1 INFOBALT2002, VILNIUS, LITHUANIA LEAGUE OF INVESTORS, 22
October 2002 Ballistic Lithuania from Baltic: ICT Market trends
1995-2002
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2 Romualdas Krukauskas Vice President of association INFOBALT
INFOBALT2002, VILNIUS, LITHUANIA LEAGUE OF INVESTORS, 22 October
2002
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3 BALTIKUM-FORUM MNCHEN, 15. Oktober 2002
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4 5 000 BC - Beginning of Baltic Culture 1009 - First use of
the Name LIETUVA- Lithuania - Litauen (Quedlinburg Analen, in
Deutschland) 1387 - Lithuania adopted Christianity 1795 - Lithuania
as part of Russia 1918 - 1940 - Independent Lithuania 1940 - 1990
Lithuania as part of USSR 1990 - 2002 - Independent Lithuania
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5 1. Association INFOBALT02 = Union of 155 companies 2. Traide
fair INFOBALTXX and conference in Vilnius = Baltic CeBITXX (from
1994)
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6 INFOBALT EXIBITIONS IN 1994 2001 INFOBALT EXIBITIONS IN 1994
2001 EXIBITORS EXIBITORS SQUARE METRES SQUARE METRES
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7 THANKS ALL OF YOU FOR COOPERATION ! INFOBALT 2002 INFORMATION
SOCIETY WEEK 21-26 October, 2002, Vilnius International conference
Information Society 2002 and League of Investors 21-22 October,
2002, Vilnius International exhibition of information society
technology Infobalt 2002 23-26 October, 2002, Vilnius
www.infobalt.lt
9 1.The mission of the INFOBALT is to represent and defend the
interests of the IST industry in Lithuania and abroad Aiming to
fulfil this mission, the INFOBALT pursues creation of optimally
favourable conditions for the growth of the IST industry, which
would be of benefit to the Lithuanian population, public sector and
business world in the improvement of the quality of life.
www.infobalt.lt
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10 WWW.INFOBALT.LT STRUCTURE 1. Association INFOBALT 2. Fund of
Association INFOBALT for Development of Information Society in
Lithuania 3. Company INFOBALT CENTRAS 4. INFOBALT Copyright
Agency
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11 The Wall Street Journal published its Index for Economic
Freedom, an economic ranking of nations. Lithuania, which was among
top scorers, was heralded for having the most improved economy in
the history of the index. Investment bank Goldman Sachs called
Lithuania the Ballistic Baltic in a recent report - it is a rising
star and a launch pad to profitable growth. BALLISTIC
LITHUANIA
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12 Lithuanias economy is the fastest growing economy in Central
and Eastern Europe (according to analysis made by Hansabank Markets
and LandesBank Kiel) BALLISTIC LITHUANIA
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13 GDP rose by 5.7% in 2001 and is projected to rise an annual
5.4 % - in 2002 BALLISTIC LITHUANIA
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14 WWW.LDA.LT
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15 `
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16 annual inflation rate fluctuates at about 0.1% - 0.2%
BALLISTIC LITHUANIA
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17
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18 17% industry growth in 2001, compared to 2000 retail sales
increased by 14% in the seven months of 2002, compared to the same
period of the previous year cumulative FDI has been increasing
fastest in Central and Eastern Europe and is currently USD 3.5
billion, which makes around 21% of GDP Lithuania is rapidly
becoming an export economy, exports now make 38% of GDP and are
continuing to grow; export volumes totalled USD 5.2 billion in
2001. over 80% of the economy is already in the private hands the
banking system is 100% private and 90%-owned by major Western banks
BALLISTIC LITHUANIA
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19 Growth of ITT market in Lithuania in 1994-2000, USD
million
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23 In 2001, the Lithuanias ICT market grew by 24,8 per cent In
2001, the Germany ICT market grew by -1,3 per cent
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24 Baltic States IT Market Size in 2001 (mln. USD) Baltic
States IT Market Size in 2001 (mln. USD) Baltic States IT Market in
2001 was 642, 18 mln. USD
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25
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26 SURPRISE ?!? ICT/GDP ratio in 1998 (WITSA, INFOBALT)
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27
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28 ICT Market in Lithuania (in Millions Euro) : 1999 615 ; 2000
722; 2001 806; According EITO2002-IDC 1999 754 ; 2000 1070; 2001
1480; According Infobalt.
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29
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30 ICT Market Growth rates in Lithuania in 1999-2001 in EURO :
00/99 17.4%; 01/00 11.6%; According EITO2002-IDC estimation 00/99
42.0%; 01/00 38.3%; According Infobalt estimation.
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31
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32 ICT Market Growth rates in Lithuania in 1999-2001 in LITAS :
00/99 31.2%; 01/00 24.8 % - accorging INFOBALT due to different
exchange rates in 1999-2001 years.
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33
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? And only future common work and cooperation between CEEC and
Western experts in unification of methodologies for ICT market
estimation can give the adequate and real outlook of Eastern
European ICT industry, fully comparable with Western European data
and forecasts.
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40 INFOBALT Strategic goals By 2015, with stable annual
economic growth rates: 7 per cent - optimistic level 6 per cent -
average level to achieve 25% share of ICT (Knowledge Economy) in
Lithuanias GDP (with 25 % of this from export) To achieve that the
society gets greatest possible benefit from IST, scientific
research and innovation activity To accelerate the development of
economic factors which ensure social development and employment
(digital divide) To arrange economic factors for ensuring
environment protection
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41 Structure of GDP 1900-2010 19501900 Metai 2020 20% 40% 60%
GDP Industry Agroculture Information &Services 80%
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42. ICT share in LITHUANIAS GDP IN 2000 2015
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46 Informacins visuomens pltros komitetas prie LR Vyriausybs
Vyriausybs Informacins visuomens pltros komisijos posdis Fiksuoto
ryio tarifai (2001 m. vidurys) 91.6812.4 1840vedija
3ND32.211.6-39.9Suomija 82.684615823Latvija 61.171661117.8Estija
142.7940111219Lietuva Internetas (ct./ min.) Tarptautiniai (JAV)
(Lt./ min.) Tarpmiestiniai skambuiai (ct./ min.) Vietiniai
skambuiai (ct./ min.) Sujungimo mokestis (ct.) Abonentinis mokestis
(Lt./ mn.)
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47 EU Economic Growth lags behind the US Source: Eurostat EU
US
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48
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49 Knowledge capacities : decline (& recovery?)
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50 Intensity and volume of R&D expenditure, 1999
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51 THINK FAST Knowledge-based Economy SPEED START TODAY, NOT
TOMORROW 1.Leapfrogging is best done in times of extreme change
like these 2.Hurry to create a stable middle class of knowledge
technologists 3.Your agriculture + manufacturing services labour
force redeployment will be major, so start early DRUCKERs POINTS:
1.You have 10 months or so to tilt your National Devt. Strategies
towards KBE 2.Use e-Europe + and Intl. Organizations for help 3.But
dont wait: begin your own actions, support your first movers MORE
DOWN- TO-EARTHS POINTS:
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52 LISBON THE PROCESS AND THE STRATEGY STRATEGY: Promoting the
information society, R&D, innovation and competitiveness
Investing in human capital and modernising the European social
model Applying an appropriate macro-economic policy mix The EU has
today set itself a new strategic goal for the next decade: to
become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge- based economy in
the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and
better jobs and greater social cohesion
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53 EU ACCESSION COUNTRIES: COMPLETE BASIC ECONOMIC REFORM; AND
ADD POLICY CONSISTENT WITH CREATING A KNOWLEDGE BASED ECONOMY
Eliminate subsidies to non-innovating old enterprises (mostly in
agriculture, coal, mining, railways, shipbuilding, and steel)
Regulatory development for the financial system and creation of
sophisticated capital markets, including a regulatory environment
that encourages venture capital Better protection of intellectual
property rights Policies to increase labor market flexibility
(reduced mobility restrictions, low minimum wages, reduced
termination restrictions) Effective social safety net (coordinated
pension, unemployment and social assistance schemes) Continued
building of legal and judicial institutions, with accountability of
government Improved allocation of public expenditure, including
more funding of R & D, and of higher education, while
maintaining fiscal stability Policy to continue to reduce cost of
start up by small and medium enterprises
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54 5 th Framework 1998-2002 Tendering for R&D Projects -
50% financed by European Commission (EC) and 50% by participants -
Universities, Industry, Government Institutions See www.5fp.lt and
www.cordis.lu/rtd2002/ Lithuanias participation in 5 th Framework
for R&D in European Union
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55 Lithuanias participation in 5 th FW for R&D in EU
Financing distribution according different programs of 5 th FW from
EC to Lithuania (TOTAL 7,7 MEUR) Largest: IST Information Society
Technologies 1.405.209 1.615.894 930.369 838.596 870.821 663.465
773.896 536.096 LIFE IST GROWTH NNE ESD INCO INNO IHP Source:
European Commission, December 2001
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56 Lithuanias participation in 5 th FW for R&D in EU By end
of 2001 membership fee paid from Lithuania to EC 5FW 7,4 MEuro
Return back to Lithuania from EC 5FW 7,7 MEuro Source: European
Commission, December 2001
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57 LT - LITHUANIA
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58 6. INOVATIONS LTU + 7. LEAPFROGGING, TIGERS, AMBITION
PRJECTS LTU + 8. SENSE AND RESPOND A NEW PARADIGM in INDUSRTY,
SCM-ERP-CRM LTU- 9. New dimension in private-public-
ED&SC.&R&D coolaboration and partnership LTU -
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How technologies can help to solve POLITICAL PROBLEMS
www.infobalt.lt
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Good, friendly relations between Lithuania and Kaliningrad
Region of Russia, cross-border movement of people in this area and
related visa issues has become an "entrance" ticket for Lithuania
to join the European Union. The residents of Kaliningrad Region
today have visa free entry to Lithuania, and vice versa Before EU
accession, Lithuania is planning to introduce visa regime in July
2003. Russia would prefer to keep current visa free movement of
people from Kaliningrad to "great" Russia and in opposite direction
LITHUANIA AND KALININGRAD REGION www.infobalt.lt
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Electronic Travelling Visas on smart-cards for the residents of
Kaliningrad Region can improve the border crossing possibilities
for the residents of Kaliningrad Region Political Project Idea
Technologies can help to solve a political problem -
www.infobalt.lt
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Use of mechanisms of PKI - Public Key Infrastructure - with
electronic signature on smart-card as a toolkit for Electronic
Visas or e-Visas Technological Project Idea www.infobalt.lt
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has the same purpose as a handwritten signature... as
handwritten visa could be role-based... The same... has the same
legal effect as a handwritten signature... The same... Digital
signature analogy - e-visa www.infobalt.lt
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KALININGRAD LITHUANIA BORDERBORDER Resident of Kaliningrad
Lithuanias Border control police officer Computer Center of
Lithuania's Consulate Network must work as e-visa Certification
Authority. Lithuania's Consulate in Kaliningrad Region issues
e-Visas for the residents of Kaliningrad www.infobalt.lt
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With the help of mobile computers, border control staff can
quickly and easily (in 3-7 seconds) check the identity of a person,
validate electronic visas and track the history of crossborder
transitions (if necessary) in each particular case Every year, some
1.5 million border-crossing transitions are made between
Kaliningrad Region and Lithuania. Time spent on border-crossing
procedures can be saved dramatically System can work both in ONLINE
and OFFLINE modes System can be used by customs offices for tracing
of transit procedures via Lithuania Advantages of e-visas
www.infobalt.lt
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Can improve the border crossing possibilities for the residents
of Kaliningrad Region With the help of PKI mechanisms for
Electronic Visas, the project can integrate the business of
Kaliningrad Region into the world of e-economy and enable all
residents of Kaliningrad Region to be full participants of e-trade
worldwide by using of e- signatures. In the future, can be used for
the movement within the EU Advantages of e-visas
www.infobalt.lt
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68 THERE ARE NOT ANY MAJOR TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGES. THE
PROBLEMS ARE ORGANISATIONAL AND EVEN HARDER - SOCIAL (EITO 2002, p.
345). 1.Infrastructure (10%) 2.Broadband comm.(5%)
3.Non-technological issues 30% 4.Digital signatures (20%)
5.Security (20%) 6.Legal issues (15%)
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69 Since 1999 Infobalt is providing aggressive Public Relations
Actions concerning Promotion of Information Society in our Country.
The Goal - to enhance Government, Business and Citizens concern
about the inadequate development of Information Society in
Lithuania, to intensify the understanding of the importance of ICT,
the Internet in the process of transition to new economy.
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Association Infobalt Lithuania, Vokiei 28/17 16, LT-2001
Vilnius LITHUANIA Ph. +370 2 62 26 23, fax +370 2 62 26 29 E mail:
[email protected]@infobalt.lt www.infobalt.lt Contacts
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71 WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO SEE YOU IN LITHUANIA ! THANKS ALL
OF YOU FOR COOPERATION !