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Navy Aviation Navy Aviation Building the Future FleetBuilding the Future Fleet

RDML Michael Manazir (N880) Head, Aviation Programs

NDIA Defense Forum March 12, 2010

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AV-AV-Weapon and Relayed LOS C2 / Data via Directional LPI

Anti-Access Network Stubs

AV-AV-Weapon and Relayed LOS C2 / Data via Directional LPI

Anti-Access Network Stubs

BLOS C2 / Data between AVs / CV / CAOC via Wideband SATCOM;

Bandwidth / Transmissions restricted in AOR

BLOS C2 / Data between AVs / CV / CAOC via Wideband SATCOM;

Bandwidth / Transmissions restricted in AOR

Tanker / UCAS Local Mesh EMCON NetworkTanker / UCAS Local

Mesh EMCON Network

CCA Ops with Mesh EMCON NetworkSupporting ADMACS, JPALS Connections

CCA Ops with Mesh EMCON NetworkSupporting ADMACS, JPALS Connections

F-35F-35

Aerial RefuelingAerial Refueling

JFACC/CAOCJFACC/CAOC

Carrier Strike Group

Carrier Strike Group

CV-Based Mission Control Element

CV-Based Mission Control Element

E-2E-2

BAMSBAMS

USAF deep attack forcesUSAF deep

attack forces

Ground Forces/SOFGround Forces/SOF

Relayed SATCOM and LOS to Directional Anti-Access Network

Stubs via UCAS, E-2, OG, BAMS, etc

Relayed SATCOM and LOS to Directional Anti-Access Network

Stubs via UCAS, E-2, OG, BAMS, etc

THE BATTLE SPACE

NAVAIR Public Release 08-624. Distribution Statement A – “Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited.”

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BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

• Trends in the “cost to own and operate” the fleet point to an unaffordable future

• Every one of us must proactively drive to continuously reduce total life cycle costs

Operational concepts should inform design & integration of ship hull, weapons, and communications systems, mission modules, manning and training plans, and infrastructure requirements. We must understand how these factors individually, and as a whole, impact the cost of our Surface Fleet.

- CNO letter of 3 Aug 09

Today’s fiscal environment demands that every dollar invested in sustaining today’s Navy & building tomorrow’s

Navy be spent effectively and efficientlySource: N4B Navy Readiness Overview Brief dated 2 February 2010, Mr. Pat Tamburrino

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FEDERAL BUDGET 1962-2015

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Discretionary Defense

Discretionary Non-Defense

Medicare Medicaid

Social Security

Veterans’ Benefits

Interest

Projection

2010-2015

TY

$ in

B Defense Budget 2010 ~$719 B

19% of Total Budget

Defense Budget 2010 ~$719 B

19% of Total Budget

Federal Budget* 2010 ~$3700 B

Federal Budget* 2010 ~$3700 B

Source: OMB Historical Tables

*Doesn't include undistributed offsets

2009 Stimulus Package

2009 Stimulus Package

5

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974 TQ

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974 TQ

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY62FY64

FY66FY68

FY70FY72

FY74FY76

FY78FY80

FY82FY84

FY86FY88

FY90FY92

FY94FY96

FY98FY00

FY02FY04

FY06FY08

FY10

DEFENSE BUDGET BROKEN OUT BY SERVICE1962-2010

TY

$ in

B

TY

$ i

n B

FEDERAL BUDGET 1962-2015

Defense Budget

Army

Navy/USMC

Air Force

OSD

Source: National Defense Budget Estimates 2009 – Green Book, June 2009

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NAE BUDGET PRESSURES

Reduced Top Line Due to OCO Budget Transition

APN

RDTE

SCN

OPN OMN

WPN

PANMCMILCON

TY

$(B

)

- Fact of Life

- Change Proposals

TOC is critical to controlling our costs so that we can afford future war fighting systems

Top Line Pressures will cause cuts in RDTE and APN accounts

- Other Corporate Bills

MPN

- RMD adjustments

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AIRCRAFT TOTAL OWNERSHIP/ LIFE CYCLE COST COMPOSITION

TOTAL OWNERSHIP COST

FLYAWAY COST

WEAPON SYSTEM COST

PROCUREMENT COST

ACQUISITION COST

LIFE CYCLE COST

RECURRING FLYAWAY

• Management• Hardware• ECOs

PLUS• Non- recurring• Ancillary Equip

PLUS• Tech Data• Pubs• CSS• Support

Equip• Training

Equip• Factory

Training

PLUS• Initial

Spares

PLUS• RDT&E• Facility

Construc-tion

PLUS• Operating

& Support (Includes Operating Production Support)

• Disposal

PLUS• Common

Spares/ Support Items

• Infrastruc-ture Cost for Planning, Managing, Operating, and Executing

• Linked Indirect Costs

• Modification Improve-ments

Reducing TOC is a major initiative within the Navy

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NAVAL AVIATION TYPICALLIFE CYCLE COST DISTRIBUTION

R&D PRODUCTION O&S

10%

46%44%

CONCEPTREFINE-

MENT

TECHDEV

PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT OPERATION & SUPPORTENG AND MFG DEV

(EMD)

A B C

DESIGN INFLUENCES TO REDUCE TOC (INCLUDINGPRODUCTION AND O&S) COST

DEVELOP BUSINESS MODEL FOR SUPPORT STRATEGY (INCLUDING PBL)

Ability to reduce/ influence TOC (including production and O&S) costs decreases over time

PERCENTAGES BASED ON CARRIER AIR WING STUDY– STUDY COVERED 50 YEAR CYCLE– ASSUMED 75 AIRCRAFT WING MAKE UP– 25 YEAR LIFE CYCLE– REPLACEMENT AIRCRAFT DEVELOPED & FIELDED AFTER 25 YEARS

NOTE: PERCENTS VARY BY T/M/S BUT ARE GENERALLY ARE IN THE RANGE SHOWN ABOVE

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PROGRAM DEFINITION UNCERTAINTY vs. TIME

Ability to influence TOC reduces over time

Pre Systems AcquisitionPre Systems Acquisition Systems Acquisition Sustainment

Concept Refinement

Concept Refinement

Systems Development& Demonstration

Production & Deployment Operations & SupportA B C IOC FOC Disposal

Cos

t, T

echn

ical

, an

d P

rogr

amm

atic

Unc

erta

inty

10% Development 46% Production 44% O&S

70-75% OF COST DECISION HAVE BEEN MADE

85% OF COST DECISIONS MADE

90-95% OF COST DECISIONS MADE

95% OF COST DECISIONS MADE

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FUTURE CARRIER AIR WING

NOTIONAL CVW OF THE FUTURE COMPRISED OF:

• 44 STRIKE FIGHTER (F/A-18, JSF) AIRCRAFT

• 5 EA-18G AIRBORNE ELECTRONIC ATTACK (AEA) AIRCRAFT

• 5 E-2D ADVANCED HAWKEYE AIRCRAFT

• 19 MH-60R/S HELOS (11 ON THE CARRIER/8 DISPERSED THROUGH THE CSG)

• 2 CARRIER ONBOARD DELIVERY (COD) AIRCRAFT AUGMENT THE ENTIRE CSG

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3 PRIMARY TOC CHALLENGES

1. Life Cycle Costs are set early– Understanding and influencing the cost drivers are essential

– Need to increase the focus on TOC at every decision point

2. The majority of the 2020 Battle Force exists today– Platforms must achieve their expected service life

– 222 of today's 285 ships are required in 2020

3. Life cycle costs of next generation systems must be more fully understood

– Increased fidelity of sustainment strategies is essential

– The F-35 challenge is representative of the future

Think strategically about how to reduce the cost of doing business without compromising warfighting effectiveness

Source: N4B Navy Readiness Overview Brief dated 2 February 2010, Mr. Pat Tamburrino

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WAY AHEAD

• Think well past the POM/PR…Create and exploit every opportunity to reduce cost

• Develop Catalog of Initiatives that Reduce TOC – Build base of unfunded affordability initiatives

with ROI potential

• Develop TOC Performance Capture Methodology– Identify data sources with fidelity to facilitate

senior leadership decision making

Source: N4B Navy Readiness Overview Brief dated 2 February 2010, Mr. Pat Tamburrino

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DISCUSSION