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InstantSpot, a PanEuropean Model for Power Price and FlowFrom Mkonline.com

BE

CZ

SK

HU

RO

RS

SI

RO

RO

MK

BU

GRTR

BA

HR

MK

AL

Implicit Exchange & Price

Explicit Exchange & Price

Not included in IS. Yet

AL

SE4

SE3

SE2

SE1

NO4

NO3

NO5

NO2

NO1

D1D2

PL

CNOR

NORD

CSUD

SUD

SICI

SARD

InstantSpot MKonline• 38 Individual price areas

• Price and flow simultaneously

• Updates each 15 min, 24x7 Aim, continuous update, 10 sec intervals.

• Price and Flow forecasts

• Net Transfer Capacity Forecast

• Ensemble forecasts too

• PostFix update• Commnets 3 times a day

• Free BETA avaialbel for BLT, TR, and parts of SEE

Exegenous exhange

Info: Hugo@MKonline.com, +47 9187 7970

PostFix Update.Info arriving 12-15 is included-Prep for DA+1-Info on Intraday -Info for Balance

Cet par effect on price from new info arriving between 5 and 6

EC12 Det and Ens simulated with info arriving between 5-6.

InstantSpot, Updates During Work Hours

Pan European Price Formation, Montel conference 17.April 13 2

05 06

EC12 Det and Ens simulated with overnight updated info.

07

6:41-8:00

8:40-9:55

08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Spot comments are issued

Las update before Fix

Actuals

15 16 17

Spot arrives. Actual price updated and a comments are issued

EC00 Det arrives. Continuous update

EC00 Ens arrives. Continuous update

After EC00 Det update. Includes info 6:41-8:00

After EC00 Ens update. Includes info 8:40-10:00

EC00 Det Price calc.

EC00 Ens

Cet par effect on price from 12 and 15. PostFix

And on

And on

And on

MKonline feed you the instant price development and e.g. translates MWh changes into Euro/MWh for : -Price area, -When should you expect change -Why does it change

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Evidence from the modelling:A Lesson Learned:

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

St.Err, IS/Conv DEMAE IS/Conv DEIs on par with Conv

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

St.Err, IS/Conv FR

MAE IS/Conv FR

Is on par with Conv

20-J

an

28-J

an5-

Feb

13-F

eb

21-F

eb1-

Mar

9-M

ar

17-M

ar

25-M

ar

2-Apr

10-A

pr

18-A

pr

26-A

pr

4-M

ay

12-M

ay0%

20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%180%200%

St.Err, IS/Conv NPA

MAE IS/Conv NPA

Is on par with Conv

Started to include power flow and control the capacity assumptions. This reduced the model error dramatically