Climate change impacts factsheet:

1. Marine biodiversity and resources

Australia’s marine biodiversity and resources are significant ecologically, economically and socially. Australia’s

exclusive economic zone (EEZ) extends 200 nautical miles from our coastline and makes up around 2.2% of the world’s ocean area. The most obvious impacts of climate change on our oceans are physical and chemical: rising sea level, ocean warming, changes in currents and increased CO2 uptake in the ocean. These changes will in turn trigger biological responses in marine organisms. These impacts have far-reaching implications not only for how marine ecosystems function, but also for social and cultural issues, economic or market drivers, and marine management, policy and governance.

Climate and marine biodiversity and resourcesThe El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major cause of the fluctuations in Australia’s climate. ENSO is a major sea temperature and air pressure shift between the Asian and east Pacific regions. During El Niño years, temperatures are warmer than average in the east Pacific and cooler than average over the Indonesian region. During La Niña years these effects are reversed. ENSO affects Australia’s marine EEZ to differing degrees around the coast. The sensitivity and vulnerability of Australia’s marine biodiversity and resources to ENSO is complex and regionally variable:• during La Niña years there is improved settlement of

western rock lobster larvae around Western Australia;• during El Niño events there are improved scallop harvests

in Shark Bay;• ocean warming along Queensland’s Great Barrier Reef in

January-March of the year immediately following an El Niño event makes the reef vulnerable to coral bleaching.

Intense tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall or drought events associated with La Niña/El Niño can be beneficial or detrimental depending on the region and/or marine species.

Future climate trendsRates of warming in south-east and west Australian waters are already substantially higher than the global average warming rate (Figure 1). Sea surface temperatures in south-east Australian waters are projected to be at least 2.5oC warmer by 2100. The East Australian Current is expected to continue to increase in strength, bringing more persistent warm, salty and low nutrient waters off Tasmania’s east coast. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are associated with increased CO2 uptake by the oceans and ocean acidification. Between 1751 and 1994, the acidity of the world’s oceans has increased by close to 30%.

Australia’s marine environment is at risk from changes to ocean temperature, salinity, sea level, mixed layer depth, circulation, pH, and from changes in atmospheric radiation and climatic extreme events. The differing physiological tolerances, resilience and adaptive ability of marine species will lead to changes in their distribution, abundance, and community structure. Examples include:• Warming of turtle nesting beaches may produce an

imbalance in the offspring male:female ratio, reducing future breeding performance.

• Coral bleaching occurs as a result of most coral species’ inability to tolerate unusually high water temperatures; bleaching events are likely to become more common as oceans warm.

• Warmer waters will allow increased occurrence of tropical fish in southern seas.

• Nutrient-poor waters brought south by the East Australian Current may affect productivity in the edible oyster industry.

• Continued declines in recruitment and biomass in southern rock lobster are expected, with regional changes in the associated fisheries.

• Disease may increase as symbiotic associations break down, while both pests and disease could be exacerbated by an increase in sea water temperature.

• The range of toxic algal blooms can be expected to expand; e.g. the red-tide dinoflagellate, Noctiluca scintillans, has expanded its range from Sydney into southern Tasmanian waters, causing problems for the salmon farm industry.

• Ocean acidification is expected to affect the physiology and metabolism of marine organisms with carbonate body parts, such as corals and shellfish.

Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities

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Social and economic impactsIt is likely there will be both winners and losers as a result of changing conditions. With shifts in the distribution of species, populations of established fishing grounds may be reduced or replaced by other species, affecting the profitability of fishing. The fishing industry may be faced with longer and more costly journeys to fishing grounds and higher workloads associated with new policies, legislation and regulations related to the management and conservation of marine resources. For the aquaculture industry, increased outbreaks of disease, nutrient pulses, algal blooms and storm surges can affect profitability. Marine and coastal ecosystems provide high lifestyle and tourism values which could be negatively affected by the impacts of climate change. For example, although a ‘last chance to see’ phenomenon may boost tourism in the short to medium term, coral bleaching and degradation of reefs would ultimately cause the decline of much marine tourism with follow-on socio-economic effects for coastal communities. Rising sea-level also has serious implications for developments close to the shoreline, which may have difficulty obtaining property insurance against flood and wind damage, may lose value, and may ultimately be forced to relocate. Local council planning regulations are beginning to take these risks into account.

Adaptation: practices, options and barriersFishers have traditionally been obliged to adapt to seasonal differences and climatic events and to withstand the economic consequences. Climate change, however, presents a new dimension. The adaptive capacity of fishing businesses can be built by responsive business practices and improved fishing technology, informed by the best available scientific information on climate and the marine environment. The survival potential of those species susceptible to climate change will be enhanced by strategic programs to restore and protect fish habitats and breeding grounds in temperate and coral reefs, seagrass beds, mangroves and salt marshes as well as fish refugia.Flexible policies that support, for example, ecosystem-based fisheries management and/or strongly consider conservation and ecological issues while enabling innovation and adaptation will be critical. Citizen science programs such as Redmap, and ready access to shared research datasets, such as those available through the Australian Ocean Data Network, will assist in improving research information.

About the NetworkThe Marine Adaptation Network encourages cooperation, discussion and collaboration between marine sectors to address common concerns about climate change impacts, and to develop adaptive response strategies. The Network promotes collaborative, interdisciplinary research and Network theme leaders have prepared a suite of integrated synthesis papers of sectoral climate change impacts and adaptation case studies for publication. Graduate schools have been held to educate the next generation of marine adaptation researchers, and Network scholarships support students researching aspects of marine adaptation which will inform policies and management decisions. The Network website, information sheets and the quarterly Marine Adaptation Network Bulletin present information about contemporary and emerging knowledge and activities. For more information see www.arnmbr.org

Beneficial opportunities may also arise, for example, the aquaculture industry might be able to explore carbon dioxide sequestration. Better engagement and common-language communication between researchers and marine stakeholders about vulnerabilities and adaptation options will enable adaptive capacity building. Actions that reduce non-climate stressors (e.g. chemical runoff) on the marine environment will most likely reduce the impacts of climate change on marine species.

www.nccarf.edu.au

Image: Harry Kontos

‘With shifts in the distribution of species, populations of established fishing grounds may be reduced or replaced by other species, affecting the profitability of fishing. ‘

Research prioritiesKey research priorities identified by researchers, stakeholders from government and peak bodies and industry include: • selective breeding to produce more resilient,

disease resistant aquaculture species with increased physiological tolerance to temperature and pH changes;

• studies of the interface between marine and terrestrial environments, flood plains, mangrove flats, wetlands and coastal areas; and,

• identification of indicator species to predict range shifts. Research will need to be interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary with strong engagement between researchers and industry. Collaboration to establish baseline data in a national integrated program of climate change monitoring and modelling should help reduce duplication, improve projections and benefit management and policymakers in all sectors.

Climate change impacts factsheet:

2. Terrestrial biodiversity

Terrestrial biodiversity can be defined as the variety of life forms on the land surface of the Earth. High biodiversity is

often used as an indicator of ecosystem health and has been shown to have direct links to human health. Climate change will affect terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems through both gradual and sudden changes in response to the average climate (e.g. increased temperatures, decreased rainfall, changes to seasonality), and extreme events (increased hot days, fire, increased frequency and severity of cyclones, heat waves, intensified wet seasons).

Climate and terrestrial biodiversityThe distribution and life cycle of individual terrestrial species are inherently linked to local climate conditions. All species have an ‘optimum climate’ in which they survive and thrive and which dictates the timing of life cycle events (e.g. flowering, emergence, mating and migration) and their geographical distribution. At the extremes of a species’ climate tolerance, growth and reproduction may be reduced compared to populations growing at optimal conditions. The success of a species may also rely on the climate tolerance of interacting species. For example, a herbivore may be able to tolerate warmer conditions than the plant it feeds on, but the absence of this plant may exclude it from warmer regions. Individuals of a species can sometimes avoid unfavourable

climate conditions through behaviour (e.g. resting in cool rock cracks during hot conditions) and exploitation of micro-climate conditions (e.g. cool, moist gullies).

Future climate trendsAverage surface air temperature rose 0.9°C in Australia in the past 100 years, and the distribution, intensity and seasonality of rain across most of the continent has changed. These trends are expected to continue, accompanied by increases in the incidence of hot days, reductions in cold days, frosts and snow cover, and a southerly movement of tropical cyclone tracks. For terrestrial biodiversity, the projected increase in the number of extremely hot days (>35°C) will be significant - in many parts of the continent, the number of days over 35°C could triple by 2070. The predicted increase in extreme fire days is concerning and could have substantial impacts on terrestrial biodiversity. Major biomes and climatic zones may shift and some researchers predict an expansion of the sub-tropical dry zone across Australia, bringing hotter, drier, desert-like conditions.

Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identified terrestrial systems as among the most vulnerable sectors in Australia and New Zealand. The vulnerability of species and ecosystems depends on factors including the sensitivity of the species or ecosystem, the level of exposure and the intrinsic adaptive potential. Terrestrial species have already responded to observed climatic changes, globally, and in Australia. The geographic ranges of many species have changed in location and size, and many species are displaying altered timing of life cycle processes such as migration and breeding. Some species also show altered behavioural, genetic, and physiological traits. Terrestrial species likely to be most vulnerable include many that are already endangered or rare. These species commonly have restricted or fragmented geographic distributions or habitats. They may have specialised ecological requirements and narrow climatic tolerances. Species that are currently common or widespread may also be negatively affected. Extreme events such as heat waves, droughts and wildfires will likely have catastrophic impacts. For example, mass die-offs of possums and grey headed flying foxes have already been observed following prolonged high temperatures.Fragile ecosystems include:

• Alpine species and communities, which will be particularly at risk from a combination of reduced snow cover and potential increases in wildfire occurrence.

Image: Andrew Kenworthy

Research priorities

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Nationally, we need to know how climate change will affect existing conservation goals and how best to implement new conservation strategies to minimise negative impacts. Regionally, we need to understand how climate change will interact with other key stressors such as fire, invasive species, salinity and habitat loss, the impact of which will differ among states and regions. Locally, we need to understand how particular species and ecological communities can be managed to maintain viable populations.Other uncertainties include the extent and speed at which climate change will affect biodiversity and ecosystem services, and the thresholds of climate change above which ecosystems might be irreversibly changed and no longer function in their current form. There is considerable uncertainty about the effectiveness of direct interventions such as managed relocation or habitat corridors, and experience shows that they may come with significant risk of unintended consequences.

• The biodiversity hotspot of south-west Western Australia, where a variety of systems and species will be severely affected by increased frequency or severity of drought.

• Mangroves and coastal wetlands, which will be affected by rising sea levels, storm surges, and more cyclones.

• Rainforests of north Queensland, which support a large number of endemic terrestrial species. The lifting of the cloud cap, the increasing length of dry seasons, increasing temperature and more severe cyclones could have very severe impacts.

Research suggests that climate change will interact with, and exacerbate, many other processes that threaten terrestrial systems. Many of these are of human origin, including introduced species and land-use change.

Social and economic impacts The effects of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity will have cultural, social, and economic impacts including loss of ecosystem services such as clean water, pollinators and amenity. For Indigenous people, biodiversity loss could mean the loss of culturally significant species including important bush tucker, medicinal plants and art and craft resources, and of important ancestral connections. Tourism in Australia contributed $33 billion to the 2010 Gross Domestic Product and nature-based tourism contributes significant revenue in all Australian states and territories. Key tourism regions likely to be affected include Kakadu National Park (wetlands affected by salt intrusion linked to sea-level rise), Victorian alpine regions, the Great Barrier Reef and the Wet Tropics rainforest.

Adaptation: practices, options and barriersMost adaptation actions will be highly specific to particular ecological communities or ecosystems. For example, suppressing fire in sensitive vegetation types in the alpine zone will require different management strategies from those facilitating landward migration of endangered salt marsh communities in the coastal fringe. Central to adaptation in terrestrial systems is the concept of Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA). Defined as ‘the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of an overall adaptation strategy to help people to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change’, EbA promotes the value of maintaining intact and functional ecosystems as a cost-effective strategy for protecting human health, settlements and livelihoods from extreme weather events. EbA activities could include restoration of wetlands and riparian areas, which benefits wetland-associated species, reduces flooding potential and maintains water quality.Other key areas for adaptation in terrestrial systems include conserving and regenerating climate refugia. Climate change will increasingly be a consideration in the selection, design and management of protected areas. Many species currently protected in national parks, for example, will no longer be in climatically suitable areas as the climate changes; strategies to facilitate autonomous adaptation (e.g. movement corridors) will need to be considered. More interventionist strategies include managed relocation, genetic translocation (i.e. moving individuals with different genetic make-up into new populations) and ex-situ conservation, which may be the final option for critically endangered species. Biodiversity will also be affected by adaptation strategies in other sectors, such as bushfire control

around human settlements, and changes to agricultural locations and methods, including abandonment of marginal agricultural land and increased demand for irrigation water.

CostsUndoubtedly, the natural world provides many services that are undervalued. The reduction or loss of these services would greatly affect human health, infrastructure and livelihoods, and the capacity of human society to adapt to climate change. There is currently limited information on the costs of impacts and adaptation to climate change for terrestrial biodiversity. The cost of what we will lose if we fail to adapt to or mitigate climate change will be immense. A recent report on The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB, 2010) looked at the value of some ecosystems services, and estimated that:

• halving deforestation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is worth US$3.7 trillion; and

• the economic value of insect pollination for agriculture worldwide in 2005 is US$153 billion.

About the NetworkThe Terrestrial Biodiversity Network aims to collate knowledge, co-ordinate expertise and synthesise these inputs into recommendations and frameworks to guide the way for Australia to adapt to global climate change. The Network has a national focus, and distributes activities and funding opportunities across all states and territories. Membership includes researchers, institutions and stakeholder organisations, government agencies, conservation groups, and a variety of non-government organisations.A major focus is to communicate research to end-users through quarterly newsletters and information sheets, stakeholder roadshows, workshops and seminars. The Network also builds research capacity by funding student projects and collaborative travel grants. For more information visit:http://nccarf.jcu.edu.au/terrestrialbiodiversity

Climate change impacts factsheet:

3. Water resources and freshwater biodiversity

runoff and inflows to reservoirs, local groundwater and wetlands have all declined dramatically (see Figure 1). In addition to growing demand, other environmental and socio-economic stressors affect water resources and freshwater biodiversity including dryland salinity, land clearing, river regulation, over-allocation and inefficient use.

Future climate trendsClimate models mostly project a 2–5% decline in mean annual rainfall across Australia by 2030. Reductions in winter rainfall in south-western and southern Australia are likely, although some models suggest rainfall may increase, particularly during northern Australian summers. Reductions in the extent and duration of snow falls are highly probable. Temperatures are projected to increase by 0.7–1.2oC by 2030. Surface and groundwater hydrology is likely to change as a result of these climatic drivers, and coastal freshwater ecosystems are highly likely to be affected by rising sea level and salt-water intrusion

Climate change impacts and vulnerabilitiesProjected future climate trends on hydrology are likely to have significant implications for water security and freshwater ecosystems, especially in southern and eastern Australia. The availability (or lack) of water has flow-on effects for many sectors in Australia. Some of the sectors most vulnerable to future trends include:Agriculture – Water available for irrigation is likely to be significantly reduced with high demand industries particularly at risk. In some areas, pasture growth may also be negatively impacted by rainfall decline and altered flooding patterns. Substantial shifts in farming are likely to result, especially in marginal farming lands in semi-arid and arid regions.Biodiversity – Declines in river flows, increased drought and extreme flooding events, and salt-water intrusion are all

Source: Water Corporation

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Year is taken as May-April and labelled year is start (winter) of year.Inflow is simulated based on Perth dams in 2001 excluding Stirling, Samson & Wokalup October 2011

Annual Total1911-1974 av (338 GL)1975 - 2000 av (177 GL) 2001 - 05 av (92.7 GL)2006 - 10 av (75.3 GL)

Figure 1. Inflows to the Perth water supplyIn south-western Australia, winter rainfall has declined significantly since the mid-20th Century and runoff and inflows to reservoirs, local groundwater and wetlands have declined dramatically

Fresh water is essential for virtually all forms of life and human endeavour. But a significant imbalance between

water supply and demand — the times and places we need water compared to where and when it is available — means our planet faces a water crisis. Human health, the environment, agriculture, energy and mining are all challenged by issues of water quality and quantity. While population growth and rapid economic development are partially responsible, a variable climate is a significant driver, and a changing climate is likely to strongly impact on freshwater resources in the future. The resulting change in freshwater availability will continue to challenge all aspects of human society and natural ecosystems.

Climate and water resourcesAustralia has one of the most variable rainfall climates in the world. In any 10-year period, we average three good years and three bad years. A major cause of these fluctuations is the climate phenomenon called the Southern Oscillation. This is a major air pressure shift between the Asian and east Pacific regions - its best-known extreme is El Niño. This strongly influences the availability of freshwater needed for cities, irrigation, industry and the environment. The impact of water availability on society was highlighted by the protracted drought in eastern and southern Australia, known as the ‘Big Dry’. Lasting from 2001 to 2011, this led to the lowest recorded inflows to the Murray River. The breaking of the drought was followed by extreme rainfall and widespread flooding in 2010/2011. The social, economic and environmental costs of these events have been catastrophic.Increased and competing demands for freshwater, mainly for drinking water and irrigation, have in places been accompanied by long-term and persistent reductions in supply. In south-western Australia, winter rainfall has declined significantly since the mid 20th Century and

very likely to result in changes to the composition, structure and function of freshwater ecosystems. In addition, existing stresses on freshwater ecosystems (e.g. altered hydrology, habitat loss, invasive species, etc) will be aggravated by climate change, increasing the risk of species extinctions and shifts in the provision of ecosystem services.Human health – In addition to threats to water supplies for drinking and hygiene, the extent of mosquito-borne diseases, e.g. Ross River and Dengue Fever, may expand due to the impacts of fewer but heavier rainfall events on mosquito breeding. Projected changes to surface water hydrology may also lead to more frequent and prolonged toxic algae blooms. Infrastructure – Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, flooding events and tropical cyclones will increase pressure on floodplain levees and urban drainage systems with an increased risk of failure of these systems.

Social and economic impactsResponding to the growing imbalance between water supply and demand has driven changes in water governance, in particular water allocation, by governments in Australia. There is also likely to be further pressure on individuals and private organisations to alter their water use patterns and accept significant changes to the quality and quantity of water provided for different purposes. Policy, infrastructure and social changes are likely to be necessary to facilitate adaptation to water scarcity in urban areas. Recent efforts to address water shortages in southern Australian urban areas include installation of desalination plants, and use of recycled water from effluent.Changes in the structure and function of rivers, estuaries and wetlands will affect the ecosystem services they provide, with far-reaching social and economic implications. For example, in rural areas, declines in agricultural productivity and shifts in farming are very likely and salt-water intrusion into estuaries and wetlands may affect coastal fisheries, recreational fishing and tourism (e.g. in the iconic Kakadu National Park).

Adaptation: practices, options and barriersAdaptation strategies for protecting water resources may be supply-side (e.g. water recycling, seawater desalination, installation of rainwater tanks), demand-side (e.g. water restrictions), or both. Barriers to the implementation of these measures can include technical limitations of water distribution systems, costs, inflexible institutional arrangements and community resistance. In some cases these obstacles may be overcome by incentives, such as rebates on rainwater tanks. Expansion of water markets and water trading are often recommended as a means of increasing water-use efficiency, as are improvements to irrigation infrastructure.In the case of freshwater biodiversity, adaptation strategies that maintain well-functioning ecosystems are pivotal. This is achieved through enhancing resilience, removing or managing existing stressors, and maintaining diverse and well-connected mosaics of ecosystems (i.e. aquatic, riparian and terrestrial components) across the landscape. Surface and groundwater resources are essential to freshwater biodiversity and aquatic ecosystem processes. Appropriate management is critical. Over-allocation of water resources represents a major obstacle to implementing suitable adaptation strategies for protecting freshwater biodiversity.

CostsThe costs of adaptation measures to protect water security, such as changes to water supply infrastructure and environmental water allocations, are likely to be large. However, investment in adaptation measures will in the long term be small in comparison with the costs associated with threatened water security and key ecosystem services.

About the NetworkThe Water Resources and Freshwater Biodiversity Adaptation Research Network, convened by the Australian Rivers Institute at Griffith University, brings together Australia’s top water scientists and managers with interests and skills in water resources and freshwater biodiversity and the implications for these of climate change. The Network has a regional node in each State and Territory and is supported by over 20 partner research institutions. Network activities aim to facilitate collaborative, cross-disciplinary research, build research capacity through supporting and mentoring early career scientists, and synthesise and communicate relevant knowledge to give water and biodiversity managers the best chance of coping with an uncertain climate future. For more information visit www.nccarf.edu.au/water

www.nccarf.edu.au

Research prioritiesFor biodiversity:• investigating the effects of climate drivers on poorly

understood species and communities;• understanding how to incorporate climate change

adaptation into water resources and freshwater ecosystem management to maintain ecosystem services;

• studying the indirect effects of climate change on freshwater resources (e.g. soil acidification, sea level rise);

• determining how to increase the resilience and connectivity of areas that provide refuges to freshwater organisms, e.g. through the design of reserve systems.

For water resources: Understanding:• the interdependencies of the water sector with other

infrastructure sectors, e.g. reliance of the supply system on uninterrupted electricity supply, and reliance of electricity generators on water for cooling;

• the pressures on water availability from competing users - domestic, agriculture, commercial - under climate change;

• where the weak points lie in the water supply system, e.g. the locations of boreholes, pumping stations and purification works which are vulnerable to flooding;

• the potential impacts on hydrology and freshwater biodiversity of climate change adaptation and mitigation actions in other sectors.

Climate change impacts factsheet:

4. Primary industries

Australia’s primary industries sector, including primary producers and associated industries, contribute

significantly to the country’s economic, social and environmental well-being. The sector includes the agricultural, forestry and freshwater aquaculture industries and the rural communities that support them. Together they contribute $48.1 billion per annum to Australia’s gross domestic product.

Climate and primary industriesClimate is one of the fundamental factors that determines where different types of primary production can be successfully pursued. For many primary industries, climatic conditions – including climate variability – determine seasonal or annual production and actual profitability. Climate variability is nothing new for Australian agriculture – producers have always managed and adapted to a highly variable and challenging climate, including drought, heatwaves, frost, bushfires and flooding.

Future climate trendsKey climate variables affecting the profitability and sustainability of primary industries include temperature, rainfall, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and extreme weather events. • By 2030, annual temperatures across Australia are

projected to increase by about 1oC relative to 1990, with greater warming in inland Australia and less in coastal regions. There will be more heat stress days.

• Rainfall is projected to decrease by 2–5% across Australia by 2030, except in northern Australia where little change is expected.

• The frequency of drought is projected to increase, particularly in the south and south-west, with up to 20% more drought months over most of Australia by 2030 relative to 1990. The occurrence of heavy rainfall events and severe tropical cyclones is expected to increase.

Climate change impacts and vulnerabilitiesChanges to climate will result in reduced productivity and profitability in some locations and industries, and new opportunities and improvements in others. Reduced rainfall and runoff will decrease broadacre cropping and pasture yields and limit water availability and allocations for irrigation. The sensitivity of irrigated agriculture to reduced rainfall is evident in the recent drought in south-eastern Australia, which saw the area of irrigated land in the Murray Darling Basin reduce 42% between 2005–06 and 2007–08.Increased temperatures may cause reduced productivity and reproduction rates in livestock industries. Some plant industries may experience decreased product quality with extreme high temperatures, particularly viticulture and horticulture. In present-day cooler climates, crops may benefit in future from longer growing seasons and fewer severe frosts, increasing yields and allowing plantings in areas previously considered too cold. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations are likely to affect the productivity of primary industries directly (see Box 1). The plantation and native forest sectors are likely to be particularly vulnerable to increased occurrence and severity of fire weather i.e. extreme heat, dryness and wind, particularly if CO2 fertilisation increases plant biomass. Changed climate conditions will alter the spread and impact of weeds, pests, diseases and predators. Tropical weed species may move further south under a warmer climate. Some pests and diseases already present in a region are likely to become more virulent and widespread while higher temperatures and reduced rainfall may reduce fungal infections or preferentially promote pest predators.

Social and economic impactsThe socio-economic effects of climate change are likely to be complex and far-reaching. In addition to potential major impacts on production, climate change is likely to increase the demand for services, commodities and resources such as water, energy, land, fertiliser and oil from both the primary industries and the wider economy. This could expose primary producers to increased input costs. Climate change – particularly extreme events – will affect the well-being of rural communities and the industries associated with them. Ultimately this may threaten the long-term sustainability of many rural townships.

Australia’s primary producers in the global contextPrimary industries in Australia are affected by national socio-economic factors, and also interact with wider global factors. In 2006/7, agricultural products including processed food and beverages accounted for 16% of Australia’s merchandise exports. There have been two historic highs in global food

Box 1: Effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations on plants Increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere increase plant photosynthesis, causing plants to develop faster and increase their biomass. This can be observed in the laboratory but is harder to discern in open country where factors such as water limitation, pests and diseases can be important. Some plants are more affected than others. So-called C3 plants (trees and grasses) respond better to this enrichment effect than do C4 plants (crops such as sugar cane and maize), suggesting that a world of higher CO2 concentrations may favour C3 plants. However, it appears temperature increases may have the opposite effect, so the net result remains uncertain.

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prices in the last decade: one peaking in 2007, and one beginning in 2010 and continuing in 2011 (see Figure 1). These trends are at least in part driven by natural hazards, for example the ban on grain exports imposed by the Russian government in response to the drought of 2010 contributed to the recent rise in grain prices. Globally, rising food prices have resulted in a spike in the number of people considered ‘food insecure’. In Australia, global food prices have not yet threatened food security, and prices received by farmers have risen substantially as a result of global trends. With climate change likely to exacerbate price rises, global food insecurity may cause other countries to close their food markets and ban exports. Although higher world food prices will help Australian farmers’ incomes, the negative impacts of climate change locally on production may prevent farmers taking full advantage of higher prices.

Adaptation optionsPrimary industries have a range of adaptation options that can be applied, many of which can generate additional benefits by maintaining or increasing the profitability and/or sustainability of primary industries.i) Adjusting existing practices and technologies. Australia’s primary producers are experienced in adjusting production practices, genotypes and breeds without new infrastructure and expertise. Adjusting to climate change impacts will require regional research and validation and attention to specific market requirements. This type of response will be ongoing, even if more fundamental or transformative responses are required.ii) Changing the primary production system or mix of activities undertaken. Production system responses will be required where climate change either: • reduces productivity or quality to the point where current

systems become unsustainable despite adjustments to production practices; or

• results in new production systems becoming more profitable than existing systems.

Examples include changing plant or animal species or the mix of production activities on a farm or in a region. Drier conditions in recent years have allowed the expansion of grain crops into western districts of Victoria which were previously too wet in winter.iii) Transforming primary production enterprises and industries. Where climate change results in new regions or industries becoming more profitable or sustainable than

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Research prioritiesThe National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan (NARP) for Primary Industries prioritises research around:• what adaptive capacity means in the primary

industry sector and how it can it be measured and increased;

• how governments, producers and other stakeholders can identify the type of adaptation response that is most appropriate to the circumstances of a producer, industry or region;

• the options that are available for adjusting current production practices and technologies; changing production systems; and transforming enterprises and industries.

Research must address stakeholder awareness, social and cultural factors, management practices, production technologies, production systems and industry transformation, as well as the biophysical and technical aspects of climate change adaptation.

current regions or industries, or existing primary industries in a region become unsustainable, a fundamental redesign or transformation may be required. With careful planning and management, transformative changes might yield multiple natural resource benefits.

Adaptation-mitigation interfacesWith the land sector a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, government mitigation policies will have considerable implications for primary industries and rural communities. The federal government’s Carbon Farming Initiative may provide economic incentives for farmers and foresters to reduce emissions and sequester carbon, allowing some diversification of income.

CostsAustralian agriculture is sensitive and exposed to climate. Projected changes to a warmer and, in many regions, drier future will impact production. It is difficult to estimate the resulting costs because prices fluctuate to reflect supply, and because of the industry’s high adaptive capacity. Farmers are likely to change practices and varieties to adapt to new climates. However, climate change increases the uncertainty about future conditions, which has costs in terms of delaying investment.

About the NetworkThe Primary Industries Adaptation Research Network was established to provide a gateway to climate change adaptation research in primary industries. It aims to improve the coordination, development and accessibility of climate change adaptation research in the sector. It brings together stakeholders from Australia’s primary industries, associated organisations, rural communities and governments to make sound decisions about climate changeadaptation responses. For more seehttp://www.piarn.org.au

Climate change impacts factsheet:

5. Settlements and infrastructure

Almost 90% of Australians live in cities and large regional towns, and approximately 80% live within 50 km of

the coast. Australia’s settlements and infrastructure face challenges in responding to climate change that include:• planning for secure infrastructure, including urban water

and energy supply and transport systems, which can withstand climate change impacts and in particular any changes in the occurrence of extremes, and

• designing buildings and urban spaces to ensure maximum comfort for minimum energy use in a changing climate.

Appropriate governance and institutional arrangements are required to meet these challenges.The lifetimes of the built environment and infrastructure are long – typically 40 years for energy and water systems, but rising as high as 90 years for bridges and 100 years for major transport routes. Planning for settlements and infrastructure must take into account climate change over much longer periods than is generally the case for other areas of human activity such as farming.

Climate, settlements and infrastructureThe climate in which a settlement exists is an important determinant of its design, planning and infrastructure needs. Warm tropical climates demand shade and ventilation, cyclone-prone regions follow building codes designed to withstand these events and flood-prone regions have planning regulations and infrastructure designed to minimise flood damage.

Future climate trendsTemperatures in Australia have warmed by around 1.5–2oC since the 1960s. From 1993 to 2009, sea levels around Australia rose by 1.5–3 mm per year in the south and 7–10 mm in the north. Australia’s annual average temperatures are projected to increase 0.4–2.0°C above 1990 levels by 2030, and 1–6 °C by 2070. Rainfall is expected to decline in southern Australia, and increase in the north-west. A sea-level rise of 0.2 to 0.8m above 1990 levels is projected by the end of this century. It is likely that rising average temperatures will lead to more frequent and severe heatwaves, made worse in urban areas by heat island effects. Projections for other extremes are less certain: there may be more intense cyclones; cyclone tracks may move further south over Australia; rainfall extremes causing both drought and floods may become more common.

Climate change impacts and vulnerabilitiesSettlements evolve and are planned to be well adapted to their climate. In a warming climate, this adaptation may break down.

Examples of how this can happen include:• Outdoor urban environment may not be designed for

hotter temperatures and more heatwaves, offering little shade and protection from glare. Houses may not be designed to cope with hotter weather without air conditioning.

• Increasing temperatures and aridity can lead to more high fire-risk days, which may threaten peri-urban housing.

• Coastal settlements are vulnerable to sea-level rise and increased storm surge, exacerbated by continuing population growth and development demand.

• Some climate models suggest cyclones will track further south as a result of climate change, affecting places that are unprepared in terms of building design, methods and materials. The high-set Queenslander house is well-designed for hot and humid Queensland summers, but offers little protection in a severe wind storm.

Australia’s infrastructure will be affected by climate change in the following ways. • The energy sector is likely to be affected by extremes

including wind storm (damage to power lines), extreme temperatures (increased cooling demand) and drought (lack of cooling water for power stations). The 2009 heat wave in Melbourne caused major power disruptions leaving over half a million people without power as the heat wave blew transformers and overloaded the grid.

• More frequent drought and extreme rainfall events are expected to affect the capacity and maintenance of storm water drainage and sewerage infrastructure, drinking water quality and water demand for irrigation and domestic needs. Managing competing demands for water is likely to emerge as a major policy issue as climate change intensifies.

• Transport infrastructure in flood-prone areas is vulnerable to climate change. Heat waves can cause major disruption to transport systems: in the 2009 Melbourne heatwave, 1,300 train services were cancelled in one week due to buckling rail lines, air conditioner failures and power outages.

Social and economic impactsClimate change will occur in the wider social, economic and demographic context of Australia. A growing and ageing population will place very different demands on settlements and infrastructure from those of the present day, for example, a greater requirement for aged care facilities. Planning for these changing requirements will need to take account of climate change.

Research priorities

Left: Adaptation to wind storm damageFollowing the devastating damage to Darwin caused by Cyclone Tracy in December 1974, Australia’s building codes were changed. The results of these changes are clear from the damage caused by Cyclone Yasi at Cardwell, Queensland, in February 2011.

Top photo: Damage to a pre-Cyclone Tracy era house.

Bottom photo: Damage to a modern house.

Images: Matthew Mason

www.nccarf.edu.au

NCCARF in its National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for Settlements and Infrastructure identified priority research questions around:• Planning: How can urban planning principles, practices

and governance be modified to incorporate adaptation?• Builtenvironment: What are the design options and

principles, costs and benefits, for adapting new and existing buildings, and how can they be implemented? What are the equity issues; how should they be managed?

• Coastalcommunities: What are the interactions of climate change and sea-level rise with demographic changes, policy and regulatory frameworks?

• Infrastructure: What are the vulnerabilities to climate change, including changes in extremes? How should design standards be modified?

• Cross-cuttingissues: linking climate change adaptation for settlements and infrastructure with physical, social, economic and institutional factors.

Climate change will impact on vulnerable members of society disproportionately – the poor, the very old, the very young, the sick. Equitable provision of infrastructure will become a greater challenge, with climate change impacting upon water and energy security and cost. Houses may need to be retrofitted to withstand higher temperatures and extremes, which may challenge the financial capability of homeowners. Cheaper housing is often located in areas vulnerable to climate extremes, including flooding and bushfire. If these extremes become more common/more severe, such locations may no longer be safe. Policy decisions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are likely to place a greater emphasis on public transport. Urban spaces will need to be designed and built to meet the very different needs of a society seeking to reduce reliance on cars.

Adaptation: practices, options and barriersBuiltenvironment:adaptation responses will encompass innovative design practices and options, including green walls and roofing, electric vehicles, and urban rainwater retention. Houses will be built to provide comfort without over-dependence on costly air conditioning.Infrastructure:the integration of distributed renewable energy sources with the existing concentrated transmission grid will raise challenges as well as offering opportunities to improve resilience of the energy supply system. Adaptation options for greater robustness in water security may involve measures which both increase supply and reduce demand. Engineers Australia is presently revising the guideline document for stormwater and flooding, AustralianRainfallandRunoff to include consideration of climate change; this will aid in implementing adaptive responses to changing rainfall intensities.Adaptation options for coastal settlements generally fall into the categories of retreat, accommodate and protect. Other mechanisms include insurance for risk spreading, re-drafting of regulations and planning; research and education. Barriers to adaptation may include:• Uncertainties around the precise nature of climate change,• Historical precedents, legacies and inertias, such as legal

precedents and expectations of continuing land use rights,

• Lack of understanding of the costs versus benefits of adapting new and existing assets.

CostsCost comparisons may aid planners and designers to choose appropriate adaptation strategies. For example, reducing demand for water may be cheaper than increasing water supply capacity. Adaptation options for existing coastal settlements are likely to be the most costly, as they will inevitably involve either displacing communities, or building and maintaining protective structures and upgrading key infrastructure.

About the Network The Australian Climate Change Adaptation Research Network for Settlements and Infrastructure (ACCARNSI) is hosted by the University of New South Wales. It brings together researchers and stakeholders interested in climate change adaptation for coastal settlements, infrastructure, the built environment, and urban regional planning. ACCARNSI conducts collaborative interdisciplinary research to help government, businesses, and vulnerable communities to make informed adaptation decisions, hosts conferences and events including four National Early Career Researcher Forums, and offers scholarships to promising researchers. For more see: www.nccarf.edu.au/settlements-infrastructure

Climate change impacts factsheet:

6. Indigenous communities

Present-day climate and Indigenous communitiesThe degree to which Indigenous communities are vulnerable to climatic conditions, including extreme weather events, depends on combinations of factors:

• In isolated and remote Indigenous settlements, costs of transport and supply monopolies give rise to high prices which, when coupled with few jobs, create poverty and welfare dependence.

• Many such communities are inaccessible by road due to widespread flooding in the wet season (December to March). This limits mobility and access to fresh food and essential goods.

• During tropical cyclones in Northern Australia, authorities often find it hard to deliver disaster relief to remote Indigenous communities due to infrastructure constraints.

• Indigenous people typically have inadequate access to education and health services, which increases vulnerability to health risks of climate change.

There is growing evidence from around the world that Indigenous peoples will be more affected by climate

change than other social groups. The Indigenous people of Australia account for 2.5% of the population, and are comparatively young, with a median age of 21 years compared to 37 years for the non-Indigenous population. The majority live in regional areas (43%) or major cities (32%); just 25% live in remote areas. There are a number of reasons why the Indigenous community may be disproportionately affected by climate change:• Those living in remote areas of Australia are vulnerable

to any increase in the occurrence of extremes, such as tropical cyclones and flooding, which increase their risk of being isolated for long periods of time;

• Those whose livelihoods include a greater or lesser dependence on fishing, hunting and gathering for the quantity, or more likely the quality, of their diet are vulnerable to shifts in climate (atmospheric or marine) which in turn affect the distribution and abundance of species;

• Strong connection to country may make it hard if not impossible for people to contemplate permanent relocation;

• Climate change is likely to compound existing Indigenous poverty and disadvantage in Australia.

Future climate trends• Best estimates from global climate models

suggest Australia’s temperatures are likely to increase by 0.7°C to 1.2°C by 2030, with the greatest increases inland.

• Sea-level rise is expected to be similar to the global average of around 83 cm by 2100.

• Research suggests a projected decline in mean annual rainfall of around 2–5% by 2030, particularly in the south-west, with little change in Northern Australia.

• Projections indicate, but with low confidence, that the intensity and frequency of extreme events, including heavy rainfall events and droughts, are likely to increase by 2030.

These changes pose significant risks to Australian Indigenous communities. Those living in rural and remote locations, and/or those working in natural resource-dependent industries, are likely to be particularly exposed.

Key future climate change impacts and vulnerabilitiesPoverty, disadvantage and human health: Climate change seems likely to compound existing Indigenous poverty and disadvantage in Australia. Indigenous Australians, particularly those living in remote communities in Northern and Central Australia, are likely to be disproportionately affected by the adverse impacts of climate change on human health, including through heat stress, water and food-borne illnesses, air pollution, and vector-borne infectious diseases. Existing health challenges in these communities, including the prevalence of chronic and infectious diseases, poor quality housing and infrastructure, and inadequate access to health services, all heighten the risk posed by climate change.Ecosystem services: In judging the likely impacts of climate change on Indigenous communities, of pivotal importance is the extent to which a community depends on ecosystems for its livelihood and well-being, the resilience of those ecosystems in the face of climate change, and the capacity of communities to adapt to changes in access to ecosystem goods and services. Many remote and rural Indigenous communities depend on marine, terrestrial and freshwater resources for their livelihoods. For coastal communities, collection of fish, shellfish, turtles and dugong is important for subsistence, social, cultural and economic purposes. Fish and shellfish provide a cheap healthy protein source. Declining availability of marine resources will negatively impact diet, as residents are forced to rely more heavily on the expensive and generally unhealthy foods available in local stores. Increasing numbers of Indigenous people are involved in marine-based economic enterprises, such as fisheries,

aquaculture and tourism. Changes in the marine environment pose risks to the economic viability of these operations. Water security: Changes in the quality and availability of water supplies in Indigenous communities pose risks to human health and development. Water supplies in coastal and arid environments are at risk from contamination of water supplies by salt-water intrusion resulting from a drying climate and sea-level rise. Cultural heritage: Sea-level rise, coupled with king tides and storm surges, poses increasing risks in both material and non-material ways. In addition to the risks to human habitation, coastal flooding threatens to damage or destroy cultural heritage sites. While some groups have expressed concern about the potential loss of ‘culture’ as a result of inundation of heritage sites, and sought to move cultural artifacts to other locations, others have declared that even if a cultural heritage site is no longer visible it still retains its cultural significance.

AdaptationFor many Indigenous communities, poverty and unemployment, and poor health, housing and education, are more immediate and pressing issues than future climate change. Indigenous leadership, communities and organisations, both independently and in collaboration with governments and non-government organisations, are attempting to tackle disadvantage and socio-economic marginalisation through a variety of strategies including welfare reforms, educational programs, health provisions, improved housing stock, alcohol controls, and development opportunities. These initiatives can reduce the vulnerability of Indigenous people to climate change. A key issue, therefore, is how to fully integrate adaptation strategies with poverty reduction, environmental management, and human development plans. Such ‘mainstreaming’ approaches raise the possibility of ‘win-win’ or ‘no-regrets’ adaptations through the creation of policies that reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change while simultaneously addressing other social priorities.In consideration of Australia’s post-1788 history, it is unlikely that adaptation plans or policy recommendations developed without the engagement and collaboration of local Indigenous communities will be legitimate, efficient, fair, or effective. Adaptation policies, plans and projects need to draw upon the present day and historical experiences of Indigenous communities, and to harness their knowledge and skills.

Adaptation-mitigation interfacesDue to their relative poverty, Indigenous individuals, households, businesses and communities – particularly those in remote locations – may be disproportionately affected by the implementation of policies to address climate change through adaptation and mitigation. Climate change policies also offer opportunities for Indigenous people. In the tropical savannas of Northern Australia, traditional Aboriginal fire-burning techniques reduce the size and extent of unmanaged wildfires, and hence greenhouse gas emissions, by undertaking strategic burning from early in the dry season. Although these traditional practices have fallen into disuse in recent decades, there are moves to reinstate them as part of emergent carbon offsets markets. Fire abatement represents a promising area of economic development for northern Aboriginal groups. Indigenous rangers, natural resource managers and traditional owner

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groups are likely to play key roles in monitoring changes to biodiversity, and in developing and implementing adaptation actions. Indigenous ecological services, fire abatement, and reforestation are likely to become important elements of the economies of some communities, particularly those with native title rights. If these endeavors increase incomes of Indigenous people and access to services, then they may at the same time increase adaptive capacity.

Research prioritiesThe NCCARF Indigenous Communities National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan was completed in September 2011, and outlines research priorities around climate change impacts and adaptation. The Plan identifies five broad categories of information needed to enhance decision-making:1. The sensitivity and exposure of indigenous individuals,

households, communities, businesses and institutions to climate risks;

2. The vulnerability and adaptive capacity of Indigenous Communities to climate change;

3. Extreme weather events and emergency management planning for Indigenous communities;

4. Indigenous population movement, displacement, community relocation and severe climate variation; and

5. Climate change adaptation and Indigenous biodiversity management.

About the NetworkThe Adaptation Research Network for Indigenous Communities is part of the Adaptation Research Network for Social, Economic and Institutional Dimensions (SEI-Network) within NCCARF. The Indigenous Communities component of SEI-Network is designed to be interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral, and draw together research on the adaptation needs of Australia’s Indigenous communities. Members include representatives from government, native title representative bodies, Indigenous health providers, universities, Indigenous natural resource management groups, non-government organisations, and other stakeholders. For more information about the Network, please go to www.nccarf.edu.au/social-economic-and-institutional-dimensions

Climate change impacts factsheet:

7. Emergency management

Figure 1:Major insured loss events greater than $100 million in Australia from 1999-2011

2006 Tropical Cyclone Larry $540m2011 Tropical Cyclone Yasi $1090m

Feb 2008 Mackay storms $410m

2010-2011 Queensland flooding $2550m

Nov 2008 Brisbane storms $309m

Feb 2005 Eastern Seaboard storms $217m

Jan 2003 Canberra bushfires $350m

Feb 2009 Victorian bushfires $1070mFeb 2011 Melbourne storms $370m

Mar 2010 Melbourne storms $1044m

Jan 2011 Victorian flooding $104m

Jun 2007 Newcastle & Hunter Valley storms $1480m

Apr 1999 Sydney hailstorms $1700m

Mar 2010 Perth hailstorms $1053m

Cyclone

Flood

Bushfire

Hail

Storm

Sources:1. Risk Frontiers - PerilAUS disaster database2. Insurance Council of Australia - Historical disaster Statistics*Note: costs are in dollars of the day. For normalised losses of 1967-2006 events see: Crompton RP and McAneney KJ, 2008, Normalised Australian insured losses from meteorological hazards: 1967-2006. Environ Science & Policy 11: 371-378.

Dec 2007 Western Sydney hailstorms $415m

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of some extreme climatic events and natural

disasters, including storms, droughts, heatwaves, bushfires and floods. There are varying degrees of uncertainty about projections of increasing severity for specific hazards, from virtually certain for heatwaves to highly uncertain for cyclones. Nevertheless, increasing our resilience and preparedness is likely to be a ‘no-regrets’ option. Emergency management organisations are on society’s frontline in preparing for such events: preventing damage, responding to damage and harm when they occur, and managing recovery. Increasingly, disaster risk reduction (or emergency management) is seen as nearly synonymous with climate change adaptation. It provides the conceptual basis and institutional arrangements to deal with increasing uncertainty and complexity in our weather, and most sectors of society now incorporate emergency management principles and approaches into their adaptation planning.

Present-day climate and emergency managementThe emergency management sector already faces considerable strain from extreme climatic events. Figure 1 shows the distribution of high-cost extreme weather-related events in Australia from 1999 to 2010. In Australia, the sector relies heavily on volunteers and non-government organisations for prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Increasingly, there are attempts to share the risk across Australian society with, for example, media campaigns at the beginning of every fire season encouraging householders to re-visit their bushfire emergency plans.

There are about 500,000 volunteers in the sector, with approximately 350,000 involved in response and recovery. Recent research has found that many volunteers struggle to balance full-time paid work and family responsibilities with higher expectations of training and compliance, as well as emergency callouts. The impacts of climate change will exacerbate the difficulties and increase the stresses on individuals working in the sector. However, increasing levels of risk are not only due to climate change: they may also be the result of socio-economic change, as tree-changers and people seeking cheaper housing move into at-risk areas, and demographic change, in particular an ageing population.

Future climate trendsIncreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, and changes in their location, are expected to place additional strain on emergency services. Our best guess for the future of extremes in Australia due to climate change is: • Heatwaves – high level of certainty of increased

frequency and intensity.• Bushfire danger – strong evidence that south-east

Australia will experience more high fire-risk days, but uncertainty about the magnitude of change.

• Rising sea levels – high level of certainty of sea-level rise resulting from thermal expansion, but rates and extent of rise caused by ice melt uncertain.

• Storm surge – little certainty on changes in extent and frequency due to storm system change, but likely to be exacerbated because of sea-level rise.

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• Rainfall events – high level of agreement that some areas will become drier, while others are likely to experience intensified rainfall events and increased risk of flooding, but uncertainty over which areas will be affected and how.

• Tropical cyclones – considerable uncertainty remains over changes in the location, frequency and severity of tropical cyclones.

• Hail – significant uncertainty over the potential for hail events to increase

In addition to the obvious risks of increasing severity and frequency of extremes, climate change affects the sector in other, less obvious, ways:• It increases the already pervasive uncertainty that

confronts emergency management arising from, among other things, high year-to-year climate variability.

• Gradual changes that alter thresholds may cause smaller climate and weather events to trigger large impacts. For example, gradual drying may result in chronic water deficits for environmental and human needs.

• There is a possibility of non-linear effects, such as the combined impact of extreme drying and higher temperatures on wildfire behaviour.

• An additional risk is the potential for an increase in concurrent events, which may limit the capacity of each jurisdiction to draw on resources from interstate or the region. Equipment and personnel-sharing arrangements between Australia and the United States, for example, may be jeopardised by the increasing overlap of fire seasons.

Social and economic impactsFuture increased risks from climate change will coincide with other pressures on emergency management. Demographic, socio-economic and political factors, such as population growth and residential development, can all influence exposure to climatic hazards. For example, in Victoria the projected 44% population growth by 2036 is largely expected to occur in coastal and inland areas that are potentially at risk from bushfire, flooding and sea-level rise. Growth in high hazard areas is predicted for most Australian states.Vulnerability is shaped by factors that influence individual, collective and organisational capacities to anticipate, prepare, respond and recover from the impacts of hazards. These factors include age, gender, disability, access to information, socio-economic status, capacity to mobilise financial and other resources, and participation in social networks. Elderly people may be particularly vulnerable to increases in the frequency and severity of heatwaves due to limited physiological capacity for heat regulation.

Adaptation: practices, options and barriersStrategies adopted by emergency services to facilitate adaptation include: • mitigating exposure by providing input into land use

planning (strategic and statutory) and construction requirements (e.g. building codes);

• community education and engagement to raise risk-awareness and promote protective action;

• identifying vulnerable locations, groups and individuals who may require assistance; and,

• facilitating and supporting emergency management research.

CostsBoth sudden and slow onset disasters and emergencies impose a large financial burden on Australia and can lead to tragic loss of life. The Queensland and Victoria floods of January 2011 and the ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires of February 2009 cost the nation billions of dollars and, in the case of the floods, led to a nationwide tax levy to repair the damage. At this stage it is not possible to attribute any of this directly to climate change. Attempts to cost adaptation are at an early stage.

About the NetworkThe NCCARF Adaptation Research Network for Emergency Management fosters information exchange and collaboration among researchers, policymakers and practitioners in the sector and seeks to support and facilitate research to inform adaptive responses to climate change. Network membership is open to any individual or organisation with an interest in emergency management, and currently comprises more than 300 researchers, policymakers and practitioners from over 80 organisations. A number of research projects have been funded by NCCARF through the Network. The Network hosts seminars and interactive workshops on topics related to climate change and emergency management. For more information visit the Network website: http://emergencymanagement.org.au

Research prioritiesEmergency management is about dealing with uncertainty, by reducing it where practicable (preventative actions), and having mechanisms to deal with it even where the extent and sources are unknown. Fundamental to achieving these outcomes is enhancing resilience. The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan: Emergency Management identifies four priority research topics to inform adaptation: • Understandingrisk: developing a ‘baseline’

understanding of current risks and considering how climate change may change or create new risks.

• Communityandorganisationalresilience: developing a better understanding of what ‘resilience’ means in a changing climate and the strategies and practices through which resilience can be fostered.

• Adaptivestrategies: considering the strategies required for adaptation in the emergency management sector, including the potential role of the private sector in supporting disaster response initiatives.

• Regionallinkages: the implications of climate change for emergency management in the Asia-Pacific region, in particular how the adaptive capacities of neighbouring countries may impact upon the Australian emergency management systems and services.

Climate change impacts factsheet:

8. Human health

Australians have first-hand knowledge of how the climate can affect our health through the deaths that

occur during heatwaves and floods, and through the mental effects of decade-long droughts on our farming communities. Climate change has the potential to increase these effects, and to introduce new risks that will affect the health of the population and the management and operation of health care institutions. Total expenditure on health accounts for about 9.8% of Australia’s gross domestic product, representing a substantial investment. The health care system needs to be well-prepared and well-adapted to deal with the spectrum of climate change-related health risks.

Climate and human healthAustralia experiences considerable climate variability, with periods of extreme dry weather, heat, drought and flood, all of which can lead to illness, disease, injury and death. The effects of these extremes can be both direct and indirect.Direct effects of extremes include injury and death in floods, and mortality due to heat stress during heatwaves. Indirect effects arise because, for example:• extreme heat and aridity can lead to bushfires, which

can kill and injure, • extreme aridity and high winds can lead to dust storms

that exacerbate respiratory complaints, and,• high temperatures can affect the incidence of

diarrhoeal disease from microbial food-poisoning.

While the health impacts of sudden extreme events in recent years have received high profile attention, nationally we also have increasing concern for the mental health consequences of prolonged drought in rural Australia and its impact on agricultural production, rural livelihoods and community wellbeing and mental health.

Future climate trendsAverage surface air temperature has risen 0.9 °C in Australia over the past 100 years, and there have been changes in the distribution, intensity and seasonality of rain and snowfall across most of the continent. These trends are expected to continue and to be accompanied by increases in the incidence of hot days, reductions in cold days, frosts and snow cover, and a southerly movement of the tracks of tropical cyclones. Increases in the number of extreme heat and extreme fire days have the potential for substantial impacts on human health.

Social and economic impactsPopulation health is critical to the social and economic wellbeing of the country. Increases in disease burden, morbidity and mortality have negative social and economic consequences. Catastrophic events can destroy places and disrupt livelihoods and communities. This may then have long-term mental health consequences for those affected. The people identified as most vulnerable to the health effects of climate change are children, elderly people, Indigenous communities, and people with pre-existing diseases and

Climate change impacts and vulnerabilitiesThe main health risks from climate change derive directly from changes in the occurrence (frequency and severity) of:• Heatwaves. Extreme heat is projected to increase heat-

related deaths and hospitalisation rates, and to reduce quality of life and workforce productivity for people who cannot reduce their heat exposure.

• Extremeweatherevents such as drought, flood and windstorm, leading to more injuries and deaths, and indirect effects such as increased incidence of infectious and contagious diseases and depression (see below).

Indirect effects of climate change derive from weather changes that can lead to:• More outbreaks of climate-sensitive mosquito-borne

infections, such as dengue fever, Ross River fever and Barmah Forest virus disease, due to warmer and wetter conditions, and following flood episodes.

• Effects on air quality, because hotter conditions can create more smog, and drier conditions can cause more particle pollution from fires and dust storms.

• More outbreaks of environmental infectious diseases: » Water-borne disease outbreaks may occur when

flooding affects water purification and sewerage facilities.

» Food-borne disease outbreaks are associated with hotter and more humid conditions.

• Altered food production affecting food pricing and availability. Water shortages will affect food yields, food prices, and food choices in our diet, particularly among low-income groups.

• Social, economic and demographic dislocation, for example during floods. Displacement of communities may lead to stress, tensions and mental health impacts. Declining rural incomes from agricultural production will bring flow-on impacts which may affect quality of life and mental health.

The resulting surge in demand for primary and acute health care will impact on the provision of health services.

disabilities. They will require particular attention in the development of adaptive strategies.

Adaptation: practices, options and barriersAdapting to climate change impacts should be considered in strategic health service planning. The health care system, and the community, need to be prepared to deal with the spectrum of climate change-related health risks. Increases in sickness and disease will place a greater strain on health care services, particularly with an ageing population. Disaster preparedness, and health care surge capacity (the ability to respond adequately to a sudden and unexpected disaster), will be vital for effective responses to extreme weather events. As 90% of Australian people live in cities and large towns, the urban environment is an important determinant of health for most people. There are opportunities to develop the co-benefits for health from adaptation initiatives. For example, improving public transport will reduce carbon emissions, improve air quality, and provide more opportunity for exercise from active modes of transport – walking, cycling and mass transit. Adaptation includes infrastructure planning. Power and water systems must be able to withstand catastrophic events and, where they fail, systems need to be in place to effect repairs quickly. Policymakers should be alert for unintended consequences of adaptation. For example increased use of domestic water tanks in cities and towns has the potential to increase risk from mosquito-borne disease. This is not an argument against distributed water systems; rather it highlights the need for public health perspectives to be considered in climate change adaptation in sectors other than health.

CostsThe costs of preventive health actions are always lower than dealing with the consequences. The same is true for the health effects from climate change. The economic costs of adaptation strategies can be minimised if new approaches are carefully considered and integrated alongside other planned changes.

Source: Ambulance Victoria and January2009HeatwaveinVictoria:anAssessmentofHealthImpacts, State of Victoria 2009.

• January 27-31 2009: maximum temperatures 12-15°C above summer average.

• January 29-30 2009: 60% increase in ambulance call-outs 126 out-of-hospital deaths vs. 44 expected deaths.

Ambulance call-outs for heat-related illnesses in metropolitan Melbourne during the 2009 summer heatwave

Heatwaves, Illness Events and MortalityMelbourne, Australia, 2009

SOURCE: January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts. State of Victoria 2009

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About the NetworkThe Climate Change Adaptation Research Network for Human Health is hosted by the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health at the Australian National University. The Network involves researchers from a range of disciplines – epidemiology, climate science, environmental science, rural and urban studies, sociology, economics, mental health, infectious diseases, physiology, health promotion, health services – and research users from policy, practice, industry and the interested community. Research users are encouraged to help scope and plan research projects, guide research effort, and orient outputs to be useful in decision-making. For more information visit http://www.nccarf.edu.au/humanhealth

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Research prioritiesThe priorities are documented in the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for Human Health. They include:• Community and individual vulnerability to short-term

extremes of heat and the effectiveness of early warning systems.

• Does public education about the risks of extreme events, and their avoidability, alter people’s knowledge and behaviour?

• What are the future risks of arbovirus diseases arising from climate change and can long-term weather forecasting provide useful warnings of vector-borne diseases?

• Where will climate change impacts on food safety and quality be observed and the risks reduced?

• Interventions to minimise adverse mental health effects of natural disasters.

• The impact of climate change and changes in the occurrence of extreme events on Indigenous communities and how community resilience can be increased.

• Models of how health services and infrastructure can both adapt to climate change and assist the community adapt to climate change.

Climate change impacts factsheet:

9. Tourism

I n Australia, tourism contributes around 3.6% of GDP and employs half a million people. Substantial tourism

industries exist in Australia’s major cities, focussing on cultural, educational and food-related activities. Outside cities, natural resources are often the primary attraction; with Tropical North Queensland, the Northern Territory, Australian Alps, Tasmania and south-west Western Australia major tourist destinations. In these areas, tourism is often the major industry. Great Barrier Reef tourism was worth about $AU6 billion in 2005-2006, and the Australian Alps ski industry around AU$900 million in 2005.The tourism industry consists of service providers including food and hospitality, transportation, accommodation, and retail services. Although large international and national companies exist, the Australian industry is dominated by small and medium sized businesses, particularly in regional destinations. These can be a major employer in areas where there are few other jobs. Tourism is a highly responsive and flexible industry, adapting to demand for new destinations, activities and markets. It is also volatile and sensitive to economic, social, ecological and technological changes. Tourism is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Climate and tourismClimate affects when, why, how and where tourists travel. It determines the nature and location of tourism attractions, such as snow, coral reefs and rainforests. It shapes the marketing of many destinations. It shapes tourists’ expectations, experience and memories - affecting

where people return, and where they go next. As a result, the industry is vulnerable to short and long term climate variability and change. Because holidays are an optional expenditure, tourism is sensitive to economic factors: the state of global financial markets, currency values, aviation fuel costs, levels of unemployment and interest rates. Increasingly, tourism is also influenced by marketing of ‘green’ credentials of destinations: ecotourism operators, or the perception of places as clean, green destinations.

Future climate trends Climate models project an overall warming nationally of around 1.0oC up to 2030, relative to 1990. This, together with a 2-5% decline in rain everywhere except the far north, and a decline in snowfalll, will have major implications for tourism. These changes will contribute to an increasing number of dry, hot days, reduced snow cover, slight decreases in relative humidity and increased evapotranspiration. Potential changes in extremes include increased drought risk, an increase in dry fire weather, particularly in south-eastern Australia, and an increased risk of flooding. For coastal areas, climate change is likely to bring rising sea levels, warmer and more acidic oceans, an increase in storm surges, and increased windstorm occurrence.

Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities The vulnerability of tourism sectors and destinations will depend on the nature of the climate change impact. For example, the three most vulnerable ecosystems in Australia to climate change are: Kakadu, due to seawater inundation linked to sea-level rise; the Great Barrier Reef, due to warmer sea temperatures and ocean acidification; and the Australian Alps, due to reduced snow cover. These are all areas of high conservation value and major tourism destinations. Tourism is particularly vulnerable to increases in occurrence of extreme events such as droughts, bushfires, cyclones and floods. These lead to dramatic declines in visitation at the time of and immediately following the disaster, as demonstrated by reduced tourist numbers to Queensland after the flood and cyclone events of the 2010/2011 summer. They also have longer term impacts as a result of damage to tourism related infrastructure, and more broadly through media coverage of the disaster changing the perceptions of potential visitors. A short term ‘benefit’ of climate change is the ‘last chance to see tourism’ marketing of destinations likely to be adversely affected by climate change. This strategy is already being discussed for destinations such as the Great Barrier Reef.

Modelling indicates that adaptation strategies such as snow making may be successful in the short term, but that increased costs of energy and water are likely to impose economic and physical limitations in the longer term.

Image: Ruth Allison

Social and-economic impacts Climate change will most adversely affect destinations strongly reliant on tourism (particularly where there are few other industries) and where the tourist attraction is likely to be strongly impacted. The Australian Alps is one of the most economically vulnerable destinations in Australia, as winter snow sports tourism is already being adversely affected by the decreasing duration and depth of snow cover. Although other exposed tourist industries exist, e.g., in tropical north Queensland, they appear less economically vulnerable because industries such as mining, construction and agriculture also play a major role in the regional economy.Tourism is sensitive to mitigation strategies. Tourism-related transport (particularly air travel) contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, tourism is vulnerable to cost increases due to policies to reduce emissions, such as carbon pricing or trading schemes, as well as tourists’ desire to reduce their contribution to climate change. Tourism in Australia is particularly sensitive as it is a long haul destination for most international visitors, and even domestic tourists often travel significant distances to reach their destinations.

Adaptation: practices, options and barriers Tourism operators can reduce dependence on climate-sensitive inputs such as energy and water by increasing the fuel efficiency of transport, increasing the use of low emissions energy in accommodation, and reducing water use. These approaches address mitigation and adaptation by reducing emissions and costs, enhancing green credentials and decreasing vulnerability.Adapting to changes in extreme events includes changing the ways tourism infrastructure is built to minimise risks from flooding, windstorm damage, droughts and bushfires. Changes will be needed to ensure continued functioning of infrastructure that supports tourism, such as water and energy supply and sewerage facilities, roads, bridges, harbours and railways. Extreme events threaten the viability of tourism destinations due to the cost of replacing infrastructure, loss of income, increased insurance costs or inability to insure. Tourism destinations will need to weather-proof core activities. This may involve diversifying away from reliance on natural attractions towards built facilities and social activities. For some destinations, it may involve directly addressing the physical impacts of climate change, such as the use of snow making by the ski industry. For destinations where nature-based tourism is important, adaption can involve increasing

the environmental resilience of ecosystems or adapting marketing to the changing nature of the ecosystem. Barriers to adaptation include an unwillingness to recognise the reality of climate change, the lack of a sense of urgency, and a lack of recognition of the likely local impacts. Climate change may be viewed as a problem that is the responsibility of those at higher levels of government or the industry to address. Finally, the industry perceives a need for more detailed local information on climate change and its impacts, especially extreme events, as a basis for adaptation decisions.

Costs There are potentially very high costs associated with climate change impacts, and mitigation and adaptation responses by the Australian tourism industry. Few studies compare the costs of impacts with those of adaptation strategies for tourism destinations nationally and internationally. One exception is snow-based tourism, where modelling indicates that adaptation strategies such as snow making may be successful in the short term, but that increased costs of energy and water are likely to impose economic and physical limitations in the longer term, particularly for lower-altitude resorts.

About the NetworkClimate change adaptation activities in the tourism industry are undertaken by the Adaptation Research Network for Social, Economic and Institutional Dimensions. The network is hosted by the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute at the University of Melbourne and brings together researchers, practitioners and decision-makers from universities, government, the private sector and civil society. For more see www.nccarf.edu.au/social-economic-and-institutional-dimensions

www.nccarf.edu.au

Image: Masao MutohA short term ‘benefit’ of climate change is the ‘last chance to see tourism’ marketing of destinations likely to be adversely affected by climate change... such as the Great Barrier Reef.

Research priorities Currently only about 2% of academic tourism research internationally examines climate change in terms of mitigation or adaptation, despite it being identified as the major threat to the tourism industry in the 21st century. Research has focused on a limited range of sectors and locations, principally ski resorts in Europe and North America. In Australia, there is increasing social, economic, physical and environmental research into adaptation, but large gaps remain in the knowledge available to government and industry to support decision making.