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MODEL ACADEMIC CURRICULUM

MODULE 14

Challenges and Future Considerations for Implementing Successful POP Projects

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Module 14 Topics

• Time - The 4th (Missing) Dimension of the Problem Analysis Triangle

• Barriers to Implementation

• Shifting and Sharing Responsibility for Public Safety Problems

• Some Major Impediments to Further POP Implementation and Progress

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Time:The 4th (missing) Dimension

of the Problem Analysis Triangle

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Analyzing Crime Patterns

• Crime is not distributed randomly over place/time

• Effective and efficient deployment requires data on the distribution of police workload

• To maximize effectiveness and efficiency, police data systems need to capture data that enable them to recognize concentrations in crime

• Those concentrations can include offenders, victims, places and times.

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Repeat Times

• Many offense types have a temporal signature.

• Violent crime increases when kids are in school, but property crime decreases.

• Residential burglars ply their trade when the legitimate workforce leaves their homes to go to work.

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Repeat Times

• These temporal signatures can occur by the hour, day, week, month, or year.

• One way to detect outbreaks of violence is to put in place early detection systems that track sudden increases above the “normal” amount of crime.

• Effective analysis of crime patterns means understanding the “rhythm” of the offense over time.

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Hypothetical Community with Four Police Precincts

Percent of Violent Crime in Each Precinct

Northwest50%

Northeast20%

Southwest20%

Southeast10%

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“Temporal Signature” of Crime

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2-Hour Time Blocks

% o

f D

aily

Off

ense

s

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Making Deployment Decisions

• The Northwest precinct has 50% of the violent crime, so it gets 500 officers (1,000 x 50%).

• The Northeast and Southwest precincts each have 20% of the violent crime, so they should each get 200 officers.

• The Southeast precinct has 10% of the violent crime, so it should get 100 officers.

Based on 1,000 officers and three shifts

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Making Deployment Decisions by Shifts

• 35% of violent crime takes place on the midnight shift (12-8).

• 20% takes place on the day shift (8-4).

• 45% takes place on the evening shift (4-12).

• The Northwest precinct has 500 officers.

• Its midnight shift has 35% of the violent crime, so it gets 175 officers.

• Its day shift has 20%, so it gets 100 officers.

• Its evening shift has 45%, so it gets 225 officers.

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Overall Deployment PictureNorthwestTotal: 500 officersMidnight: 175 officersDay: 100 officersEvening: 225 officers

NortheastTotal: 200 officersMidnight: 70 officersDay: 40 officersEvening: 90 officers

SouthwestTotal: 200 officersMidnight: 70 officersDay: 40 officersEvening: 90 officers

SoutheastTotal: 100 officersMidnight: 35 officersDay: 20 officersEvening: 45 officers

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Observations from this Example

• Had we ignored spatial and temporal patterns and deployed evenly, each shift in each precinct would have received about 83 officers.

• The evening shift in Northwest would have had just over one-third of the officers it would get based on workload.

• All three shifts in Southeast would have been significantly over-policed.

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Observations from this Example

• Ignoring data on crime patterns over place and time results in significant costs in both efficiency and effectiveness.

• This example is purposely simplistic and meant to illustrate the importance of tracking crime times and patterns; it ignores a number of factors, including what the police do once they are deployed.

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Barriers to Implementation

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Reasons Why Problem-Solving Initiatives Can Fail

• The problem was inaccurately identified.

• The problem was insufficiently or inadequately analyzed.

• The developed responses were improperly or insufficiently implemented.

• The problem was properly identified and analyzed and responses were implemented, but they did not have the desired effect.

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Reasons for Implementation Failures

• Characteristics, skills and actions of project managers

• Resources

• Support/cooperation external to the police

• Evidence

• Complexity of implementation

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Characteristics, Skills and Actions of Project Managers

• Leadership at or near the level of the principal project agents

• Personal support and involvement of high-ranking police executives

• Continuity of project leadership and management

• Ownership of the initiative

• Effective communication of policy objectives and directives to those responsible for implementation

• Professional capabilities of key individuals

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Resources

• Sufficiency of legal and organizational authority

• Availability and flexibility of sufficient resources

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Support and Cooperation External to the Police Agency

• Grass roots community support

• Supportive media coverage

• Existence of organizations with the capacity and mandate to implement responses

• Fortuitous timing

• Congruence of perspectives and objectives

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Evidence

• Adequacy of hard data support and…

• effective communication of the evidence to key decision makers

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Complexity of Implementation

• Ease of implementation

• Absence of delays

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Shifting and Sharing Responsibility for

Public Safety Problems

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• Educating Victims and Offenders

• Making a Straightforward Informal Request

• Making a Targeted Confrontational Request

• Engaging Another Existing Service Agency

• Pressing for the Creation of a New Organization

Methods for Shifting and Sharing Responsibility

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• Shaming Delinquent Parties

• Withdrawing Police Services

• Charging Fees for Police Services

• Pressing for Legislation

• Bringing Civil Action

Methods for Shifting and Sharing Responsibility

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• Measuring the Effectiveness of New Responses

• Determining the Appropriate Degree of Pressure to Shift Responsibility

Considerations for Shifting and Sharing Responsibility

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• The justification for the pressure in the first instance, including the cost to the police and to the community of maintaining the status quo

• The reasonableness of police requests, including the standards of proof police must carry to establish such reasonableness

• The probability that a new set of responses to the problem will have long-term preventive value;

Determining Appropriate Pressure

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• The likelihood that key constituents will endorse or accept the new proposals, which is influenced by the complexity of the issue at hand.

• The nature, degree, and consequences of resisting police attempts to share or shift responsibility, including the potential risks and costs to the police organization and its officials for pressing controversial proposals.

Determining Appropriate Pressure

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Barriers to POP Implementation

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Five Main Obstacles to Response Implementation

1) Unanticipated technical difficulties

2) Inadequate supervision of implementation

3) Failure to coordinate action among different agencies

4) Competing priorities

5) Unanticipated Costs

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Some Final Major Impediments to Further Development of POP

1. The absence of a long-term commitment on the part of police leaders to strengthening policing and the police as an institution.

2. The lack of skills within a police agency that are required to analyze problems and to evaluate strategies for dealing with those problems.

3. The lack of a clear academic connection.

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Some Final Major Impediments to Further Development of POP

3. Absence of informed outside pressures

4. The lack of financial support

5. Lack of adequate infrastructure

6. Slowed inertia or competing demands.

7. Lack of training, rewards, and/or supervision.