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Higher Education 2025

Key Note Speech at the CHERIF-KEVER Conference

”Beyond Structural Change of Finnish Higher Education”

Helsinki, 10 February 2010

Prof. Dr. Ulrich TeichlerInternational Centre for Higher Education Research Kassel (INCHER)

University of Kassel, GermanyEmail: teichler@incher.uni-kassel.de

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The Futurology of Higher Education Research

In the 1990s: Multitude of conferences/publications: “Higher Education in the 21st Century”

“Beyond 2010”: ESF “Higher Education; Looking Forward (HELF)” (published in Higher Education, September 2008)

“Beyond 2010”: ESF “Higher Education; Looking Forward (HELF)” (published in Higher Education, September 2008)

2020: The visions of the Bologna process extended from 2010 to 2020

2025: CHERIF

2030: OECD project

Thematic future stages, e.g: Sino-Finland HE Forum “Higher Education in the Post-Massification Era” (April 2010 in Beijing)

The Futurology of Higher Education Research

In the 1990s: Multitude of conferences/publications: “Higher Education in the 21st Century”

“Beyond 2010”: ESF “Higher Education; Looking Forward (HELF)” (published in Higher Education, September 2008)

2020: The visions of the Bologna process extended from 2010 to 2020

2025: CHERIF

2030: OECD project

Thematic future stages, e.g: Sino-Finland HE Forum “Higher Education in the Post-Massification Era” (April 2010 in Beijing)

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The Dialogue between HE Research and Policy/Practice

Higher education research as a policy-relevant research field might play the following roles for policy/practice:

a. Problem identification and explanationb. Consultancy/advice in decision-making processesc. Regular monitoringd. Evaluation of the impact of decisions/measures

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The Need of Earlier Problem Awareness of HE Research

HE research should reflect possible future directions of higher education and its context in order to explore possible future problems already in advance of the public problem awareness. HE research needs some time to identify the problems and their causes; if it starts doing this in advance, HE research is prepared when the public problem debate eventually looms.

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The Boring Futurology

Futurology often is viewed as boring and presence-oriented

Only extrapolation of current trends and fashions: the “end of history”

As at the beginning of industrialization: demand for more horses

Now: ten-times more training courses for university presidents in 2025?

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The Need for Various Models of Possible Future Scenarios

e. The “continuity of trends” and “consolidation of recent policies/measures” scenarios

f. The “Great Expectation and Mixed Performance” (Cerych/Sabatier 1986) or “The glass is half empty and half full” scenarios

g.The “the past was beautiful” and “back to the past” scenarios

h.The “endemic crisis” scenarios

i. The “changing fashion” or “circular developments” scenarios

j. The “completely new”, “innovation” and “surprise” scenarios

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The Inclination to Establish Single-Dimension Scenarios

Example: The OECD “Four Futures Scenarios for Higher Education” (2006)

(1) Open Networking;

(2) Serving Local Communities;

(3) New Publication Management;

(4) Higher Education Inc.

All scenarios focus on higher education manage-ment and additionally on core functions of HE

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Multi-Dimension ScenariosThey could address major aspects of HE (cf. Teichler 1996):

k. Quantitative-structural aspects (e.g. expansion, diversification)

l. Knowledge aspects (including researchpromotion, curricula etc.)

m. Person and process-related aspects (e.g.teaching, learning, researching, scholars,students etc.)

n. Organisation-related aspects (govern-ance, administration, funding etc.)

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Potentials of Joint Brainstorming for Scenarios with Policy

Makers/Practitioners

HE research analyses anyway thoughts/activities of highly intelligent people

Many policy makers/practitioners in the HE system believe anyway that they are the experts

Blurred borderlines between researchers and practitioners in HE

Incomplete expertise of HE researchers

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Proposal: Critical and Compensatory Role of Future Scenarios Undertaken

by HE Researchers

Policy makers/actors are inclined to do “trend/consolidation”, “half full and half empty” and “back to the past” scenarios;

HE researchers should concentrate on endemic tension, just recently emerging and possibly surprising perspectives.

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Starting Points of Future Scenarios: Issues and Trends 2000-2010

Expansion and growth Growing expectation of visible relevance Growing multi-actor decision making (not a “managerial”

decade) Increasing assessment activities and assessment-related

decision-making Growing “output”, “outcome”, “impact” awareness Growing “professionalization” of the HE actors (?) Internationalisation Life-long-learning (?)

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The Future of Expansion

How will the dramatic increase of graduates already “in the pipeline” be absorbed, and how will this affect the highereducation system? A corresponding increase of typical graduate jobs (very

unlikely)? Smaller differences of educational attainment determine

continuing substantial differences in status/work tasks/income?

A flattening of the occupational hierarchy? Economic and social progress through a small knowledge

elite or the wisdom of the many? Fierce competition for educational success? Loss of interest in education due to declining economic

return?

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The Future of the “Utilitarian Drift” in Higher Education

A “success story” of growing economic wealth and social well-being?

A growing “finalization” of research leading to losses in creativity?

“Free Humboldtian zones” as islands in the utilitarian sea?

The growing “employability thrust” in HE might undermine professional values

Utility for visible “innovation”, but not for solving the big crises of mankind and nature?

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The Knowledge Society: A Gain or Loss for HE?

Peter Scott: The biggest crisis in the history of the university Loss of social exclusiveness of scholars, students and

graduates; loss of exclusiveness of the function of generating new knowledge, increasing competition between scholars and other knowledge experts; only survival of the “credentialing function”

Are there more positive scenarios in this respect? What political climate in the future knowledge: Satisfaction

or complaints? What climate of discourse: solidarity, rational consensus,

dogmatic/obstinate behaviour of the experts?

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Multi-Actor Decision-Making

In the past: Crisis of trust as regards collegial university, governmental planning, participatory decision-making?

In the near future: Crisis of trust as regards the “managerial university”?

NPM: On the way to a better sorting of responsibilities or move from Burton Clark’s “Triangle of coordination” (market, state and academic oligarchy) to a Heptagon or Octagon of coordination (additionally managers, participatory actors, external stake-holders, boards, etc.)?

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Increasing Assessment Activities

Can the workload for reporting, being assessed and assessing others be balanced by increase of productivity?

Dramatic dichotomy of preciseness and accuracy within individual disciplines and relatively primitive measures of quality assessment in HE research

What is the impact: “Qualities” or “over-homogeneous” aims and criteria?

What safeguards “healthy competition”, and what leads to “destructive competition”?

Dramatic increase of faking of research results and faking of statistics/reports and dramatic increase of counter-measures?

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Growing “Output”, “Outcome” and “Impact” Awareness

The end of the Humboldtian idea: The utility of non-utilitarian thinking?

The new “evaluative culture”: Permanent reflection of “what”, “why”, “how”, “what results”?

The opportunities and dangers of continuous evaluative reflection

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Concurrent Trends of Professionalisation within HE

The HE managers (presidents, heads of administration, deans etc.)

The scholars (teaching methods, research management, etc.) Increase of higher educational professionals (guidance

counsellors, international officers, fund raisers, quality management experts, etc.)

Government Increase of number, size and functions of umbrella

organisations Opportunities and dangers of increasing professionalization

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Internationalisation of Higher Education

Decline of mobility (relatively primitive and costly mode of knowledge transfer); increase of “internationalisation at home”, “virtual mobility” etc.

Decline of “intentional” internationalisation along internationalisation of the daily life?

Global communication or stronger nationalistic “globalisation policies”?

Persistence of supra-national market dominanceand imperialism, or a stronger role of world-wide governance?

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“Life-long learning”

Concurrent inflation of pre-higher education learning, initial study in higher education and continuing (professional and other) education?

Or move towards a model of “recurrent education”?

Will “continuing professional training” remain small, while continuing self-learning expands?

Will HE, in hunting for new LLL territories, loose its distinctive character of a creative semi-distance to society and coaching?

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Surprises

Or will there be un-anticipated surprises?

If so, try to find me and try to inform me in 2025

I would be 83 years old: Would I still be able to understand you?