1° PERIODIC ACTIVITY REPORT M1-M12 - needs-project.org Report Year… · INTEGRATED PROJECT Priority 6.1: Sustainable Energy Systems and, more specifically, Sub-priority 6.1.3.2.5:

SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME

Project no: 502687

NEEDS New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability

INTEGRATED PROJECT

Priority 6.1: Sustainable Energy Systems and, more specifically,

Sub-priority 6.1.3.2.5: Socio-economic tools and concepts for energy strategy.

1° PERIODIC ACTIVITY REPORT

M1-M12 Due date of deliverable: 31 August 2005 Actual submission date: 15 October 2005 Start date of project: 1 September 2004 Duration: 48 months Lead Contractor: ISIS – Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

PUBLISHABLE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 1 1 SECTION 1 – PROJECT OBJECTIVES AND MAJOR ACHIEVEMENTS DURING THE REPORTING

PERIOD.................................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.1 PROJECT OVERVIEW AND OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................... 5

1.1.1 Overall objectives of the IP......................................................................................................................... 5 1.1.2 The IP structure .......................................................................................................................................... 6

1.2 RESEARCH STREAMS’ OBJECTIVES & ACHIEVEMENTS...................................................................................... 7 1.2.1 RS Integration Objectives & Achievements ................................................................................................ 7 1.2.2 RS 1a Objectives & Achievements .............................................................................................................. 9 1.2.3 RS 1b Objectives & Achievements ............................................................................................................ 10 1.2.4 RS 1c Objectives & Achievements ............................................................................................................ 11 1.2.5 RS 2a Objectives & Achievements ............................................................................................................ 13 1.2.6 RS 2b Objectives & Achievements ............................................................................................................ 16 1.2.7 RS 3b Objectives & Achievements ............................................................................................................ 18

2 SECTION 2 – RESEARCH STREAMS PROGRESS OF THE PERIOD...................................................... 20 2.1 RS INTEGRATION............................................................................................................................................. 20

2.1.1 Workpackages Progress............................................................................................................................ 20 2.1.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones.......................................................................................................... 30

2.2 RS 1A: LIFE CYCLE APPROACHES TO ASSESS EMERGING ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES ........................................... 32 2.2.1 Workpackages Progress............................................................................................................................ 32 2.2.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones.......................................................................................................... 57

2.3 RS1B: DEVELOPMENT AND IMPROVEMENT OF A METHODOLOGY TO ESTIMATE EXTERNAL COSTS OF ENERGY ...................................................................................................................................................... 58

2.3.1 Workpackages Progress............................................................................................................................ 58 2.3.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones.......................................................................................................... 69

2.4 RS 1C: NEW EXTERNALITIES ASSOCIATED TO THE EXTRACTION AND TRANSPORT OF ENERGY...................... 71 2.4.1 Workpackages progress ............................................................................................................................ 71 2.4.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones.......................................................................................................... 81

2.5 RS 1D: EXTENSION OF GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE.......................................................................................... 83 2.6 RS 2A: ENERGY SYSTEMS MODELLING AND INTERNALISATION STRATEGIES, INCLUDING

SCENARIOS BUILDING ...................................................................................................................................... 84 2.6.1 Workpackages Progress............................................................................................................................ 84 2.6.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones.......................................................................................................... 99

2.7 RS2B: ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP AND STAKEHOLDERS PERSPECTIVE ................................................ 101 2.7.1 Workpackages Progress.......................................................................................................................... 101 2.7.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones........................................................................................................ 114

2.8 RS 3A: TRANSFERABILITY AND GENERALISATION ........................................................................................ 116 2.9 RS 3B: DISSEMINATION AND COMMUNICATION ............................................................................................ 116

2.9.1 Workpackages Progress.......................................................................................................................... 116 2.9.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones........................................................................................................ 118

3 SECTION 3 – CONSORTIUM MANAGEMENT.......................................................................................... 120 3.1 CONSORTIUM MANAGEMENT TASKS AND THEIR ACHIEVEMENT..................................................................... 120 3.2 CONTRACTORS .............................................................................................................................................. 122 3.3 PROJECT TIMETABLE AND STATUS ................................................................................................................. 122 3.4 COORDINATION ACTIVITIES ........................................................................................................................... 126

3.4.1 Communication between partners .......................................................................................................... 126 3.4.2 Project meetings ..................................................................................................................................... 127 3.4.3 Possible co-operation with other projects/programmes etc.................................................................... 128

ANNEX 1– PLAN FOR USING AND DISSEMINATING THE KNOWLEDGE.................................................. 129 ANNEX 2– COMPLETE LIST OF DELIVERABLES............................................................................................. 133

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Publishable Executive Summary Objectives of the NEEDS Integrated Project The NEEDS IP addresses Priority 6.1 of the 6th RTD Framework Programme of the EU: Sustainable Energy Systems and, more specifically, Sub-priority 6.1.3.2.5: Socio-economic tools and concepts for energy strategy.

The ultimate objective of NEEDS is to evaluate the full costs and benefits (i.e. direct + external) of energy policies and of future energy systems, both at the level of individual countries and for the enlarged EU as a whole.

From the scientific and technological viewpoint, this entails major advancements in the current state of knowledge in the following main areas of:

• Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of energy technologies • Monetary valuation of externalities associated to energy production, transport, conversion and use • Integration of LCA and externalities information into policy formulation and scenario building

An additional, important goal is to increase awareness, acceptability and actual use of externality data in policy formulation, calling for dedicated efforts in assessing stakeholders perceptions, facilitating the access to usable externality data, disseminating and communicating results to all involved stakeholders.

The NEEDS consortium The consortium includes 66 partners (of which some 15% are SMEs), representing 26 Countries (12 EU Member States, 9 NAS, 3 Mediterranean Countries, and 2 Countries from other parts of the World). It presents a balanced mix of Universities, Research Institutions (both public and private), Industry, NGOs. Most leading institutions in the area of energy externalities research are represented. NEEDS is coordinated by the Italian research and consultancy firm ISIS (Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi - Rome, Italy – www.isis-it.com). Mr Andrea Ricci is the IP coordinator ([email protected]). The IP is built as a series of “streams”, each addressing a specific area of research. Innovation and S&T advancements lie both within each stream and in their overall integration. According to their specific objectives and area of research, the streams can be grouped in three main “blocks”. The first block corresponds to new developments, updating, enhancement of the current state of the art in the field of energy externalities and includes the following research streams (RS):

1a LCA of new energy technologies 1b New and improved methods to estimate the external costs of energy conversion 1c Externalities associated to the extraction and transport of energy 1d Extension of the geographical coverage of the current knowledge of energy externalities

The second block addresses long term strategies and includes the two following streams: 2a Modelling internalisation strategies, including scenario building 2b Energy Technology Roadmap and Stakeholder Perspectives

The third block focuses on providing input to policy making, dissemination and other communication issues, and includes the following two streams:

3a Transferability and generalisation 3b Dissemination/communication

As for the Integration Stream, it ensures that all interlinkages between research activities are fully recognised, their design continuously validated and enhanced, and their implementation appropriately carried out.

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http://www.isis-it.com/

mailto:[email protected]

1c Externalities associated

to extraction and transport

of energy

1b New and improved

methods to estimate external

costs

1a LCA/costs of

new technologies

3a Transferability

& generalisation

2a Modelling

internalisation strategies and

scenario building

3b Communication

& Dissemination

2b Stakeholders acceptability and assessment & Energy technology roadmap and forecast

1d Extension of geographical coverage

The IP management is ensured through a multi layered organisational structure, featuring (i) the IP Coordinator, (ii) the Project Management Committee (regrouping all Stream leaders), and (iii) 9 Stream Management Committees (regrouping all contractors involved in each stream)

Work performed during the first year and results achieved As per the original work programme, 7 of the 9 Streams have been active during the first 12 months, while Streams 1d (Extension of the geographical coverage of the current knowledge of energy externalities) and 3a (Transferability and generalisation) are due to start in the following period. A summary of the work performed in the first period by the 7 active Streams is provided below. Stream 1a: LCA • Specification of interfaces between LCA/external costs/energy system modelling • Technology Foresight methods in LCA • Assessment of future costs based on experience curves • Assessment of individual energy technologies (Submitted Deliverables D7.1, D8.1, D9.1, D10.1, D11.1,

D12.1, D13.1 and D14.1) In addition, Deliverable D1.1 (submitted) addresses the specification and implementation of methodological developments in the Stream. Stream 1b: External costs of energy conversion • Atmospheric modelling: specification of data requirements • Water and soil modelling: improvement of the basic methodology for estimating concentration

degradation in animal tissue, data acquisition for trade modelling, and identification of the substances to which the exposure assessment framework needs to be extended

• Exposure response relations: literature review on epidemiological studies and indoor exposure (Submitted Deliverables D3.1 and D3.4)

• Assessment of biodiversity: development of a methodology for the estimation of external costs of biodiversity losses due to land use changes and emissions of air-borne pollutants.(Submitted Deliverable D4.1)

• Assessment of climate change: further development of the FUND model and of the European Agricultural Sector Model.

• Morbidity and mortality valuation: development and test of a questionnaire on the valuation of mortality and morbidity risks due to pollution. (Submitted Deliverable D6.1)

Stream 1c: Externalities associated to the extraction and transport of energy • Oil and gas: supply assessment of exporting countries (well advanced)..

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• Electricity: preliminary development of the accounting framework including the identification of the basic scientific information and data required. Identification, impact assessment and valuation of the health impact of electro magnetic fields (well advanced).

• Hydrogen: assessment of present transport schemes for hydrogen and other energy vectors (Submitted Deliverable D4.1). Assessment of future penetration of hydrogen (with hints on other energy vectors) as an energy carrier (Submitted Deliverable D4.2)

Stream 2a Modelling internalisation strategies, including scenario building • Common Structure of the national country models (Reference Energy System – RES) (Submitted

Deliverable D1.4) • Common list of commodities • Spreadsheet interfaces for country models (Submitted Deliverable D1.1) • VEDA FE database interface (Submitted Deliverable D1.3) • Improved version of the TIMES models generator • Reference list of technologies • Documentation on methodological interfaces and models features (Submitted Deliverable D5.10) Stream 2b Energy Technology Roadmap and Stakeholder Perspectives • Acceptability of monetary valuation methods and their potential role in energy policy making processes:

investigation of how monetary valuation and other methods are embodied in energy policy making processes, including two case studies for France and UK based on extensive interviews of stakeholders and officials. (Submitted Deliverable D1.1)

• Indicators for the evaluation of sustainability of energy systems (Submitted Deliverable D2.2, also incorporating D2.1)

• Procedures and plans for carrying out stakeholder surveys: The goals, scope, basic content, sequence and timing of the surveys were defined (Submitted Deliverable D12.1)

Stream 3b Dissemination/communication • Organisation of Forum 1 Parliamentary Workshop “Accepting the real price of sustainable energy” , 23

May 2005 in Brussels. (Deliverable D1.1: electronic proceedings). • Preparation of Forum 2, originally foreseen for 11/12 November in Ljubljana • Development, testing and operationalisation of internal communication structures and processes,

primarily based on the internal website (Deliverable D7.7) • Development of the first version of the public website at www.needs-project.org . To be further improved

gradually (Deliverable D7.7) • Production of the project flyer with basic information on the NEEDS project (Deliverable D7.9). Integration Stream • Drafting of the Inception report (Submitted Deliverable D1) • Integrated interface management: design, development and continuous updating of detailed Input/Output

tables representing the flow of information between research streams (Submitted Deliverables D2.1 and D2.2)

• Analysis of the NEEDS integration requirements • Preliminary analysis of a coherent integration methodology: “Interim report on Integration of research

streams” (Submitted Deliverable D4.1) • Preparation of the full set of reporting documents associated to the first annual review (including the

DoW for the second 18-month period submitted with this Activity Report) Expected end results Quantification of energy externalities More and better data on energy externalities Methodological developments Better methods and tools for the valuation of mortality and morbidity, the estimation of uncertainties, accounting for the precautionary principle, the dynamic valuation of externalities, etc. Enhancement and improvement of existing methods. in the valuation of health effects from air pollution, the transport and chemical conversion of pollutants, the updating and improvement of Exposure/Response functions, etc.

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Coverage of new energy technologies New and emerging energy technologies, notably: fuel cells and other hydrogen-based technologies, advanced fossil fuels, advanced nuclear, etc., and, in general, renewable energy technologies for which the current knowledge is insufficient (e.g. offshore wind, photovoltaics, bioelectricity, etc.) Coverage of new categories of socio-environmental costs New cost categories and impact pathways (e.g. loss of biodiversity, water and soil pathways, indoor combustion sources, etc.), establishment of the most appropriate valuation methods and calculation of the corresponding monetary values. Calculation of the external costs associated to the transport of energy, with particular regard to oil spills. Inputs to long term strategies for internalisation Long term scenarios incorporating internalisation strategies for Europe, and their potential effects on energy demand and supply, environmental performances, and sustainability of the economy at large, feeding directly into policy formulation. Better forecasting methods Energy Technology Roadmap, mainly based on stakeholders assessment and on the deployment of a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis, to supplement the analytical (modelling) platform and provide additional insights on how to cope with the uncertainties and differences in perception. Increased acceptability Assessment of stakeholders and users acceptability. Harmonisation at EU level Common modelling platform, consistently documented and used across EU Member States, NAS and Mediterranean Countries, and systematic assessment of the terms, conditions, methods and tools to ensure transferability of external cost data from one context to another, and the paths to generalisation. Coverage of New Accession States, Mediterranean area, developing countries Extension of the knowledge base on energy externalities to countries for which current knowledge is under developed.

Expected impacts and use of results Reduction of energy external costs Externalities of energy will be reduced, both as a result of increased awareness, and as a result of the generalised application of the users pay principle (through internalisation policies). In particular, environmental damages, negative impacts on human health, global warming will be reduced. Security of supply Through the systematic incorporation of externalities associated to security of energy supply, it will be possible to re-orient supply policies towards those energy carriers that minimise vulnerability of the energy systems. Enlargement and harmonisation In the perspective of a single, enlarged European energy market, harmonisation of taxation, and of energy pricing policies in general, is a prerequisite to avoid distortions and to guarantee that a level playing field is achieved in energy trade. NEEDS will make this possible, for what concerns both the valuation inputs to policy formulation and the consistency of energy strategies at large. Equity Internalising external costs is the a prerequisite for the systematic application of the users pay principle, which in turn will yield increased social equity. Market efficiency Setting the prices right (through appropriate externality accounting and internalisation) will lead to increased efficiency of the energy market. Energy supply policies will also benefit from accurate cost/benefit analyses, leading to optimal allocation of resources. Awareness and acceptability As previously mentioned, awareness and acceptability are essential on behalf of both policy makers and users, in order to ensure the success of pricing reforms and other externality-driven energy policies. RTD priorities orientation The extensive comparison of the socio-economic performances of alternative energy technology options will lead to a more reliable prioritisation of RTD in the energy area.

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1 SECTION 1 – Project objectives and major achievements during

the reporting period

1.1 Project overview and objectives The NEEDS Integrated Project addresses Priority 6.1: Sustainable Energy Systems and, more specifically, Sub-priority 6.1.3.2.5: Socio-economic tools and concepts for energy strategy.

The consortium includes 66 partners (of which some 15% are SMEs), representing 26 Countries (12 EU Member States, 9 NAS, 3 Mediterranean Countries, and 2 Countries from other parts of the World). It presents a balanced mix of Universities, Research Institutions (both public and private), Industry, NGOs. Most leading institutions in the area of energy externalities research are represented.

1.1.1 Overall objectives of the IP The ultimate objective of the NEEDS Integrated Project is to evaluate the full costs and benefits (i.e. direct + external) of energy policies and of future energy systems, both at the level of individual countries and for the enlarged EU as a whole.

From the scientific and technological viewpoint, this entails major advancements in the current state of knowledge in the following main areas of:

• Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of energy technologies • Monetary valuation of externalities associated to energy production, transport, conversion

and use • Integration of LCA and externalities information into policy formulation and scenario

building

Based on current state-of-the-art, achieving such advancements requires a sizeable innovation effort in a number of research fields, including:

• The analysis of new energy technologies options (e.g. fuel cells and other hydrogen-based technologies, advanced fossil fuels, advanced nuclear, etc.), and, in general, of renewable energy technologies for which the current LCA knowledge is insufficient (e.g. offshore wind, photovoltaics, bioelectricity, etc.)

• The development of new and improved tools for the monetary valuation of externalities of energy, targeting major innovation at several stages of the Impact Pathway Approach (IPA), in terms of: (i) methods (e.g. valuation of mortality and morbidity, estimation of uncertainties, accounting for the precautionary principle, dynamic valuation of externalities, etc.), of (ii) impacts so far insufficiently addressed (e.g. loss of biodiversity, water and soil pathways, indoor combustion sources, oil spills, etc.), and of (iii) the availability and reliability of quantitative evidence (improved Exposure/Response functions, extension of the geographical coverage of available externality data, etc.)

• The development of a consistent and robust analytical platform allowing to integrate the full range of information and data on LCA and external costs into a Pan-European modelling framework, and to build scenarios of future energy equilibria that must reflect the foreseeable evolution of energy supply and technology uptake, as well as steakeholders priorities and their acceptance of externality-based policy options.

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1.1.2 The IP structure The IP is built as a series of “streams”, each addressing a specific area of research. Innovation and S&T advancements lie both within each stream and in their overall integration. According to their specific objectives and area of research, the streams can be grouped in three main “blocks”. The first block corresponds to new developments, updating, enhancement of the current state of the art in the field of energy externalities and includes the following research streams (RS):

1a LCA of new energy technologies 1b New and improved methods to estimate the external costs of energy conversion 1c Externalities associated to the extraction and transport of energy 1d Extension of the geographical coverage of the current knowledge of energy externalities

The second block addresses long term strategies and includes the two following streams: 2a Modelling internalisation strategies, including scenario building 2b Energy Technology Roadmap and Stakeholder Perspectives

The third block focuses on providing input to policy making, dissemination and other communication issues, and includes the following two streams:

3a Transferability and generalisation 3b Dissemination/communication

As for the Integration Stream, it ensures that all interlinkages between research activities are fully recognised, their design continuously validated and enhanced, and their implementation appropriately carried out.

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1.2 Research Streams’ Objectives & Achievements

1.2.1 RS Integration Objectives & Achievements RS TITLE RS INTEGRATION

RS LEADER ISIS

RESEARCH STREAM Integration PROGRESS

Overall objective: Within the general objectives of the NEEDS project, the Integration Stream concretely aims at:

• developing a common language among the basic methodological frameworks and tools above, which are normally used to represent, assess and model the same or similar systems by means of different analytical tools, with different degrees of detail, system scopes, mathematical representations, etc.

• ensuring the actual exchange (Input/Output) of data from one tool to the other • developing a structured “protocol” to facilitate the widespread use of the integrated analysis

framework In particular, a major contribution of this Stream to the overall IP implementation is to ensure that Stream 2a (Modelling) receives the required inputs from all other IP activities, and provides the expected feedback to them, thus allowing for the construction of an appropriate, balanced set of long term scenarios. Lastly, and most importantly, the IPC together with the Stream Leaders are responsible, in close liaison with the EC, for the identification and detailed description of the policy packages to serve as a reference for the building of long term scenarios (stream 2a). The basic analytical frameworks to be integrated through the research and management activities carried out within this Stream are: • ExternE, which calculates the external costs associated to the supply of electricity and heat

based on the most relevant – both current and future - technological options (RS 1b); • Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), which calculates “cradle to grave” energy, environment, material

and economic resources used by the most relevant power supply options (RS 1a); • The Integrated MARKAL- EFOM System (TIMES), which generates technology rich partial

equilibrium solutions for the long term development of energy - environment systems (RS 2a);

• Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), which allows examining the robustness of the proposed technological solutions in view of stakeholder preferences (RS 2b).

It is worth noting here that the contractual DoW only refers to three analytical frameworks (LCA; ExternE and TIMES). One of the important achievements of the first activity year has been to recognise that MCDA had to be added in the analytical framework set to be integrated by this Stream.

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Under this point of view, the IP intends to combine the strengths of each analytical framework within a robust, integrated methodology. Through the development of suitable new interfaces, a direct feedback between changes in the overall energy system and the life cycle inventories of specific technologies and impact evaluations is ensured, whereby:

• ExternE provides LCA with the economic evaluation of damages related to main power supply options, whereas LCA adds to the ExternE procedure a “cradle to grave” assessment of resources depletion;

• ExternE feeds into the energy models detailed damage functions per emission / burden, whereas energy models provide equilibrium average commodities / technologies mix for improving ExternE calculations and energy system wide externalities for different policy scenarios:

• LCA feeds into the energy models detailed “cradle to grave” resources “costs” for power supply options, including learning ratios, whereas scenario dependent fuel mixes and technology markets are used to tune long term LCA of key technologies.

The implementation of the various components above are coordinated and enforced in this Stream, and the final Integrated Report will provide a full and detailed representation of the results achieved. The Integration Stream is thus structured in the following 5 WPs:

1. Inception 2. Integrated interface management 3. Detailed DoW for further IP phases 4. Harmonisation of models and methodologies 5. Policy conclusions and integrated reporting

The second and fourth WPs properly concern research activities while the first, third and fifth ones provide direct support to the PMC and their working contents can be considered as a hinge between research and management activities.

Objectives for the reporting period:

• Carrying out of the Inception Report (wp1) • Development of a scheme of the integrated interface management (wp2) • Analysis of the NEEDS integration requirements and production of the “Interim integration

report” (wp4).

Progress achieved:

Inception report: The inception report (D1.1) has been carried out and submitted in due time Integrated interface management: A set of detailed Input/Output tables representing the flow of information between research streams have been elaborated with input from all stream leaders, and extensively discussed at the meetings held during the reported period (see detail in the wp2 description). Potential critical pathways with respect to timing were identified. The full set of Input/Output tables are provided in the D2.1 and D2.2 deliverables, submitted on time. Analysis of the NEEDS integration requirements The analysis of a coherent integration methodology has started and first results can be seen. The interfaces between RS1a and RS2a have been discussed in an iterative process and worked out. The first achievements of this analysis have been documented in the “Interim report on Integration of research streams”. The report (D.4.1) has been delivered in M12.

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Meetings held in the framework of the integration and management activities o 19 October 2004, Brussels, General KO meeting (PMC level) o 14 December 2004, Rome, KO Integration o 07 March 2005, Paris second Integration meeting o 23 May 2005, Brussels Second PMC meeting

Deviations from workprogramme: None

1.2.2 RS 1a Objectives & Achievements RS TITLE: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies

RS LEADER: DLR

RESEARCH STREAM 1a PROGRESS

Overall objective: The Research Stream provides data on costs and life cycle inventories for a wide range of key emerging energy technologies, with a focus on long term technical developments. Based on these results, in cooperation with RS1b technology specific external costs are quantified in particular for future technologies.

Objectives for the reporting period: - Establish methodological framework for LCA of long term future technical systems - Specification of interfaces between LCA, external cost assessment, and energy system

modelling - Technical and economic specification of current reference technologies - Roadmaps supporting the specification of future technology configurations

Progress achieved: - Specification of interfaces between LCA/external costs/energy system modelling: In close

cooperation with the relevant WPs from other Research Streams the data flow between streams has been specified. A framework for time and scenario dependent LCA has been developed. The specification of the LCA software interface that allows data transfer within RS1a partners has been worked out and implemented in the LCA software. A training session on the EcoSpold data format took place at the last RS1a progress meeting.

- Technology Foresight methods in LCA: A methodological framework of technology foresight integrated with LCA has been developed, leading to the identification of key drivers affecting technological development of the addressed technologies, and supporting a road-mapping process to characterise the long term future configuration of technologies to be subsequently analysed in LCA.

- Assessment of future costs based on experience curves: The methodology for analysing future energy cost developments and the use of experience curves has been defined. Literature studies on experience for the full range of technologies addressed in RS1a have been compiled and

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critically reviewed. Guidelines for how to construct experience curves based on new data were provided. Work on sources of cost reduction was initiated, and interviews to further analyse cost reduction potentials have been prepared.

- Assessment of individual energy technologies: Within each cluster of electricity generation technologies, a set of relevant reference technologies to be analysed has been defined in close cooperation with RS2a. A technical specification of the systems is provided in the first deliverables. System performance is described as a function of expected technical developments. A first roadmap until 2050 is developed. System costs For each of the relevant technologies an LCA model was implemented in the respective partners’ LCA software. A list of modelled processes, a first draft of completed list of datasets, a list of needed background data and a first test dataset in the EcoSpold format was prepared by all partners as input for WP5 and WP15. For most technologies, costs were estimated based on specification of components, material requirements and the analysis of specific production processes.

Deviations from workprogramme: None

1.2.3 RS 1b Objectives & Achievements RS TITLE Development and improvement of a methodology to estimate external costs of energy

RS LEADER USTUTT.TFU

RESEARCH STREAM 1b PROGRESS

Overall objective: To further develop, improve and extend the methodology for calculating energy externalities, and in particular: • To analyse new impact pathways (e.g. soil, water, etc.) • To analyse new impacts (e.g. loss of biodiversity, hemispheric impacts, impacts from indoor

sources, etc.) • To improve current methods, tools and datasets (e.g. Exposure/Response functions, exposure

patterns, valuation of mortality and morbidity, transport of atmospheric pollutants, etc.) • To reduce current uncertainties and close existing knowledge gaps.


• Identify improvements and detailed input data requirements for models and start data provision.

• Review literature on health impacts. • Develop an approach for assessing external costs of biodiversity losses. • Improve models for assessing climate change damages. • Ensure consistency of work within the stream and with other research streams.

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Progress achieved: Within the first 12 months several reviews and updates have already been made. The work is ongoing. In more detail the following work was carried out: WP1 (atmospheric modelling): Detailed task requirements and input data were determined as well as the EMEP model for hemispheric scales was developed. WP2 (water and soil modelling) : The basic methodology of estimating concentration degradation in animal tissue was improved, data acquisition for trade modelling was finalised, and substances to which the exposure assessment framework needs to be extended were identified. WP3 (exposure response relations): A Literature review on epidemiological studies and indoor exposure was carried out. WP4 (assessment of biodiversity): A methodology for the estimation of external costs of biodiversity losses due to land use changes and emissions of air-borne pollutants was developed. WP5 (assessment of climate change): The FUND model and the European Agricultural Sector Model were further developed. WP6 (morbidity and mortality valuation): A questionnaire on the valuation of mortality and morbidity risks due to pollution was developed and tested. In addition to this basic work, in WP7 (methodology and tool development) consistency between the developments within the different workpackages and outside this stream was ensured. Furthermore, a first analysis of the importance of geographical regions in the context of life cycle analysis was carried out and first data for the geographical extension was processed as well as uncertainty assessment was improved. Within WP8 (linking external cost estimation with economic/energy/environmental modelling and life cycle analysis) the basic methodology of interfaces between external cost estimation and life cycle assessment as well as economic/energy/environmental modelling has been developed. The work on consistency and interfaces was done in close collaboration with WP4 of RS Integration.

Deviations from workprogramme WP1: It has been found out that non-linearities can not be described completely with the planned methodology. Alternative approaches will be developed instead. WP2/WP3: 1 person month for Armines was moved from WP3 to WP2 because Armines is volunteering to develop a simple mass balance model for trace elements in the marine environment including fish exposure. WP6: Problems with the application of computer based questionnaires in other projects lead to the decision to develop a traditional questionnaire instead, to be filled out in the presence of a (very good) interviewer.

1.2.4 RS 1c Objectives & Achievements RS TITLE RS 1c: New Externalities Associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy

RS LEADER OME

RESEARCH STREAM 1c PROGRESS

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Overall objective: The objective of RS 1c is to assess the externalities associated with the extraction of oil and gas, as well as transport of oil, gas, electricity and other energy vectors such as hydrogen. These issues are analysed separately for each mentioned fuels in a work package, together with the review and overall assessment of the results and their transferability, and stream coordination. Consequently, the stream has altogether six work packages. The methodology follows the general impact pathway methodology with risk analysis assessing for each stage of the fuel cycle the activities, for each activity the burdens, for each burden the impact, and for each impact the economic valuation.

Objectives for the first 18 month period: Assessment of present and future (2010-2020-2030) geographical supply-demand balance for Europe for the analysed energy sources (oil, gas, electricity and hydrogen).

Progress achieved: Present and future supply-demand balance assessments for oil (Task 1.1) and gas (Task 2.1) were planned to be finished by the end of the first reporting period. The supply assessment of oil and gas exporting countries is well advanced. However, the quantification of the overall EU demand of these energy sources depends to the European oil and gas demand figures which have to be provided by RS 2a. Since this Stream1 has not yet entirely processed the EU demand figures and plans to provide them by end 2005, it was not possible for RS 1c to submit Deliverable 1.1 and 2.1 (planned by M12) on time. Nevertheless this will not cause any delay in the subsequent tasks of WP1 and WP2 that are in parallel already working on the routes and flows definition. It is also worth noting that this slight delay (for especially deliverable 1.1) will allow us to take into account the consequences of the recent geopolitical developments in major oil exporting countries in Middle East. The work on electricity (WP3) is already in advanced stage and will be completed by the end of 2005 as foreseen. However, we would like to integrate deliverable 3.1 into 3.2 due to the unforeseen methodological and technical reasons. The combined deliverable will be finalised by the month 14. The work for Hydrogen (WP4) is well under way. The first and second deliverables (D4.1 and D4.2) have been submitted in due time. In sum, so far, the work is well under way, and no delay or obstacle is expected for the overall completion of RS 1c. Meetings held: November 15, 2004: RS 1c kick off meeting with all RS 1c participants. March 15 and 21, 2005: Coordination and Methodology meetings with WP leaders on Impact Pathway Approach, and Risk Assessment and Risk Factor Analysis. Deviations

1 due to Eurostat lake of data, see the RS 2a activity description

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Due to the delayed provision of the EU demand figures from RS 2a, it was not possible for WP1 and WP2 to submit the deliverables planned for M12 on time. For the moment the work is based on the hypothetical demand figures taken from the EC’s “European Energy Transport and Trends to 2030” study (which was released in January 2003) in order to have a preliminary insight on the magnitude of oil and gas import requirements. This will not cause any delay in the subsequent tasks.

1.2.5 RS 2a Objectives & Achievements

RS TITLE RS 2a Energy systems modelling and internalisation strategies, including scenarios building

RS LEADER IMAA - CNR

RESEARCH STREAM 2a PROGRESS

Overall objective: The RS 2a work is aimed to generate via the Integrated MARKAL- EFOM System (TIMES) partial equilibrium technology rich economic models of each Member State and of the EU as a whole (Pan-European model), including the most important emissions, materials, and damage functions used by LCA and ExternE, in their long term development. These energy-environmental models will allow for both an EU and worldwide perspective and desegregation over the Member States and Accession Countries. Some key data will be taken from the other Research Streams providing them iteratively with equilibrium quantities and prices for the achievement of environmental protection and economic development targets and for the identification of the most robust technological options and prioritised developments for the promising ones taking into account their performance under economic and environmental criteria (jointly with RS2b).


• Definition of a basic structure for the country models (Reference Energy System – RES) • Selection of common data sources for country energy balances • Definition of suited spreadsheet interfaces (templates) • Improvement of TIMES models generator and VEDA FE database interface • Definition of a reference list of technologies • Training in the use of software and templates specification for country models

State of art and Progress achieved:

Preliminary work carried out and modifications with respect the original DoW Some additional work was preliminarily done to provide the basis for the operative start-up of the project and to comply with the official deadlines. In particular, most of the work was directed to harmonise the work steps relatively to the definition of the Reference Energy System (RES) and the structure of templates for the implementation of the country models. At the same time, suited software interfaces were developed (VEDA FE and BE) and the TIMES models generator was improved to take into account the country models features.

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Leaving unchanged deliverables and milestones, work packages and tasks were modified in order to be well tuned and better fitted with the original description of work. In particular the modifications concerned the first two work packages of this research stream as follow: WP1: Task 1.1 and Task 1.2 have been added Old Task 1.1 and Task 1.4 have been merged The start of the WP has been anticipated to month 1 instead of month 4 The structure of the Work Package 1 (WP1) was revised in order to optimise the development of the modelling tools for building the country models as well as the Pan- European one. The design of the Reference Energy System (RES) is the starting point, because it determines the structure of all the models. A selection of the main common data sources is necessary to establish which data will be fed directly into the country models. Two new tasks (Task 1.1 and 1.2) were therefore added: the tasks 1.1 is devoted to determine the basic model structure (i.e. the list of energy service demands, energy carriers, materials, and emissions) which will be agreed upon by all country modellers, whereas the task 1.2 is aimed to establish the basic assumptions for the models initial year’s calibration. On the other hand there was the necessity of harmonising two tasks strictly interrelated (old tasks 1.1 and 1.4) dealing with the design and implementation of suitable spreadsheet interfaces. These two tasks were thus merged into the new task 1.3, which is aimed to the development and training in use of custom conduits to read data read data from the official data sources, and to the set-up of input/output formats and reporting table, in order to ensure a transfer of data direct or manual to the other tools of the IP. WP2: Better specification of task 2.1 Old task 2.2 and Task 2.5 have been merged Old task 2.4 and 2.5 have been merged The start of the WP has been anticipated to month 4 instead of month 6. An internal time schedule (to be periodically revised) was also set to tune internal deadlines with official deadlines and to assure the release on time of deliverables. As concerns the general status of implementation of the 18- month time plan, there weren’t significant problems: deviation in time scheduling did not affect the achievement of results, deliverables and milestones.

Progress achieved WP1 focused on the definition of a basic RES and templates (the first deliverable of WP1). The list of commodities (demands, energy carriers, materials and emissions) was defined, in agreement with the LCA working group. The RES structure was agreed among all the partners. Common data sources were then selected for defining the base year energy flows and existing stock of buildings and technologies. The main data source chosen for the base-year energy balance of all countries was the Eurostat database of the European Commissions. Consistency problems with the Eurostat database were found. In particular, some energy consumption values posted by EUROSTAT in the National Energy Balances has changed between March and June 2005, some non zero values were missing and some other significantly inconsistent with national data statistics. This has caused extra efforts for redoing the whole procedure of data extraction & template filling out. The templates were presented to the partners during the workshop “Starting country models: transfer and training” (MS1) and their general structure was approved. Subsequently the templates were modified, according to partners suggestions, and released over the period from May to August 2005.

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VEDA-FE was significantly modified in order to fully accommodate the entire set of TIMES parameters and sets, and VEDA version 2 was released in early Summer 2005. The TIMES model generator underwent several improvements and corrections during the September 2004 to March 2005 period. In addition, some minor errors in the GAMS code were found and corrected. The work done so far for WP2, regarded the completion (at the end of June 2005) of a reference list of existing and future technologies, related to supply and demand side for all sectors that constitutes the technology repository. The next step has been dealing with the characterisation of these technologies and the individuation of specific options for the different countries. The main issues focused on the overall consistency of the database (i.e. consistency of attributes between the base year technologies and the other technologies, the default data set and the economic characterisation of technologies) and a data template is being used for structuring the characterisation. Another main issue is scenario analysis that, although it is formally part of RS 2a, it is a responsibility of the entire project. A selection of scenarios of interest is currently ongoing and concerns a reference scenario, based on a business as usual assumptions, and policy cases of interest for EU stakeholders. Partners have been trained in the use of software packages and templates and have completed (or are in the process of completing) the country templates. WP5 is concerned with training, documentation and reporting. All the deadlines were respected. Training activities were conducted throughout the entire 12-month period to install and updating the software (VEDA-FE and VEDA-BE), experiencing with basic and advanced functions, and to filling in the Templates. These activities were supported by a comprehensive documentation on the Templates and the VEDA interfaces, by deliverable D 5.10 “Documentation on methodological interfaces and models features” and by a first report on Integration of ExternE, LCA and MARKAL/TIMES. Workshop proceedings on the technical and plenary sessions were released on due time and made available on the NEEDS website.

Synthesis of the achieved results Common Structure of the national country models (Reference Energy System – RES) Common list of commodities Spreadsheet interfaces for country models VEDA FE database interface (version 2) Improved version of the TIMES models generator Reference list of technologies Documentation on methodological interfaces and models features

Deviations Consistency problems with the Eurostat database were found. In particular, some energy consumption values posted by EUROSTAT in the National Energy Balances has changed between March and June 2005, some non zero values were missing and some other were significantly inconsistent with national data statistics. This has caused extra efforts for redoing the whole procedure of data extraction and template filling out, that have been overcome, with minor changes in the time schedule of tasks and in the release of deliverables.

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1.2.6 RS 2b Objectives & Achievements RS TITLE Energy technology roadmap and stakeholders perspective

RS LEADER Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI)


Overall objective: The central objective of this Research Stream is to broaden the basis for decision support beyond the assessment of external costs and to extend the integration of the central analytical results generated by other Research Streams. The ultimate results of the technology roadmap will include mapping of the sensitivity of sustainability performance of technological options to stakeholder preference profiles as well as exploration of stakeholder perspectives on external costs concept and prospects for internalisation.


• Review of existing sets of sustainability criteria and indicators and their suitability for use in the sustainability assessment planned within RS 2b

• Establishment of a set of social criteria and indicators satisfying basic requirements for evaluation

• Exploration of requirements on method and tool for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)

• Investigating how monetary valuation and other methods are embodied in energy policy making processes in two countries

• Developing procedures and plans for carrying out stakeholder surveys

Progress achieved:

• Review of criteria and indicators: Definitions of sustainability were reviewed and some basic principles were formulated. Furthermore, requirements on criteria and indicators were established, having in mind the ultimate goal to make the evaluation of sustainability of energy technology more operative. Comprehensive literature survey of criteria and indicators relevant for the assessment of sustainability of energy systems was carried out. In the course of this work published criteria and indicator sets proposed within international and selected national projects and/or organisations/institutions were reviewed. Strengths and weaknesses of existing criteria and indicator sets were identified and recommendations on improvements were formulated. The findings are summarised in a report.

• Establishment of a set of social criteria and indicators: As anticipated and confirmed by the survey of criteria and indicators their social component showed to be rather weakly established for the purpose of RS 2b work. Thus, extensive original work was necessary to define a set satisfying the basic requirements of the project. A multi-step approach was applied filtering the initially identified set of 1320 social indicators to 28 that are considered to be capable to measure the social dimension of present and future energy systems. These indicators are attributed to concepts derived from the theoretical concept of social compatibility. The underlying criteria are: (a) Continuity of energy service over time;

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(b) Political stability and legitimacy; (c) Social components of risks, and (d) Quality of Life. The analysis and the selected set are documented in a report. The established set of social indicators will be further examined in a Delphi-exercise with participation of selected stakeholders.

• Exploration of requirements on method and tool for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA): This activity is in progress and its outcome will serve as the basis for the appropriate selection of MCDA method(s) and tool(s) suitable for use within NEEDS. Synergies between partners having complementary experience in model-based decision analysis on the one hand and in applications of MCDA methods to energy systems on the other are utilised. An experiment with analysis of the Markal model using the MCMA tool (modular tool developed by IIASA for Multi-Criteria Model Analysis) was performed; the results of this experiment have shown the capabilities of the MCMA tool for analysis of the Markal model. The feasibility of such an advanced approach has been demonstrated. Nevertheless, it was concluded that due to logistic and resource reasons use of a simpler and less demanding approach will be necessary within NEEDS.

• Investigating how monetary valuation and other methods are embodied in energy policy making processes: this activity deals with the acceptability of monetary valuation methods and their potential role in energy policy making processes. Its ultimate goal is to identify the factors promoting or hindering the use of monetary valuation techniques and results in the actual energy-policy making processes at the Member State level. Two case studies for France and UK were carried out based on extensive interviews of various stakeholders and officials. The studies point out to substantial differences between the two countries, with much more extensive applications being carried out in UK. The reasons for such differences have been analysed and are elaborated in a draft interim report. Third case study for US will follow. In parallel a modeling exercise using the political economy tools to understand how such methods can interact with informational lobbying in policy making games is being pursued.

• Developing procedures and plans for carrying out stakeholder surveys: The goals, scope, basic content, sequence and timing of the surveys were defined. Also the categories of stakeholders to be addressed were defined. A stakeholder database is under development. Concrete steps have been discussed to assure a bridge between carrying out the surveys, evaluating them and communicating the results.

Deviations from work programme Six deliverables were originally planned for the first 12 months. Four of them (D 1.1, D 2.1, D 2.2 and D 12.1) were available at the end of this period, subject to some delays. The reasons for the delays vary. Partially some tasks showed to be more complex than originally expected and the existing basis for implementing them was rather thin. This has stimulated interesting developments. Partially, the contributors to the stream have a very differentiated background (research, NGOs, industry), the topics are multidisciplinary and finding a common language takes effort and time. Nevertheless, progress in this respect is very promising. Two deliverables were shifted to the next six months: D 2.3 due to the delay of input and need to carefully elaborate the Delphi procedure and D 9.1 due to the extended need of interactions between WPs. Suitable adjustments were made in planning of the next 18 months period and the delays are not considered to constitute a problem for the timely achievement of stream objectives.

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1.2.7 RS 3b Objectives & Achievements RS TITLE: Dissemination and Communication

RS LEADER: FHG-ISI


Overall objective: Next to the task of developing internal project communication structures and the more classical dissemination tasks for disseminating the results of the different project streams as they occur in the course of the project, the main objective of the dissemination/communication stream is to discuss the results in a wider context of energy policy definition and evaluation. For this purpose, a series of six Forum events are set up in different countries and regions, which shall highlight, how externalities could deepen the discussion of energy policy issues by interacting with a wider audience beyond the expert level. While all six Forum events will focus on particular themes drawing on some of the project results from the different streams in the context of the theme chosen, the last event, a larger conference, will also have the purpose to give a forum to the project outcomes in a more comprehensive way.

Objectives for the reporting period: - Carrying out of NEEDS Forum 1 and preparation of NEEDS Forum 2 - Development of internal Internet-based project communication structures - Dissemination of results from the different project streams (development of public website,

preparation of a project flyer, preparation of NEEDS newsletter, preparation of a database of projects and of research players)

Progress achieved: - Forum 1 was carried out on 23 May 2005 in Brussels. Forum 1 Proceedings have been prepared

by Globe Europe in electronic Form. Internet Proceedings ar in preparation to be integrated to the NEEDS website.

- Preparations for Forum 2, which was foreseen for 11/12 November in Ljubljana have been started

- Internal communication structures have been set up with an internal website

- A first version of the public website is available at www.needs-project.org and will now gradually be improved

- A project flyer was developed with information on the NEEDS project (replacing ‘Newsletter 1’).

Deviations from workprogramme: - NEEDS Forum 2 was postponed to June 2006 in agreement of the Commission in order to

allow for a better implication of the other research streams. As a consequence all further Forum events will be shifted back about 6 months.

- The preparation of the second newsletter and of a contact database was also postponed to better integrate the results from the different research streams.

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2 SECTION 2 – Research Streams progress of the period

2.1 RS Integration

2.1.1 Workpackages Progress RS INTEGRATION WP N° 1 – Inception Report

WP LEADER - ISIS

Start Month (actual): M 1 End Month (actual): M 4 OBJECTIVES The main objective was to produce the Inception Report (D1.1) containing a detailed review of tasks, roles and outputs described in the original project also following possible inputs emerging from the evaluation and negotiation processes. PROGRESS The Inception Report (IR) was delivered in Month 4. The project objectives, expected results, detailed timing and split of responsibilities have been further detailed and consolidated. The preparation of the Inception Report has been a joint work of all stream leaders, in the framework of the activities of the PMC. This was also made possible by the immediate establishment of the PMC at the very start of the project. DEVIATIONS None PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

ISIS Drafting of D1.1; coordination of partners; review of partners’ contributions.

DLR Active contribution to drafting of D1.1

USTUTT.TFU Active contribution to drafting of D1.1

OME Active contribution to drafting of D1.1

CUEC Active contribution to drafting of D1.1

IMAA-CNR Active contribution to drafting of D1.1

PSI Active contribution to drafting of D1.1

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E-CO Active contribution to drafting of D1.1

FhG/ISI Active contribution to drafting of D1.1

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RS Integration

RS LEADER: ISIS

WP N° 2

WP LEADER: DLR/USTUTT.TFU

Start Month (actual): 02 End Month (actual): 36 OBJECTIVES: To continuously validate, and to progressively contribute to the further specification of the detailed nature and operation of interlinkages between streams and activities, and to concretely ensure that they are adequately implemented. The objective of the first reporting period (months 2-12), was as follows:

- Development of Input/Output tables representing the flow of information between all RSs - Specification of interfaces in particular between RSs 1a, 1b and 2a.

PROGRESS Three meetings related to RS In WP2 took place:

- WP2 Interface Management Meeting, Stuttgart, 18 November 2004, with participants from RS1a, 1b and 2a

- Integration Stream Kick-off meeting, Rome, 14 December 2004, with a dedicated WP2 session, and

- Integration Stream meeting, Paris, 7 March 2005, with a dedicated WP2 session

A set of detailed Input/Output tables representing the flow of information between research streams have been elaborated with input from all stream leaders, and extensively discussed during the meetings mentioned above. Potential critical pathways with respect to timing were identified. The full set of Input/Output tables are provided in the D2.1 deliverable submitted in March 2005.

As a result of the Stuttgart meeting, the data flow between RS1a and RS1b was well specified. Requirements are documented in the D2.1 deliverable and in the RS1a document on ‘Interfaces between LCA, external cost assessment and energy modelling’.

Interfaces between RS1a and RS2a were discussed in an iterative process, in close cooperation with WP4 activities (see also WP4 description of work). The main problem was to avoid a double counting of life cycle data across LCA datasets and the material flows endogenously modelled in TIMES. Using the examples of PV and solar thermal power plants, LCA data with different levels of coverage were produced to support the discussion process. As a result of the discussion it was concluded that for each technology analysed RS1a will provide the amount of cumulative emissions (not differentiating between energy and non-energy related emissions) and other environmental interventions addressed in RS1a, resulting from the supply of all materials due to the construction and due to dismantling, per GW of installed capacity. The RS In WP4 report on ‘Integration of research streams’ and the RS1a WP1 report on ‘Interfaces between LCA, external cost assessment and energy modelling’ provides the documentation of the interfaces.

Interfaces between RS2a and RS1b were drafted during the Stuttgart meeting, and further specified in the following discussion process. The final results of the process are documented in the RS In WP4 report on ‘Integration of research streams’ DEVIATIONS None PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

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ISIS Participation in the meetings; active participation in the discussion and review process; cooperation with WP4

DLR Participation in the meetings; active participation in the discussion and review process; drafting of deliverables; cooperation with WP4

USTUTT.TFU Participation in the meetings; active participation in the discussion and review process; cooperation with WP4

OME Participation in meetings (Rome, Paris); active participation in the discussion and review process; cooperation with WP4

CUEC Participation in meetings (Rome, Paris); IMAA-CNR Participation in meetings (Rome, Paris); active participation in the discussion

and review process; cooperation with WP4 PSI Participation in meetings (Rome, Paris); active participation in the discussion

and review process; cooperation with WP4 E-CO Participation in meetings (Rome, Paris); active participation in the discussion

and review process; cooperation with WP4 FhG/ISI Participation in meetings (Rome, Paris); active participation in the discussion

and review process; cooperation with WP4

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RS INTEGRATION WP N° 3 – Detailed DoW for further IP phases

WP LEADER - ISIS

Start Month (actual): 10 End Month (actual): 36 OBJECTIVES To assess the state of development of the workplan towards the end of the first period and produce a revised, detailed workplan for the second period (M 13 – 30) PROGRESS The workprogramme for the second phase of the project has been established on the basis of the actual progress achieved until M12 and the deviations in the planned activities encountered by the partners. The objectives, timing, expected outputs, roles and responsibilities have been described in detail together with a full list of Deliverables and detailed resource allocation per WP. DEVIATIONS None PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

ISIS Drafting of D3.1; coordination of partners; review of partners contributions.

DLR Active contribution to drafting of D3.1; coordination of partners inputs at Stream level

USTUTT.TFU Active contribution to drafting of D3.1; coordination of partners inputs at Stream level

OME Active contribution to drafting of D3.1; coordination of partners inputs at Stream level

CUEC Active contribution to drafting of D3.1; coordination of partners inputs at Stream level

IMAA-CNR Active contribution to drafting of D3.1; coordination of partners inputs at Stream level

PSI Active contribution to drafting of D3.1; coordination of partners inputs at Stream level

E-CO Active contribution to drafting of D3.1; coordination of partners inputs at Stream level

FhG/ISI Active contribution to drafting of D3.1; coordination of partners inputs at Stream level

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RS INTEGRATION WP N° 4 – Harmonisation of Models and Methodologies

WP LEADER - KANLO

Start Month (actual): 5

End Month (actual): 46

OBJECTIVES WP4 is aimed to analyse the scientific contents as well as the methodological approaches of the main analytical packages the IP is based on: bottom-up model generator, LCA, ExternE and MCDA. The mutual harmonisation requirements, the possible constraints to the integration process and the general added value of this operation will be highlighted. The work will thus ensure consistency among the analytical methodologies used within the different Streams, clarifying the mathematical background, the analytical implications and the scientific and economic significance of the “NEEDS integrated method”. This WP will also highlight the added value of the method used to generate technology/scenario rankings based on the results of MCDA applications. A particular attention will be given to the technologies considered within the Streams 1a, 1b, 2a and the ones taken into account when building the technological roadmap within stream 2b. Possible harmonisation strategies will be suggested. During the first 12 months this WP initiates the analysis outlined above focusing in particular on the scientific contents and the methodological approaches of the concerned Streams. The integration requirements and the possible constraints are outlined. The analysis will be gradually improved considering the achievements of the parallel analytical interface WPs (WP1 of RS 1a and WP8 of RS 1b). At the end, the final “Needs integration method” will be specified. This WP will thus produce the following three deliverables:

• Interim integration report (within the first 18 month period and after 12 months) • Final integration report (after 30 months) • Final description of the NEEDS integration method (at the end of the project)

Starting point The research on a coherent integration method started on the basis of the detailed knowledge of the individual methodologies of the four streams: RS1A (LCA), RS1B (External Costs), RS2A (Integrated Energy Modeling), and RS2B (MCDA and Social acceptance). The representatives from the various streams met in October 2004 to make presentations on their respective methodologies, and to exchange on their initial views of possible integration methods. PROGRESS Following the initial October 2004 kick-off meeting, the construction of a coherent integration method started with a technical paper produced by KUL, PSI and KANLO (Integration of ExternE, LCA and MARKAL/TIMES, by S. Kypreos, D. VanRegemorter, and R. Loulou, March 1, 2005) , summarizing the views held by RS2a on a possible integration method. That paper outlined an algorithm for integrating the three approach, and also pointed out to the open issues still existing. An earlier draft of that paper was distributed to all participants in WP4 in November 2004, to serve as a basis for discussions in the following months.

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KANLO prepared several successive drafts of the Interim report on the Integration of Methodologies based partly on the earlier paper, and on the numerous discxussions held from march to May 2005, both via e-mails and at formal meetings (March 7, 2005 in Paris, April 24-27 in Madrid, and May 2005 in Brussels). Each stream representative had ample opportunities to present their own stream’s methodology (LCA, External costs, MCDA, Other indicators). Many suggestions were made by all partners present to alter and refine the method outlined in the successive drafts. The final version of the Interim report, dated July 25 2005, was submitted to the RSI stream leader (ISIS). As part of that report, a recommendation was made to hold a technical meeting of the Integration partners to establish a more precise calendar for the implementation of the proposed methodology. Such a meeting is tentatively planned for October 2005. We quote below extracts from the conclusions of the Interim Report:

• This report defines the general approach agreed upon for integrating the inputs and outputs of the various research streams The specific focus of Integration concerns the electric power sector (EPG).

• The various streams fully recognize that a complete integration of all energy technologies

(beyond the EPG sector) is of great interest, and should perhaps be the subject of future research work, after completion of the NEEDS project.

• A technical meeting of all parties to the Integration stream should be held as soon as

possible after this Interim Report is finalized, in order to operationalize the subsequent integration tasks.

The approach outlined in this Interim Report will be progressively tested over a fairly long time period, as data and results from the various streams become available. DEVIATIONS There was no deviation from the plan, either in contents or in schedule. One point worth noting is that the Integration Group that participated in the elaboration of the methodology extended beyond the list of partners initially planned for WP4. In particular, ESU and DLR fully participated in WP4, as delegates from the RS1A stream. For instance, ESU, IMAA, and DLR fully participated in this WP. This extended involvement is reflected in the section below on Partners Contributions PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION KANLO • Acted as WP leader, coordinating exchanges between all partners

involved in Integration. • Co-authored the initial technical paper “Integration of ExternE, LCA

and MARKAL/TIMES, by S. Kypreos, D. VanRegemorter, and R. Loulou, March 1, 2005)

• Wrote the successive drafts of the Interim report, integrating inputs

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from the other partners • Coordinated the interactions between Stream Integration and Stream 2A• Actively attended the Paris March 7 meeting, and the Madrid April 22-

25 meeting and made presentations of the Integration Method • Submitted the first deliverable Integration of research streams: An

interim report on the harmonization of methodologies, by Richard Loulou (KANLO), with inputs from: Roberto Dones (PSI-1), Bert Droste-Franke (USTUTT), Rainer Friedrich (USTUT), Rolf Frischknecht (ESU), Stefan Hirschberg (PSI-1), Wolfram Krewitt (DLR), Socrates Kypreos (PSI-2), and Denise Van Regemorter (KUL)

KUL • Provided expertise on integration methods, based on previous experience with Energy Modeling, ExternE, and LCA analysis

• Main co-author of the initial technical paper “Integration of ExternE, LCA and MARKAL/TIMES, by S. Kypreos, D. VanRegemorter, and R. Loulou, March 1, 2005)

• Actively participated in the various meetings where Integration method was discussed: March 7 Paris meeting of the Integration stream, April 22-25 Madrid meeting of the RS2a stream, May 23 Brussels meeting of Integration stream.

• Provided numerous inputs to improve the successive drafts of the Interim report (in particular, provided initial idea for the streamlined versioin of the methodology that was eventually adopted)

PSI • Actively attended the various meetings where Integration method was discussed: March 7 Paris meeting of the Integration stream, April 22-25 Madrid meeting of the RS2a stream, May 23 Brussels meeting of Integration Stream.

• Provided inputs related to the participation of Stream 2b in Integration Stream, i.e. related to MCDA, other indicators, and sopcial acceptance

• Coordinated the interactions between Stream Integration and Stream 2B• Main co-author of the initial technical paper “Integration of ExternE,

LCA and MARKAL/TIMES, by S. Kypreos, D. VanRegemorter, and R. Loulou, March 1, 2005)

• Actively attended the April 22-25 Madrid meeting of the RS2a stream • Reviewed the successive drafts and made many suggestions for

improvements. DLR • Provided inputs related to the participation of Stream 1A in Integration

Stream, i.e. related to LCA • Reviewed the successive drafts and made many suggestions for

improvements • Actively attended the March 7 Paris meeting of the Integration stream,

and the May 23 Brussels meeting of Integration Stream • Coordinated the interactions between Stream Integration and Stream 1A

USTTUT-ESA • Provided inputs related to the participation of Stream 1B in Integration Stream, i.e. related to External costs

• Reviewed the successive drafts and made many suggestions for improvements

• Actively attended the March 7 Paris meeting of the Integration stream, and the May 23 Brussels meeting of Integration Stream

• Coordinated the interactions between Stream Integration and Stream 1BESU • Provided inputs related to the participation of Stream 1A in Integration

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Stream, i.e. related to LCA, and more particularly on the interfaces required to facilitate communciation between LCA data and the TIMES model

• Reviewed the successive drafts and made many suggestions for improvements

• Actively attended the March 7 Paris meeting of the Integration stream, and the May 23 Brussels meeting of Integration Stream.

IMAA • Reviewed the successive drafts of the interim report and made many suggestions for improvements

• Provided inputs related to a minimum list of commodities issued by ESU in Research Stream 1A.

• Actively participated in various meetings where Integration method was discussed: Kick – off meeting of RS2a Florence, November 22 – 23, 2004; Kick – off meeting RSI Rome, December 4; RS2a II plenary meeting ”Progress on the 18-month time plan” Madrid, April 22.

INFM • No activities foreseen within the first reporting period ECN • No activities foreseen within the first reporting period RS INTEGRATION WP N° 5 – Policy Conclusions and Integrated Reporting

WP LEADER - ISIS



OBJECTIVES To report on the integration process between the various IP streams, and to formulate policy conclusions accordingly PROGRESS No activities were foreseen for the first 12 month of the project.

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2.1.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones RS INTEGRATION

RS LEADER ISIS

LIST OF DELIVERABLES Deliverabl

e N°

Deliverable Title

Nature Dissemination Level

Delivery Due date

Delivery Actual/Fores

een date

Reasons for Deviation

D1.1 Inception Report R RE 4 4

D2.1

First periodic report on interfaces

R RE 6 6

D2.2 Second periodic report on interfaces

R RE 12 12

D4.1

Interim methodological report

R RE 12 12

List of Milestones RS INTEGRATION

RS LEADER ISIS

LIST OF MILESTONES M Milestone Due for Achieved in /Expected for

M1 Acceptance of the Inception report by the EC

M 4 + 2 The EC does not consider the Inception report as reference document for the further activities of the project.

M 2.1

First PMC meeting M1 Kick-off meeting October 19, 2004 – Brussels

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M 2.2

First Integration meeting -- Integration Stream Kick-off December 14, 2004 – Rome

M 2.3

Second Integration meeting -- March 7, 2005 Paris

M 4.1

Second PMC meeting Agreement reached within the PMC on the basic structure of energy models

-- May 23, 2005 Brussels

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2.2 RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies

2.2.1 Workpackages Progress RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 1 Interfaces to external costs/energy system modelling

WP LEADER: ESU

Start Month (actual): 1 End Month (actual): 36 OBJECTIVES: The final objective of the WP is to provide: Life Cycle Assessment methodology and Life Cycle Inventory data are adapted in order to be useful as an input to energy externality quantification on one hand and energy modelling on the other. This Workpackage aims at developing and / or specifiying the standard LCA methodology with respect to spatial and temporal resolution, proper system definition and drawing of boundaries, and definition of additional inventory parameters. Software interfaces are specified and an exchange format is developed in order to facilitate data exchange between the LCA and the energy modelling tools. The objective of the first reporting period (months 1-12), was as follows:

- Identification of the needs of the other Research streams in terms of temporal and spatial resolution of LCA data

- Definition of the LCA methodology adjustments and the setup of the product systems - Identification of data transfer needs between the research streams RS1a, RS1b, and RS2

PROGRESS

Specification of the LCA methodology to be applied The LCA methodology has been specified in order to better support energy modelling and external costs assessment, this is achieved by

- differentiating four life cycle phases (construction, fuel supply, operation, and dismantling) - reporting on geographical and temporal aspects within the energy systems - differentiating emissions according to the population density where emitted - differentiating the size of particulate matter emitted

This specification is provided within the first deliverable.

Specification of the LCA database interface requirements The modelling and computation of consistent future scenarios with LCI data from more than 10 different partners is a real challenge for the LCA database system. The specification of the LCA software interface that allows data transfer within the RS1a. partners has been worked out and implemented in the LCA software system.

Specification of the data interface to external cost assessment and energy modelling Intensive discussions between the main representatives of Research Streams 1b. and 2. lead to the following specification of interfaces:

- LCA data from RS1a: LCA data will be supplied in simple spreadsheet-Format. - Energy modelling results from RS2: The appropriate data format still needs to be discussed.

Most probably, a simple data format, similar to the LCA data format is sufficient. DEVIATIONS

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None PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION ESU ESU worked on the specification of the LCA methodology and on the technical

specification of the LCA software interface (within RS1a) and the data interface between RS1a, RS1b and RS2. Discussions with representatives from RS1b and RS2 finally lead to the deliverable D1.1 co-written with DLR.

AMBIT 1) Summary and implementation of results of the EU-project ECLIPSE, both in terms of · requirements and limits of LCI data · applicability of data for energy-environment modelling 2) Identification of requirements with regard to the proper structuring of the LCA data, such as separating operation from construction phases, or distinguishing between domestic processes (taking place in a region modelled) and abroad processes

DLR Contribution to the specification of interfaces between LCA and external cost assessment and TIMES. Organisation of meeting between RS1a, 1b, 2a on interface issues; drafting of D1.1 deliverable on interfaces together with ESU; cooperation with RSIn-WP4

PSI Contributions to methodology specification within RS1a and for integration with other RSs.

IER Contribution to the discussion between RS1a, RS1b and RS2 on data interface between LCA results and input data for model application in TIMES. Issue of double counting in LCA and the following modelling. Dissemination of a list of power plants that will be covered in the MARKAL/TIMES model

IFU IFU worked on the specification of the central LCA database interface requirements. A component to manage the import and export of LCI data in the software system was developed and provided to the WP leader (ESU). Tests and validations have been performed, in order to ensure proper functioning of the component. IFU's own local LCA software tool was used to serve as a test environment for the interface for LCI data exchange.

KANLO KANLO participated indirectly in WP1 of RS1A via its participation in WP4 of RS Integration (Integration methodology). KANLO assumed a coordination role between RS2a and RS1a (and more particularly WP1 of RS1a). Designing coherent software interfaces between the Energy model (RS2A) and the LCA (RS1A) require such coordination and a common specification of software formats.

CHALMERS No participation planned in the reporting period

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 2 Technology Foresight methods in LCA

WP LEADER RISOE

Start Month (actual): 4 End Month (actual): 24 OBJECTIVES The objective of this work package is to develop and describe a methodological framework of technology foresight (TF) integrated with LCA in order to deal with technological changes and uncertainties in the long-term developments of the energy technology area. The methodological framework is to be used to assess the implications of long-term technological changes on the life cycle inventories of emerging reference technologies within WP 7 to WP 14. The starting point at the beginning of the project was that two main parts of the work would be 1) development of method framework; consisting in critical literature study, method development in general and specifically concerning dealing with uncertainties; and 2) experimental application of the developed method on selected parts of the future energy technologies. Moreover an assessment of the possibilities of co-ordination of the method framework with the methodology of experience curves in WP3 and guidance of transfer of results to the other key technologies should be made. PROGRESS A methodological framework of technology foresight integrated with LCA has been developed. It is described in a preliminary version that is ready for use in experimental application. As background for the method development, an interaction process was set up in the WP. An internal tool, ‘diary notes’, supporting the interaction was developed and described in order to ensure that perspectives from the practical work with the specific technology areas become of influence in the method development. DLR and Elsam made diary notes from their work with solar thermal technology and off-shore wind technology. A search and study of literature about TF-LCA and about dealing with uncertainty aspects in technological change processes was carried out. Apart from on internal meetings, the method suggestions and perspectives have been presented and discussed at research seminars with relevant scientists. DLR and Elsam participated in the method development discussions, DLR also concerning the relationship to the rest of the RS and NEEDS in general. Ambit made more limited contributions. It shall be mentioned that also CIEMAT has made contributions on solar thermal technology. RISOE was involved in all activities described above and in the following.

The methodological framework has been presented and discussed in the research stream in its preliminary version and the feedback has been gathered. The experimental application of the method framework has started in the areas of offshore wind (Elsam and RISOE) and solar thermal technology (DLR, CIEMAT and RISOE). A help tool: ‘list of knowledge areas and experts’ has been developed (draft). Preparation for the experimental method application in the PV area has been made (RISOE and Ambit). Originally it was the thought to include full methods of technology foresight in the developed method framework, however these are all more time consuming than what turned out feasible in the NEEDS project. There has therefore been focus on less time-consuming approaches and general TF principles that can work as integrated part of the other elements in the WP7-14 on the individual technology areas. The important ‘technology specification reports’ of WP7-14 and the TF-LCA method framework should, it can be said, match each other. It seems clear that the steps that have been taken in the RS move these in the same direction and a good coordination is obtained. The draft work made for the technology specification reports have been useful input in WP2.

An assessment of the possibilities of co-ordinating parts of the method framework with the experience curve methodology was carried out in collaboration with WP3. A workshop on foresight and experience curve methods was prepared and held in February 2005. DLR also contributed here.

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Together with WP3 a method tool for addressing the drivers of technological change in the different technology areas was developed. The method tool takes the form of a ‘set of questions’ systematically addressing different kinds of drivers and the resulting changes in technology. In connection with WP2 and the TF-LCA method framework, the set of questions works as a help tool creating overview and pointing out issues to analyse deeper e.g. with respect to market penetration or potential changes in environmental impacts of the technologies. A preliminary version of the set of questions was circulated in the RS and tested by a.o. Ambit, DLR and Elsam. Building on the comments given, the final version of the set of questions was made. DEVIATIONS The work started before planned as the RS kick-off meeting and general method discussions were going on already before M4. Solar thermal technology was included instead of hydrogen/fuel cells as one of the technology areas for experimental method application, as this would ensure a close connection of the work with the technology areas to the stream leader, DLR and the general method development of the stream. The experimental application in the PV area has not started yet and is thus slightly behind schedule. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION RISOE - Development of methodological framework (preliminary version) (literature

study; setting-up of process for method development; development and description of WP internal tool: diary notes; use of diary notes tool; method discussion with partners; method development specifically concerning uncertainty handling; presentation and discussion of method perspectives at research seminars; description of method framework; presentation and hearing of framework suggestion in RS; development of help tool: list of knowledge areas and experts (draft))

- Assessment and connection of foresight and experience curves (with WP3) (workshop on foresight and experience curve methodology, Feb 2005; (planning and participation); development of tool: ‘set of questions’; communication and discussion of method tool with RS partners)

- Experimental application of method, first part (first part of experimental method application on solar thermal technology; first part of experimental method application on wind; preparation for experimental method application on PV)

- WP coordination and management - Method coordination and dialogue RS and NEEDS - Participation in RS project meetings - Practical preparation and holding of general RS project meeting, May 2005 - Some method discussion and guidance for other key technology areas - Management of Risø participation in NEEDS

DLR - Participated actively in method development discussions - Method coordination RS and NEEDS - Description of ‘diary notes' - Participated actively in development of set of questions - First part of experimental method application on solar thermal technology - Development of help tool: list of knowledge areas and experts (draft)

Ambit - Comments on ‘set of questions’ - Suggestions of texts related to PV present and future tech and PV LCA/LCI results

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- Sharing of study on market evolution and shares up to 2050 for PV technology

Elsam - Participated actively in method development discussions - Description of ‘diary notes' - Participated actively in development of set of questions - First part of experimental method application on offshore wind

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 3 Experience curves

WP LEADER: LUND

Start Month (actual): 4 End Month (actual): 24 OBJECTIVES The goal of this work package is to assess and develop the experience curve methodology in the concept of Technology Foresight; this co-ordinated with WP 2. The workpackage will provide guidance to the technical teams to provide data that can be used to construct experience curves for new emerging energy technologies. These experience curves will be used as an input to the WP 7 to 14 on emerging future energy technologies, and as an input to stream 2.a (scenario evaluation).

The workpackage consists of two elements:

(i): To assess and develop the experience curve methodology in the concept of Technology Foresight. This work package intends to assess and discuss the use of experience curves to analyse and predict future energy costs. Like similar tools for trend analysis, experience curves are only suitable under circumstances of low uncertainty, series of incremental innovations, short time ranges, and on a high aggregated level. For this reason experience curves cannot be used for prospective analysis under circumstances characterised by high uncertainty, shifts in technology or market situation and long time ranges. However, such circumstances exist when we are dealing with new emerging energy technologies. We therefore analyse the combination of experience curves with judgemental methodologies, often used within the framework of Technology Foresight, such as expert panels, Delphi-surveys, scenarios, road-mapping, etc. The work is co-ordinated with work package 2.

(ii): To provide guidelines for the construction of experience curves for new emerging energy technologies. The WP will provide guidelines to the technical teams to collect data that can be used to construct experience curves for new emerging energy technologies. Focus will be on wind energy, PV, and fuel cells. The experience curves developed will be combined with a critical analysis of the data used and the curves constructed. PROGRESS The work is progressing covering the analysis of future energy cost development and the use of experience curves for analysing this. The work methodology to be used has been defined. Three different approaches will be used. First, cost development will be analysed and discussed based on experience curves. For each technology area studies based on experience curves will be collected and a critical analysis of these studies will be performed. The partners have been asked to provide studies on experience curves and to provide data for new experience curve if data have been available. Guidelines for how to construct experience curves have been distributed. The results have been drafted in a progress report. Second, cost development will be analysed and discussed based on reports on sources of cost reduction. Reports covering historical analysis of sources of cost reduction will be collected, critically analysed and used to discuss future possible sources of cost reduction. The work is progressing and reports are to be critically analysed with start end of September 2005. Third, cost development will be analysed and discussed based on “expert opinions” of sources of cost reduction. New information on sources of cost reduction will hopefully be gathered in workshops and interviews, performed in cooperation with WP2. Workshops and interviews have been planned and will take place in autumn 2005 – this in cooperation with WP2. DEVIATIONS The methodology of experience curves has been developed and assessed as planned. The analysis

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of cost development based on experience curves will to a minor extent be based on experience curves developed with in the project (as planned) but rather on a critical analysis of experience curves available in literature. This is due to the difficulties in finding new relevant and good data for the various technologies. Additional to the planned work, data related to sources of cost related data will be collected and analysed. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION LUND LUND has defined the methodological framework to be used for this

workpackage (see three approaches discussed above). This methodology has then been accepted by all partners in RS1a. LUND has collected studies based on experience curves, started a critical analysis of the data, and provided guidelines for how to construct experience curves. The results have been drafted in a progress report. LUND has initiated work on sources of cost reduction based on a literature review. The work is progressing and reports are to be critically analysed with start end of September 2005. Methods on how to analyse “expert opinions” of sources of cost reduction has been developed together with RISOE. New information on sources of cost reduction is to be gathered in workshops and interviews, performed in cooperation with WP2. A questionnaire has been distributed. Workshops and interviews have been planned and will take place in autumn 2005 – this in cooperation with WP2.

RISOE Methods on how to analyse “expert opinions” of sources of cost reduction has been developed by RISOE in cooperation with LUND. New information on sources of cost reduction is to be gathered in workshops and interviews, performed in cooperation with WP2. A questionnaire has been distributed. Workshops and interviews have been planned and will take place in autumn 2005.

IER IER is to contribute with analysis regarding experience curves used in energy modelling today. A short PM has been presented.

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 4 Parameterisation method supporting generalisation of LCI data

WP LEADER: PSI

Start Month (actual): 18 End Month (actual): 30 OBJECTIVES: The final objective of the WP is to provide: The environmental performance of energy technologies may vary in space and time, while their main characteristics remain the same. In order to facilitate transferability and generalisation of the LCI data across regions and for different time horizons, a method shall be developed that allows for LCI model parameterisation. No objectives within the first reporting period (months 1-12) PROGRESS

As planned, no work in the reporting period.

DEVIATIONS PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 5 LCI and cost database

WP LEADER: ESU

Start Month (actual): 13 End Month (actual): 39 OBJECTIVES: The final objective of the WP is to provide: Life cycle inventory (LCI) and cost data for new energy technologies, energy supply chains and background processes are accommodated, processed and calculated in a central database. LCA results and the information needed by Streams 1.b and 2.a are delivered in a standardised data exchange format. LCA results are made publicly available via the Internet. No objectives within the first reporting period (months 1-12) PROGRESS

Work starts after the end of the current reporting period (month 13).

DEVIATIONS In contrast to the initial idea to use the Ecoinvent database system, the work package partners agreed upon using the LCA software tool Umberto instead. This has no consequence, neither on the content level, nor on the total costs, nor on the timing. However, the item on "other costs" (of ESU and IFU) may be used differently and later than initially planned. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 6 Quantification of external costs

WP LEADER: DLR

Start Month (actual): 35 End Month (actual): 41 OBJECTIVES: The final objective of the WP is to provide: The quantification of external costs per unit electricity or heat generation requires the combination of the environmental interventions per kWh for each technology assessed (e.g. SO2-emissions per kWh, m2-land use per kWh, CO2-emissions per kWh) with the external costs per unit environmental interventions (e.g. Euro per tonne of SO2 emitted at a specific place). The environmental interventions are taken from the LCI database managed under WP5, the external costs per unit environmental intervention are a result from Stream 1b. PROGRESS

As planned, no work in the reporting period.

DEVIATIONS It is suggested to shift work to be done in WP6 from Month 19-30 to Month 35-41 because of the availability of data from RS1b. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N°7 Advanced fossil fuels

WP LEADER : PSI

Start Month (actual) : 4 End Month (actual) : 36 OBJECTIVES The final objective of the WP is to provide:

• a detailed technical specification of the most relevant advanced fossil fuels technologies, • a description of expected future technical developments, • a detailed inventory of the relevant energy and material flows covering the full life cycles of

all technologies under concern, and • a quantification and extrapolation of the future investment costs.

The objective of the first reporting period, covering months 4-12, were as follows:

• Identification of relevant conversion technology, e.g. IGCC, PFBC, GCC, CHP; • A description of expected future technical developments, based on drives for EC &

worldwide scenarios; • Preliminary technical specification of the candidate technologies for LCA modelling for the

time horizons set in this early phase of the project (2000; 2025: 2050); • An exemplary inventory of the energy and material flows for one power plant technology,

in the format required by the final LCA calculation; • Preliminary cost estimation from the literature; and • Identification of potential socio-economic implications.

PROGRESS • The Objectives for the initial period were met, although for some of the technologies

consolidation of information and final specification is still necessary in the following months.

• Draft of a technical specification report of the most relevant advanced fossil fuels technologies

• Cooperation with WP2 and WP3 on expected future technical developments based on technology foresight and experience curves considering the key scenarios of the European Commission in the field of energy and transport (questionnaire for WP 2 & 3 due in September)

DEVIATIONS 1 month delay in delivering D7.1 “Report on technical specification of reference technologies” because of re-specification of focus of the report at the last stream meeting. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION PSI • Preliminary list of reference technologies

• Preliminary specifications for reference technologies • Coordination and contributions to the draft of the technical specification

report • Interactions with other WPs, in particular WP1, WP2, WP3, WP9, WP15 • Identification of issues related to general integration within the project than

have influence on LCA approach • Data interface with RS2a for current fossil systems (pending)

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• Preliminary review of draft D9.1 IER • Contribution to specification of reference technologies

• Contribution to the draft of the technical specification report • Generation of draft LCI-datasets in the SPOLD-format • Interactions with WP1, WP2 , WP3

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N°8 Hydrogen technologies

WP LEADER INE



OBJECTIVES • To compile an overview of the current available hydrogen technolog; technical

specifications report • To supply LCA inventory list and raw data on the relevant quantity and quality of material

and energy that goes into a geothermal power plant, (electrical distribution system) electrolyser, compressor, dispenser

• To link the outcomes with WP 9 and provide data to WP2 and 3 on experience curves and future developments.

PROGRESS 1) The technical specification report has been compiled up to 80% of completeness, an overview gives the current scenario and then specific streams selected that can represent solid choices for future development. A distinctive boundary had to be set around selected types of technology because of overlap with other WP and technology that either connects to hydrogen technology upstream or downstream from hydrogen production. 2) The Inventory lists have been sent to the relevant partners, the ecospold computer software tested and the raw data for the four main components that have been selected for the study compiled. 3) An inquiry has been sent to selected industries and specialists within the field of electrolysis and storage techniques. The issues that should be fed into WP 2 are still in discussion and in progress DEVIATIONS The LCA inventories took longer than expected to obtain and process. Also the technical specifications for hydrogen technology had to be set within the work-package itself whereas at the onset of the project the boundaries were unclear and overlaps with other packages had not been cleared out. The boundaries were first set after overview of the current technology and the foreseeable development within each category. The main conclusion was to follow mostly the technology pathways that build on renewable energy, electrolysis and fuel cells. The preparations therefore became more complicated than planned, they took a longer time, yet the focus will remain clearer throughout the project. – which eventually will save time again. 1 month delay in delivering D8.1 “Report on technical specification of reference technologies” because of re-specification of focus of the report at the last stream meeting. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION INE Provided the outcomes of their LCA of a geothermal electrical power station

for comparison of the data on a similar but more recent plant in Iceland. POLITO collection of information about some hydrogen technologies, including small

scale reforming and fuel cells

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 9 Fuel cells

WP LEADER: POLITO

Start Month (actual): 4 End Month (actual): 36 OBJECTIVES: The final objective of the WP is to provide:

- a detailed technical specification of the relevant fuel cell technologies for power and CHP generation and the technical developments that are expected to take place until 2050

- a detailed inventory of the relevant energy- and material flows related to the full life cycle of electricity generation from fuel cells (life cycle inventory), and

- a quantification and extrapolation of the investment costs. The objective of the first reporting period (months 4-12), was as follows:

• Identification of relevant conversion technology; • a description of expected future technical developments, based on drives for EC &

worldwide scenarios; • preliminary technical specification of the candidate technologies for LCA modelling for the

time horizons set in this early phase of the project (2000; 2025; 2050); • an exemplary inventory of the energy and material flows for one fuel cell technology, in the

format required by the final LCA calculation; • preliminary cost estimation from the literature; and • identification of potential socio-economic implications

PROGRESS

Technical specification of the relevant technologies A preliminary overview of the existing fuel cell systems has been performed in order to find the most promising solutions for the state-of-the-art and the planned future scenarios. According to brainstorming within the WP participants the following technical solutions have been considered: - PEM fuel cells – Combined Heat and Power – small size (about 13 kW) and medium size (about

250 kW) - MC fuel cells – Combined Heat and Power – medium size (300kW) and large size (1000 kW) - SO fuel cells – Combined Heat and Power – one small system and one CHP system (250 kW). As

a future technology: hybrid system (1000 kW) A technical specification of the systems is provided within the first deliverable. System performance is described as a function of expected technical developments. A first roadmap until 2050 is developed.

Life Cycle Inventory

A preliminary specification of reference technologies for the state-of-the-art was completed. For each of the relevant technology lines (PEMFC, MCFC, SOFC) an LCA model was implemented within different software. For WP15 a list of the modelled processes, a list of needed background processes common for each technology and a first test data set in the ecospold format was prepared.

Quantification of costs System costs are estimated based on the specification of components, the material requirements and the analysis of specific production processes. A broad overview on the cost development in the past and on estimations for costs and installed power over the next 50 years of the considered systems was given. This data will be used by WP3 to implement experience curves.

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DEVIATIONS 1 month delay in delivering D9.1 “Report on technical specification of reference technologies” because of re-specification of focus of the report at the last stream meeting. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION POLITO As WP leader, POLITO coordinated action into WP, prepared the draft

document of the Technology Specification report and focussed its efforts in describing and analysing the PEMFC technology. It compiled the draft report on technology specifications for the PEMFC part. It listed the background processes and the process units as required by the work programme.

IFEU IFEU focussed its efforts in describing and analysing the MCFC technology. It compiled the draft report on technology specifications for the MCFC part. It listed the background processes and the process units as required by the work programme.

DLR DLR focussed its efforts in describing and analysing the SOFC technology. It compiled the draft report on technology specifications for the SOFC part. It listed the background processes and the process units as required by the work programme.

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 10 Offshore wind

WP LEADER: Elsam


- a detailed technical specification of the present offshore wind energy technologies and the technical developments that are expected to take place until 2050

- a detailed inventory of the relevant energy- and material flows related to the full life cycle of electricity generation from offshore wind power plants (life cycle inventory), and

- a quantification and extrapolation of the investment costs based on experience curves and demand scenarios.

The objective of the first reporting period (months 4-12), was to: - identify the present offshore wind energy technologies; - identify key drivers for technological development in offshore wind power; - describe expected future technical developments, based on an assessment of key drivers; - make a technical specification of offshore wind energy technologies to be used for LCA

modelling in the three time horizons; today, 2025 and 2050; - produce an exemplary LCI of the energy and material flows for the present wind power plant; - give a preliminary description of the investment cost; and - give a preliminary description of the potential socio-economic implications of offshore wind

energy PROGRESS

Technical specification of the relevant technology An overview of the offshore wind energy technologies on the market has been performed in order to determine the reference technology. Presently the dominant type on the market has been identified as a 2 MW, three bladed, upwind, pitch-regulated turbine with horizontal axis.

Life Cycle InventoryA reference technology for the offshore wind technology has been identified and based on this identified reference technology a Life Cycle Inventory data was collected. LCA model for the present offshore technology was completed and test datasets in the EcoSpold format were prepared and sent to WP5.

Quantification of costs The costs of wind power plants have been quantified preliminary on the basis of literature studies. In parallel the costs have been assessed through an empirical study of the investment costs of the installed offshore wind power plants since the beginning 1990’s. The empirical results will be used for the estimation of future costs in cooperation with WP3.

DEVIATIONS 1 month delay in delivering D10.1 “Report on technical specification of reference technologies” because of re-specification of focus of the report at the last stream meeting. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION ELSAM ELSAM prepared the draft document of the Technology Specification report

and focussed its efforts in describing and analysing the PEMFC technology. It

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compiled the draft report on technology specifications and listed the background processes and the process units as required by the work programme. Coordination with WP2 and WP3.

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 11 PV

WP LEADER: AMBIT


- a detailed technical specification of the relevant photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation technologies and the technical developments that are expected to take place until 2050

- a detailed inventory of the relevant energy- and material flows related to the full life cycle of electricity generation from solar thermal power plants (life cycle inventory), and


- Identification of relevant PV technologies and applications; - a description of expected future technical developments, based on assessment of key

parameters; - preliminary technical specification of the candidate technologies for LCA modelling for the

time horizons set in this early phase of the project (2000; 2025; 2050); - an exemplary inventory of the energy and material flows for one current PV system, in the

format required by the final LCA calculation; - preliminary cost estimation from the literature; and - identification of potential socio-economic implications

PROGRESS

Technical specification of the relevant technologies A preliminary overview of the existing PV systems has been performed in order to find the most promising solutions for the state-of-the-art and the planned future scenarios. A study on market evolution and shares until 2050 was carried out. Key technologies and key parameters for the present and future scenarios were identified. A technical specification of the systems is provided within the first deliverable. System performance is described as a function of expected technical developments. A first roadmap until 2050 is developed.

Life Cycle Inventory

A preliminary specification of reference technologies for the state-of-the-art was completed. For each of the relevant technology lines (c-Si, thin films) an LCA model was implemented within the software SimaPro. A list of the modelled processes, a first draft of the complete list of datasets, a list of needed background processes and a first test data set in the ecospold format was prepared as input for WP5 and 15.

Quantification of costs System costs are estimated based on the specification of components, the material requirements and the analysis of specific production processes. A broad overview on the cost development in the past and on estimations for costs and installed power over the next 50 years of the considered systems was given. These data will be used together with WP3 to implement experience curves. DEVIATIONS 1 month delay in delivering D11.1 “Report on technical specification of reference technologies” because of re-specification of focus of the report at the last stream meeting.

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PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION AMBIT • Literature search and first data selection

• First draft of the report “Technology Specification - Photovoltaics” • Study on market evolution and shares up to 2050 for PV technology • First examples of datasets and Ecospold conversion • Selection of the key technologies and the related key parameters for the

present and future scenarios • First draft of the complete list of datasets • Start data collection/integration as far as new technologies and

improvements of present technologies are concerned. ESU No contribution expected for the reporting period

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 12 Solar thermal power plants

WP LEADER: DLR


- a detailed technical specification of the relevant solar thermal electricity generation technologies and the technical developments that are expected to take place until 2050

- a detailed inventory of the relevant energy- and material flows related to the full life cycle of electricity generation from solar thermal power plants (life cycle inventory), and


- Identification of relevant solar thermal power generation technologies; - a description of expected future technical developments, based on assessment of key; - preliminary technical specification of the candidate technologies for LCA modelling for the

time horizons set in this early phase of the project (2000; 2025; 2050); - an exemplary inventory of the energy and material flows for one power plant technology, in the


PROGRESS

Technical specification of the relevant technologies A preliminary overview of the existing solar thermal power plants has been performed in order to find the most promising solutions for the state-of-the-art and the planned future scenarios. Work focused on three different systems:

- parabolic trough system (thermo-oil and direct steam generation) - solar tower system (actual and planned system) and additional - solar updraft tower (planned system of type Australia)

A technical specification of the systems is provided within the first deliverable. System performance is described as a function of expected technical developments. A first roadmap until 2050 is developed.

Life Cycle Inventory A preliminary specification of reference technologies for the state-of-the-art was completed. For each of the relevant technology lines (SEGS, central receiver, updraft tower) an LCA model was implemented within the software Umberto. For WP15 a list of the modelled processes, a list of needed background processes and a first test data set in the ecospold format was prepared. • Quantification of costs System costs are estimated based on the specification of components, the material requirements and the analysis of specific production processes. A broad overview on the cost development in the past and on estimations for costs and installed power over the next 50 years of the considered systems was given. This data will be used by WP3 to implement experience curves. DEVIATIONS 1 month delay in delivering D12.1 “Report on technical specification of reference technologies” because of re-specification of focus of the report at the last stream meeting.

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PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION DLR DLR worked on the specification of the relevant technologies, the description

of costs and learning curves of central receiver and updraft tower, reviewing of existing studies, implementing LCA of parabolic trough, central receiver and updraft tower, testing the data format ecospold and delivering the first test dataset to WP5.

CIEMAT CIEMAT worked on the specification of the relevant technologies, the description of costs and learning curves of parabolic troughs, reviewing of existing studies, filling in the gross list of interview partners and developing the diary notes (for WP2)

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 13 Biomass

WP LEADER: IFEU


- a detailed technical specification of the relevant electricity generation technologies from biomass and the technical developments that are expected to take place until 2050

- a detailed inventory of the relevant energy and material flows related to the full life cycle of electricity generation from biomass (life cycle inventory), and


- Identification of relevant bioenergy technologies; - a description of expected future technical developments, based on assessment of key factors; - preliminary technical specification of the candidate technologies for LCA modelling for the

time horizons set in this early phase of the project (2000; 2025; 2050); - an exemplary inventory of the energy and material flows for one power plant technology, in the


PROGRESS

Technical specification of the relevant technologies A preliminary overview of the existing bioenergy paths has been performed in order to find the most promising solutions for the state-of-the-art and the planned future scenarios. Work focused on two different biomass types: o Woody biomass like wood chips from SRF and residues from forestry o o Herbaceous biomass including annual crops like wheat or triticale, residues like straw and perennial crops like grasses A technical specification of the bioenergy systems is provided within the first deliverable. Ideas on the future development until 2050 are developed.

Life Cycle Inventory A preliminary specification of a reference technology for the state-of-the-art was completed. For a combined heat/power production system using poplar from short-rotation coppice an LCA model was implemented and a first test data set in Ecospold format was prepared. For WP15 a list of the processes to be modelled and a list of needed background processes was prepared.

Quantification of costs Literature was reviewed for information on system costs and learning curves. From this, preliminary cost data has been established for some of the bioenergy systems under consideration. DEVIATIONS 1 month delay in delivering D13.1 “Report on technical specification of reference technologies” because of re-specification of focus of the report at the last stream meeting.

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PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION IFEU IFEU worked on the specification of the relevant technologies, reviewing of

existing studies for cost and learning curves, implementing an LCA of a poplar-to-electricity bioenergy chain, testing the data format Ecospold and delivering the first test datasets to WP5.

USTUTT.ESA USTUTT.ESA worked on the specification of the relevant technologies and reviewing of existing studies, filling in the gross list of interview partners and developing the diary notes (for WP2)

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N°14 Advanced nuclear

WP LEADER : EDF

Start Month (actual) : 4 End Month (actual) : 36 OBJECTIVES The overall objective is to provide a comprehensive characterisation of the most relevant technologies for nuclear electricity generation, including • a general survey of the most relevant technologies and technical developments that are

expected to take place until 2050, • the technical definition of the relevant technologies, based on fast reactor and water

pressurised reactor • an inventory of the relevant energy- and material flows related to the full life cycle of

electricity generation from the technologies selected (life cycle inventory) ; The objective of the first 18 months-period is to provide a selection of the relevant technologies (WPR, Fast Reactor), and a draft version of the life cycle inventory. PROGRESS The report “Technology specifications : nuclear power plants” is being finalized ; it includes a general survey of the nuclear cycle, of the most relevant technology (GEN III and GEN IV), and a choice of three case studies (2000, 2025, 2050). It also includes socio economics considerations and quantification of costs DEVIATIONS 1 month delay in delivering D14.1 “Report on technical specification of reference technologies” because of re-specification of focus of the report at the last stream meeting. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION EDF Redaction of technical part

Redaction of socio-economic part, economic calculations Choice of a nuclear system for study purpose, proposition and modification of choice Data research Test of methodology asked by WP 1-6 and 15 Participation to Stuttgart and RISOE meetings Draft of deliverable report 4,5 PM spent

PSI PSI has provided a description of current generation costs for nuclear, as well as a summary of a literature search and own preliminary estimation on costs for future systems Rereading, propositions and ideas 0.5 PM spent

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RS 1a: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies WP N° 15: Background processes

WP LEADER: ESU

Start Month (actual): 04 End Month (actual): 30 OBJECTIVES: The final objective of the WP is to provide: Energy conversion technologies such as wind power plants or fuel cells require commodities such as structural steel, road transport services or waste treatment services but also highly specialised materials for electrolytes and cathodes of fuel cells. The modelling of these so-called background processes needs to be consistent with respect to the scenarios used in the energy modelling and in assessing environmental external costs. Hence, LCA data are required which take into account regional variability (if relevant) as well as temporal variability (e.g., change in requirements and emissions due to technology and / or market developments). In this work package LCA data are compiled for the most important and frequently used basic commodities (construction materials, chemicals, transport and waste treatment services). The objective of the first reporting period (months 4-12), was as follows:

- Identification of relevant materials, transport and waste treatment services within the life cycle of new energy systems;

- a description of expected future technical developments; - preliminary description of the key aspects of a technical specification of future developments in

view of LCA modelling for the time horizons (2000; 2025; 2050); PROGRESS

Technical specification of the relevant technologies An overview of factors influencing future production of materials (and thus future environmental impacts) was provided. The factors that may lead to quantified changes in inputs and outputs were identified. The specification of future developments in manufacturing processes and the kind of LCI information sources and technology levels used to model future situations were described. Three preliminary scenarios of the future energy supply were used to distinguish lines of technology development in the materials, transport and waste management sectors. This resulted in a draft report on technical specification of reference technologies

DEVIATIONS None PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION ESU ESU worked on the specification of the relevant factors that determine

technology development and the attribution of possible technology futures to the three preliminary common energy supply scenarios

IFEU IFEU worked on analysing known or probable political and technical developments to come for future transport processes and analysed possible changes in parameters for the different future scenarios.

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2.2.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones RS TITLE: Life cycle approaches to assess emerging energy technologies

RS LEADER: DLR

LIST OF DELIVERABLES Delivera

ble N°

Deliverable Title

Nature

Dissemination Level

Delivery

Due date

Delivery Actual/Fo

reseen date


D1.1

Specification and implementation of methodological developments

R RE 12 12

D7.1-D14.1

Reports on technical specification of reference technologies

R RE 12 13 Re-specification of focus of the report at the last stream meeting; coordination with RS2a

LIST OF MILESTONES Milestone Due for Achieved in /Expected

for M2 Kick-off workshop on LCA and cost assessment of future reference technologies

2 3

M3 Workshop on interfaces between LCA-external costs assessment – energy modelling

3 3

M4 Workshop on foresight and experience curve methodology

4 6

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2.3 RS1b: Development and improvement of a methodology to estimate external costs of energy

2.3.1 Workpackages Progress RS 1b: Development and improvement of a methodology to estimate external costs of energy WP N° 1: Improvement of Atmospheric Modelling

WP LEADER: MET.NO

Start Month (actual) 2

End Month (actual) 30

OBJECTIVES The main objective of this work package is to substantially improve the modelling of transport and chemical transformation of pollutants emitted in the atmosphere normally used for estimating external costs by coupling hemispheric, regional and local scale approaches. PROGRESS Task 1.1 First preliminary set of emission data provided by USTUTT.TFU. First preliminary run of the EMEP model in hemispheric scales using these data. Task 1.2Emission scenarios to be covered by source-receptor relationship required were determinated: Europe will be divided in approximately 60 regions. North African countries are considered separately using the hemispheric model. High and low emissions of SOx and NOx are considered. CLE 2010 and MFR 2030 emission levels are the emissions range to be covered. 2001 is selected as meteorological year. DEVIATIONS It is recognized that the complete description of all non-linear effects by a parameterisation scheme will be difficult with the resources available. Alternative approaches are considered. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION MET.NO Development of EMEP model at hemispheric scale: preprocessing of ERA-40

meteorological data for use by the EMEP model; evaluation of the quality of the new meteorological data in Europe; Use of the new emission data at the hemispheric scales.

USTUTT.TFU Processing of a preliminary emission data set in a polar stereographic grid projection.

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RS 1b: Development and improvement of a methodology to estimate external costs of energy WP N° 2: Impact Pathway Analysis via Soil and Water

WP LEADER: EPFL

Start Month (actual): 6 End Month (actual): 24 OBJECTIVES Improvement of the indirect exposure assessment of the impact pathway approach with respect to biotransfer in biota and to the inclusion of trade of food as well as consumption of fish from high sea catches. Extension of the impact pathway approach with respect to indirect exposure to hazardous substances that are not yet included in the methodology. PROGRESS Task 2.1: EPFL completed the milestone 8 months elapsed: “Advantages and limitations of the molecular connectivity indices (MCI) method evaluated and compared to experimental BCF”. Furthermore, EPFL developed a cow fate model for organic substances comprising degradation within animal tissue and successfully tested it against measured data. The model has demonstrated to overcome some major limitations of existing models and to improve assessment of indirect exposure of human populations due to meat and milk consumption. Some minor issues remain to be solved before implementation of the approach. Finalisation of this task in due time is expected.

Task 2.2: EPFL completed the milestone 6 months elapsed: “Data acquisition with respect to indirect exposure to marine fish finalized”. Implementation of the indirect exposure pathway via fish consumption including from high sea catches as the result of this task is anticipated without major issues.

Task 2.3: USTUTT.TFU has completed the milestone which was due after elapse of 2 months: “Data acquisition with respect to trade food modelling finalized”. The data have been processed to meet the modelling needs and implemented into the EcoSense multimedia extension WATSON. The implementation now needs to be tested.

Task 2.4: In collaboration with RS1a, USTUTT.TFU has compiled a list of substances for which the external cost assessment is to be carried out (milestone: “Identification of substances for which the existing indirect exposure assessment framework needs to be extended”). The list comprises the following substances: NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC, particles (not only total PM, but also PM10 and PM2.5) CO, cadmium, lead, nickel, arsenic, mercury, chromium VI, PAH (particularly BaP), benzene, PCDD/F, formaldehyde, radioactive substances and greenhouse gases. Of these, only heavy metals, POPs (i.e., PAHs, PCDD/Fs), benzene and formaldehyde require multimedia modelling approaches. The EcoSense multimedia extension WATSON can directly be used for non-volatile metals, while for the other substances some adaptations need to be made or different models may need to be employed. For radioactive substances, the approach taken by ExternE (methodology update in 1999) will be followed.

Task 2.5: Armines will complete this task towards finalisation of WP2. DEVIATIONS 1 person month for Armines has been transferred from WP3 to WP2 because Armines is volunteering to develop a simple mass balance model for trace elements in the marine environment including fish exposure.

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PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

EPFL Evaluation of advantages and limitations of the molecular connectivity index (MCI) method and comparison to experimental BCF.

Development and evaluation of a cow fate model including degradation in animal tissue.

Data collection regarding indirect exposure to marine fish.

USTUTT.TFU Data acquisition as regards trade of food completed. These were processed and implemented into the multimedia model.

Getting an overview on radionuclide assessments in the context of ExternE.

Armines Completion of this small task (1 p/m) is foreseen towards the end of WP2 when the needs for additional simple models will be clear.

RS 1b: Development and improvement of a methodology to estimate external costs of energy WP N°3: Examination of Casual Links between Pollutants and Health Impact

WP LEADER VITO



OBJECTIVES - Develop a more realistic model for quantification of health effects from air pollution taking into

account individual exposure patterns. - Perform sensitivity analyses:

o to assess implications of different causality mechanisms; o to evaluate different hypotheses about the geographic transferability of study results.

- Estimate the importance of health effects due to indoor combustion sources. PROGRESS After discussions in a small workshop, and taking into account literature and recent work and contacts with the scientific epidemiological and toxicological experts by IOM, Armines and VITO, it is now clear that a firm basis for the development of a set of concentration-response functions exists when compiling the work from IOM in CAFÉ, the work from Armines in other projects like DIEM and MAXIMA. Together with older material from ExternE and newer literature this will form the core set of c-r functions. Next we have identified seven items that deserve additional research: 1. Disentangling the mixture, toxicological assumptions, is SO2 causal, and sulphates? 2. Developing a better quantification model taking frailty, repair mechanisms, cessation lags, susceptibility into account.

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3. Life table analysis: crosschecking results, arguments against or in favour of cases or years 4. Personal exposure and ambient concentrations, including ultrafines 5. Background rates and morbidity endpoints 6. Transferability issues not covered yet 7. What does it mean for valuation (WTP, QALY, DALY…) These issues are now further developed. At the same time attention goes to application guidelines and sensitivity analyis. The work is in line with the different tasks in the DoW, and with objectives above. Task 3.1 Review of epidemiological and toxicological evidence . Task 3.2 Transferability issues. Task 3.3 Estimates of the effects of important indoor sources of energy use . Task 3.4 Estimate range of C-R functions. DEVIATIONS 1 person month from Armines has been transferred from WP3 to WP2 because Armines is volunteering to develop a simple mass balance model for trace elements in the marine environment including fish exposure. This does not otherwise affect the project development. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION VITO Literature review on epidemiological studies and on indoor exposure.

development of life-table analysis application for chrosschecking results. WP management.

IOM Extensive Literature review on epidemiological studies; selection of concentration response functions

Armines Literature review on epidemiological studies; study of toxicological mechanisms to explain concentration-response functions; selection of concentration-response functions for use in soil and water modelling

RS 1b: Development and improvement of a methodology to estimate external costs of energy WP N°4: Assessment of Biodiversity Losses

WP LEADER Econcept



OBJECTIVES Coordination with stream 1a with respect to the selection of land use categories, technologies or fuel cycles respectively for which the monetary value of biodiversity losses are determined and with respect to the countries/country groups investigated. Identification of data needs for work package 2. PROGRESS After starting research and coordinative activities, objectives were modified. It turned out that the goal of WP4 is to provide input data of external biodiversity costs for WP2, RS 1a and other research streams. These research partners need this information in good time. On the other hand, on the Stuttgart meeting of RS 1b (november 2004) it was decided, that WP4 has primarily to provide

61

external cost data per m2 land use change and per kg pollutant emitted. These data are needed as inputs into the models of other research streams and WP's. WP4 doesn't calculate fuel cycle costs for different technologies and countries any more (this is done by the modelling teams). Therefore, it was not necessary any more to wait for fuel cycle data of RS 1a but it was favourable to progress faster by developing the methodology for estimation external costs of biodiversity. The methodology for the external cost estimation was developed. The approach allows to monetize m2-costs of land use changes or land conversion, depending on the habitat type converted as well as the costs per kg SOx and NOx emitted for central European countries like Germany or Switzerland, etc. A draft of deliverable 4.1 which reported on the methodology and these provisional results was presented and discussed at the Paris meeting of RS 1b (end of may 2005) and finalized afterwards. It turned out that further research is to be done to validate the results of deliverable 4.1 with additional estimations, employing willingness to pay data. DEVIATIONS As explained above, research progress is well ahead of original planning. From the point of view of the WP's and RSs which need the WP4 results as input data, this is a good achievement, since WP4 provides input data for cost modelling. Shifting research activities ahead resulted correspondingly in a shift of resource consumption from future periods to the reporting period of month 1-12 (costs EU-budget months 1-12: 43'074€ instead of the originally planned 19'497€). To this end it is worth noting that deliverable 4.1 is much more comprehensive than originally planned, contains already first cost estimates and most of the methodology. It was deliberately delivered about 1 month late, after the Paris meeting of RS1b end of may 2005, to allow for feedbacks of other WP of RS 1b being taken into account PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

E c o n c e p t - Development of the methodology for estimation external costs of biodiversity losses due to land use changes and emission of air borne pollutants.

- Delivery of deliverable 4.1 - Pariticipation on RS1b-meetings in Stuttgart (2004) and Paris (2005)

ESU Services Not active yet, will become active in months 12-24

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RS 1b: Development and improvement of a methodology to estimate external costs of energy WP N° 5: Assessment of Climate Change

WP LEADER UniHH



OBJECTIVES To revise the climate change impact module of FUND To include SF6, PFCs and HFCs in the atmospheric module of FUND To extend the European Agricultural Sector Model EASM to the EU accession countries PROGRESS Revision of the climate change impact module of FUND

- Monte Carlo analysis added and tested; this required changes to almost all impact functions - Development aid added and tested

Inclusion of other gases - Radiative forcing code developed and tested - Scenarios developed and tested

Extension of the European Agricultural Sector Model: - Major crop yield data collected for 10 new member states and all major crops - Existing crop allocation data collected for 10 new member states and all major crops - Data on climate and soils for all 10 new member states - Formatting of all new data into EASM format - Calibration of cost data to approximate unobservable costs

DEVIATIONS Some of the economic data of agricultural enterprises for the new member states for the European Agricultural Sector Model (EASM) will be provisional until the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data are available. The deadline for FADN data submission was extended for the new member states by the European Commission. It is expected that these data will be available to researchers in autumn 2005 for some of the ten new member states and in spring 2006 for the rest. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION UniHH FUND

Programming, data collection, and model testing European Agricultural Sector Model: Data collection, formatting, and integration

EASM source code modification to include new member states

Participation in RS1b Meeting in Paris on 30/31 of May 2005 where the model EASM was presented to RS1b partners

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RS 1b: Development and improvement of a methodology to estimate external costs of energy WP N° 6: New Approaches for valuation of mortality and morbidity risks due to pollution

WP LEADER: UParis



OBJECTIVES Objectives (12 month):

- Determine the most appropriate way of soliciting the valuation for VOLY in the questionnaire.

- Develop self-administered PC based questionnaire, with software to permit easy adaptation to different countries, for contingent valuation of changes in life expectancy.

- Test this questionnaire in France, UK, Spain, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, and modify it as necessary.

PROGRESS A initial draft version of the VOLY questionnaire has been developed and tested by the partners by means of focus groups and verbal protocols. Based on the findings of the tests, a revised version has been prepared and translated/adapted for use in the respective countries. The results of the test of the revised version will be discussed at the project meeting in September, in order to prepare the final version of the questionnaire. DEVIATIONS The original DoW envisaged a computer-based questionnaire to be fill out by the respondents without the need for an interviewer. However, since the writing of the proposal, experience acquired from the application of the Krupnick et al. computerized questionnaire (NewExt project) has shown that too many respondents, especially the older ones, have trouble using a computer, which makes the results unreliable. Since that problem would be even more serious in Poland and Hungary, we decided to develop a traditional questionnaire, to be filled out in the presence of a (very good) interviewer.

PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION UParis

Lead the development of the VOLY questionnaire (English version); this involved organizing several meetings with the WP partners. Prepared and tested the French version by means of verbal protocols on approximately 40 respondents.

UAB A draft of the VOLY questionnaire has been developed and tested in Spain according to the indications given to the partners.

UBath Contributed to the discussions about the VOLY questionnaire; proposed complementary consumer-behaviour studies to estimate the VOLY implicit in different life-saving activities in EU; and developed a meta-analysis of cost per

64

quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in the UK.

ARMINES Helped with the development of the VOLY questionnaire.

UNEW Based on discussions in the earlier meetings Chilton and Metcalf designed a draft of the VOLY questionnaire for the UK. It was administered to 25 people in a focus group environment. An updated version was designed based on this and the French pilot survey over the summer.

UNINE Contributed to the conception of VOLY questionnaire, providing comments and suggestions; Tested the questionnaire, using : o a series of focus groups o a series of verbal protocols

SIU-IEM Contributed to the development of the VOLY questionnaire. Pre-tested the first versions of the questionnaire by focus groups (N=15) and individual interviews (N=20).

CUEC - Contributed to the conception of VOLY questionnaire the questionnaire - Translation of the questionnaire variants - Pre-testing - individual interviews N=28 and 2 focus groups N=9 (Jan to Aug 05)

WUDES

- Tested different ways of presenting risk reduction and life expectancy, using 40 in depth face-to-face interviews of inhabitants. - Translated and tested first version of VOLY questionnaire with 4 focus groups with 4 people each. - Translated and tested final version of VOLY questionnaire on sample of 30, using individual verbal protocols.

EdF Worked with UParis to develop the VOLY questionnaire: - integrating EdF knowledge on air pollution and experience gained during previous EdF studies on the valuation of life expectancy changes - testing the questionnaire, including debriefings to understand the answers. - Preparation of a final version of the questionnaire and application to a sample of 50 French people.

E-CO Participated in the development of the VOLY questionnaire, integrating E-CO experience with valuation of other health end points, with special emphasis on making the questionnaire suitable for benefit transfer testing.

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RS 1b: Development and improvement of a methodology to estimate external costs of energy WP N° 7: Improvement of methodology and Tools for the Impact Pathway Assessment and its Application

WP LEADER: USTUTT.TFU



OBJECTIVES • To implement the improved methodology of external costs assessment (into the tools) • To extend the geographical coverage of the methodology • To assess new external costs values • To estimate uncertainties of the methodology • To integrate the precautionary principle in the methodology PROGRESS Task 7.1. Assuring consistency of the developments in Stream 1b with the overall impact pathway approach (USTUTT.TFU) Consistency of developments inside and outside stream 1b was assured by intensive discussion with the partners. For this purpose several meetings have been settled including extra meetings in order to ensure consistency of air quality modelling results, the tool development planned, their application for calculations of generalised values in stream 3a and the integration of external cost values for energy modelling (stream 2a) and life cycle analysis (stream 1a). Furthermore, interchange and interlinkages between streams have been discussed as contribution to the reports for WP4 (Harmonisation of models and methodologies) in stream integration. Task 7.2 Implementation of new improvements (USTUTT.TFU, AUTH) Starting after the first 18 months. Task 7.3 Geographical extension (USTUTT.TFU) In order to locate emission of pollutants originating from production of intermediate products which are used as inputs to energy conversion processes in Europe, in a first step on the basis of the life cycle inventory EcoInvent 2000 important regions have been identified. These will be further refined by applying trade statistics. Furthermore, first global data on emissions of SO2, NO2, NMVOC, NH3, CH4, and CO have been extracted from GEIA emissions inventory and are currently processed in order to apply them for air quality modelling. The emission data are available at a resolution of 1 degree geographical longitude and latitude and for different source sectors. This data will be applied to further resolve the areas of high emissions within the identified regions. Furthermore, with data on global population in 2000 and 2015 from SEDAC in 0.5 and 2.5 geographical minutes resolution the most important receptor data necessary for impact assessment is currently processed. Next steps will be processing meteorological and land use data. Task 7.4 Application of the improved assessment framework (VITO, ARMINES,AUTH, UNI BATH, USTUTT.TFU)Starting after the first 18 months.

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Task 7.5 Consistency and quality of results and the precautionary principle(ARMINES, VITO) The uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion has been evaluated with detailed Monte Carlo calculations. The uncertainty distribution has been found to be lognormal, with geometric standard deviation 1.2 for local and 1.8 for regional dispersion. Furthermore, a method has been developed for providing simple and transparent estimates for the uncertainty of a sum of different impacts (e.g. health and global warming). DEVIATIONS None PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION USTUTT.TFU • Ensuring consistency of work between WPs and other Streams

• First data gathering for the geographical extension of the tools, particularly emission and population data

ARMINES • The estimation of the uncertainties of dispersion modelling has been

greatly improved by means of a Monte Carlo analysis. • A method has been developed for providing simple and transparent

estimates for the uncertainty of a sum of different impacts (e.g. health and global warming).

VITO No contribution within the 1st 12 months

AUTH No contribution within the 1st 12 months

UBATH No contribution within the 1st 12 months

RS 1b: Development and improvement of a methodology to estimate external costs of energy WP N° 8: Methodology for linking external cost estimation with economy/energy/environmental models and with LCA data

WP LEADER: KUL



OBJECTIVES • Development of a methodology to integrate the external cost computation based on the

'impact pathway approach' into different modelling frameworks (macroeconomic models/sectoral, energy models, local/national/multinational models) and its application to the energy modelling developed in this project.

• Test of the methodology by applying it to the analysis of both a 'local' and a country policy aiming at the internalisation of externalities.

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• Development of a methodology and definition of interfaces between LCA inventory data and external cost estimations, together with the corresponding task in stream 1a).

PROGRESS The work in the first year has concentrated on defining the methodology and the necessary data exchange for the link between the external cost computation and energy modeling as well as life cycle analysis, these are the tasks 8.1 to 8.3. Task 8.1 Discussion with members from other workpackages in this stream, especially WP1 – air quality modelling, in order to harmonise their output with the requirements for the task to provide generalised values in stream 3a which should be applied for energy modelling and life cycle analysis at a later stage. Task 8.2 For the linkage with life cycle analysis data exchange with stream 1a was discussed and a first methodology was developed. This includes especially the pollutants covered, the temporal and spatial disaggregation, the specification of the local environment, the height of release and the base years considered. Task 8.3 Concerning energy modelling each team has defined the type of data they needed or could deliver (emissions and the spatial and time dimension, damage, damage curve, curves linking emissions to air quality). A first approach for the integration of external cost in energy modelling has been proposed. Task 8.4 No activities for the first 18 months The work was done in close collaboration with WP4 of the Integration Stream and it is the starting point for the implementation of the specification in the energy model (to be done in the next phase). DEVIATIONS None PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION KUL Contributions to the development of the methodology for linking

external cost estimation to energy modelling USTUTT.TFU Contributions to the development of the methodology for linking

external cost estimation to energy modelling and life cycle analysis USTUTT.ESA Contributions to the development of the methodology for linking

external cost estimation to energy modelling KANLO No contribution within the 1st 12 months IMAACNR No contribution within the 1st 12 months

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2.3.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones RS TITLE Development and improvement of a methodology to estimate external costs of energy

RS LEADER USTUTT.TFU


ble N°

Deliverable Title

Nature

Dissemination Level

Delivery

Due date

Delivery Actual/Fore

seen date


D3.1

A review of literature

R PU M12 M12

D3.4

A selection of important indoor resources

R PU M12 M12

D4.1 Intermediate paper concerning the selection of investigated habitat categories, technologies, countries

R PU M6-8 M10

D6.1 Tested questionnaire and software

R PP M12 M12 Delivered. In contrast with original DoW, traditional questionnaire used, because of experiences from NewExt project


for M2.1 Data acquisition with respect to trade food modelling finalized

Month 7 Month 7

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M2.2 Data acquisition with respect to indirect exposure to marine fish finalized

Month 11 Month 11

M2.3 Identification of substances for which the existing indirect exposure assessment framework needs to be extended

Month 11 Month 12

M4.1 Selection of investigated habitat categories, technologies, countries (D4.1)

Month 6.-8 Month 10

M6.1 Development of software and initial version of questionnaire.

Month 6 Month 6

M6.2 Tested questionnaire (D6.1) Month 12 Month 12

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2.4 RS 1c: New Externalities Associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy

2.4.1 Workpackages progress RS 1c: New Externalities Associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy WP N° 1: Assessments of Externalities Concerning the Extraction and Transport of Oil

WP LEADER : FEEM



OBJECTIVES The main objective is to assess the externalities related to the supply oil into Europe. This will be done by analysing operational burdens and impacts linked with extraction and transport of oil (both by maritime and by pipeline). The potential externalities due to major accidents (like oil spills) will be referred to probabilistic externalities. The work has started with the assessment of present and future (2010-2020-2030) European oil supply-demand balance, and still continues (Task 1.1). The aim of Task 1.1 is to determine the expected amount of potential oil export into Europe by supplier country. Task 1.2, already started, will assess present and future oil flows and routes, which will be based on the results obtained in Task 1.1. Task 1.3 will assess the most critical passages on the oil tanker routes. Task 1.4 will assess the risk reduction potential due to future penetration and use of new tanker technology and safety regulation. Work still goes on independently from Task 1.1 and Task 1.2. PROGRESS The analysis on the present situation (Tasks 1.1 and 1.2) has already been completed, and works on future evolution (2010-2010-2030) still continue. Due to the reasons explained in the general RS 1c activity description,, deliverable 1.1 is planned to be submitted in M16 instead of M12. Task 1.3 and the Tasks concerning the assessment of externalities (Tasks 1.5 to 1.8) will start in the second planned period. Task 1.4: A review in the field of new regulation and technologies contributing to improve the safety of tanker vessels and helping to control and master the traffic has been initiated using available data from national and international authorities.

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Meanwhile, FEEM and POLITO has initiated the pre-testing of risk assessment methodology for the evaluation of the risks involved in transporting oil by tanker to Europe. DEVIATIONS The supply assessment of oil exporting countries is already well advanced. As explained before, due to the delayed provision of the EU demand figures from RS 2a, it was not possible for WP1 to submit Deliverable 1.1 (planned by M12) on time. For the moment we base our work on the hypothetical demand figures taken from the EC’s “European Energy Transport and Trends to 2030” study (which was released in January 2003) in order to have a preliminary insight on the magnitude of oil and gas import requirements. As a result, we plan to finalize and submit deliverables 1.1 by the end of 2005 (M16). It is again important to highlight that this will not cause any delay in the subsequent tasks of WP1 as we are in parallel already working on the routes and flows definition. It has moreover been agreed to start pre-testing the methodology to be used for Task 1.5 (Assessment of burdens) and Task 1.7. (Assessment of the additional potential externalities due to accidents) before the planned working period. This exercise is also relevant for Task 1.4 (Assessment of risk reduction potential due to technology and regulation). The pre-testing consists in fine-tuning risk-assessment methodologies and applying them to a selected oil tanker route of European relevance. Involved in this exercise are FEEM, Politecnico di Torino (POLITO), and CEDRE. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION FEEM Tasks 1.1 and 1.2: In close cooperation with OME examined and assessed

present and future (2010-2020-2030) a) Oil reserves and resources potential in the countries which are split between OME and FEEM. b) Production capacity in potential suppliers c) Domestic demand in supplier countries d) Export potential in supplier countries Tasks (1.4, 1.5 and 1.7): In close cooperation with Politecnico di Torino, has initiated the pre-testing of risk assessment methodology for the evaluation of the risks involved in transporting oil by tanker route to Europe. The methodology under scrutiny aims at capturing the different dimensions of risk one within a structured approach and involves the estimation of professional judgment based risk equivalence – i.e. the chance that a spill will occur with the relevant technologies and regulations. The exercise has so far consisted in :

• Setting-up and fine-tuning of the methodology; • Collection of the relevant information concerning the route

Novorossiysk (Russia)- Augusta (Italy); • Application of this methodology to the aforementioned route.

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OME In close cooperation with FEEM examines and assesses present and future (2010-2020-2030) a) Oil reserves and resources potential in the countries which are split between OME and FEEM. b) Production capacity in potential suppliers c) Domestic demand in supplier countries d) Export potential in supplier countries In addition, where available, compares the results with available international studies in order to check plausibility.

CEDRE Task 1.4: The review in the field of new regulation and technologies contributing to improve the safety of tanker vessels and helping to control and master the traffic has been initiated using data issued by national and international authorities.

• Regulation: the analysis is considering all regulations concerning the improvement of vessel crew training (ISM code and +), the training of MRCC/VTS personal and PSC inspectors at European level. Actually related resolution and decision prepared by IMO and the European Commission have to be analysed as for their possible impact on the maritime safety.

• New technologies: The study is taking into account both the new sensors (Automatic Identification System; Long Range Identification and Tracking; High Frequency Surface Radar; satellite SAR radar…) and the new information and monitoring systems that are under discussion or development (Vessel Traffic Services; Ship Routing Systems; for instance SpatioNav; Trafic 2000, French contribution to the European SafeSeaNet)

• CEDRE supports the risk-assessment methodology pre-testing exercise by providing information on new technologies and other technical matters concerning oil spills.

POLITO Tasks (1.5 and 1.7): In close cooperation with FEEM, POLITO has initiated

the pre-testing of risk assessment methodology for the evaluation of the risks involved in transporting oil by tanker route to Europe.

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RS 1c: New Externalities Associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy WP N° 2: Assessments of Externalities Concerning the Extraction and Transport of Gas

WP LEADER : OME



OBJECTIVES Main objective of WP 2 is to assess operational and accidental externalities related to the supply gas into Europe. These will be analysed in terms of extraction and transport of gas (both by LNG tankers and by pipeline). The work has started with the assessment of present and future (2010-2020-2030) European gas supply-demand balance (Task 2.1). The aim of this Task was to determine the expected amount of potential gas imports in Europe by supplier country. Task 2.2 will assess present and future gas flows and routes, which is based on the results obtained in Task 2.1. Assessment of Burdens (Task 2.3), Impact on the environment, health and economy (Task 2.4), potential externalities due to accidents by risk analysis (task 2.5) and economic valuation of the impacts (Task 2.6) will be studied in the second reporting period. PROGRESS Task 2.1 is already well advanced. However, as was the case in WP1, since the European demand figures have not yet been obtained from RS2a, we are not able to finalise the report. Therefore, the deliverable is planned to be submitted in M16 instead of M12. Task 2.2 has already started and will be finalised in the second planning period as planned. DEVIATIONS The supply assessment of gas exporting countries is completed. As explained before, due to the delayed provision of the EU demand figures from RS 2a, it was not possible for WP2 to submit Deliverable 1.1 (planned by M12) on time.For the moment we base our work on the hypothetical demand figures taken from the EC’s “European Energy Transport and Trends to 2030” study (which was released in January 2003) in order to have a preliminary insight on the magnitude of oil and gas import requirements. As a result, we plan to finalize and submit deliverable 2.1 by the end of 2005 (M16). PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

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OME Task 2.1 is close to finalisation. D2.1 is planned to be submitted in M16 instead of M12. Work on Task 2.2 continues. Existing, planned and potential pipeline routes have already been identified.

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RS 1c: New Externalities Associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy WP N° 3: Assessments of Externalities concerning the transmission of electricity

WP LEADER : Vito



OBJECTIVES Background: Electricity exchanges relate to electricity interconnections between EU countries as well as to electricity imports by EU countries from bordering countries/regions. The latter refer mostly to existing projects to build gas fired power plants in Russia and/or North Africa and to export electricity to the EU either by overhead high voltage lines, cables or by submarine cables. The options of interest to the EU are influenced mainly by the direct costs of the alternatives but also by the relative external costs associated with them. The work package will select few case studies with a source in the EU and an alternative source outside. Although electricity transmission is essential for European electricity market, and the installation of new lines are often controversial, there are neither generic data nor models to assess externalities associated with transmission. Objective: This work package aims to develop an accounting framework for the assessment of external costs associated with the transmission of electricity. It will identify key impacts, select key parameters and values from literature to quantify and value external costs. It will demonstrate its application in a case study. The approach follows the generic impact-pathway approach: task 3.1 description of technologies task 3.2 assessment of burdens task 3.3 impact assessment for selected key impacts task 3.4 economic valuation of impacts. PROGRESS The project has been successful in developing the backbones of the accounting framework to be developed, and for the identification of the basic scientific information and data to fully develop the framework. A lot of progress has already been made in the identification, impact assessment and valuation of the health impact electro magnetic fields. Tasks 3.1 description of technologies and approach: This WP looks at transmission of electricity from power plants or grids to consumers or other grids, with a focus on long distance transport. Local distribution is not considered. Main technologies are overhead lines, underground cables and sea cables. Environmental impacts depend on the choice of technologies or their combinations, the different environments where the lines pass, and the use of the infrastructure. Consequently, total impact of transmission over the total distance is the sum of a number of different technologies, surrounding environments, etc. To reflect this situation, this WP will develop a number of building blocks that represent typical situations. The building blocks will be representative for most potential transmission situations in

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the EC. For each building block, external cost indicators will be developed. The total impact will be a weighted sum of a combination of building blocks. A simple model will be built and demonstrated to calculate total impacts for transmission cases. Tasks 3.2 Identification and assessment of burdens. To identify the ‘typical situations’ a technology impact matrix has been developed based on literature and some simplified assessments to identify priority impacts. Major impacts and their key parameters are impacts from transmission losses (depending on technology-distance), EMF (Electro Magnetic Fields) emissions on public health (depending on population density), visual intrusion (depending on landscape), ecosystems; LCA impacts of materials and some specific impacts. The final detailed selection of technologies, typical environments and relevant parameters is an iterative process that will take into account the results of impact assessment and valuation. Some progress has already been made for impact assessment of the EMF. Although evidence of impact on health is weak and controversial, and impacts are likely to be small it is an important element in public debate and the impact will be quantified and valued. It has to be decided later whether or not it will be included in the main set of impacts, or included for sensitivity analysis. As the issue is controversial and impacts are likely to be low compared to other costs, a simplified approach has been developed to assess the relative importance of the issue. DEVIATIONS The specificities of the selected key impacts make it more difficult to report progress in terms in the general framework: technologies-burdens-impacts-valuation. This framework works well for air pollutants but less for impacts associated with electricity losses from transmission, health impacts associated with EMF from transmission lines and visual intrusions from overhead transmission lines. Therefore, a more specific approach has been developed, which is both consistent with the overall impact pathway approach and adapted to the specificities of electricity transmission. This has resulted in a merging of deliverables D3.1 and D3.2. Both progress and time spent lags behind the original objectives for the first year for Vito, due to several reasons. It took more time to start up the activity, and it was required to first elaborate a more adequate approach before the more detailed work could start. The work programme for the second year has been adapted to guarantee progress. A more coherent structure of reporting for tasks 3.3 and 3.4 has been elaborated, which required shifting of some subtasks. The allocation of manpower has been adapted to the new structure and for Vito some manpower from tasks 3.1 and 3.2 has been shifted to new subtasks in task 3.4. Shifting of subtasks requires adaptation of the timing for WP 3.3 to month 21. As new subtasks have been developed for WP 3.4, timing is extended to month 24, especially to allow more time for integration and review. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

Vito Task s 3.1 and 3.2 are finalised E-CO In collaboration with Vito, development of approach, with specific attention to

valuation issues and visual intrusion issues.

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First selection of literature and studies related to economic valuation of visual impacts from transmission lines. Identification of sources for valuation of health impacts.

OME OME contributed to the assessments of transport schemes and burdens.

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RS 1c: New Externalities Associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy WP N° 4: Assessment of externalities concerning the import/transport of other energy vectors (in particular hydrogen)

WP LEADER : POLITO



OBJECTIVES Main objective of WP 4 is to assess externalities related to transportation of some energy vectors: hydrogen, syngas, coal-water slurry, hythane, town gas, coal-oil mixtures and biofuels. The work was carried out starting from Task 4.1: Assessment of hydrogen (and other energy vectors) transport schemes. A survey on hydrogen and other energy vectors transportation schemes was performed: it included pipelines and ships transportation schemes together with batch transportation of fuels. Both long distance and local distribution systems where assessed identifying possible bottlenecks in their adoption. Then, Task 4.2 (Assessment of the future penetration and use of technology) led to the analysis of hydrogen and other energy carriers’ advantages in terms of costs in order to allow these vectors to impact on the market and penetrate consistently the global energy system. R&D achievements about hydrogen and other carriers supply systems and final use devices were also considered. PROGRESS Task 4.1 led to the completion of Deliverable 4.1: Qualitative report of present transport schemes for hydrogen and other energy vectors. Task 4.2 led to the completion of Deliverable 4.2: Report on future penetration of hydrogen (with hints on other energy vectors) as an energy carrier. DEVIATIONS None PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION POLITO POLITO carried out work on both tasks issuing in due time the two mentioned

Deliverables 4.1 and 4.2. OME OME contributed to the transport scheme assessment

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RS 1c: New Externalities Associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy WP N° 6: Scientific and technical Coordination

WP LEADER : OME



OBJECTIVES The complexity of the stream and the large number of participants require an efficient scientific co-ordination and management within the stream to ensure the achievements of specified objectives. The goals of this WP are o Co-ordinate the activities within the different work-packages and tasks, discuss and resolve

technical issues, define technical directions and identify alternative solutions; o Verify the consistent and timely development of the project plan and, when necessary, take

appropriate actions to correct deviations from the schedule; o Controlling and reviewing technical work carried out within tasks; o Organise four research-stream coordination meetings (kick-off meeting at month 0 and three

meetings at month 6, month 12 and month 18). In these meetings, general lines of action will be defined and strategic decisions will be taken. These meetings will in addition serve to solve technical issues by general consensus with all participants of the stream;

o Create a web-site with all the deliverables of Research Stream 1c open to all NEEDS project participants and which will allow to give input to Research stream 3b;

o Establish and supervise links to other Research Streams, o Represent stream 1c in the NEEDS steering committee; o Draft the progress reports and the final synthesis report for Research Stream 1c. PROGRESS o Organised kick of meeting in OME premises. o Organised coordination and methodology meeting in OME premises. o WEB site information on RS1c has been updated. o Drafted progress report DEVIATIONS None PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION OME Organisation of meetings, WEB site information on

RS1c; drafting progress report

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2.4.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones RS 1c: New Externalities Associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy

RS LEADER OME


ble N°

Deliverable Title

Nature

Dissemination Level

Delivery

Due date

Delivery Actual/Fo

reseen date


D4.1

Present Transport Schemes for Hydrogen and Other Energy Vectors

R CO M6 M6

D3.1

Case studies in terms of technologies and locations

R CO M6 M12 Integration of D3.1 into D3.2

D3.2 Burdens of electricity transmission

R CO M9 M12 Unforeseen methodological and technical difficulties

D1.1 Present and future supply sources to satisfy EU oil imports

R CO M12 M16 Late delivering of the EU demand figures from RS 2a

D2.1 Present and future supply sources to satisfy EU gas imports

R CO M12 M16 Same as above

D4.2 Future penetration of hydrogen as an energy carrier

R CO M12 M12

D6.1 Research Stream 1c 12 month progress report

R RE M12 M12 The report has been integrated in this activity report

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RS 1c: New Externalities Associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy

RS LEADER OME

LIST OF MILESTONES Milestone Present Transport Schemes for Hydrogen and Other Energy Vectors

Due for M6

Achieved in /Expected for M6

Case studies in terms of technologies and locations

M6 M6

Burdens of electricity transmission M9 M12

Present and future supply sources to satisfy EU oil imports

M12 M16

Present and future supply sources to satisfy EU gas imports

M12 M16

Future penetration of hydrogen as an energy carrier

M12 M12

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2.5 RS 1d: Extension of geographical coverage The activities of this Stream will start after month 18, therefore there is nothing to report for the first 12 months.

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2.6 RS 2a: Energy systems modelling and internalisation strategies, including scenarios building

2.6.1 Workpackages Progress RS2A: Energy systems modelling and internalisation strategies, including scenarios building WP1 “Model design and interfaces”

WP LEADER: KANLO



OBJECTIVES The general objective of WP1 is the design of a common, comparable and combinable methodology for modelling the EU-25 Member State and other European countries. The chosen approach will not only cover the typical boundaries of energy systems models but also take into account externalities and other flows (energy, materials, emissions) occurring from “cradle to grave” (LCA approach and external cost approach). The detailed objectives are best described by means of the six tasks as follows:

Task 1. Design of the Reference Energy System (RES) common to all country models. This task determines the basic model structure, i.e. the list of energy service demands, energy carriers, materials, and emissions. The RES needs to be agreed upon by all country modellers, before starting the construction of the country models, and before the designing the data interfaces (see Task 1.3). Note that the determination of the common list of technologies and their characterisation belongs to other work packages and is postponed until month 12 or later.

Start: Month 1 – End: Month 4

Task 2. Selection of the main common data sources to be fed into the country models. Examples of common data sources include IEA World Energy Outlook, Eurostat, etc. which establish the models initial year’s calibration. Some data sources that are specific to individual countries are not part of this task.

Start: Month 3 – End: Month 4.

Task 3. Design and implementation of spreadsheet interfaces that establish the model’s basic structure and hold the fundamental assumptions, with energy commodities, material flows, energy service demands, technological data, emissions and damage functions consistent with ExternE/LCA base needs, according also to the guidelines of WP8 of RS1b. This task includes the preparation and use of custom conduits to read data from the principal data sources, in their original form as well as the set-up of input/output formats and reporting tables for soft-linking and integration with ExternE/LCA, to ensure a transfer of data, direct or manual.


Task 4.

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Update of the VEDA database interface that allows the user to do a variety of changes on top of the basic structure, like changing assumptions on demands or technologies, changing/adding user-defined relationships, etc.


Task 5. Improvement and update of the TIMES model generator;

Start: Month 8– End: Month 14

Task 6. Setup the Pan – EU trading variables, in order to ensure the linkage between the countries (export and import of energy) in the open EU energy market, technology spill-over as well as the integrability of the 25 country models;


STARTING POINT (Month 1) The following existing tools and approaches existed at the inception date of the WP:

- The TIMES model’s equations and GAMS program as developed under the sponsorship of ETSAP

- Earlier TIMES and MARKAL models (e.g. a World model with 15 regions), which could be used as starting point for designing the Reference Energy System and the technological database for the NEEDS model.

- An earlier version of the VEDA-FE interface, previously developed for MARKAL and TIMES models.

- An earlier version of the templates (a template serves to import the initial year data into a model, as well as specify the RES of the model in period 1).

- Much experience in large scale multi-regional energy modelling via partial equilibrium approaches based on detailed technological descriptions.

PROGRESS Progresses achieved on each of the six tasks listed in the Objectives are here described: 1.The Common RES was designed starting from a detailed proposal by KANLO, submitted to all partners, and altered over a four-month consulting period (Months 2 to 5). First, a special “RES Workgroup” was constituted by members from KANLO, ECN, KUL, USTUTT -, and IMAA – CNR who analysed the initial RES and made changes. The revised proposal was then sent to all partners involved in WP1 and WP2, and their suggestions were submitted to all partners and eventually progressively incorporated in order to arrive at a final RES common to all country models. A partly completed version of the RES was presented and discussed in detail at the November 2004 RS2a kick –off meeting in Firenze, and further alterations took place based on recommendations made in Firenze. In particular, an “Industry RES Workgroup” consisting on members from CHALMERS, ECN, IMAA - CNR, KUL, and TTU was constituted and took the responsibility to refine the design of the industrial RES. The complete common RES was formally approved at the April 24-26 workshop of the RS2a stream held in Madrid. After the Madrid meeting, some minor changes were proposed by few partners, due to country specific issues and a closer look at national data, and approved by all partners through emails. 2.The common data sources IMAA - CNR and KANLO compared analytically the main existing sources for energy balances

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(IEA International Energy Agency, Eurostat, ENERDATA, EIA-DOE), stock of plants (ENERDATA/Odyssee, CECED European Committee of Domestic Equipment Manufacturers, GFK, IAEA, EIA/SAGE and/or EFDA, Technical reports), and environmental data (ExternE / LCA, UN Statics division, WE) and acted as responsible of relationships with the Eurostat Bureau, managing the full access to the Eurostat database given by the Statistical office to RS2a and providing KANLO with pre-elaborated data. The preliminary conclusions on data sources were presented in Firenze, November 2004 and the Eurostat database of the European Commissions (http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int) was chosen for the base-year energy balance of all countries. The section ‘Energy and Environment’ of this database provides all the energy flows (production, transformation, consumption, trade) for the base-year (2000), as well as the net installed capacities for power plants, several technological parameters for nuclear plants (efficiency, availability, etc.) and import/export figures. IMAA - CNR obtained special access to the Eurostat database and downloaded all tables required to build the energy balance of all countries. KANLO imported all tables in the VEDA-BE interface for an easier access by all partners during March 2005. The purpose was to provide to all partners an easier way of accessing the Eurostat data and managing the data related to their countries of interest. The VEDA-BE database of Eurostat data was available on Internet from April and finally distributed to all partners at the Madrid workshop, where common data sources were finalized and formally approved. In addition to the base-year energy balance, the Eurostat database, along with an annual publication on energy and transport (The Pocket Book: http://europe.eu.int/comm/dgs/energy_transport/figures/pocketbook/2004_en.htm), gives most of the data required to model the road and rail transport modes. Finally, a separate document of Eurostat provides additional information on combined heat and power (CHP) plants for the EU15 countries. The information provided by Eurostat was completed with: (1) road and rail transport data from the PRIMES model of the MEET project (1995) for 15 countries, (2) fractional shares for residential and commercial fuel consumption by end-use and building type for 18 countries, (3) electricity and CHP technology capacities by type (public/auto-production) and by fuel for all countries, from EIA-DOE. The other data come from national sources and vary for each country. Consistency problems with the Eurostat database have been found as illustrated in the Deviation section. 3.Spreadsheet Interfaces: The interfaces fall in two main categories:

(i) The NEEDS templates are a set of intelligent, complex spreadsheets that contain all data pertaining to the initial period of the TIMES model. The templates are Excel spreadsheets that lay down the basic structure of the model and hold the fundamental data and assumptions to calibrate the energy flows (production, transformation and consumption) of the base-year (2000). There are five sets of templates for each of the 29 countries, one template per main sector: upstream (supply), electricity generation, industry, residential/commercial/agriculture, and transportation. Each template is designed with the following characteristics: (1) it allows the automatic import of large datasets from the common data sources (via a special utility) and consequently an easy way of updating these data annually, (2) it reduces to a minimum the number of data entries to be made manually by each country modeler, (3) it is formatted to guide the country modeler regarding which entries are compulsory, optional or not required, and (3) (4) it is automatically “readable” by VEDA in order to create the model’s database. An initial set of templates was developed by KANLO over the October 2004 to April 2005 period, and distributed to all partners at the April 2005 RS2a workshop, when it was used for training purposes. Each partner imported the templates and KANLO members gave a 3-day training session in the use of the templates. Following suggestions made by the partners at the workshop, many changes were made to the initial version, and finalized templates were distributed over the period from

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http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/

http://europe.eu.int/comm/dgs/energy_transport/figures/pocketbook/2004_en.htm

May to August 2005. KANLO also distributed specific instructions to use each template with the first version, as well as a specific list of changes with new versions.

(ii) The technology Repository is an Excel file with a single worksheet containing the technical and economic information on each technology that the model may use in its optimization of the energy system over the entire time horizon. The design of the Repository was altered to accommodate additional parameters that will eventually describe the life cycle emissions and the external costs to be provided by other streams. There is a single technology Repository for all countries. A facility exists in VEDA to regionalize technology attributes (e.g. to increase and decrease the investment costs of some technologies in some countries).

4. The version of VEDA-FE (front-end) that existed in September 2004 had been devised for use with the MARKAL model, and only partially adapted to the TIMES model. During the first six months of the WP, VEDA-FE was significantly modified in order to fully accommodate the entire set of TIMES parameters and sets. In particular, the list of TIMES attributes that are supported by VEDA-FE, with the corresponding names that can be used in the templates, was distributed at the Madrid workshop. This complete overhaul of VEDA culminated in VEDA version 2 in early Summer 2005. 5. The TIMES model generator underwent several improvements and corrections during the September 2004 to March 2005 period. In addition, some minor errors in the GAMS code were found and corrected. A major new TIMES feature will soon be implemented, under a separate project sponsored by ETSAP. Under this new feature, it will be possible to optimize the energy system under uncertainty on several major parameters, using Stochastic Programming. In the next two months, we shall examine whether additional modifications of the TIMES equations are needed for the NEEDS project. It should be noted that all modifications to the TIMES model generator were made by VTT, with some contributions by KANLO. 6.The Pan-European trading variables were the object of several discussions and exchanges at the time the RES was being designed. In particular, the partners collectively decided which commodities should be tradable in the Pan-European model, and which not. For instance: in the special case of electricity, it was decided that only high voltage electricity was to be traded. Further work will be undertaken from months 12 to 18, to finalize the list of trade variables, and to devise the VEDA data handling tools related to trades. DEVIATIONS Consistency problems with the Eurostat database were found. In particular, some energy consumption values posted by EUROSTAT in the National Energy Balances has changed between March and June 2005, some non zero values were missing and some other were significantly inconsistent with national data statistics. This has caused extra efforts for redoing the whole procedure of data extraction and template filling out, that have been overcome, with minor changes in the time schedule of tasks and in the release of deliverables. Other minor deviations to the work plan concerned small changes in the scheduling of some tasks within the 12 month period. For instance, the RES design was completed in five months instead of 4, some of the templates were completed in Summer 2004 rather than Spring. However, these delays did not have a significant impact on the completion of the deliverables and of the various tasks within the initial 12 month period. The templates that required the most inputs from the country modeler (RCA: residential/commercial/agriculture, IND: industry, SUP: supply) were delivered first and on time in May 2005. The Transportation template was delivered in June 2005, with a maximum of national of data (a minimum of inputs is thus required from the country modelers). Improved versions of RCA and IND were released during July 2005 following useful suggestions from partners. Finally, the electricity template (ELC) was delivered in August 2005

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with a maximum of national data and macros to generate the technologies automatically. Another change compared to the initial plan was to expand the duration of each workshop in order to provide more time for the training of the partners in the use of the templates and the VEDA interface. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

Notes: The nature of this work package implied that the bulk of the work had to be done by the developers of the software and database tools, i.e. KANLO, which is the leader of the WP. In this leading role, KANLO was assisted by IMAA - CNR for the logistical tasks, i.e. the exchanges of information between the various partners, the organization of the workshops, etc. Each of the other partners did a common set of activities as follows: :

- reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions for the design of the various tools: RES, templates, VEDA-FE.

- actively attended the training sessions (November 2004 in Firenze, April 2005 in Madrid, September 2005 in Maratea)

- trained themselves to become proficient in the use of the various software (interacting with KANLO when needed), and

- used the tools to start constructing their country model(s) (although this task straddles WP1 and WP2)

Therefore, in what follows, we repeat for each partner the above set of activities, and we add any additional specific activity performed by some partners. CHALMERS - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions

for the design of the various tools: RES, templates, VEDA-FE. - actively attended the training sessions - trained themselves to become proficient in the use of the various software

(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing energy models for Sweden, Norway and

Iceland, filling in the templates prepared by KANLO CIEMAT - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions


(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing energy models for Spain and Portugal,

filling in the templates prepared by KANLO CRES - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions


(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing energy models for Greece, Cyprus and

Malta, filling in the templates prepared by KANLO

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ECN - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions for the design of the various tools: RES, templates, VEDA-FE.

- actively attended the training sessions - trained themselves to become proficient in the use of the various software

(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing energy models for The Netherlands and

Ireland, filling in the templates prepared by KANLO - In addition, actively led and participated in the design of the Industry RES. - Co-authored (with KANLO, KULeuven, IMAA, PSI, USTUTT-, EFDA) the

document “Draft common structure of the national country models” (deliverable D1.4)

ENERO - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions for the design of the various tools: RES and templates.

- actively attended the training session of Maratea, September 2005 - used the tools to start constructing the energy model for Romania, filling in

the templates prepared by KANLO IMAA - CNR - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions


(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing the energy model for Italy, filling in the

templates prepared by KANLO - In addition, contributed significantly to the definition of the design of the

Reference Energy System (RES) with its own suggestions and review of the proposals made by KANLO and other partners

- Co-ordinated, in collaboration with KANLO, the interactions between RS2a partners for the definition of a common list of commodities, reviewing and integrating the various proposals

- Co-authored (with KANLO, ECN, KULeuven, PSI, USTUTT - ESA, EFDA) and issued the document “Draft common structure of the national country models” (deliverable D1.4)

- Collaborated with KANLO for the selection of the main common data sources relative to: energy flows, stock of plants, environmental data, and other additional data for the characterisation of the main macroeconomic sectors.

- Acted as responsible of relationships with the Eurostat Bureau and managed the full access to the Eurostat database given by the Statistical office to RS2a and provided KANLO with pre-elaborated data

- Co-organised with KANLO the training activities on the use of the software and filling in the templates with national data

INFM - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions


(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing the energy model for Slovenia, filling in

the templates prepared by KANLO KANLO - Acted as WP leader

- Designed the bulk of the Reference Energy System (RES), coordinating with

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IMAA – CNR the contribution provided by other partners - Developed the software and database tools (templates, VEDA-FE). - Co-ordinated with IMAA – CNR the interactions between RS2a partners for

the definition of a common list of commodities, reviewing and integrating the various proposals

- Co-authored (with ECN, IMAA – CNR, KULeuven, PSI, USTUTT - ESA, EFDA) the document “Draft common structure of the national country models” (deliverable D1.4)

- Collaborated with IMAA for the selection of the main common data sources relative to: energy flows, stock of plants, environmental data, and other additional data for the characterisation of the main macroeconomic sectors.

- Imported all the Eurostat table provided by IMAA – CNR in the VEDA BE interface

- Organised in collaboration with IMAA-CNR the training activities on the use of the software and filling in the templates with national data

KUL - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions


(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing energy models for Belgium, Luxembourg

and France, filling in the templates prepared by KANLO - In addition, actively participated in the development of the Industry RES and

to the development of the transport sector template - Co-authored (with KANLO, ECN, IMAA, PSI, USTUTT - ESA, EFDA) the

document “Draft common structure of the national country models” (deliverable D1.4)

POLITO - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions for the design of the various tools: RES, templates, VEDA-FE.


(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing model the energy model for The United

Kingdom, filling in the templates prepared by KANLO PSI - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions


(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing the energy model for Switerland, filling in

the templates prepared by KANLO - In addition, co-authored (with KANLO, ECN, KULeuven, IMAA, USTUTT

- ESA, EFDA) the document “Draft common structure of the national country models” (deliverable D1.4)

RISOE - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions for the design of the various tools: RES, templates, VEDA-FE.


(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing the Danish model, filling in the templates

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prepared by KANLO TTU - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions


(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing energy models for Estonia, Lithuania and

Latvia, filling in the templates prepared by KANLO USTUTT- ESA - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions


(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing energy models for Germany, Austria,

Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, filling in the templates prepared by KANLO

- In addition, actively participated in the development of some portions of the RES

- Co-authored (with KANLO, ECN, KULeuven, IMAA –CNR, PSI, EFDA) the document “Draft common structure of the national country models” (deliverable D1.4)

VTT - reviewed proposals made by KANLO, and contributed its own suggestions for the design of the various tools: RES, templates, VEDA-FE.


(interacting with KANLO when needed), and - used the tools to start constructing the Finnish model, filling in the templates

prepared by KANLO - In addition, reviewed the model generator’s code and implemented several

changes to correct errors and to implement some improved features. VTT is also in charge of the major new feature (Stochastic Programming) that will be implemented in the fall of 2005, under a separate budget.

RS 2a: Energy systems modelling and internalisation strategies, including scenarios building WP2 Country specific models implementation

WP LEADER Chalmers



OBJECTIVES Once the main model structure has been defined and the main methodological questions solved, individual national teams will implement the basic country models, testing their consistency in the reference scenario and analysing their response to perturbation in the boundary conditions (“scenario by scenario” analysis).

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The detailed objectives are best described in the following tasks:

Task 2.1 List of technologies Determination of a common list of technologies based on the already existing MARKAL/TIMES models (e.g. EFDA, SAGE- MARKAL, MARKAL Western Europe, TIMES – EE,) including in particular abatement technologies for different pollutants. The list should be agreed upon by all country modellers and integrated in the common basic RES, accordingly to task 1.1. Start: Month 4 – End: Month 8

Task 2.2. Characterisation of technologies Characterisation of the listed technologies and individuation of specific options for the different countries. The resulting database will be made up by the existing databases provided by the RS2a participants, and country specific data and the information made available by the LCA/ExternE. Start: Month 6 – End: Month 15 Task 2.3. Definition of scenario parameters Definition of the context parameters of reference and alternative scenarios, according to the policies identified by the Scientific Committee. In particular, existing boundary conditions will be taken into account, as well as selected strategy parameters will be included to integrate the information from ExternE/LCA. Moreover in policy scenarios it will be analysed the response of the national energy systems to the variation of boundary conditions (e.g., emission limits, market allocation of new technologies and renewable). Start: Month 4 – End: Month 16

Task 2.4. Training in use of the packages and implementation of the basic country models Training in use of the packages (see task 1.3) and implementation of the 25+ MS and NAS EU energy partial equilibrium basic country models. Start: Month 8 – End: Month 10

Task 2.5. Test runs and calibration of MSM models Test runs and calibration of EU-25 Member State and other European countries energy partial equilibrium basic models (MSM) which fully reproduce the existing detailed energy balances in the base year, and takes into account the existing system boundaries (context parameters of the reference scenario). Start: Month 10 – End: Month 16

Task 2.6. Implementation of the MSM specific runs and cases: scenario analysis Implementation of the country specific models runs and cases with partial and /or full costs. Scenario analysis. Start: Month 16 – End: Month 24

STARTING POINT (September 2004): The following existing tools and approaches existed at the starting date of the WP:

• Technology databases of different RS partners.

• Many of the RS partners possessed knowledge on MARKAL, a few already on TIMES and others neither on MARKAL nor TIMES.

• Scenario descriptions used by RS partners in other analysis not related to NEEDS. PROGRESS The first annual activity report of WP2 is concerned in particular with tasks 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4

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and, therefore, the progress achieved is described with reference to these tasks. Task 2.1 A very exhaustive common list of technologies based on already existing MARKAL/TIMES models (e.g. EFDA, SAGE- MARKAL, MARKAL Western Europe, TIMES – EE,) was compiled. The list was circulated a number of times to all RS partners in order to suggest alterations and thereby the list was improved through an iterative process. The compilation was carried by IMAA - CNR with contributions and suggestions by CIEMAT, CHALMERS, CRES, USTUTT - ESA, INFM, PSI, TTU and VTT. A final version of the list of technologies was presented at the end of June (Month 10) and has been formally approved at the RS meeting in Maratea, September 14. Task 2.2. The characterisation of the listed technologies and individuation of specific options for the different countries is ongoing. The list of technologies, task 2.1 is used as the basis for the characterisation. The work is coordinated by ECN with major contributions from CIEMAT. A data template is used for the structuring of the characterisation containing information as capacity, activity, economic lifetime, start year, process output and input, availability, efficiency, total investment cost, fixed and variable O&M costs and emissions. An initial set of data is available based on the contributions of ECN and CIEMAT. Task 2.3 A suggestion for a first scenario analysis was presented by PSI at the RS meeting in Madrid, April 22nd. This included a reference scenario based on a business as usual assumptions and policy cases of interest for EU stakeholders. A number of possible cases were outlined. Formally this task is a part of RS 2a but it is a responsibility of the entire project. Task 2.4 Partners have been trained in the use of software packages and templates and have completed (or are in the process of completing) the country templates. DEVIATIONS As concerns the general status of WP2 there have been a number of minor delays but these will not result in any overall time schedule changes. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION CHALMERS • Acted as WP leader in collaboration with IMAA-CNR.

• Provided suggestions on the list of technologies. • Started the filling in of templates relatively to Sweden, Norway and Iceland.

CIEMAT • Provided suggestions on the list of technologies. • Contributed to technology characterisation, with particular regard to the

Residential sector. • Completed the draft Spanish templates and started the filling in of templates

relatively to Portugal. CRES • Provided suggestions on the list of technologies

• Completed the draft Greek templates and started the filling in of templates relatively to Cyprus and Malta.

ECN • Acted as coordinator of task 2.2 • Carried out the technology characterisation data template. • Almost completed the draft Dutch templates and started the filling in of

templates relatively to Ireland.

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ENERO • Started data selection for the filling in of the Romanian templates. IMAA-CNR • Acted as coordinator of task 2.1

• Supported Chalmers in the WP leadership • Compiled the major part of the list of technologies. • Completed the draft templates for Italy.

INFM • Provided suggestions on the list of technologies. • Started data selection and the filling in of the Slovenian templates.

KUL • Co - authored with PSI the Internal Working Paper “Key Drivers for Energy Trends in EU; Specification of the Baseline and Policy Scenarios”

• Contributed to technology characterisation, with particular regard to the Transport sector.

• Almost completed the draft Belgium templates and started the filling in of templates relatively to France and Luxembourg.

POLITO • Provided suggestions on the list of technologies. • Contributed to technology characterisation. • Started the filling in of the United Kingdom templates.

PSI • Acted as coordinator of task 2.3 • Wrote, as the main author, the Internal Working Paper “Key Drivers for

Energy Trends in EU; Specification of the Baseline and Policy Scenarios” • Provided suggestions on the list of technologies. • Completed the draft templates for Switzerland.

RISOE • Considered templates and data received under WP1 for selection of sectors to be included in the national model.

• Selected national data sources for supplementary model data, primarily based on the national Energy Strategy 2025, published by the Danish Energy Authority, June 2005.

TTU • Provided suggestions on the list of technologies • Started data selection for the filling in of templates relatively to Estonia,

Lithuania and Latvia. USTUTT - ESA • Acted as coordinator of task 2.4

• Provided suggestions on the list of technologies • Contributed to technology characterisation for the Power sector. • Partially completed the draft templates relatively to Germany, Austria,

Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland VTT • Provided suggestions on the list of technologies.

• Partially completed the draft templates for Finland

RS 2a Energy systems modelling and internalisation strategies, including scenarios building WP5: Training, documentation and reporting

WP LEADER IMAA - CNR



OBJECTIVES

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The general objective of WP 5 is to provide training, documentation and reporting on the models features and methodological interfaces (Integration of ExternE, LCA and MARKAL/TIMES) and to draw up the workshops proceedings.

The detailed objectives are best described in the following tasks:

Task 5.1 Training on draft country models: the developers of the draft models and the related software will release the packages to the Consortium and train researchers on their use, doing together the initial steps to improve the models.


Task 5.2. Documentation on methodological interfaces and models features.


Task 5.3. Preparation of National Reports for illustrating the main features of country specific models.


Task 5.4. Documentation on the Pan European model.


Task 5.5. Preparation of the final report.


Task 5.6. Workshops proceedings


STARTING POINT (September 2004): As a starting point, two informal working meetings were held before the beginning of the activities among a restricted group of participants (Stuttgart, 9 July 2004, Garching, 12 September 2004). From these meetings two crucial points emerged:

1. National models need a common RES and database based upon existing models prepared in the past by ETSAP participants. Afterwards, these models should be improved upon an iterative process within participants.

2. It is necessary to agree with the other RS how to manage LCA and externalities for considering the input – output flows among the three methodologies and assuring the consistency across the three different approaches.

In such a framework, documentation and training activities are directed to assure a better transfer of information and a satisfactory implementation of the models at country level as well as EU level. PROGRESS The first annual activity report of WP5 is concerned in particular with tasks 5.1, 5.2 and 5.6, therefore the progress achieved are described with reference to these tasks.

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Task 5.1 Training activities were conducted throughout the entire 12-month period, under the logistical direction of IMAA - CNR and the technical responsibility of KANLO. An informal session took place in September 2005 in Garching (Germany) taking advantage of another meeting where most RS2a modellers were present. The first technical session (Hands on VEDA FE-BE) was held in the RS 2a Kick off meeting (Florence November 2004). The aim of that session was to train the participants to download and install the software (http://www.kanors.com/NEEDSDnld.htm) and to use the preliminary versions of VEDA-FE and BE, experiencing basic functions as well as advanced functions (e.g. how to use drivers and calibration factors, managing the demands, using filters, operating quick changes in basic parameters etc.). A three- day training course was then held at the Madrid meeting (Milestone WS1, Deliverable D1.2) with a focus on the templates. The main objective of that event was to present the draft templates structure based on the common RES and to obtain feedback from partners, in order to come to a final agreement and to allow the subsequent release of the final version of the spreadsheet interfaces. The draft country specific templates were thus installed, and it was shown how to fill in the tables with national data and calibrate the model using the common data sources and other available data. In this framework the problem of compatibility among Eurostat data and national statistics was discussed, focusing on how different data should be managed and harmonised in order to have a reliable and effective representation of national energy systems. After the meeting the training activities were continued by e-mail interactions between KANLO and the partners, using the KanORS website http://www.kanors.com/NEEDSdnld.htm as the official reference for downloading and updating software, templates and the related instructions. In particular, a significant feedback has occurred between KANLO and most of the participants, which led to a continuous improvement of templates, algorithmic and computational tools. Task 5.2. The main objective of this task was to give the general information on the model features and the VEDA FE approach, with emphasis on the integration with LCA and externalities.

Much of the work was done in close collaboration with WP4 of RS IN (Harmonization of models and methodologies, coordinated by KANLO) and the outputs were channeled with those of WP1 of RS2a (Model design and interfaces) of which they constitute an integral part. The reporting activities were carried out mainly by KANLO, that was in charge of developing the NEEDS version of the Templates and of the VEDA interfaces (see WP1 of RS2a). Documentation of the templates and of VEDA were prepared and distributed. An earlier draft of the technical paper “Integration of ExternE, LCA and MARKAL/TIMES, by S. Kypreos, D. VanRegemorter, and R. Loulou, March 1, 2005” was distributed to serve as a basis for discussion and to summarize the most important issues for the development of coherent interfaces. The suggestions of the integration stream were embodied in the NEEDS TIMES modelling structure in a way similar to what has been already implemented in MARKAL/ TIMES family of models, http://www.etsap.org/documentation.asp). The main output was the deliverable D 5.10 “Documentation on methodological interfaces and models features” which describes the templates features and the information flows between templates and MARKAL/TIMES. This deliverable is an integral part of the deliverables D1.1 Spreadsheet interfaces (country models), D1.3 Improved Veda front end shell and D1.4 Draft Common structure of the national models. Task 5.6 Workshops proceedings were carried out and released on due time, under the responsibility of the Stream Leader and are available on the NEEDS website in the section Events of RS2a.

DEVIATIONS

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http://www.kanors.com/NEEDSdnld.htm

As concerns the general status of implementation of WP5 relatively to the 18- month time plan, there were not significant deviations in time scheduling: results, deliverables and milestones were achieved in due time. One point worth noting is that most of the work was done in strict collaboration between KANLO and IMAA - CNR, that cooperate for the organisation of the training activities, the achievement of the results and the release on due time of deliverables. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

CHALMERS • Actively attended the RS2a meetings and training activities • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings

CIEMAT

• Actively attended the RS2a meetings • Organised, in collaboration with IMAA - CNR, the RS2a II plenary

meeting ”Progress on the 18-month time plan” – Madrid 22 April 2005 • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings

CRES • Actively attended the RS2a meetings • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings

ECN • Actively attended the RS2a meetings and training activities • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings

ENERO • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings IMAA - CNR • Acted as WP leader, coordinating exchanges between all partners involved

in RS2a. • Organised and actively attended the RS2a meetings (RS2a kick – off

meeting - Florence 22-23 November 2004; RS2a II plenary meeting ”Progress on the 18-month time plan” – Madrid 22 April 2005)

• Co-organised (with KANLO) and actively attended the training activities (Hands on VEDA FE - BE - Florence 23 November 2004; RS2a workshop “Starting country models: transfer and training”, Madrid 19- 21 April 2005)

• Prepared and submitted the workshops proceedings. • Co-ordinated, prepared and submitted the RS2a First year activity report • Provided inputs related to the participation of RS2a in RS IN

INFM • Actively attended the RS2a meetings and training activities • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings

IPTS – JRC • KANLO • Coordinated the interactions between RS2a and Stream Integration

• Actively attended the RS2a meetings • Co – organised (with IMAA - CNR) and delivered the training activities

(Hands on VEDA FE - BE - Florence 23 November 2004; RS2a workshop “Starting country models: transfer and training” – Madrid 19: 21 April 2005)

• Prepared and submitted the deliverable D5.10 “Documentation on Methodological interfaces”

• Reviewed the drafts of the workshop proceedings • Coordinated together with IMAA - CNR the interactions between RS2a,

Stream Integration, and Stream 1A. KUL • Actively attended the RS2a meetings and training activities

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• Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings • Coordinated with KANLO the interactions between RS2a and Stream

Integration and Stream 1A. POLITO

• Actively attended the RS2a meetings and training activities • Co- organised, with IMAA - CNR, the RS2a kick – off meeting - Florence

22-23 November 2004; • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings

PSI • Actively attended the RS2a meetings and training activities • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings • Provided inputs related to the participation of RS2a in Integration Stream

RISOE • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings • Actively attended the RS2a kick – off meeting and training activities

TTU • Actively attended the RS2a meetings and training activities • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings

USTUTT -ESA • Actively attended the RS2a meetings and training activities • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings

VTT • Actively attended the RS2a meetings and training activities • Reviewed the drafts of workshop proceedings

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2.6.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones RS 2a: Energy systems modelling and internalisation strategies, including scenarios building


LIST OF DELIVERABLES Deliverabl

e N°

Deliverable Title

Nature Dissemination Level

Delivery Due date

Delivery Actual/Fores

een date


D1.1 Spreadsheet interfaces (country models)

P PU 8

12 Inconsistencies in the Eurostat energy balances and other data

D1.2 Milestone 1: Workshop – starting country models: transfer and training

O RE 8

8

D1.3 Improved Veda front –end shell

P PU 12 12

D1.4 Draft common structure of the national models

P RE 12 12

D5.10 Documentation on methodological interfaces and models features

P PU 12 12

List of Milestones RS TITLE RS 2a: Energy systems modelling and internalisation strategies, including scenarios building


LIST OF MILESTONES

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Milestone Milestone 1: Workshop – starting country models: transfer and training (WS1)

Due for Month 8

Achieved in Month 8 (April, 2005)

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2.7 RS2b: Energy technology roadmap and stakeholders perspective

2.7.1 Workpackages Progress RS 2b: Energy technology roadmap and stakeholders perspective WP N°1 Survey of criteria and indicators

WP LEADER: PSI



OBJECTIVES The objective of WP1 is to review criteria and indicator sets for the assessment of energy systems, proposed and/or used within international and selected national projects. Particular attention needed to be paid to criteria and indicators addressing sustainability of energy supply. PROGRESS This Workpackage consisted of two parts: 1. Establishment of the basis for the evaluation of sustainability of energy systems: Definitions of sustainability were reviewed and some basic principles were formulated. Furthermore, requirements on criteria and indicators were established, having in mind the ultimate goal to operationalise sustainability evaluation. This part was carried out mainly by PSI; University of Stuttgart was consulted to assure that the requirements are reasonable also in the context of social indicators. 2. Literature survey: There are many examples of criteria and indicators established by international organizations as well as on the national level. First, the sets that appear to be promising were identified. Second, their suitability for comprehensive, multi-disciplinary and practical comparative assessment of energy systems was examined having in mind the requirements on criteria and indicators established in this Workpackage (see above). PSI carried out the survey. Since as anticipated one of the weak points in the existing sets was an inadequate representation of social criteria and indicators, strong connection was established with WP2. University of Stuttgart, responsible organisation for WP2, provided expertise and impulses for this specific part, based on publications and experiences that do not necessarily come from the energy sector . The comprehensive survey of criteria and indicators relevant for the assessment of sustainability of energy systems used as a starting point the knowledge assembled by PSI in a number of related earlier projects. Representatives of WP contributors from PSI and Stuttgart University met in November 2004 to coordinate the research to be performed within this WP. At the initial kick-off meeting of RS2b in November 2004, the approach to be followed as well as expected output and interactions of WP1 with other WPs were presented. This WP has interactions with several other WPs of RS 2b, namely WP2, WP3, WP8, WP9 and WP10. After the initial phase, an extensive survey of the existing literature on sustainability with particular emphasis on energy systems was planned by PSI, coordinated with WP partners, and carried out. In the course of this work published criteria and indicator sets proposed within international and selected national projects and/or organisations/institutions were reviewed. Particular attention was paid to bringing

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the general survey of indicators performed in WP1 in line with WP 2. Conclusions were drawn with view to the formulation of the overall set of criteria and indicators to be established within WP3 of RS 2b. In accordance with the original plan, strengths and weaknesses of existing criteria and indicator sets were identified and recommendations on improvements were formulated. The deliverable of WP1 (D1.1: Report on experience with criteria and indicators of interest for the evaluation of sustainability of energy systems) was released in August 2005. DEVIATIONS Deliverable D1.1 was originally planned for month 9, i.e. May 31. The report was actually finalised in month 12. The delay was due to the logistic dependency on the output from WP2 and has no impact on the overall planning of activities within RS 2b. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI)

• Acted as WP leader, coordinating exchanges between all partners involved in this WP and the Stream Leader.

• Actively attended the initial kick-off meeting in Villigen PSI November 2004.

• Performed the literature survey described above. • Wrote the successive drafts and the final version of the report

(Deliverable D1.1), integrating inputs from the other partner. Stuttgart University (USTUTT.SOZ)

• Provided expertise on social indicators. • Actively attended the initial kick-off meeting in Villigen PSI November

2004. • Reviewed the draft report (D1.1).

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RS 2b: Energy technology roadmap and stakeholders perspective WP 2: Establishment of social criteria and indicators

WP LEADER: University of Stuttgart (USTUTT.SOZ)



OBJECTIVES The aim of WP2 is to define a set of social criteria and indicators for the assessment of social effects of energy systems. PROGRESS Following the initial November 2004 kick-off meeting, the team from the University of Stuttgart wrote in December 2004 a paper describing their understanding of social indicators and sustainability. On the 3rd of March 2005, the partners of the workpackage, Stuttgart University, GLOBE EUROPE and HELIO International met to discuss their understanding of social indicators for energy systems, how to proceed with the development of a representative set of indicators and to implement the plan. Also the general outline of the Stakeholder Delphi was agreed on. As a result, the criteria and indicators resulting from this process were presented in a second paper, which was also circulated for comments among WP participants. In parallel to the theoretical and conceptual clarification of the work, the literature and internet search for indicators was carried out (see below.). In March 2005, the outcome of this search process has been presented in an intermediate report of WP2. This preliminary report passed several discussion rounds within the work package and with the stream leader, which led to the current version available since August 2005. This report combines deliverables D2.1 (Set of candidate social criteria and indicators from literature review) and D2.2 (Revised set of social indicators that satisfy basic requirements for the evaluation). In the next step, a Stakeholder Delphi will be organised by the University of Stuttgart together with the partners from WP2. This Stakeholder Delphi will take place in January 2006 in Brussels. The Search for Indicators WP2 applied a multi-step-approach. In a first step, the workpackage looked for existing indicators available in publications (in both English and German language) from the last twenty years. The keywords “social indicator”; “sustainability”, environmental indicator” and “energy indicator” were used to organise this search process. As a result of this process 1320 indicators could be found. In a second step, these indicators were examined according to the following criteria:

1. The clarity of the indicators 2. Whether the indicators are simple and logical 3. Whether the indicators can be applied throughout Europe, and 4. Whether they combine social and energy-system related aspects. Only 148 of the 1320 indicators passed these steps of the search process. These indicators were in turn subjected to three central questions: 1. Whether they can be applied to future technologies 2. Whether their focus is on the level of countries and not only on the regional level, and 3. Whether the indicators allow differentiating between energy technologies. Only 28 of the 148 indicators, which are able to measure the social dimension of present and future energy systems, survived this filtering process. These indicators are attributed to concepts derived from the theoretical concept of social compatibility (Renn 1986). The underlying

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criteria are:1: Continuity of energy service over time, 2: Political stability and legitimacy, 3. Social components of risks, and 4. Quality of Life.

An updated version of the indicator set will be the outcome of a Stakeholder-Delphi. This will form the basis for the final selection of social indicators that will be combined with the corresponding sets of environmental and economic indicators being established within WP3 of RS 2b. DEVIATIONS The work programme of WP2 has been modified. The first deliverable (D2.1) was available with one month delay (in March 2005) and the second (D2.2) with three months delay (August 2005). Both were included in the available report (D2.1 & D.2.2). The reason for this delay were the encountered difficulties in the search for relevant indicators, due to the apparent lack of established social indicators meeting the requirements of the NEEDS-project. As a result an intense discussion process and many iterations were needed before acceptable results could be documented in a report. As a consequence, also the development of the questionnaire for the possible Delphi participants and for the selected ones had to be postponed because it has to be based on a given set of indicators. The update of D2.2, based on the Delphi exercise, constitutes deliverable D2.3, which has been shifted from month 12 to month 18. The delays can be accommodated within the overall schedule and will not have negative consequences on the implementation of other WPs as some margins have been built into the original plan. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION University of Stuttgart (USTUTT.SOZ)

• Workpackage Leader • Convenor of the activities of WP2 • Active participation at various meetings within the research stream and

internal to the WP: November 22th 2004 in Villigen, March 4th in Paris, May 17th in Stuttgart, July 27th in Villigen

• Development of a report on the understanding of social indicators and sustainability

• Search for existing indicators in the existing literature • Search for existing indicators in the internet • Development of new indicators • Writing the WP report • Development of a questionnaire as a basis for the Stakeholder Delphi • Planning of the Stakeholder Delphi • Disseminated information concerning choice of social indicators and

Delphi Meeting GLOBE EUROPE

• Active participation in project meetings in Villigen (Nov. 22th 2004) and in Paris (March 4th 2005)

• Participation in the development of the first set of indicators • Suggestions for potential Delphi participants • GLOBE EUROPE is also contributing to the planning of the

Stakeholder-Delphi • Feedback on proposed indicators • Disseminated information concerning choice of social indicators and

Delphi Meeting HELIO International

• Actively attended the meetings: Kick off meeting in Villigen (Nov. 22th 2004), and the internal workpackage-meeting in Paris (March 4th 2005)

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• Organisation of the WP meeting in Paris on March 4th 2005 • Participation in the development of the first set of indicators • Contributions to the development of new indicators • Feedback on proposed indicators • Suggestions for potential Delphi-participants • Support of reports by comments and discussions • Disseminated information concerning choice of social indicators and

Delphi Meeting Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI) (formally not a participant in WP2; direct involvement was necessary in order to assure compatibility with project goals and requirements on the overall set of indicators)

• Acted as Stream Leader, coordinating exchanges between all partners. • Conveyed the Villigen Kick of Meeting November 22/23 (included

initial discussion on social indicators), and Villigen-Meeting June 27th 2005

• Provided extensive written comments on draft reports; discussed an advanced draft in Stuttgart on May17th 2005

• Support for the production of the deliverables of WP2 compatible with the goals to generate energy technology roadmap under stakeholder perspectives

• Provided specific proposals on social indicators for energy systems • Support for the development of the questionnaire and selection of

Delphi participants • Disseminated information concerning the choice of social indicators and

the Delphi Meeting

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RS 2b: Energy technology roadmap and stakeholders perspective WP N°3: Establishment of full set of criteria and indicators

WP LEADER: PSI



OBJECTIVES The goal of this package is to establish the full set of criteria and indicators that will be quantified to the extent possible. The set will include economic, environmental and social indicators. PROGRESS This WP is in initial stage. As this WP will accommodate the results of the literature survey carried out in WP1 as well as the recommended set of social criteria and indicators established in WP2, the WP3 Leader (also Stream Leader) reviewed the outputs of these two WPs with view to the requirements on the full set of indicators to be used in the technology-specific sustainability assessment. Furthermore, the indicator issues were discussed with IIASA (WP9 Leader) having in mind possible later implementation in candidate MCDA tools. Finally, initial discussions were conducted internally at PSI, primarily with PSI’s participants in RS1a, concerning candidate LCA-based indicators. The preliminary conclusion is that WP1 and WP2 provide a necessary and promising basis for developing a comprehensive set of criteria and indicators that are technology-specific and can be oerationalised for the purpose of RS 2b. Adaptations and extensions as well as harmonisation with RS1a and RS1b will, however, be necessary. A full set will be proposed in month 18 (February 2006). DEVIATIONS None PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION PSI • Contributed directly and cooperated with WP1 and WP2 Leaders

• Performed initial review of outputs of WP1 and WP2 with view to their suitability to form the primary input for establishing the relevant full set of criteria and indicators

• Discussed the implications of some indicator features with WP9 Leader IIASA

• As WP9 Leader provided expertise on the features of MCDA tools needed for accommodating criteria and indicators of various types and with different structures

• Discussed the implications of potential options Other WP Partners: CESI, EDF, GLOBE Europe, HELIO International, IIASA, ISIS, USTUTT.SOZ

These partners will start contributing actively from month 13. Their main task will be to provide feedback on the full set to be proposed by the WP Leader. If feasible, the process should lead to establishing consensus between stream participants.

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RS 2b. Energy technology roadmap and stakeholders perspective WP N° 9: MCDA approach and tool selection

WP LEADER: IIASA



OBJECTIVES The objective of this WP is to select MCDA approach and software best suited for the purpose of NEEDS. Arrangements of the interactions with stakeholders need to be taken into account when making the choice. PROGRESS Activities of WP9 have been split into two stages: the first (M3-12) reported here provided a basis for the second (M13-24). The work in M3-12 has been done by a close cooperation of IIASA and PSI, and focused on: - analysing the legacy of both partners pertinent to the objectives of RS2b, especially for WP9 and WP10: • sharing IIASA's experience in modeling methods and tools, with focus on MC (MultiCriteria)

model-based decision analysis and support • sharing PSI experience in modeling energy systems, with focus on applications of MCDA

methods • exploring the recent developments in the MC field pertinent to the work of RS-2b

- performing an experiment with analysis of the Markal model using the MCMA tool (modular tool developed by IIASA for MultiCriteria Model Analysis); the results of this experiment have shown the capabilities of the MCMA tool for analysis of the Markal model. - two meetings were held (one at PSI, second at IIASA) for more detailed discussions of the requirement analysis, and for an initial screening of MC methods that should be considered in more details in the second stage of WP9. The above summarized activities provide a solid basis for the two deliverables (D9.1 and D9.2) that will document (in M18 and M24, respectively) the results of WP9. DEVIATIONS The discussions during the kick-off meeting (Nov. 21, 2004, at PSI) made it clear that a proper requirement analysis for the MCDA methods and tools needs much more interaction with other WPs, as well as more input than planned during the writing of the proposal. Therefore it was agreed to: 1. Move the deadline of the corresponding deliverable D9.1 by 6 months to M18 2. Start the activities immediately, i.e. in M3 (instead of as originally planned in M7); however, the resources were not changed, i.e. activities have taken longer but at a lower intensity level. These two changes were necessary to achieve the desired results of WP9, and to increase the interaction with other activities of RS2b.

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PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION IIASA Knowledge of, and experience with, a wide selection of MC methods and tools,

MCMA (modular tool for MC model analysis), help in experimenting with application of MCMA to the Markal model, a framework of the Requirement Analysis.

PSI Knowledge of, and experience with, application of MC methods to analysis of energy problems, experience with the Markal model, experiments with applying the MCMA tool to the Markal model, substantive knowledge necessary for the Requirement Analysis.

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RS 2b: Energy technology roadmap and stakeholders perspective WP N°11: Acceptability of monetary valuation methods and their poternial role in energy policy making process

WP LEADER: ARMINES

Start Month 1

End Month 18

OBJECTIVES WP 11 deals with the acceptability of monetary valuation methods and their potential role in energy policy making processes. Its ultimate goal is to identify the factors promoting or hindering the use of monetary valuation techniques and results in the actual energy-policy making processes at the Member State level. It includes two core components: (i) a set of case studies analysing how monetary valuation and other methods are embodied in energy policy making processes in three countries : France, UK and the USA. (ii) a modeling exercise using the political economy tools to understand how such methods can interact with informational lobbying in policy making games. The milestone consists in identifying the conditions favouring use of external costs for energy policy making. PROGRESS We describe the progress made for the case studies and the theoretical analysis separately. Case studies on the use of monetary valuation studies in policy making: Following the initial November 2004 kick-off meeting, the construction of a common case study format was elaborated. This work led to a guide to be used for the interviews ("Diffusion of monetary valuation methods in actual energy and environmental policy making processes - Country case studies (France, UK, USA) - Interview Guide" (March 2005). The interview guide was tested during interviews with two French officials from ADEME and the Ministry of the Environment in March. After exploring the different possibilities, we selected the three countries in which the case studies will be carried out. The first one, France, is an example of a country where monetary valuation studies and cost benefit analyses are still limited. By contrast, we selected two pioneering countries: the UK and the USA. In April, we started the French case studies by making 15 interviews of different stakeholders and officials (the Ministry of the Environment, the ADEME, the Ministry of Industry, the energy regulator CRE, a NGO called Climate Action Network, the business association "Entreprises pour l'Environnement" and several consultants and scholars). June was dedicated to the preparation of two missions in the US and in the UK. The mission was made in the US mid June where we met officials of the Environmental Protection Agency and of the Department of Energy, with consultants and members of think tank organisations; e.g. Resources for the Future. This first mission also highlighted the necessity to complete the

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interviews. This was done with a second mission at the end of August. Interviews were made in UK at the end of July with officials from DEFRA, the EPA, the Department of Trade and Energy, several consultancy companies (EFTEC, ERM Resources) and NGO's) We prepared a draft interim report gathering the first results for France and UK in July and August. This report will be discussed at the Paris meeting of the Research Stream 2B on September 12 – 13. The conclusions of this Interim Report are the following:

• In France, the explicit use of the results of monetary valuation studies is still limited in environment-energy policies. The contrast is striking with other policy fields (transport policy, water policy). The only exception is the inclusion of monetary values in the last reference report "Coûts de reference de la production électrique" published every 3-5 years. This report is a key one in that it serves as a reference for regulating the energy markets and to plan the investments. The domestic production of studies is very limited and decision makers essentially rely on benefit transfers from foreign studies. Institutionally, an office specialised in cost benefit analysis – D4E – was created in 2000 in the Ministry for the Environment. This limited diffusion in energy-environment policies is mainly due to the adversarial nature of the policy making process in this area.

• In UK, the market for monetary valuation is much more mature. Since 1998, there exists an obligation of Regulatory Impact Assessment. Different guidelines strongly recommend the inclusion of monetary values to take into account environmental damages. The responsibility for carrying out economic analysis of environment-energy studies is scattered in many offices at DEFRA, the Ministry for the Environment, the EPA and in other ministries. A major factor limiting the use of monetary valuation in the field of energy is the concept of "liberalisation" which is applied to energy markets in UK. By limiting drastically the role of the regulator in setting energy prices and in investment planning, it hinders the possibility to take into account external costs in price and investment decisions.

Theoretical analysis/modelling: On this aspect, we cooperate with Prof Jean Marc Bourgeon of the University of Paris X. In May and June, 2005 we reviewed the economic literature. Obviously, there is no specific literature on the question of the work package. But two streams of literature are of direct interest to our project: the literature on informational lobbying (Grossman & Helpman; 2001) and the economic analysis of expertise (Tirole & Dewatripont, 1999 for instance). The basic building blocks of the model are now selected. The general idea is to investigate how the use of evaluation methods alters the traditional lobbying model of the political economy literature. We started and elaborated several simple models providing first insights in August. We prepared an interim theoretical report which will be discussed at the Paris September 12 – 13 meeting of the Research Stream 2B. DEVIATIONS There was no deviation from the plan, either in contents or in schedule. The only point worth noting is that we decided to carry out a case study in a non-EU Member State: the USA. The reason is that there exists in this country a long tradition of economic evaluation of environmental policies through the mandatory procedure of "Regulatory Impacts Assessment" set

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up by the Reagan Administration. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION ARMINES • Acted as WP leader

• Authored the interview guide • Made interviews in France, UK and the US • Wrote a case study interim report and a theoretical report • Actively attended the Villigen November meeting, and a June meeting

in Bremen with consulting companies specialised in economic analysis. • Prepared the second meeting of the Research Stream 2B to be held in

Paris.

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RS 2b: Energy technology roadmap and stakeholders perspective WP N°12: Survey organisation and management

WP LEADER: ISIS



OBJECTIVES The general objectives of this WP concern the organisation and coordination of the surveys addressed to stakeholders. In particular the objectives for the first 18 months of work envisaged:

• To set procedures and basis for the surveys and identify the candidate groups of stakeholders to be engaged.

• To carry out a first limited scope survey with WP3 to obtain feedback on proposed sets of criteria and indicators.

PROGRESS With respect the highlighted specific objectives the first one has been fully achieved: the surveys have been identified, described and planned and the stakeholders categories well identified. The work carried out within this WP has been described in deliverable D12.1 (Procedures and Plans for Carrying out Surveys). The second specific objective was not planned to be carried out within the first 12 months. Actually there are some doubts if it is worth carrying out this pre-survey, taking into account the limited resources allocated to this WP. A possibility will be to address this preliminary survey to the NEEDS participants in order to receive suggestions and remarks from them. DEVIATIONS

The deliverable has been produced in month 12 instead of in month 6 due to the time required to better focus and identify the surveys to be carried out within the Stream 2b and evaluate the specific interests of other involved streams (i.e. 1b). In any case this delay has no impact on the subsequent activities of WP12. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION

ISIS The work described in the section above has been mainly carried out by ISIS. Objective achieved: To set procedures and basis for the surveys and identify the candidate stakeholders to be engaged Deliverable prepared and delivered: D 12.1 One working meeting on this WP was held in Rome with Stream Leader Stefan Hirschberg of PSI on March the 1st 2005

PSI

Close collaboration with ISIS for the preparation of the deliverable 12.1 and deliverable review.

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Meeting in Rome on March 1st 2005. EDF, GLOBE, HELIO, USTUTT.SOZ

These partners will start contributing actively from month 13. Their main task will be to set up the stakeholders database and to follow closely the survey development.

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2.7.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones RS TITLE RS 2b: Energy technology roadmap and stakeholders perspective



ble N°

Deliverable Title

Nature

Dissemination Level

Delivery

Due date

Delivery Actual/Fo

reseen date


D 1.1

Report on experience with criteria and indicators of interest for the evaluation of sustainability of energy systems

R PU 9 12 Logistic dependency on output from WP2(D 2.2)

D 2.1

Set of candidate social criteria and indicators from literature review

R (comb. Report with D 2.2)

PU 6 7 Large scope of literature and internet reviews

D 2.2 Revised set of social indicators that satisfy basic requirements for the evaluation

R (comb. Report with D 2.1)

PU 9 12 Much more extensive need of original work due to lack of relevant established sets of technology-specific criteria and indicator sets suitable for use in RS 2b

D 2.3 List of consensually approved social indicators resulting from a Delphi exercise

R PU 12 18 Consequence of the shift in delivery of D 2.2 and need of careful designing of Delphi procedure (question-naire and selection of participants)

D 9.1 Report on the requirement analysis (basis for MCDA approach and tool selection)

R PU 12 18 Proper requirement analysis for the MCDA methods and tools needs much more interactions with

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other WPs, as well as more input than planned during the writing of the proposal

D 12.1

Procedures and plans for carrying out surveys

R PU 6 12 More time required to set up and organise data and information

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RS TITLE RS 2b: Energy technology roadmap and stakeholders perspective


LIST OF MILESTONES Milestone Identification of strengths and weaknesses of existing criteria and indicators

Due for 9

Achieved in /Expected for 12

Recommendations on social criteria and indicators to be used in NEEDS

9 12

2.8 RS 3a: Transferability and Generalisation The activities of this Stream will start after month 18, therefore there is nothing to report for the first 12 months.

2.9 RS 3b: Dissemination and Communication

2.9.1 Workpackages Progress RS 3b: Dissemination and communication WP N° 1: NEEDS Forum 1

WP LEADER: GLOBE EUROPE



OBJECTIVES NEEDS Forum 1 - Parliamentary Workshop in Brussels “Accepting the real price of sustainable energy “ is the first Forum in a series of six Forum events that shall discuss the project results in a wider context of energy policy definition and evaluation. This parliamentary workshop is planned to trigger the debate in the “Dissemination Stream“ of the NEEDS project. As this debate is a political one a parliamentary workshop will offer the appropriate platform for the interaction between legislators and the “users of legislation”. PROGRESS - Forum event carried out 23 May 2005 - Forum 1 Proceedings ready on CD-ROM (under review) - Internet Proceedings will be integrated to the NEEDS website as soon as review terminated DEVIATIONS

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In difference to the original planning of a parliamentary workshop in either Stockholm or UK, NEEDS Forum 1 was held in the national Belgium Parliament due to election schedules in these countries. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION Globe Europe Organisational preparation of the Forum event including invitations;

preparation of the Forum contents;

FHG-ISI Input to the preparation of the Forum contents

PSI, USTTUT Presentations RS 3b: Dissemination and communication WP N° 2: NEEDS Forum 2

WP LEADER: IJS, UA



OBJECTIVES NEEDS Forum 2 - Central vs. Decentral Production of Useful Energy: The Role of Externalities is the second Forum in a series of six Forum events that shall discuss the project results in a wider context of energy policy definition and evaluation. The Forum on Central vs. Decentral Production of Useful Energy will assemble authors and other participants to present, discuss and provide conclusions on the state of research of externalities by which central and decentral production plants may differ. PROGRESS - Preparations for the Forum event have started DEVIATIONS The Forum event was originally planned for 10/11 November but is now postponed, also after discussions with the Commission, to June 2006 in order to better integrate results forthcoming from the different research streams. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION IJS,UA Organisational preparation of the Forum event including invitations;

preparation of the Forum contents;

FHG-ISI Input to the preparation of the Forum contents

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RS 3b: Dissemination and communication WP N° 7: Internal project communication structures and dissemination of results from project streams

WP LEADER: FHG-ISI


End Month (actual) continuous

OBJECTIVES The objective is to set up communication structures within the project, that allow an effective communication of around hundred persons. The workpackage will also ensure continuous dissemination of results from the different project streams. PROGRESS - Internal communication structures have been set up with an internal website - A first version of the public website is available at www.needs-project.org and will now

gradually be improved - A project flyer was developed with information on the NEEDS project. DEVIATIONS The responsibility for the preparation of the internal communication website and the according budget was shifted from FHG-ISI to ISIS due to their stronger involvement with all partners as the IP Coordinator. The preparation of the second newsletter and of a contact database was postponed to better integrate the results from the different research streams. PARTNERS CONTRIBUTION FHG-ISI Preparation of the contents for the public website; preparation of a project flyer

ISIS Preparation of the internal communication website; preparation of a project

flyer

2.9.2 List of Deliverables and Milestones RS TITLE Dissemination and communication

RS LEADER FHG-ISI


ble N°

Deliverable Title

Nature

Dissemination Level

Delivery

Due date

Delivery Actual/Fore

seen date


D1.1

NEEDS Forum 1 O PU M9 M12 Delivered

D1.2

NEEDS Procee-dings Forum 1

R PU M12 M13 Delivered

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D1.3 Internet Procee-dings Forum 1

R PU M12 M14 Proceedings under review

D2.4 NEEDS Forum 2 O PU M15 M22 Better integra-tion of stream results

D2.5 NEEDS Procee-dings Forum 1

R PU M18 M25 Better integra-tion of stream results

D2.6 Internet Procee-dings Forum 1

R PU M18 M25 Better integra-tion of stream results

D7.7 Project website with public and private (protected) access

O CO/PU M6 Delivered

D7.8 Mailing lists O CO M6 M15 Better integra-tion of stream results

D.7.9 2 Newsletters R PU M6,M11,

M6, M19 Better integra-tion of stream results


for NEEDS Forum 1 - Parliamentary Workshop in London (or Brussels or Strasbourg) "Accepting the real price of sustainable energy"

Month 9 Month 9

NEEDS Forum 2 - Central vs. Decentral Production of Useful Energy: The Role of Externalities

Month 18 Month 25

Internal project communication structures and dissemination of results from project streams

Month 5-18 (for first period)

see deliverables

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3 SECTION 3 – Consortium management

3.1 Consortium management tasks and their achievement The NEEDS management tasks include: 1) administrative and financial coordination and 2) scientific coordination. Both activities have been carried out successfully according to the original description of work. As for item1), the IPC has collected the appropriate administrative and financial information from all contractors, which is reflected in the present Progress Report and in the Management Report. As for item.2), the original sharing of tasks and responsibilities between the IPC and the Stream Leaders (SLs) has been maintained. The multi-layer management structure implemented reflected the dual need to:

ensure that each research stream can smoothly proceed along its own workplan; guarantee that the integration process between streams is effectively and efficiently

implemented. The diagram below schematically illustrates this multi-layer approach:

The responsibilities assigned to each level and the instruments to implement this management structure are illustrated below:

IPC: According to the responsibilities mentioned in the original description of work, the Integrated Project Coordinator (IPC) carried out the following activities in order to ensure a correct implementation of the IP workplan in conformity with the terms and deadlines agreed with the EC:

E C

I P C

Inte

grat

ion

Stre

am

Stre

amLe

ader

s

P M C

W P s L e a d e r s ; T a s k s L e a d e r sP a r t n e r sSM

C

W P s L e a d e r s ; T a s k s L e a d e r sP a r t n e r sS

MC


C


C


MC


C


MC


C

R S 1 aR S 1 a

R S 1 bR S 1 b

R S 1 cR S 1 c

R S 1 dR S 1 d

R S 2 aR S 2 a

R S 2 bR S 2 b

R S 3 aR S 3 a

R S 3 bR S 3 b

120

Established a project secretariat (PS), with dedicated resources (both logistic and professional) Established and regularly updated a database of contacts, which was posted on the reserved area

of the IP web-site Established dedicated sections of the reserved area of the IP web-site (one general and one for

each Research Stream) to store all material produced by the IP (working documents and internal reports, workshop presentations and proceedings, deliverables, progress and management reports, etc.)

Ensured a timely and effective communication within the Consortium at different levels as well as between the Consortium and the Commission and/or external bodies and individuals involved at the various stages of the Workplan

Organised 2 coordination meetings and supervised and/or participated to all meetings organised at Research Stream level

Established an IP accounting system to administrate the financial resources of the IP, in conformity with the rules and procedures set out by the Commission

Stream Leaders: In carrying out the management activities described above, the IPC was well supported by the Stream Leaders. In particular they ensured:

Technical and scientific coordination of each Stream so that the overall IP workplan was timely and effectively implemented

Active participation to the activities of the Project Management Committee (PMC) and the Integration Stream

Provision of basic support to the IPC for what concerns the administrative and financial matters specifically related to each stream.

Workpackage Leaders (WPL) and Task Leaders (TL) Much in the same way as for “traditional” RTD projects such as in previous FPs, the responsibilities within each Research Stream have been distributed among WPL and TL, and enforced through the straightforward, multi layer management scheme illustrated above. Project Management Committee (PMC) The SSC (Scientific Steering Committee) as described in the original DoW and the PMC (Project Management Committee) regulated by the Consortium Agreement, have been merged as the two bodies are composed by the same members and would meet at the same time. The Project Management Committee (also referred to as “PMC”) is the main governing body of the IP. It consists of the IPC and all the Stream Leaders. The Project Management Committee monitored the overall direction of the IP and took the major decisions with regard to the Project both from an administrative and scientific perspective. The PMC met 2 times in the first 12 Months of the project lifetime: o Kick-Off meeting: 19 October 2004, Brussels o 2nd meeting: 23 May 2005, Brussels The minutes of all meetings are available on the NEEDS project website (reserved area).

121

122

Consortium Agreement The NEEDS partners have agreed to subscribe to a Consortium Agreement regulating specific rights, obligations and operational aspects that are not explicitly defined in the EC contract.

The Consortium Agreement is annexed to the present document.

3.2 Contractors Only one major change in contractors’ responsibilities and/or contributions occurred over the first 12 months of the project: RS 2a PSI re-allocated the amount of 22.5 k€ to IER Stuttgart as IER will undertake full responsibility concerning model development and all related obligations in the NEEDS project for both Poland and Slovakia. The country related activities of PSI will concentrate only to Switzerland

3.3 Project timetable and status The figures in the following pages show the planned and actual Gantt diagrams per each research stream. The upper bar (blue or dark grey in the BW printouts) refer to the actual time allocated to each wp2 while the shadowed bars the planned one. The 100% figure at the right end of the bars indicate that the corresponding WP has been completed. Overall there are little or no variation to the planned scheduling with the exception of the RS 2b, as explained in the corresponding sections of this document.

2 RSs 1d and 3a are not included because thy start after the first year of activity (see the 13-30 months DoW)

Gant Diagram RS Integration

Gant Diagram RS 1a

123

Gant Diagram RS 1b

Gant Diagram RS 1c

Gant Diagram RS 2a

124

Gant Diagram RS 2b

Gant Diagram RS 3b

125

3.4 Coordination activities

3.4.1 Communication between partners Considering the importance of ensuring a smooth and efficient communication flow between the 66 partners involved and an optimal use of the available resources, it was decided that the Communication between the IPC, Stream Leaders, Work Package Leaders and Contractors would be mainly managed through a Reserved Area of the NEEDS website. The set up work started from the very beginning of the project and as the website area was operational it became the main tool of communication. The reserved area of the NEEDS website comprises several sections, some common to all partners and some specific to each Research Stream. The internal website is only accessible via a password. Each partner is provided with a personal password and user ID. Once entered the website, all partners are able to visualise all documents displayed and have the possibility to administer (upload, modify, delete) and download only the documents of the Stream section they are part of.

In the homepage, a calendar serves as key reference for all meetings and events scheduled in order to provide a clear overview of all past and future NEEDS activities and avoid overlapping. The information is uploaded via a special software which automatically displays the events in different colours according to the Stream of reference. By clicking on the cell of the calendar referring to the activity or event of interest, all information related to that event is automatically displayed (date, place, related documents etc..).

In the homepage, a general database is also provided with the contact details of all partners involved. The database is organised in alphabetical order per Institution and single contact. The full list of contacts is provided on the left column. By clicking on the name of the partner of interest, his/her full contact details are displayed on the right side. The general database is administered by the IPC and constantly updated in case of changes of contacts.

126

From the contact list it is also possible to visualise the contact details of the main responsibles per Stream and per Work-package within each Stream. This provides to all partners clear information on “who is responsible for what”. This tool works like an excel file where each sheet corresponds to a Stream. At the level of Research Stream dedicated sections of the reserved area of the website are provided in order to allow each RS to organise their work and to share information within the Stream. Each RS Section is organised in four main areas. o Deliverables providing draft and final versions of each deliverable due to the Commission o Events providing information for

each meeting organised in the framework of the Stream: type of meeting, date, place and all related documents (agenda, minutes, proceedings, etc..)

o Shared Documents to store documents of common interest;

o Contact details providing contact information of all the partners involved in the Stream

o Mailing a special tool offering the possibility to send an email directly from the website to all the partners of the Stream.

While the Stream Leaders are the main responsible for their Stream of competence, the IPC is responsible for the overall administration and ensures that all partners, and the Stream Leaders in particular, regularly feed the website with information up to date.

3.4.2 Project meetings The following table presents the meetings, which were organised in the first 12 months at different levels.

RS title date place PMC KO 19 October 2004 Brussels PMC 2nd meeting 23 May 2005 Brussels In wp 2 18 November 2004 Stuttgart In KO 14 December 2004 Rome In 2nd meeting 7 March 2005 Paris 1a wp2 17 February 2005 Lund 1a KO 29 November 2004 Stuttgart 1a 2nd meeting 9-10 May 2005 Roskilde 1b wp6 25 October 2004 Prague

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1b wp1 14 February 2005 Stuttgart 1b wp3 10-11 March 2005 Edinburgh 1b wp1 20-21 April 2005 Paris 1b 2nd meeting 30-31 May 2005 Paris 1b KO 8-9 November 2004 Stuttgart 1c KO 15 November 2004 Sophia Antipolis 1c 2nd meeting 21 March 2005 Sophia Antipolis 2a 2nd meeting 12-14 September Maratea 2a Workshop 19-22 April 2005 Madrid 2a KO 22-23 November 2004 Florence 2b 2nd meeting 12-13 September 2005 Paris 2b KO 22-23 November 2004 Villigen

3.4.3 Possible co-operation with other projects/programmes etc. Cooperation with other EU projects has been established or is planned in future periods. In particular:

• MAXIMA: NEEDS presentation at the Conference organised on 9 December 2005. • METHODEX: NEEDS presentations at Methodex events and invitation of Methodex

partners at NEEDS forums. • WETO-H2: exchanges on political scenarios. • CASES: Possibility of merging NEEDS and CASES final events in November 2008.

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ANNEX 1– Plan for using and disseminating the knowledge Planned/actual

dates Type Type of

audience Countries addressed

Size of audience

Partner responsible/Involved

May 2005 NEEDS Website www.needs-project.org

Utilities, NGOs, Industries, Researchers, Decision Makers

EU 25 (+ Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Switzerland, Norway)

Fgh/ISI - ISIS

May 2005 NEEDS Leaflet Utilities, NGOs, Industries, Researchers, Decision Makers


2000 copies

Fgh/ISI - ISIS

December 2005-Spring 2008

5 Newsletters Utilities, NGOs, Industries, Researchers, Decision Makers


2.000 copies

Fgh/ISI

24 May 2005 NEEDS Forum 1



50-70 persons

GLOBE Europe

3-4 March 2005

International Energy Agency Ad Hoc Group on Science and Energy Technologies (AHGSET)

Paris Presentetation by Andrea Ricci, ISIS

June 2006 NEEDS Forum 2 Ljubliana, “Distributed vs. Central Energy Supply [DvCES]: The Role of Externalities”



50-70 persons

Institute Jozef Stefan JSI - UA

11-12-13 July 2005

Energy Policy and Sustainable Development in

Tunisia & Mediterranean countries

Presentetation by Andrea Ricci, ISIS

129

http://www.needs-project.org/


the Mediterranean: Challenges and New Interdependencies

Late autumn 2006

NEEDS Forum 3 Zürich "Ancillary and External Effects of Innovative Energy Conversion Technologies and their Implications for Policy Making”



50-70 persons

ETHZ - CNRS/CIRED

Late spring 2007

NEEDS Forum 4 Tunis "Externalities and Mediterranean Countries"



50-70 persons

OME

Late autumn 2007

NEEDS Forum 5 Poland, "Energy supply security – present and future issues"



50-70 persons

UMM - CEEETA

Late spring 2008

NEEDS Forum 6 Brussels (?), “Final Dissemination Conference”



100 - 150 persons

FhG/ISI - LEI

NEEDS Forum 1 "Accepting the Real Price for Sustainable Energy" The first NEEDS Forum "Accepting the Real Price for Sustainable Energy" took place on 24 May 2005 in the Belgian Parliament. The Forum wanted to trigger a political debate offering an appropriate platform for the interaction between researchers investigating externalities and methodologies to establish them, legislators, who have to make externalities operational, and the "users of legislation" who are subject to its consequences. Proceedings are available on the NEEDS website www.needs-project.org NEEDS Forum 2 - Central vs. Decentral Production of Useful Energy The Forum on Central vs. Decentral Production of Useful Energy will assemble authors and other participants to present, discuss and provide conclusions on the state of research of externalities by which central and decentral production plants may differ.

130


The Forum on Central vs. Decentral Production of Useful Energy will assemble authors and other participants to present, discuss and provide conclusions on the state of research of externalities by which central and decentral production plants may differ. The European added value of these scientific exchange and dissemination activities is obvious both for further scientific work, as areas of need and opportunity will be identified. On the other hand, convergence of research-based opinions will provide firm basis for practical approaches for a better balance between central and decentral production of useful energy. Well researched good or poor practice examples will be also valuable contributions. Both electricity, heat and polygeneration situations will be considered. The workshop is planned to be held in Ljubljana (Slovenia). NEEDS Forum 3 - Comprehensive Integration of Externalities of Innovative Energy Technologies in the Policy Making” The objective of this Forum is to study the relevance of and interplay between all the external effects in the substitution of innovative for conventional energy conversion technologies, and the implications for energy policy design and strategies. It looks primarily at environmental costs and ancillary impacts of various energy technologies along their full live cycle. It copes with the design of policies for orienting innovation diffusion. It focuses in fine on the comparison of environmental and ancillary effects between decentralised and centralized energy systems. Differences between the situation and the methodologies applied in Western and in Central & Eastern European countries will be explicitly addressed. NEEDS Forum 4 – “The role of externalities and Kyoto mechanisms to achieve a sustainable development energy scenario in the Mediterranean Partner countries” In addition to improving the methodology and the quantitative assessment of externalities, one of the main objectives of the NEEDS project is to extend the geographical coverage from the 2003 EU also to a) the newly associated countries (NAC) i.e. accession countries and b) the Mediterranean Partner countries (MPC) i.e. the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (from Morocco to Turkey). The particularity of most MPC is their low income per capita, their high demographic growth rates, and the fact that they are developing countries. Some of them are large hydrocarbon producing and exporting countries (Algeria, Egypt, Syria; Libya is also a major oil exporter, but is not yet included in the official list of MPC), others do not have any (or only limited) domestic energy resources, but all of them have a very strong need and potential for socio-economic development. In a business as usual scenario, it is forecast that primary energy demand in these countries will almost triple during the next 25 years, increasing from 220 Mtoe in 2000 to 570 Mtoe in 2025 (equivalent to an average annual increase of more than 3.8%). The electricity demand is expected to grow even more dramatically: from 330 TWh in 2000 to 1100 TWh in 2020 (equivalent to more than 4.9 %/yr) , most of which will be satisfied with conventional fossil fuel burning power plants. The social and environmental cost of such a supply oriented strategy will be very high for the people living in these countries. A better understanding of the external social and environmental costs of such a business as usual development strategy and in particular a higher awareness by the decision makers as well as by the general public will help to shape a more efficient and sustainable development policy. The aim of this workshop (Forum 4) is to increase the awareness of these issues at the level of policy makers and decision makers in government and industry. This increased awareness of the issues and knowledge of the available techniques and mechanisms, should on the medium and long

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term contribute to facilitate the shaping by these countries of a more efficient and sustainable development energy policy. The place for NEEDS Forum 4 is planned to be Cairo (Egypt) NEEDS Forum 5 - Energy Supply Security – Present and Future Issues Forum 5 will focus on the issue of supply security and the particular issue of supply security externalities and form indications for the future development of energy development strategies in the European Union. The discussion will occur in the light of the strategy outlined in the European Commission Green Paper on Energy Security. Within the energy system the security of energy supply is one of the most important issues shaping energy policy of countries and regions. Low cost and non-disruptive supplies are guarantees of long-term economy growth. The energy security problem has many dimensions and no universal solution. European Union is highly dependent on foreign energy supplies. Unstable oil prices could undermine economy growth. Assuming continuation of the present trends in next 30 years, 70% of energy will be imported. The place for NEEDS Forum 5 is proposed to be Krakow (Poland). NEEDS Forum 6 - Final Dissemination Conference This last event is scheduled towards the end of the project, approximately for the middle of the 4th year. It is therefore too early to give a precise definition of the contents. This will occur after the second 18 months period plan. However, this conference will have a double purpose: to focus on a common theme which could be tentatively defined as "Impacts of Climate Protection Policies - Strategies for the Period after Kyoto", and at the same time serve the purpose to present major results from the different streams of the project to the public. The place for NEEDS Forum 6 is proposed to be Brussels (Belgium).

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ANNEX 2– Complete list of Deliverables

RS WP Deliverable No Deliverable title Delivery

date Nature Dissemination level

STATE of ART

1.a 1 D1.1

Specification and implementation of

methodological developments

12 R RE SUBMITTED 12

1.a 7 D7.1

Report on technical specification of reference technologies (advanced

fossil fuels)


1.a 8 D8.1

Report on technical specification of reference technologies (hydrogen

technologies)


1.a 9 D9.1 Report on technical

specification of reference technologies (fuel cells)


1.a 10 D10.1

Report on technical specification of reference technologies (off-shore

wind)



specification of reference technologies (photovoltaic)


1.a 12 D12.1

Report on technical specification of reference

technologies (solar thermal power plant)



specification of reference technologies (biomass)


1.a 14 D14.1

Report on technical specification of reference technologies (advanced

nuclear)


1.b 4 D4.1

Intermediate paper concerning the selection of

investigated habitat categories, technologies,

countries

6-8 R PU SUBMITTED 10

1.b 3 D3.1 A review of literature 12 R PU SUBMITTED 12

1.b 3 D3.4 A selection of important indoor resources 12 R PU SUBMITTED

13

1.b 6 D6.1 Tested questionnaire and software 12 R PP SUBMITTED

12

1.c 3 D3.1 Report describing the case

studies in terms of technologies and locations

6 R CO integrated in

D3.2

133

1.c 4 D4.1 Report on present transport schemes for hydrogen and

other energy vectors 6 R CO SUBMITTED

6

1.c 3 D3.2 Report on burdens of electricity transmission 9 R CO expected

14

1.c 1 D1.1 Report on present and future supply sources to satisfy EU

oil imports 12 R CO Expected

16

1.c 2 D2.1 Report on present and future supply sources to satisfy EU

natural gas imports 12 R CO Expected

16

1.c 4 D4.2

Report on future penetration of hydrogen (with hints on other energy vectors) as an

energy carrier

12 R CO SUBMITTED 12

2.a 1 D1.1 Spreadsheet interfaces (country models) 8 P PU SUBMITTED

12

2.a 1 D1.2 Milestone 1: Workshop – starting country models:

transfer and training 8 O RE SUBMITTED

8

2.a 1 D1.3 Improved Veda front –end shell 12 P PU SUBMITTED

12

2.a 1 D1.4 Draft common structure of the national models 12 P RE SUBMITTED

12

2.a 5 D5.10 Documentation on

methodological interfaces and models features

12 R PU SUBMITTED 12

2.b 2 D2.1 Set of candidate social

criteria and indicators from literature review

6 R PP integrated in

D2.2

2.b 12 D12.1 Procedures and plan for carrying out surveys 6 R PP SUBMITTED

12

2.b 1 D1.1

Report on experience with criteria and indicators of

interest for the evaluation of sustainability of energy

systems

9 R PU SUBMITTED 12

2.b 2 D2.2

Revised set of social indicators that are

comprehensive, operational and compatible with the ecological and economic

indicators

9 R PP SUBMITTED 12

2.b 2 D2.3

List of consensually approved social indicators

resulting from a Delphi exercise

12 R PU Expected 18

2.b 9 D9.1 Reprt on the requirement analysis (basis for MCDA

approach and tool selection)12 R PU Expected

18

3.b 7 D7.7 Project website with public

and private (protected) access

6 O CO/PU DONE

3.b 7 D7.8 Mailing lists 6 O CO Expected 15

134

3.b 7 D7.9 Newsletters 6 R PU DONE

3.b 1 D1.1 NEEDS Forum 1 9 O PU DONE

3.b 7 D7.9 Newsletter 11 Expected

19

3.b 1 D1.2 NEEDS Proceedings Forum

1 or special issue for a journal

12 R PU Expected 13

3.b 1 D1.3 Internet Proceedings Forum 1 12 R PU Expected

14

SI 1 D1 Inception report 4 R RE SUBMITTED 4

SI 2 D2.1 First periodic report on interfaces 6 R RE SUBMITTED

6

SI 2 D2.2 Second periodic report on interfaces 12 R RE SUBMITTED

12

SI 4 D4.1 Interim methodological report 12 R RE SUBMITTED

12

135