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2
What Will (Mostly) Determine the Future of the World?
• The Aging of the Population
– Mortality rates falling
– Birth rates falling
– Work rates falling
– (hopefully)–The sky is not falling
3
25
48
6977
84
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Early Humans 1900 1950 2000 2050 (?)
USA
Life Expectancy at Birth
4
Source: Ronald Lee.
Life Expectancy at Birth, Fitted (1900–1996)and Forecasted (1997–2096)
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Lifeexpectancy
at birth
97.5 percentile
50 percentile
2.5 percentile
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
5
World
606,425
1,907,249
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2000 2050
Population Ages 60+, Total (Millions)
USA
46
104
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2050
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2050
China
6
10
1620
10
23
9
2125
35
30
42
28
0
10
20
30
40
50
World US Europe China Japan Thailand
2000 2050
Percent of Population Age 60+
8
12.9
2.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000
2050
China’s Support RatioPeople 25–64/People 65+
1.11.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
2000
2050
People 25–64/People (1-24 + 65+)
9
What Will (Mostly) Determine Our Future?
• The Aging of the Population
- SO WHAT’S THE PROBLEM
Provide income and health security during retirement at affordable budgets
10
What Will (Mostly) Determine Our Future?
• The Aging of the Population
- SO WHAT’S THE PROBLEM
Provide income and health security during retirement at affordable budgets
11
Government Benefits by Program and Age
Amountin 2000dollars
0 20 40 60 80
Age
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Medicare
SocialSecurity
Medicaid
Other benefits such as public assistance
Education
Source: Ron Lee
12
Taxes Paid by Age
Amountin 2000dollars
0 20 40 60 80
Age
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Payroll
SalesProperty
Income
Other taxes including federal corporate tax charges/fees
Source: Ron Lee
13
Projected Fiscal Balance by Level of Government, 2000 to 2100
Source: Ron Lee
Federal
Ratio of taxes to benefits
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
14
The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection
• The USA Health and Retirement Survey - HRS
15
Overview of HRS
• Nationally representative longitudinal survey of ~20,000 people age 51+ designed to produce public use data
• Funded mostly by NIA
• Began in 1992 with the birth cohorts of 1931-41
• Two year periodicity
• Links to administrative records—health and pension
• Has developed into a steady state design which– Represents U.S. population over the age of 50– Adds new six-year cohort each six years
16
Core Content Areas in HRS• HealthPhysical/psychological self-report, conditions, disabilities;
Cognitive testing
Behaviors (smoking, drinking, exercise)
• Health ServicesUtilization, expenditure, insurance, out-of-pocket spending
• Labor ForceEmployment status/history, earnings, disability, retirement, type of work
• Economic StatusIncome, wealth, and consumption
Linkage to pensions, Social Security earnings/benefit histories
• Family StructureExtended family, proximity, transfers to/from of money, time, housing.
17
HRS Longitudinal Sample Design
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
YEAR
War Babies
Early Boomers
Mid Boomers
AHEAD
CODA
HRS
18
0 2 17 41 77 102152
199255
310373
449 485
1 38
1223
37
53
66
72
81
8693
0 0 0
27
37
44
54
5959
10 1423
37
54
83
101
129
185
228
281
318
326
24
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Cit
atio
n C
ou
nt
Journal Article Book/Book Chapter Dissertation Working Paper Forthcoming
Scientific Productivity of HRS:HRS Publications, 1993-2005:
Cumulative Count by Type
Cumulative Count: June 15, 2005 Journal Publications 510 Books and Book Chapters 83 Dissertations 59 Working Papers 326 Total 978
19
The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection
• HRS
• ELSA (English Longitudinal Study of Ageing)
– Two waves completed (2002, 2004)
20
1998 1999 2001 2002/3 2003 2004/52000
HSE(CVD)
5,053
Nurse visit
HSE(CVD)
5,053
Nurse visit
HSE(ethnic)
2,227
HSE(ethnic)
2,227HSE
(respiratory)
4,549
Nurse visit
HSE(respiratory)
4,549
Nurse visit
ELSA W1
12,100Individuals
aged 50 or over
ELSA W1
12,100Individuals
aged 50 or over
ELSA W2
c.10,800
+ Nurse Visit
ELSA W2
c.10,800
+ Nurse Visit
ELSA Design Basics
21
ELSA/HSE SES Information
HSE ELSA02 ELSA 04
Employment details + + +
Work disability . . +
Social class; SEC, SOC etc. + + +
Education + + +
Housing tenure + + +
Banded household income + . .
Fully detailed income measure . + +
Fully detailed wealth measure . + +
Pensions (including data linkage) . + +
Expectations . + +
Consumption items . . +
Key: + Available; . Not available
22
ELSA/HSE Health InformationHSE98 HSE99 HSE01 ELSA02 ELSA 04
Self reported general health + + + + +
Longstanding illness + + + + +
CVD conditions + - - + +
Respiratory conditions - - + + +
Other specific conditions - - - + +
Blood sample + . + . +
Blood sample analysis + . . . +
Height and weight + + + . +
Blood pressure + . + . +
Walking speed . . . + +
Other physical functioning tests . . . . +
Key: + Available for all (consenting) respondents; - Asked only if respondent reports a long standing illness; . Not asked/collected in the general purpose sample
23
The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection
• HRS, ELSA
• SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe)
– 14 countries in Europe
– completed first wave 2004, approved for EU funding of second wave in 2006
24
Introduction to SHARE
SHARE: 22,777 individuals aged 50+ in 11 countries
– Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland
– Ireland, Poland and Czech Republic added in second wave
• Some 150 researchers
• Sponsored by EU
• Additional funding U.S. NIA and national funds
• Optimal cross-national comparability
26
What data will be collected? (1)What data will be collected? (1)
1. Health Variables: Self-reported health, physical functioning (ADLs, IADLs, walking speed, grip strength), mental health and cognition, health behaviors and health utilization, insurance coverage. In the longer run: bio-medical data.
2. Economic Variables: Current work and job characteristics, employment history, pension rights, sources of current income, wealth and consumption.
27
What data will be collected? (2)What data will be collected? (2)
3. Family and Social Network: Family structure, assistance within families, intergenerational transfers of money and time, social networks, time use after retirement.
Psychological data: Expectations, preferences, risk aversion, time horizon
Demographic data: Basics (age, gender, marital status...), housing, education
Data Links: Where available: administrative earnings, social security, employer provided information.
28
The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection
• HRS, ELSA, SHARE
• - South Korea, Thailand and Japan all underway