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Measuring Progress:Measuring Progress: Monitoring and Evaluation in WRIA 8Monitoring and Evaluation in WRIA 8
WRIA 8 WRIA 8 Salmon Salmon
Recovery Recovery CouncilCouncil
November 19, 2009November 19, 2009
Scott Stolnack
WRIA 8 Technical Coordinator
22
Purpose of this Purpose of this presentation:presentation:
Update SRC on the overall Update SRC on the overall framework of monitoring in WRIA 8framework of monitoring in WRIA 8
What we monitor and whyWhat we monitor and why How it all fits togetherHow it all fits together
Introduce how this information Introduce how this information can be used to help define our can be used to help define our future course (“adaptive future course (“adaptive management”)management”)
33
Why Monitor?Why Monitor?
44
Why Monitor?Why Monitor?
Science-based Chinook Science-based Chinook Conservation Plan Conservation Plan requires monitoring:requires monitoring:
Measure and document progress toward Measure and document progress toward salmon recovery and habitat restoration goalssalmon recovery and habitat restoration goals
Assure $$ is spent on actions that make a Assure $$ is spent on actions that make a differencedifference
Provide information to guide course Provide information to guide course corrections, if (when) neededcorrections, if (when) needed
55
What do we need to know?What do we need to know?
Is the watershed producing more or less Chinook? Is the watershed producing more or less Chinook? (“Fish in/Fish Out” Status and Trends Monitoring)(“Fish in/Fish Out” Status and Trends Monitoring)
Are watershed conditions improving or declining? Are watershed conditions improving or declining? (Habitat Status and Trends Monitoring)(Habitat Status and Trends Monitoring)
Are we doing what we said we’d do? Are we doing what we said we’d do? (Implementation Monitoring)(Implementation Monitoring)
Is what we said we’d do, doing what we said it Is what we said we’d do, doing what we said it would? (Effectiveness Monitoring)would? (Effectiveness Monitoring)
66
77
“Fish In”
“Fish Out”Is the watershed producing more or less Chinook? (“Fish in/Fish Out” Status and Trends Monitoring)
88
Fish In (Adults)Fish In (Adults)
Live Counts
Redd Surveys
Sockeye
Chinook
99Photo: H. Berge
1010
1111
Estimated Chinook Salmon Countat Ballard Locks, 1995 to 2009
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Est
imat
ed c
um
ula
tive
pas
sag
e at
L
ock
s
15 year average
Fish In – How Many?Fish In – How Many?
1212
Fish In – How Many?Fish In – How Many?
Cedar River Chinook Redds Above and Below Landsburg Dam
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Re
dd
s
Below Dam
Above Dam
2009
~30010-year average
1313WDFW
Fish Out (Smolt trapping)Fish Out (Smolt trapping)
1414WDFW
Fish Out (Smolt trapping)Fish Out (Smolt trapping)
1515
Juvenile production is basically what Juvenile production is basically what the WRIA is responsible for. This is the WRIA is responsible for. This is how we can tell how we’re doing. how we can tell how we’re doing. Everything else is needed to be able Everything else is needed to be able to reliably track this knowledge.to reliably track this knowledge.
1616
Fish Out (PIT Tagging)Fish Out (PIT Tagging)
WDFW
1717
“Fish In”
“Fish Out”
1818
Are watershed conditions improving or declining? (Habitat Status and Trends Monitoring)
1919
Field Assessments
2020
Field Assessments
Physical Characteristics
Pools
Channel substrate
Wood
Channel sinuosity
Riparian Vegetation
Etc.
2121
Pools
Large wood
Channel sinuosity
Riparian cover
etc.
Chinook Productivity
Field Assessments
2222
Field Assessments
Biological Characteristics
Fish community composition
Insect community composition
2323
Field Assessments
Objective is to describe current Objective is to describe current STATUSSTATUS and detect and detect TRENDSTRENDS over time over time
Stream surveys begun 2009Stream surveys begun 2009 Funded through 2010Funded through 2010 Cedar River survey scheduled for 2010 Cedar River survey scheduled for 2010
(King County)(King County)
Seeking EPA funding to continue this work Seeking EPA funding to continue this work beyond 2010beyond 2010
2424
Land Cover Change
Overall guidelines:Overall guidelines:
Adapt existing sources of Adapt existing sources of information where information where appropriateappropriate
Focus on highest priority Focus on highest priority areas firstareas first
2525
Use existing data sources to supplement local information
2626
Take existing Take existing change change analysis…analysis…
Land Cover Change
2727
Isolate forest Isolate forest cover change…cover change…
Focus in on Focus in on most crucial most crucial areas for a areas for a closer lookcloser look
Land Cover Change
2828
Land Cover Change
Analysis is just beginning using NOAA Analysis is just beginning using NOAA change classification and 2006 change classification and 2006 satellite photossatellite photos
Funded by a grant from the EPA Funded by a grant from the EPA through the Puget Sound Partnershipthrough the Puget Sound Partnership
2929
Are watershed conditions improving or declining? (Habitat Status and Trends Monitoring)
3030
Development alters watershed Development alters watershed hydrology (runoff intensity and hydrology (runoff intensity and timing)timing)
Affects worsened by poor riparian Affects worsened by poor riparian conditionsconditions
Trends over time revealTrends over time revealchanging watershed changing watershed conditionsconditions
Flow Characteristics
3131
Existing gauge data needs to be Existing gauge data needs to be analyzed for trendsanalyzed for trends Winter high flows – higher highs?Winter high flows – higher highs? Summer low flows – lower lows?Summer low flows – lower lows? Changes in overall timing?Changes in overall timing? Create predictive computer models for Create predictive computer models for
places without flow gaugesplaces without flow gauges Seeking funding through EPA grantSeeking funding through EPA grant
Flow Characteristics
3232
• Are we doing what we said we’d do?
(Implementation Monitoring)
• Is what we said we’d do, doing what we said it would? (Effectiveness Monitoring)
3333
Implementation MonitoringImplementation Monitoring
Habitat Work Habitat Work ScheduleSchedule
Metrics Metrics under under developmentdevelopment
Projects
3434
Limiting Factors
3535
Implementation MonitoringImplementation MonitoringSpatial component – Cedar River
(example)
3636
Implementation MonitoringImplementation Monitoring
ProgramsPercent of Land Area Impacted by
Existing Low Impact Development (LID) Regulations (as a Component of Stormwater Regulations)
87%
10%3%
Yes
No
no answer
Implementation Survey
3737
Are our actions having the desired effect? Do levee setbacks increase juvenile
survival rates? Do LID programs reduce stormwater
runoff? Does outreach program X result in
behavior change in population Y?
Effectiveness MonitoringEffectiveness Monitoring
3838
Are our actions having the desired effect? Least-developed at this time Capacity issues have prevented us
from addressing up to now Regional issue (e.g., SRFB) Some questions are beyond the scope
of WRIA 8 Technical Committee will discuss in
December
Effectiveness MonitoringEffectiveness Monitoring
3939
Adaptive ManagementAdaptive Management
Plan, Decide
Implement
Monitor
Assess
4040
Adaptive ManagementAdaptive Management
Is the sum of our actions having the Is the sum of our actions having the desired effect?desired effect?
If not, what are we going to do about If not, what are we going to do about it?it?
4141
Adaptive ManagementAdaptive Management
Regional assistance is planned for early Regional assistance is planned for early 20102010
Will tie entire monitoring framework to Will tie entire monitoring framework to course-correction frameworkcourse-correction framework
SRC will be involved SRC will be involved Through staff on Implementation CommitteeThrough staff on Implementation Committee Through direct reporting via these meetingsThrough direct reporting via these meetings
4242
Questions?Questions?