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Pertemuan 01Makro Ekonomi dan Industri

Matakuliah : F0392/Simulasi Perdagangan di Bursa Efek

Tahun : 2005

Versi : 1/3

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Learning Outcomes

Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa

akan mampu :

• Mencari informasi tentang makro ekonomi dan sektor industri

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Outline Materi

• Inflasi dan Suku Bunga

• Surplus dan Defisit APBN

• Neraca Perdagangan

• Nilai Tukar Uang

• Siklus Bisnis dan Industri

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Technical & Fundamental Analysis

• Technical analysis – the belief that security prices follow recurrent, predictable patterns

• Fundamental analysis – the belief that every security eventually sells for its intrinsic value

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Fundamental Analysis

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Fundamental Analysis

Objective : Value Shares• Fundamental Analysis: the process of using

fundamental information about a company to arrive at an estimate of the share price

• Fundamental would influence opinion of value

• Value present value of future cash flows

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Fundamental Analysis

• Issue: Must forecast EPS, DPS and growth

• Must forecast economy ‘better’ than others, then translate into investment advice

• Economic forecast => Asset Allocation Recession: Bonds Stocks Expansion: Bonds Stocks

Stocks => Which Industry? => Which Co’s

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Fundamental Analysis

• Top Down Analysis: * Global Economy * Macroeconomy * Industry Analysis * Equity Valuation Models

• Economic forecast => Industry => Co’s

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Global Economy

• Historically -- highly variable growth

• Why important?

Export Co’s - growth opportunities

Competition - imports

Exchange rates

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Effect of Exchange Rates

• Exchange rate - price of one currency in terms of another

• Rising $ ==> takes more of foreign currency to buy a $ (price of $’s )

* Hurts exports - US goods more expensive

* Makes imports more competitive * Helps foreign investment in US * Hurts US investment in foreign

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Effect of Exchange Rates

• Falling $ ==> takes more $ to buy foreign currency (price of $’s )

* Helps exports - US goods cheaper * Makes imports more expensive * Hurts foreign investment in US * Helps US investment in foreign countries

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Macroeconomy

• GDP– Auto– Steel– Manufacturing in general

• Inflation– Regulated co’s; utilities– Input prices more flexible than output– Oil companies w/reserves

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Macroeconomy

• Exchange Rates– Export sensitive: want weak dollar– Import sensitive (inputs): want strong dollar

• Interest rates– Housing– Consumer durables– Business investment– Financial services companies– Utilities

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Macroeconomy

• Consumer sentiment– Autos– Consumer durables

• Fiscal Policy– Government Spending– Taxes

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Monetary Policy

• Money supply & prices

• Open market operations: Fed buys/sells bonds => two impacts

Market Clearing (short-run) Buys ==> reserves ; bond prices ; rates Sells ==> reserves ; bond prices ; rates

Inflation Expectations (long-run)

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Leading Economic Indicators

• Tend to lead rest of economy:

Money Supply Stock Market Weekly hours Changes in raw materials prices ∆’s in consumer expectations

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Industry Analysis

• Issue: How sensitive is industry to business cycle?

• First: Define Industry– SIC codes (recently revised)– Moodys, S&P, Value Line forecasts

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Sensitivity to Business Cycle

• Sensitivity of Sales Sensitive: Autos, Steel, Luxuries

Non-Sensitive: Necessities; cons. Staples

• Operating Leverage - firms with high OL are more sensitive (more fixed costs => cannot reduce costs with sales)

• Financial Leverage - use of debt financing

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Industry Analysis

• Industry Life Cycles or Phases– Start up (product development; rapid growth)– Consolidation (software; stable growth)– Maturity (utilities; slowing growth)– Decline (domestic tobacco)

• High growers => profit opport. => competition Ease of entry ==> competition

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Summary

Economy

Sales

Operating/FinancialLeverage

Earnings (Cash Flow)

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Tugas

Kerjakan dan kumpulkan pada Pert 02

• Tugas 01-1

• Tugas 01-2

• Tugas 01-3