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Official Statistics in Times of Crisis

Walter RadermacherEurostat

Walter Radermacher 2

Role and objectives of official statistics

Sufficient advanced warning: lessons to be learnt Monitoring of the impacts on economy, society and

environment Monitoring of political responses and their impacts

Foresee and mitigate a possible crisis and support the treatment of damages by means of high quality statistical information and excellent communication

Walter Radermacher 3

Complex reality: theory, data, policy

Behind the crisis:– Globalised information society: A conflict between

over-information and under-capacities => misuse of information, wrong expectations, missing awareness for risks/fuzzyness

– Reductionism in economic theory (micro based, linear, uncritical believe in availability of data, theory not falsifiable )

– A “golden veal” in statistics: coherence + speed (fitness for purpose of scientific and political users)

A need for:– Globalised macroeconomic theory– More reliability, multidimensional figures (incoherence!),

structural information, de-acceleration, quality checks– Comparability of statistical products and services on a global

level as well as for large geopolitical zones– Corporate communication of complexity

Walter Radermacher 4

Special questions

Independence of statistics Differentials between financial sphere and “real

economy”– Treatment of quality in price and volume measures – Integration of financial services within the production

boundary Off-balance sheet items Valuation

– “Market Price” and “Fair Value” principles– Stocks vs. flows

Walter Radermacher 5

Monitoring of the impacts

New pressures vs. old constraints– Critical resource situation in statistical services (particularly

in their laboratories and communication branches)– “More speed!” = more modelling = less quality

Multidimensional statistical information – Non-monetary indicators, satellite accounts– Focussed presentation of relevant indicators– A modern approach to communication (interactive tools,

WEB2.0 services, open platforms, …), – Courageous explanation of shortcomings, “granulation”, … – International comparability of communication– An aggregate of wealth / balance sheet accounts?

Walter Radermacher 6

Further needs to adjust the revision of the SNA?

AEG Nov 2008:– In principle “no”; 2008 SNA gives comprehensive

guidance– Only some minor clarifications needed

• Purchases of governments of “toxic assets”• Nationalisation of a bank by government• Injections of funds by means of preference shares• Government guarantees in return to a fee

High Level Forum Nov 2008: choice between imputed vs. observable transactions!!

Private accounting principles!!

Walter Radermacher 7

GDP and beyond: satellite accounting

Sustainable (constraints) development (objective) with three pillars (economic, social and environmental aspects):

– SNA = central framework– Interconnected satellite accounts– Resource allocation for both types of domains– Indicators, accounting and basic information with complementary

characteristics and quality profiles Agreement on indicator set, e.g. starting with

– Growth of quarterly GDP, Inflation– Interest rates– Trade balance of goods and services– General Government: deficit + debt + follow-up of rescue money – Short term and structural business statistics, industrial production index,

orders in strategic industries (cars, construction) in months– Prices of strategic goods (energy, raw materials)– Social statistics: unemployment rates, index of poverty

Walter Radermacher 8

Proposal for the next steps

Now: Exchange of information about ongoing work: extend the format and platform of the informal conference, e.g. – Action plan of the European Statistical System (at

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=3273,75548807&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL#5) )

– CMFB analysis

Short term: Extend the reflections of the High Level Group Medium term: a group should ensure the link between private

and national accounting Long-term: improve cooperation between NSIs on a global

level, world national accounts and accounts for large geopolitical zones

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Thanks for your attention

walter.radermacher@ec.europa.eu