1 Pavlodar Region The region is located in the north of the country. As of January 1, 2012, the area is 124.8 thousand square kilometers, the region's

1

Pavlodar Region• The region is located in the north of the country. As of January 1, 2012, the area is 124.8 thousand square kilometers, the region's population is 747.1 thousand people. Density of population over the region for 1 km area is 6.0 people.• Resource base includes rich deposits of coal, different metals, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, barite, building materials and etc.• Administrative-territorial structure of the region includes 10 districts and 3 cities of regional subordination. Regional center is Pavlodar.• The main socio-economic indicators of the region in 2011 are provided in the table.

1

Demography : Region's population fell till 2006, thereafter it grew gradually. Population in 2000 was 791 thousand people, at the beginning of 2012 – 747 thousand people:

As of January 1, 2012Area, thousand square kilometers 124.8 4.6 Share in total RK area, %

Density for 1 square kilometer 6.0 6.1 Index level in RK

Population, thousand people 747.1 4.5Share in total RK

population, %

2011

Economically active population 441.1 5.0 Share in total RK EAP, %

employed 418.2 5.0 Share in RK index, %

hired labor 321.0 5.8 Share in RK index, %

unemployed 22.9 4.8 Share in RK index, %

Monthly average nominal salary, Tenge 75338 90028 Index level in RK

Nominal population income (estimation), average per capita a month, Tenge 46837 45435

Index level in RK

Compared to previous year in % 119.2 117.2 Level in RK

GRP, billion Tenge 1379.8 5.0 Share in total RK GRP, %

CPI (end of period), by December of previous year in % 107.3 107.4

Index level in RK

Volume of industrial product, billion Tenge 964.7 6.1 Share in RK index, %

Agriculture total output (services), billion Tenge 94.5 4.1

Share in RK index, %

Fixed asset investment, billion Tenge 208.0 4.2 Share in RK index, %

Retail trade, billion Tenge 186.3 4.8 Share in total RK index, %740

750

760

770

780

790

800791

772

758

749

745 744 743 745 746 742 744746

747

Th

ou

san

d p

eo

ple

2

The number of employed population increases and unemployed population falls in both absolute and relative terms. For 10 years, from 2001 to 2011, the employed population increased from 91 to 95%, while the number of unemployed people fell from 9 to 5%.

Characteristic feature of the employed population dynamics is the growth of hired labor and the reduction of self-employed people. From 2001 to 2011 the number of hired labor increased from 57% to 77%, the number of self-employed people fell from 43 to 3%. EAP structure corresponds to the medium level in Kazakhstan:

Структура занятого населения в 2001г.Структура занятого населения в 2011г.

EAP has been increasing since 2006, despite the region’s population decrease, and in 2011 it was 441.1 thousand people, however, didn’t reach the level of 2001 (449.9 thousand people). 418.2 thousand people of them are employed, 22.9 thousand people are unemployed. Economically inactive population is falling and makes up 160.5 thousand people, it is below the level of 2000:

Labor Force

thousand people

Economically

inactive populatio

n

Economically active population Including:

Unemploy

ed

Employed including:

Hired labor

Self-employed

2001 153 449.9 41.4 408.5 233.2 175.32002 159.9 408 35.4 372.7 229.9 142.82003 173.5 410,7 33.9 376.8 238.8 137.92004 183.8 407.4 31.6 375.8 261.9 1142005 193.8 402.2 30.5 371.7 272.6 99.12006 188 408.9 30.2 378.7 283.2 95.52007 181.7 419 29.0 390.0 295.3 94.72008 170.7 431.7 27.5 404.3 304.7 99.62009 169.9 433.5 27.6 405.9 309.4 96.52010 163.7 440.7 24.8 415.9 315 100.92011 160.5 441.1 22.9 418.2 321 97.2

5%

95%

EAP Structure in 2011

77%

23%

Employed Population Structure in 2011

Economically active population (EAP)

57%43%

Employed Population Structure in 2001

Hired labor

Self-em-ployed

9%

91%

EAP Structure in 2001

Unem-ployed

Employed

3

Unemployment Level

The changes of employed population structure are supported by a strong tendency of unemployment rate reduction from 13.8% in 2000 to 5.2% in 2011 and an increase in economic activity of the population:

• In 2011 unemployment rate of the region was below the average in Kazakhstan – 5.4%:

Акмолинская

Актюбинская

Алматинская

Атырауская

Западно-Казахстанская

Жамбылская

Карагандинская

Костанайская

Кызылординская

Мангистауская

Южно-Казахстанская

Павлодарская

Северо-Казахстанская

Восточно-Казахстанская

Астана

Алматы

4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6

5.5

4.9

5.1

5

5.3

5.5

5.3

5.4

5.55.8

5.7

5.2

5.4

5.2

5.85.6

%

Kazakhstan – 5.4

City of Almaty

City of Astana

East Kazakhstan

North Kazakhstan

Pavlodar

South Kazakhstan

Mangistau

Kyzylorda

Kostanay

Karaganda

Zhambyl

West Kazakhstan

Atyrau

Almaty

Aktobe

Akmola

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201165

67

69

71

73

75

77

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

69 75 72 70 69 68 69 70 72 72 73 73

13.8

9.28.7 8.2

7.77.6 7.4

6.96.4 6.4

5.65.2

Economic activity rate, % Unemployment rate, %

4

Quality of Life

Cost of living has been growing steadily since 2003, but the values are below the average in RK:

Share of population with income used for consumption below the poverty line is decreasing. Values are below the average in RK:

Life expectancy at birth is increasing, but the dynamic values are below the average in Kazakhstan in general:

Some life quality indicators in 2011:

Pavlodar region RK

Child mortality for 1000 quick-born 13,51 14,84

Maternal mortality for 100,000 quick-born

7,8 17,4

Number of TB cases registered for the first time, 100,000

91,1 86.8

Birth rate for 1000 people 17,27 22,50

Mortality for 1000 people 11,00 8,71

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

6,398 6,7177,562 7,954

8,881

11,09911,29312,173

14,860

6,457 6,7857,618

8,4109,653

12,36412,660

13,48716,072

Pavlodar region RK

Mo

nth

ly a

ve

rag

e in

te

ng

e

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

33.3

43.3

24 23.420.3

12 8.3 8.86.20657711903659

4 4.5

46.744.5

37.533.9

31.6

18.2

12.712.1016691

9575118.208060730160326.5 5.3

Pavlodar region RK

%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

62.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

66.0

67.0

68.0

69.0

70.0

64.8 65.065.7 65.7 65.8 65.6 65.1 65.7

66.567.9 67.8 68.2

65.5 65.866.0

65.866.2 65.9 66.2

66.367.1

68.3 68.4 69.0

Pavlodar region RK

nu

mb

er

of

years

5

Enrollment share of the population aged 6-24 years has increased from 2001, however, it’s below the average in RK:

Enrollment

The number of students in technical and vocational education was increasing up to 2007, thereafter it started decreasing despite the growth of region’s population:

The number of children in regular preschools has increased since 2001:

The number of students in higher education is not stable and it has decreased since 2009, despite the growth of region’s population:

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

20,151

15,548

17,07716,967

17,887

13,88212,079

22,288

21,75521,195

3.9 3.9

2.4 2.3 2.2 2.31.9 1.9

3.73.5

3.4

Pavlodar region Share in RK

%

peo

ple

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

23,19429,358

33,010

34,989

35,796

36,311

34,354

32,100

30,053

29,445

8.28.5 8.4

7.5 7.06.4

6.05.6

5.35.0 4.9

Pavlodar region

%

peo

ple

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8

8.2

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

10 660 11 181

12 344

13 236

15 031 16 753

17 990

20 120 31 479

34 472

7.6

7.17.1

7.37.1

7.2 7.2

7.0

7.3

8.1

7.0

Pavlodar region

%

peo

ple

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

64666870727476788082

7476.6 78

80.5 79.877.3

73 71.6 70.2 71.5 72.2

72.5

75.476.9 78.7

78.9 78.277.3

75.4 74.972.9 73.6

Pavlodar region RK

%

6

Population Income

Monthly average nominal salary per employee for 2011 is 75,338 Tenge, which is below the country’s average – 90,028 Tenge:















г. Астана

г. Алматы

0 50000 100000 150000 200000

64495

79878

67638165975

87503

61825

77940

67252

81518

151041

67721

753386171273677

132612

121674

Тенге

Kazakhstan – 90,028

City of Almaty

City of Astana

East Kazakhstan

North Kazakhstan

Pavlodar

South Kazakhstan

Mangistau

Kyzylorda

Kostanay

Karaganda

Zhambyl

West Kazakhstan

Atyrau

Almaty

Aktobe

Akmola

In the dynamics the average nominal salary per employee and the average nominal income per capita are ever-growing.

The index of the nominal and real incomes showed a decline during the economic crisis in 2009. At that time the growth of nominal income was lower than the consumer price index, i.e. revenue growth did not cover inflation:

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201180

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

103.2 105.6 106106.8 107.1 107.8

117.4

109.8 105.5107.6 107.3

115.7112.9

115.9121.9

111.0

117.3

130.5

148.7

101.8

110.7

125.0

108.1108.6

109.7

114.7

103.2109 118.6

126.838546568132

95.187475956338

103.463547325939

116.000920010289

Consumer price index The index of nominal income

The index of real income

%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

17631196952180126872

3106236882

46296.5283010566

52227.256113.3

64954.6

75338.4

8656 9773 1132713808153261797823455

34866.6343820507

35478.6873953235

39277.0341205544

41238

The average nominal salary per employee, tenge The average nominal income per capita, tenge

Ten

ge

7

Economy•Despite GRP growth, EKR share in

total GRP of all the regions has decreased from 6.4 % in 2000 to 5.5% in 2011 in the total gross regional product:

• However, GRP growth in 2011 is above the average growth of total GRP of all regions of Kazakhstan and makes up 148% compared to 2010, against the total value of RK - 126.4%:















г. Астана

г. Алматы

-10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150

138.1

125.9

124.9

121.2

126.2

142.1

128.0

132.5

120.4

117.9

125.1

148.0

143.0

130.6

117.9

124.8

% compared to previous year

Growth of total GRP in RK – 126.4

City of Almaty

City of Astana

East Kazakhstan

North Kazakhstan

Pavlodar

South Kazakhstan

Mangistau

Kyzylorda

Kostanay

Karaganda

Zhambyl

West Kazakhstan

Atyrau

Almaty

Aktobe

Akmola

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

168 204216 269

334 384462

592

862

8631,032

1,527

6.46.3

5.7

5.85.7

5.1

4.54.6

5.4

5.1

4.7

5.5

GRP Region's share in total GRP

bln

. te

ng

e

reg

ion

's s

hare

in

to

tal

GR

P (

%)

8

Investment

•Fixed assets investment tends to a stable significant growth:

•The growth of fixed assets investment in 2011 has exceeded the total level in RK regions and made up 112% compared to the previous year, against 107.7% in general in RK:















г.Астана

г.Алматы

0 50 100 150 200

114.9

105.9

121.6

97.4

73.0

72.6

119.9

124.7

89.9

99.3

104.0

112.0

134.7

167.0

144.3

104.3

% compared to previous year

Growth in Kazakhstan in general – 107.7

City of Almaty

City of Astana

East Kazakhstan

North Kazakhstan

Pavlodar

South Kazakhstan

Mangistau

Kyzylorda

Kostanay

Karaganda

Zhambyl

West Kazakhstan

Atyrau

Almaty

Aktobe

Akmola

•The share of fixed assets investment of the region shows little growth since 2008 and made up 4.1% in 2011:

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-

1

2

3

4

5

4.1

2.8

1.92.5 2.4 2.6

4.23.8

3.5 3.64.0 4.1

%

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020110

50

100

150

200

250

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

25 27 21 33 4164

120 130148

166185

208

596943 1,100

1,3281,704

2,4212,825

3,392

4,2114,5854,654

5,010

Pavlodar region RK

bln

. te

ng

e

9

Agriculture The volume of agriculture production

increased until 2009 and decreased in 2010 to 60.7 billion Tenge:















г. Астана

г. Алматы

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

7.5

5.7

15.1

1.3

3.7

4.7

5.8

14.8

3.1

0.3

11.4

4.2

11.6

10.6

0.1

0.1

% of total

City of Almaty

City of Astana

East Kazakhstan

North Kazakhstan

Pavlodar

South Kazakhstan

Mangistau

Kyzylorda

Kostanay

Karaganda

Zhambyl

West Kazakhstan

Atyrau

Almaty

Aktobe

Akmola

• The share of the region’s volume of production in agriculture in total Kazakhstan’s volume of industry’s production. In 2010 4.2% of country’s agricultural production was manufactured in the region:

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

16.4

27.3 25.633.5 36.3

34.7

47.348.9

77.6

60.7

402.0

533.6557.4

615.4698.9

763.8825.6

1,089.4

1,404.5

1,641.4

1,442.6

Pavlodar region RK

bln

. te

ng

e

10

Real Sector The growth of industrial production volumes was observed

throughout the study period, excluding crisis year 2009, when manufacturing volumes showed a decrease:

• The share of industrial production in the Kazakhstan’s level fell from 7.3% in 2000 to 6.1% in 2011:

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

11.3 12.111.3

15.4 11.8 14.813.0

1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9

17.9 17.820.6

23.9 24.0

7.3 7.2 6.8 7.2 6.8 5.9 5.5 6.07.0 6.0 7.0

6.1

bil

lio

n T

en

ge

Million

Tenge

Share in RK level

2010

Share in GRP

Metallurgic industry and production of finished metal

products428 750 25.4 41.6

Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water

201 029 23.9 19.5

Coal and lignite mining 72 523 55.5 7.0

Agriculture 60 690 4.2 5.9

Construction 56 847 2.9 5.5

Machine industry 48 319 12.8 4.7

Production of food products, beverages and tobacco

42 633 4.7 4.1

Coke industry and refined petroleum products

19 733 5.9 1.9

Production of other non-metallic mineral products

11 611 5.7 1.1

Production of finished metal products other than machine

and equipment11 463 12.0 1.1

•Real sector industries showing the highest values of production in 2010 are metallurgic industry and production of finished metal products, production and distribution of electricity, coal and lignite mining, agriculture, machine industry, etc. These industries have significant share of total production in the Republic of Kazakhstan and region’s GRP:

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

137 185333

517 347568

624

29 70 75 9050 68139

201 251130.9 144.8158.7

204.6 261.7308.1

359.0468.3

715.2

550.9

844.0964.7

Mining industry outputManufacturing output Electricity, gas and water production and distribution Industrial production

bln

. te

ng

e

11

• The number of industrial enterprises has increased since 2000:

• The number of construction companies is increasing:

• The number of working agricultural enterprises and their share in Kazakhstan’s level is not stable:

Sector Enterprises

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

0123456789

685 696 699836 803

883 884 872 863 865 904

5 5 5

76

7 7 77

88


un

its

%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

204 219 227 254 277 297329 345

390

54

4 4 44

54

5


un

its

%

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

0

50

100

150

200

250

1

2

3

4

5

151 147 165 173 162 168 159 149 144 137

192 176

3.23.0

3.6

3.9

3.6

3.43.0 2.8 2.8 2.5

3.0 2.8


un

its %

12

Small and Medium Business

• The number of registered legal entities as of October 1, 2012 is 12 665. The SME number is 12 561. The structure of the enterprises number is close to the RK average level:

• SME share of the region's GRP grows, but it is lower than the average level in RK:

ВКО

РК

95%

4% 1%

RK

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

17.418.4

20.5

13.818.3

25.0

20.4

20.3 18.9 19.7

30.4 31.633.4

27.6

Pavlodar region RK%

94%

5%

1%

Pavlodar region

Small

Medium

Large

13

Interbudgetary Relations

ReceivablesCosts and financing

Deficit (-), surplus (+)

2000 12981 12549 432

2001 18337 16952 1385

2002 18864 19584 -720

2003 22043 21615 428

2004 26776 27714 -938

2005 32570 33598 -1028

2006 44743 42674 2070

2007 60248 59266 982

2008 70367 69443 923

2009 85286 85258 28

2010 88057 85922 2136

2011 103749 100706 3043

NameCash

executionMillion Tenge

Revenues 103 749.2 including income transfers 51 414.7Expenses 100 706.1 including transfers 1 632.8Budget deficit (surplus) 3 043.2

Budget revenues of Pavlodar region in 2011 amounted to 103.8 trillion Tenge, including 51.4 trillion Tenge of transfers from the national budget. Expenses amounted to 100.7 trillion Tenge, including 1.6 trillion Tenge of transfers to the national budget. Thus, the region is subventional:

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

432

1385

-720

428

-938 -1028

2070

981.6 923.1

27.6

2135.5

3043.1

Revenues Expenses and credits Deficit (-), surplus (+)

Mil

lio

n T

en

ge

14

Pavlodar Region Development Program for 2011-2015

Main target indicators:

GRP increase in real terms by 32.4% in 2015 compared to 2009; An increase of the manufacturing industry share in GRP up to 32%; An increase of labor productivity in the manufacturing industry by1.6 times in 2015; An increase of investments in the non-primary sectors of the economy at least by 11.5% in 2015; An increase of the share of non-resource exports in total exports to 57% in 2015; An increase of GVA of metallurgic industry based on deep processing of mineral raw materials and

creating new processing by 1 .9 times in 2015; An increase of labor productivity in the metallurgical industry at least by 1.7 times in 2015; An increase of exports of metallurgic products by1.7 times in 2015; An increase of coal production to 90.1 million tons; An increase of the production of chemical products in value terms by 7.2 times in 2015; GVA growth in machine industry by 77% in 2015; An increase of labor productivity in the machine industry to 52.4 thousand dollars per person per

year in 2015; An increase of oil refining in real terms by 1.4 times in 2015 ; An increase of GVA in the construction industry by 1.4 times in 2015 ; Reduction of GRP energy intensity at least to 10% from the level at 2008; An increase of the local content share in the procurement of governmental agencies and

organizations, strategic enterprises - for the procurement of goods to 60%, services - to 90%; An increase of labor productivity in the agricultural sector at least by2 times by 2015; Life expectancy of the population in 2015 - 70.4 years; Reduction in overall mortality to 8.5 per 1,000 people of the population in 2015 ; Reduction of unemployment in the open labor market to 5.5%; Reduction of the share of population with income below the minimum cost of living to 4.7%.

Documents

1 Pavlodar Region The region is located in the north of the country. As of January 1, 2012, the area is 124.8 thousand square kilometers, the region's