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1IPCC
Status and possible solutions to the climate change challenge:
What's new since IPCC AR4?
WMOUNEP
R K PachauriChairman, IPCC
Director-General, TERI
The Ny-Ålesund Symposium8th June 2009
2IPCC
+2500 scientific expert reviewers
800 contributing authors
450 lead authors
+130 countries
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
3IPCC
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
4IPCC
Observed changes
Global average sea level
Northern hemispheresnow cover
Global average temperature
5IPCC
Average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years- Annual average arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7%
per decade
6IPCC
The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas
- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes
7IPCC
The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching higher intensity have increased over the past 3 decades
- Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100 000 estimated deaths
8IPCC
Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas
- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths
9IPCC
“Continued GHG emissions [...] would induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed
during the 20th century”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
10IPCC
Carbon dioxide emissions
Rad
iati
ve F
orc
ing
(W
m )
Car
bo
n D
ioxi
de
(pp
m)
10000 5000 0
Time (before 2005)
-2Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increased markedly as a result of human activities, with an increase of 70% in 1970-2004
11IPCC
Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century
(best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)
year
Ranges for predicted surface warming
12IPCC
0 1 2 3 4 5 oC
WATER
Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes
Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes
Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress
ECO-SYSTEMS
Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality
Terrestrial biosphere tends towards a net carbon source as: 15% 40% of ecosystems affected
Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk
Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the meridional overturning circulation
FOOD
Complex, localised negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fishers
Tendencies for cereal productivity Productivity of all cereals to decrease in low latitudes decreases in low latitudes
Tendencies for some cereal productivity Cereal productivity to decrease in to increase at mid- to high latitudes some regions
COASTS
Increased damage from floods and storms
About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost
Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year
HEALTH
Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, infectious diseases
Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, droughts
Changed distribution of some disease vectors
Examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change relative to 1980-1999
13IPCC
Regions likely to be especially affected
The Arctic, because of the impacts of high rates of warming on natural systems and human communities
Asian and African megadeltas, due to large populations and high exposure to sea level rise, storm surges and river flooding
Small islands, which are highly vulnerable to projected sea level rise
Africa, because of low adaptive capacity and projected climate change impacts
14IPCC
Negative impacts on Europe
Inland and coastal flooding
Health risks due to heat-waves
Reduction of water availability and crop productivity in South Europe
Species losses and reduced snow cover in mountains
15IPCC
In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline
- The Chacaltaya glacier, 5,300m up in the Andes, which used to be the world's highest ski run, has been reduced to just a few small pieces of ice
1996 2009
Credit: Edson Ramirez
16IPCC
20-30% of species are likely to be at risk of extinction if increases in warming exceed 1.5-2.5°C
Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply metres of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas
Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning Circulation would have impacts on marine ecosystem productivity, fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation
Climate change could lead to some abrupt or irreversible impacts
17IPCC
“Delayed emission reductions significantly constrain the
opportunities to achieve lower stabilisation levels and increase the risk of more severe climate change
impacts”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
18IPCC
Energy system inertia: delayed emission reductions lead to investments that lock in more emission
intensive infrastructure and development pathways
Climate system inertia: even if GHG concentrations were held constant at year 2000 levels, a further
warming trend would occur in the next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade
Mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to have medium- and longer-term benefits
19IPCC
Stabilisation scenarios
3.2 – 4.0
2.8 – 3.2
2.4 – 2.8
2.0 – 2.4
Global mean temp. increase
(ºC)
2020 – 2060590 – 710
2010 – 2030535 – 590
2000 – 2020490 – 535
2000 – 2015445 – 490
Year CO2 needs to peak
Stabilizationlevel
(ppm CO2-eq)
20IPCC
Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030
Stabilisation levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
Range of GDP reduction
(%)
Reduction of average annual
GDP growth rates
(percentage pts)
445 - 535 < 3 < 0.12
535 - 590 0.2 – 2.5 < 0.1
590 - 710 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06
Costs of mitigation in 2030
21IPCC
“There is substantial […] potential for the mitigation of global GHG
emissions over the coming decades that could […] reduce emissions
below current levels”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
22IPCC
All stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available
or expected to be commercialised in coming decades
This assumes appropriate and effective incentives are in place for
their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion
23IPCC
Efficient lighting; efficient appliances; improved insulation; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances
Efficiency; fuel switching; renewables; combined heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of CO2 capture & storage
Energy Supply
TransportMore fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems
Buildings
Key technologies currently available
24IPCC
Integrated design of commercial buildings including intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; integrated PV
CCS for gas, biomass & coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power & renewable energy, including tidal and wave energy, concentrating solar, and solar PV
Energy Supply
Transport
2nd generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric & hybrid vehicles with more powerful & reliable batteries
Buildings
Technologies expected to be commercialised before 2030
25IPCC
Regulations and standards
Appropriate energy infrastructure investments
Research, development and demonstration
Key mitigation instruments, policies & practices
Effective carbon-price signal
Taxes and charges
Change in lifestyles & consumption patterns
26IPCC
Beyond the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report
27IPCC
Deeper understanding and quantification of the processes governing the climate system have progressed rapidly since the IPCC First Assessment Report (1990)
The main scientific conclusions from the sequence of IPCC assessments have been refined but not
significantly redirected
Recently observed climate changes remain coherent with the AR4 conclusions, although longer-term observation is required to draw significant conclusions on climate evolutions
Evolution of the climate science
28IPCC
Research-related priorities
Impacts under different assumptions about future development pathways
Damages avoided by different levels of emissions reduction
Expected impacts at the regional and local level
Causes and thresholds of possible abrupt climate changes
Links between climate change and other policies
Costs of impacts of, and responses to, climate change
29IPCC
Coming IPCC reports
5th Assessment Report (to be finalised in 2014)
Revised set of scenarios based on possible evolutions of GHG emission trajectories
Deeper coverage of the socio-economic and humanitarian dimensions of climate change
Technical Papers
Special ReportsRenewable energy: 2010Extreme events and disasters: 2011
30IPCC
Be the change you want to see in the worldDemocracy must in essence therefore, mean the art
and science of mobilizing the entire physical, economics and spiritual resources of all the various sections of the people in the service of the common
good for all.