1 MISSION ANALYSIS OVERVIEW Maj Tom Woods Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC) Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)

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MISSION ANALYSIS MISSION ANALYSIS OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

Maj Tom WoodsMaj Tom Woods

Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)

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Discuss techniques and procedures for Discuss techniques and procedures for conducting an operational level mission conducting an operational level mission analysis for Coalition Task Force (CTF) analysis for Coalition Task Force (CTF) operations operations

First step of Commander’s First step of Commander’s Estimate processEstimate process

Operational level (includes Operational level (includes strategic military and politico-strategic military and politico-military objectives)military objectives)

PURPOSEPURPOSE

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REFERENCESREFERENCES

JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint OperationsJP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint Operations

JP 5-00.2 CTF Planning Guidance & JP 5-00.2 CTF Planning Guidance & ProceduresProcedures

CJCSM 3500.05 CTF HQ CJCSM 3500.05 CTF HQ Master Training Guide Master Training Guide

DCTFAC

HANDBOOK

DJTFAC HandbookDJTFAC Handbook

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VCOA Decision

VCOA Decision

IVCOA Comparison

IVCOA Comparison

IIICOA Analysis

IIICOA Analysis

IICOA Development

IICOA Development

IMission Analysis

IMission Analysis

Commander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate Process

Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning Process

WARNORDWARNORD EXORDEXORD

ISituation

Development

IICrisis

Assessment

IIICOA

Development

IVCOA

Selection

VExecutionPlanning

VI

Execution

MISSION ANALYSIS IN CONTEXTMISSION ANALYSIS IN CONTEXT

ALERTORDALERTORDand/orand/or

PLANORDPLANORD

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MISSION ANALYSIS OBJECTIVESMISSION ANALYSIS OBJECTIVES

UNDERSTAND THE STRATEGIC AND UNDERSTAND THE STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL SITUATIONSOPERATIONAL SITUATIONS

UNDERSTAND SSC’S INTENT & CONCEPTUNDERSTAND SSC’S INTENT & CONCEPT

DEVELOP TASKSDEVELOP TASKS

DEVELOP CTF MISSION STATEMENTDEVELOP CTF MISSION STATEMENT

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MISSION ANALYSIS TASK STEPSMISSION ANALYSIS TASK STEPS

1.1. Determine known factsDetermine known facts 2.2. Develop assumptionsDevelop assumptions

3.3. Analyze CINC’s mission & intentAnalyze CINC’s mission & intent 4.4. Determine limitationsDetermine limitations 5.5. Determine COGs / Decisive PointsDetermine COGs / Decisive Points

6.6. Identify operational-level tasksIdentify operational-level tasks 7.7. Initial CTF force structure analysisInitial CTF force structure analysis 8.8. Initial risk assessmentInitial risk assessment

9.9. Determine military end stateDetermine military end state10.10. Develop mission statementDevelop mission statement

11.11. Prepare mission analysis brief Prepare mission analysis brief

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C-4C-4StaffStaffC-4C-4StaffStaff


C-6C-6StaffStaff

PAPAStaffStaffPAPAStaffStaff

SJASJAStaffStaffSJASJAStaffStaff

MedicalMedicalStaffStaff

MedicalMedicalStaffStaff

CTFCTFComponentsComponents

CTFCTFComponentsComponents




C-3

Rep

sC

-3 R

eps

C-5 RepsC-5 Reps

C-6 Reps

C-6 Reps

C-4 Reps

C-4 Reps

PA

Reps

PA

Reps

SJA R

eps

SJA R

eps

Med Reps

Med Reps

LNOsLNOs

C-2 R

eps

C-2 R

epsC-1 Reps

C-1 Reps

OPTOPT

Deployment CellIO

Ce

ll IM C

ell

Orders Cell

CPGCPG

The PlayersThe Players

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1. DETERMINE FACTS1. DETERMINE FACTS

What does the Coalition Task Force (CTF) What does the Coalition Task Force (CTF) know about the current status and know about the current status and

conditions?conditions? Command and Control (C2) Intelligence Command and Control (C2) Intelligence

Support Element (ISE) in coordination with Support Element (ISE) in coordination with other staff sections, conducts Intelligence other staff sections, conducts Intelligence Preparation of Battlespace (IPB)Preparation of Battlespace (IPB)– Define battlespace environmentDefine battlespace environment– Describe the battlespace’s effectsDescribe the battlespace’s effects– Evaluate the threatEvaluate the threat

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What does the CTF know about the current status and What does the CTF know about the current status and conditions?conditions?

Coalition Planning Group (CPG) provides to the rest of the staff:Coalition Planning Group (CPG) provides to the rest of the staff:– Supported Strategic Commander’s (SSC’s) mission, intent, and Supported Strategic Commander’s (SSC’s) mission, intent, and

CONOPSCONOPS– Forces available, readiness status of CTF forcesForces available, readiness status of CTF forces– Review lift priority and lift allocationReview lift priority and lift allocation– Other forces available, organizations / multinationalOther forces available, organizations / multinational– Political situation (Host nation, friendly/foreign gov’t)Political situation (Host nation, friendly/foreign gov’t)– Time analysisTime analysis

Balance desire for detailed planning against the need for speed and allocating Balance desire for detailed planning against the need for speed and allocating time for component planningtime for component planning

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TIME ANALYSISTIME ANALYSIS

Develop a timeline to focus the staffDevelop a timeline to focus the staff

CTF Planning Process (Days / Weeks)CTF Planning Process (Days / Weeks)

C-DayC-Day D-DayD-Day

Mission Analysis (Hours)Mission Analysis (Hours)

SSC’sSSC’sW/OW/O

ReceivedReceived

TaskTaskAnalysisAnalysis

Assumptions,Assumptions,Risks,Risks,

LimitationsLimitations

RestatedRestatedMissionMission

MissionMissionAnalysisAnalysis

BriefBrief

Planning Events (Days / Hours)Planning Events (Days / Hours)

SSC’s SSC’s W/OW/O

ReceivedReceived

MissionMissionAnalysisAnalysis

BriefBrief

COACOADecisionDecision

BriefBrief

CDR’sCDR’sEstimateEstimate

BriefBrief

OPORDOPORDIssuedIssued

SSC’sSSC’sWarning/Order (W/O)Warning/Order (W/O)

IssuedIssued

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What does the CTF know about the current What does the CTF know about the current status and conditions?status and conditions?

CTF StaffCTF Staff– Contribute to IPB DevelopmentContribute to IPB Development– Provide staff input to CPGProvide staff input to CPG

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2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS

Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to continue planningcontinue planning

Assumptions replace missing or unknown factsAssumptions replace missing or unknown facts Must be valid (logical, realistic) and necessary Must be valid (logical, realistic) and necessary

(essential for planning to continue)(essential for planning to continue) Don’t assume away enemy capabilitiesDon’t assume away enemy capabilities Must be reassessed continuallyMust be reassessed continually

Litmus TestLitmus Test: If an assumption proves false, the plan could be : If an assumption proves false, the plan could be invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should not be an invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should not be an assumption.assumption.

Litmus TestLitmus Test: If an assumption proves false, the plan could be : If an assumption proves false, the plan could be invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should not be an invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should not be an assumption.assumption.

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2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS

Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to continue planningcontinue planning

CPG disseminates facts & assumptions, and should CPG disseminates facts & assumptions, and should considerconsider– Support from other government and civilian agenciesSupport from other government and civilian agencies– Availability of and support requirements for host nation or Availability of and support requirements for host nation or

multinational forcesmultinational forces– Projection of the end stateProjection of the end state– Available timeAvailable time– Political situation of countries proximate to COAPolitical situation of countries proximate to COA

CTF staff sections determine assumptions from their CTF staff sections determine assumptions from their analysis; provide input to CPG via their representativeanalysis; provide input to CPG via their representative

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3. ANALYZE SSC’s 3. ANALYZE SSC’s MISSION & INTENTMISSION & INTENT

Analyze Mission & Intent Analyze Mission & Intent understandingunderstanding all all information in the CINC’s planning directiveinformation in the CINC’s planning directive

Understand SSC’s mission (understand the WHY Understand SSC’s mission (understand the WHY of the mission)of the mission)

Understand CTF’s role in SSC’s intent and Understand CTF’s role in SSC’s intent and concept of operationsconcept of operations

Understand SSC’s plan for information Understand SSC’s plan for information operations / warfare (IO/IW)operations / warfare (IO/IW)

Need clarification? Ask Need clarification? Ask the SSC’s staff!the SSC’s staff!

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4. DETERMINE LIMITATIONS4. DETERMINE LIMITATIONS

Constraints, restraints and Constraints, restraints and other limitations on the CTFother limitations on the CTF

Restrictions placed on the CTFRestrictions placed on the CTF– Constraints: required actions (must do) that limit freedom of Constraints: required actions (must do) that limit freedom of

actionaction e.g., conduct air strikes with a specific period of timee.g., conduct air strikes with a specific period of time

– Restraints: prohibited actions (must not do)Restraints: prohibited actions (must not do) e.g., cannot pursue enemy across a certain bordere.g., cannot pursue enemy across a certain border

May be imposed by HHQ or by circumstancesMay be imposed by HHQ or by circumstances CTF staff sections determine limitations from their own CTF staff sections determine limitations from their own

perspective; provide to CPGperspective; provide to CPG CPG determines overall limitations and disseminates themCPG determines overall limitations and disseminates them

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5. DETERMINE CENTERS OF 5. DETERMINE CENTERS OF GRAVITY / DECISIVE POINTSGRAVITY / DECISIVE POINTS

Analyze both friendly, enemy COGs to determine strengths Analyze both friendly, enemy COGs to determine strengths and weaknessesand weaknesses

COGs are “those characteristics, capabilities, or COGs are “those characteristics, capabilities, or locations from which a military force derives its locations from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight.” freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight.”

-- JP 3-0-- JP 3-0

– Enemy COGs developed by CPG / C2Enemy COGs developed by CPG / C2

– Friendly COGs developed by CPGFriendly COGs developed by CPG

– COGs at Strategic, Operational, Tactical levelsCOGs at Strategic, Operational, Tactical levels

– Decisive Points usually “geographic in nature Decisive Points usually “geographic in nature . . . and are the keys to attacking protected COGs.”. . . and are the keys to attacking protected COGs.”

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6. IDENTIFY OPERATIONAL 6. IDENTIFY OPERATIONAL LEVEL TASKSLEVEL TASKS

Identify tasks in terms of Identify tasks in terms of Specified, Implied, and Essential TasksSpecified, Implied, and Essential Tasks

List specified tasksList specified tasks– Stated in SSC’s order, usually paras 2 & 3Stated in SSC’s order, usually paras 2 & 3

Develop implied tasksDevelop implied tasks– Not specifically assigned, but must be accomplishedNot specifically assigned, but must be accomplished

Determine essential tasksDetermine essential tasks– Those tasks which define successThose tasks which define success

CTF staff sections determine tasks and provide input to CTF staff sections determine tasks and provide input to CPGCPG

CPG determines overall tasks and disseminatesCPG determines overall tasks and disseminates

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TasksTasks

SpecifiedSpecified

ImpliedImplied

EssentialEssential

(1) Conduct needs assessment(1) Conduct needs assessment(2) Deploy forces(2) Deploy forces(3) Provide HA/DR support to host nation(3) Provide HA/DR support to host nation

(1) Coordinate with NGOs & IOs(1) Coordinate with NGOs & IOs(2) Provide force protection(2) Provide force protection

(1) Deploy forces(1) Deploy forces(2) Provide HA/DR support to host nation(2) Provide HA/DR support to host nation(3) Provide force protection(3) Provide force protection

TASK ANALYSIS WORKSHEET TASK ANALYSIS WORKSHEET

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xx

xx

xx

xxxx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

TASK Army Navy AF Marines SOFTASK Army Navy AF Marines SOF

1. Initial Assessment1. Initial Assessment

2. Coordinate w/ NGOs2. Coordinate w/ NGOs

3. Port security3. Port security

4. Provide security for camps4. Provide security for camps5. Provide temporary shelter5. Provide temporary shelter

6. Provide ground transport6. Provide ground transport

7. Distribute food & water7. Distribute food & water

8. Provide air traffic control8. Provide air traffic control

All specified and implied All specified and implied tasks should be assigned to tasks should be assigned to

a CTF organizationa CTF organization

TASK ASSIGNMENT MATRIX TASK ASSIGNMENT MATRIX

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7. INITIAL CTF FORCE 7. INITIAL CTF FORCE STRUCTURE ANALYSISSTRUCTURE ANALYSIS

What has the SSC provided? Are theyWhat has the SSC provided? Are theysufficient to accomplish essential tasks?sufficient to accomplish essential tasks?

Review forces provided by SSC for planningReview forces provided by SSC for planning– LocationsLocations– Status of reserve forces and time they’re availableStatus of reserve forces and time they’re available

Determine broad force structure and Determine broad force structure and capabilities necessary to accomplish taskscapabilities necessary to accomplish tasks– Component LNOs / planners crucial hereComponent LNOs / planners crucial here

Identify shortfallsIdentify shortfalls

More specific force requirements will be determined More specific force requirements will be determined after COA Development & COA Analysisafter COA Development & COA Analysis

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8. INITIAL RISK ASSESSMENT8. INITIAL RISK ASSESSMENT

What are the mission accomplishment What are the mission accomplishment and force protection risks?and force protection risks?

May be risks associated withMay be risks associated with– Mission (risks the SSC/CCTF is willing to take in order to Mission (risks the SSC/CCTF is willing to take in order to

accomplish mission)accomplish mission)– Force Protection (e.g., casualties, fratricide, terrorist threat)Force Protection (e.g., casualties, fratricide, terrorist threat)– Time available as provided by SSC’s limitationsTime available as provided by SSC’s limitations

SSC’s risk tolerance might be stated or impliedSSC’s risk tolerance might be stated or implied CTF staff sections determine risks from their perspective; CTF staff sections determine risks from their perspective;

provide to CPGprovide to CPG CPG determines overall risks, considers mitigation CPG determines overall risks, considers mitigation

methods, disseminates to staffmethods, disseminates to staff

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9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE

What are the conditions that define success / What are the conditions that define success / termination of operationstermination of operations

Strategic End State conditionsStrategic End State conditions– Returning to state of peace & stabilityReturning to state of peace & stability– May include diplomatic, economic, military, May include diplomatic, economic, military,

informational conditionsinformational conditions Operational (military) End State conditionsOperational (military) End State conditions

– Transition from predominant use of military to other Transition from predominant use of military to other instruments of national powerinstruments of national power

Focus on Focus on OperationalOperational (military) end state (military) end state conditions!conditions!

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9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE

What are the conditions that define success / termination of What are the conditions that define success / termination of operationsoperations

End state basic principlesEnd state basic principles– Conditions contribute to end of combat on terms Conditions contribute to end of combat on terms

favorable to coalition/multinational partnersfavorable to coalition/multinational partners– Gain control over enemy’s capabilitiesGain control over enemy’s capabilities– Control defined by CTF’s ability to impose its will on Control defined by CTF’s ability to impose its will on

enemy, and preventing enemy from renewing conflictenemy, and preventing enemy from renewing conflict Describe and record end state conditionsDescribe and record end state conditions

– In terms of enemy’s capabilitiesIn terms of enemy’s capabilities– In terms of friendly capabilitiesIn terms of friendly capabilities

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10. DEVELOP MISSION STATEMENT10. DEVELOP MISSION STATEMENT

Consider essential tasks; describe the Consider essential tasks; describe the WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE, and WHYWHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE, and WHY

““When directed, CTF Huimang will provide initialWhen directed, CTF Huimang will provide initialHA/DR and conduct emergency infrastructureHA/DR and conduct emergency infrastructurerepair within the AO in order to alleviate humanrepair within the AO in order to alleviate humansuffering and create an environment enabling suffering and create an environment enabling the transition to civil authority”the transition to civil authority”

EXAMPLE:EXAMPLE:

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11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF 11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF

CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTFCPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF

Chief of Staff (COS) or

C5 / C3 Purpose & Agenda Area of Operations

C2 Initial Intel situation Elements of IPB

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C5 / C3 SSC’s mission,

intent, CONOPS Forces available Assumptions Limitations

COGs/Decisive Pts Tasks

– Specified– Implied– Essential

Initial Force Structure Risk Assessment

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C5 / C3 End State Proposed Mission

Statement Time analysis

– projected planning milestones

C1 Facts, assumptions,

conclusions Personnel actions Personnel services Other personnel related

support

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conclusions Supply Services, Health Svc Transportation Others


conclusions

OTHERS As appropriate to the

mission

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Common understanding of the problem Common understanding of the problem and the missionand the mission

CTF restated mission CTF restated mission Commander’s guidance & approval to Commander’s guidance & approval to

continue planningcontinue planning

MISSION ANALYSIS END STATE MISSION ANALYSIS END STATE

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MISSION ANALYSISMISSION ANALYSISTASK STEPSTASK STEPS

1.1. Determine known factsDetermine known facts 2.2. Develop assumptionsDevelop assumptions

3.3. Analyze SSC’s mission & intentAnalyze SSC’s mission & intent 4.4. Determine limitationsDetermine limitations 5.5. Determine COGs / Decisive PointsDetermine COGs / Decisive Points

6.6. Identify operational-level tasksIdentify operational-level tasks 7.7. Initial CTF force structure analysisInitial CTF force structure analysis 8.8. Initial risk assessmentInitial risk assessment

9.9. Determine military end stateDetermine military end state10.10. Develop mission statementDevelop mission statement

11.11. Prepare mission analysis brief Prepare mission analysis brief

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VCOA Decision

VCOA Decision

IVCOA Comparison

IVCOA Comparison

IIICOA Analysis

IIICOA Analysis

IICOA Development

IICOA Development

IMission Analysis

IMission Analysis

Commander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate Process

Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning Process

WARNORDWARNORD EXORDEXORD

ISituation

Development

IICrisis

Assessment

IIICOA

Development

IVCOA

Selection

VExecutionPlanning

VI

Execution

Mission Analysis in ContextMission Analysis in Context

ALERTORDALERTORDand/orand/or

PLANORDPLANORD

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MISSION ANALYSIS MISSION ANALYSIS OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)

QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?

Documents

1 MISSION ANALYSIS OVERVIEW Maj Tom Woods Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC) Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)