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1
Plug-In Cars: Enhancing Smart Grid Investment Returns
Steven E. Letendre, PhDAssociate Professor
Green Mountain CollegePoultney, VT
May 19, 2010REV DG Conference 2010
Manchester, VT
2
Coming to a showroom near you…?
3
What we know?• Plug-in cars dramatically improve fuel
economy
• Initial vehicle launch (GMC and Nissan) later this year with MSRP well north of $30K.
• Lithium Ion batteries (Leaf 24 kWh / Volt 16 kWh ).
• Agreement on plug (SAE J1772) 3-point 400V.
• There is sufficient off-peak capacity nation-wide to charge a large number of plug-in cars.
• Electricity is a less expensive fuel for cars than gasoline on a per mile basis.
• Federal incentives are key driver, up to $7,500 per car.
4
What we don’t know?
• How robust will the battery packs be and will they require replacement at some point during the life of the vehicle?
• Consumer charging preferences?
• Which companies will dominate the smart charging and vehicle management IT space?
• How quickly will consumers adopt plug-in cars?
• What will the fleet of plug-in cars look like 5, 10, 20, 30 years out?
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Plug-In Cars in Vermont
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
Year
Total Number of AEVs
Base Case
Low Case
High Case
6
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Time of Day
MW Load
Summer Peak
50 k PHEVs
100 k PHEVs
200 k PHEVs
Plug-In Car Charging in Vermont
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Plug-In Car Charging in Vermont
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Time of Day
MW Load
Summer Peak
50 k PHEVs
100 k PHEV
200 k PHEVs
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Using Smart Grids to Unlock V2G Revenue Potential
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Low Hanging, Valuable Fruit—Grid Regulation
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It’s Happening Now($120 - $200 / month / vehicle)
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V2G Resource in Vermont: Projections
2015 2020 2025 2030Low 56 306 667 926Base 116 637 1,390 1,930High 195 1,070 2,335 3,242
Aggregate Energy Storage Potential of Plug-In Fleet(MWh)
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V2G Resource in Vermont: Projections
Aggregate Power Output Potential of Plug-In Fleet(MW)
2015 2020 2025 2030Slow Fast Slow Fast Slow Fast Slow Fast
Low 17 67 61 245 99 401 110 446Base 28 111 101 409 165 669 183 743High 39 156 141 572 231 936 257 1,040
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Smart Grids to Link RE Production with Plug-In Car Charging
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Concluding Thoughts
• Plug-in cars represent a large new load for households and the power system.
• Smart grid technology can serve to: manage vehicle charging, unlock V2G revenues, and link RE production with vehicle charging.
• It may take a decade to see large numbers of plug-in cars in Vermont, but meaningful demonstrations can happen (should happen) much sooner.
• Smart grid technologies can generate significant value creating a bridge between the electric system and the auto fleet.
Thank You! Please ask questions…
15
Acknowledgments
Vermont Department of Public Service