecurityThe Hard Choices facing us
This evening at 18:00 at British Council 1-2, Kagurazaka, Shinjuku-ku near Lidabashi Metro Station
Low Carbon Strategies for BusinessThe Experience of the University of East Anglia