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1. Project title, Project Number, Principal Investigator and contact details
ASSESSMENT OF MARINE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AT THE
LATIN-AMERICAN ANTARES TIME-SERIES NETWORK
CRN3094
PI: Milton Kampel, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Brazil,
Participants by country, affiliation and role in the project:
Brazil
1. Milton Kampel, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Brazil,
[email protected] (PI-Project IAI-Antares) (Antares Station PI – Ubatuba)
(Satellite component-Project IAI-Antares)
2. Alexander Turra, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto Oceanográfico (IO-USP),
Brazil, [email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-Antares) (Ecosystem services / Ocean
governance / Ecological economics / Environmental economics component-Project
IAI-Antares)
3. Paulo Sinisgalli, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Escola de Artes, Ciências e
Humanidades (EACH-USP), Brazil, [email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-Antares)
(Ecosystem services / Ocean governance / Ecological economics / Environmental
economics component-Project IAI-Antares)
4. Pedro Roberto Jacobi, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Educação (FE-
USP), [email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-Antares) (Ecosystem services / Ocean
governance / Ecological economics / Environmental economics component-Project
IAI-Antares)
5. Salvador Gaeta, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto Oceanográfico (IO-USP),
Brazil, [email protected] (Collaborator-Project IAI-Antares) (Antares Station PI –
Ubatuba)
6. Mayza Pompeu, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto Oceanográfico (IO-USP),
Brazil, [email protected] (Collaborator-Project IAI-Antares) (Field work, laboratory
Antares Station – Ubatuba)
7. Natalia de Moraes Ruddorf, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE),
Brazil, [email protected] (Collaborator- Satellite component-Project IAI-Antares)
8. Caroline Cichoski, Universidade de São Paulo, Instituto de Energia e Ambiente (IEE-
PROCAM/USP), [email protected] (Collaborator-Project IAI-Antares)
(Ecosystem services / Ocean governance / Ecological economics / Environmental
economics component)
9. Iuri Amazonas, Universidade de São Paulo, Instituto de Energia e Ambiente (IEE-
PROCAM/USP), [email protected] (Collaborator-Tur-Project IAI-Antares)
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(Collaborator-Project IAI-Antares) (Ecosystem services / Ocean governance /
Ecological economics / Environmental economics component)
10. Patricia Pinho, Brazil, [email protected](Collaborator-Social Science)
11. Silvana Vianna Rodrigues, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Brazil,
[email protected] (Collaborator-Pigment analysis-Project IAI-Antares)
Argentina
12. Vivian Lutz, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero, Consejo
Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (INIDEP-CONICET), Argentina,
[email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-Antares-coordination activities) (Antares
Station Co-PI – Bio-optics– EPEA)
13. Rubén Mario Negri, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero,
Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales
(INIDEP-FCEN-UNMdP), Argentina, [email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-
Antares) (Antares Station PI –- Plankton dynamics- EPEA)
14. Martina G. Chidiak, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
(ECON-UBA), Argentina, [email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-Antares)
(Socioeconomic analysis & Environmental economics component-Project IAI-
Antares) (Ecosystem services / Ocean governance / Ecological economics /
Environmental economics component-Project IAI-Antares)
15. I. Carciofi, independent consultant, [email protected] (Collaborator -
Socioeconomic analysis & Environmental economics component-Project IAI-Antares)
(Ecosystem services / Ocean governance / Ecological economics / Environmental
economics component-Project IAI-Antares)
16. Ana Dogliotti, Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio, Consejo Nacional de
Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (IAFE-CONICET), Argentina,
[email protected] (Collaborator - Satellite component-Project IAI-Antares)
17. Martín Saraceno, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, Consejo
Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Universidad de Buenos Aires
(CIMA-CONICET-UBA); Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y de los
Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires (DCAO-UBA), Argentina,
[email protected] (Collaborator - Satellite component-Project IAI-Antares)
18. Virginia Palastanga, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
(CONICET), Servicio de Hidrografía Naval, [email protected] (Collaborator
- Modeling component-Project IAI-Antares)
19. Mario Carignan, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero
(INIDEP), Argentina, [email protected] (Collaborator-Project IAI-Antares)
(Nutrients- Antares Station – EPEA)
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20. Ricardo Silva, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero (INIDEP),
Argentina, [email protected] (Collaborator-Project IAI-Antares) (Phytoplankton-
Antares Station – EPEA)
21. Valeria Segura, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero (INIDEP),
Argentina, [email protected] (Collaborator-Project IAI-Antares) (Primary
Production- Antares Station – EPEA)
22. Guillermina Ruiz, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
(CONICET), Argentina, [email protected] (Collaborator-Project IAI-
Antares) (Bio-optics- Antares Station – EPEA)
23. Carla Berghoff, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero (INIDEP),
Argentina, [email protected] (Collaborator-Project IAI-Antares) (Carbonate
System- Antares Station – EPEA)
24. Ezequiel Cozzolino, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero
(INIDEP), Argentina, [email protected] (Collaborator-Project IAI-Antares)
(Collaborator - Satellite component-Project IAI-Antares)
25. Blas Amato Uriburu, PIRNA (Programa de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales y
Ambiente), Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina,
[email protected], (Collaborator- Social Analysis-Project IAI-Antares).
Mexico
26. Eduardo Santamaría-del Ángel (Antares Coordinator), Facultad de Ciencias
Marinas, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California (FCM-UABC), Mexico,
[email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-Antares) (Antares Station PI –
Ensenada) (Satellite component-Project IAI-Antares)
27. Roberto Millán-Núñez, Facultad de Ciencias Marinas, Universidad Autónoma de
Baja California (FCM-UABC), Mexico, [email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-
Antares) (Pigments analysis component-Project IAI-Antares)
28. Adriana González-Silvera, Facultad de Ciencias Marinas, Universidad Autónoma de
Baja California (FCM-UABC), Mexico, Adriana.gonzalez @uabc.edu.mx
(Collaborator – Bio-optics - Ensenada Station - Project IAI-Antares)
29. Ramon Cajal-Medrano, Facultad de Ciencias Marinas, Universidad Autónoma de
Baja California (FCM-UABC), Mexico, rcajal @uabc.edu.mx (Collaborator –
Nutrients- Ensenada Station - Project IAI-Antares)
30. Omar Cervantes, Facultad de Ciencias Marinas (FACIMAR),Universidad de Colima,
Mexico, [email protected] (Collaborator – Ecosystem services / Ocean
governance / Ecological economics / Environmental economics component-Project
IAI-Antares)
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(Collaborator-Project IAI-Antares) (Ocean Satellite estimates / Processing and
distribution of satellite information)
31. Sergio Cerdeira-Estrada, Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la
Biodiversidad (CONABIO), Mexico, [email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-
Antares) (Satellite component-Project IAI-Antares)
Venezuela
32. Yrene M. Astor, Fundación La Salle de Ciencias Naturales, Estación de
Investigaciones Marinas de Margarita (EDIMAR-FLASA), Venezuela,
[email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-Antares) (Antares Station PI – Cariaco)
33. Ramon Varela, Fundación La Salle de Ciencias Naturales, Estación de
Investigaciones Marinas de Margarita (EDIMAR-FLASA), Venezuela,
[email protected] (Collaborator- Antares Station – Cariaco Project IAI-
Antares)
34. Jaimie Rojas, Fundación La Salle de Ciencias Naturales, Estación de Investigaciones
Marinas de Margarita (EDIMAR-FLASA), Venezuela, [email protected]
(Collaborator- Antares Station – Cariaco Project IAI-Antares)
35. Luis Medina, Fundación La Salle de Ciencias Naturales, Estación de Investigaciones
Marinas de Margarita (EDIMAR-FLASA), Venezuela, [email protected]
(Collaborator- Antares Station – Cariaco Project IAI-Antares)
Chile
36. Rubén Escribano, Departamento de Oceanografía, Universidad de Concepción
(IMO- UdeC), Chile, [email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-Antares)
(Antares Station PI – Concepción)
37. Carmen Morales, Departamento de Oceanografía, Universidad de Concepción (IMO-
UdeC), Chile, [email protected] (Collaborator- Plankton dynamics- Antares Station–
Concepción Project IAI-Antares)
Peru
38. Jesus Ledesma, Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Peru,
[email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-Antares) (Antares Station PI – IMARPE)
39. Luis Escudero Herrera, Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Peru,
[email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-Antares) (Antares Station PI – IMARPE)
USA
40. Robert Frouin, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California-San
Diego (SIO-UCSD), USA, [email protected] (CoPI-Project IAI-Antares) (Satellite
component-Project IAI-Antares) (Modeling component-Project IAI-Antares)
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41. Shubha Sathyendranath, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK,
[email protected] (Collaborator-Advisor Antares Network - Project IAI-
Antares)
(Collaborator-Project IAI-Antares) (Ocean Field estimations / Measurements at sea
and analyses of samples)
Colombia
42. Mary Luz Cañón-Páez, Centro de Investigaciones Oceanográficas e Hidrográficas
del Caribe (CIOH), Colombia, [email protected] (Collaborator - Project IAI-
Antares) (Antares Station Co-PI – Cartagena)
43. Gustavo Tous, Centro de Investigaciones Oceanográficas e Hidrográficas del Caribe
(CIOH), Colombia, [email protected] (Collaborator - Project IAI-Antares)
(Antares Station PI – Cartagena)
44. Liseth Arregoces, Centro de Investigaciones Oceanográficas e Hidrográficas del
Caribe (CIOH), Colombia, [email protected] (Collaborator- Field
work Antares Station– Cartagena - Project IAI-Antares)
Ecuador
45. María Elena Tapia, Armada del Ecuador, Instituto Oceanográfico de la Armada
(INOCAR), Ecuador, [email protected] (Collaborator - Project IAI-Antares)
(Antares Station PI – La Libertad/Manta)
46. Christian Manuel Naranjo Padilla, Armada del Ecuador, Instituto Oceanográfico de
la Armada (INOCAR), Ecuador, [email protected] (Collaborator - Project
IAI-Antares) (Antares Station PI – La Libertad/Manta)
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2. Project funding
Complementary Funds 2014
Donor name Recipient institution / PI Amount
POGO-Nippon Foundation UABC 35,000 USD
PETROBRAS/FUNCATE INPE 15,000 USD
Office of Naval Research -
Global
INPE 25,000 USD
INIDEP funds for cruises INIDEP 45,000 USD
PIDDEF (Ministry of Defense) INIDEP 10,000 USD
CONICET International
Cooperation linked to IAI-
CRN3094
INIDEP 5,000 USD
Consejo nacional de Ciencia y
Tecnologia (CONACYT) Mexico
UABC $15,000 USD
UABC UABC $10,000 USD
FONACIT/MCTI, Venezuela.
Project 2011000353
Fundación La Salle, UDO,
IVIC, USB
Bs 2,626,197.22
National Science Fundation,
USA-Venezuela
University of South Florida
1 year funding, ship time
$41,000
CONICYT Chile funds for
cruises
UdeC $30,000 USD
IMARPE funds for cruises IMARPE $20,000 USD
Total 251,000 USD
Administration IAI-CRN3094
We provide here a statement of the current state in each institution. We have 9 participating
institutions, from 7 countries. This is the list of institutions with signed agreements:
INPE (Brazil) -------------------------------OK
USP (Brazil)--------------------------------- OK
INIDEP (Argentina)-------------------------OK
UDEC (Chile)------------------------------- OK
UBATEC (Argentina)---------------------- OK
SIO (USA) ----------------------------------- OK
EDIMAR (Venezuela)-----------------------OK
UABC (Mexico)---------------------------- OK
IMARPE (Peru)---------------------------- OK
Unfortunately, as for today 15 of May 2015, CONABIO (Mexico), INOCAR (Ecuador) and
CIOH (Colombia) were unable to sign their respective sub grant agreements. Hence, very
much to our frustration they cannot have Co-PIs or receive funds from this project.
Nevertheless, the colleagues from these institutions are willing to keep on interacting and
working in the project as Collaborators.
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3. Research Activities and Findings
LONG TERM GOALS
Our overarching long term goal is to understand the impact that changes in the ocean may
have especially in regulating and supporting ecosystem services provided by phytoplankton
and to investigate the connection of these ecosystem services with the human populations in
the coastal areas of the Antares network sites (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador,
Peru, Mexico and Venezuela). In addition, we intend to understand the functioning of the
different local systems, including how they are connected at a regional scale.
OBJECTIVES
The primary goals of this study are:
1. Evaluate the main temporal trend in changes in phytoplankton biomass and
composition at each region and the main environmental variables.
2. Identify and assess ecosystem services associated with phytoplankton and the
influence of natural and man- made (climate change-local) drivers.
3. Characterize the linkages between trends in phytoplankton ecosystem services via
economic activities such as fisheries, and key services as carbon uptake and nutrient
cycling.
4. Generate integrated Socioeconomic and Natural Science assessment methods to better
understand and communicate the dynamics of ecosystem services and their policy
implications.
APPROACH
Our approach to achieving the above objectives consists of the following components:
1. Integrate data on phytoplankton and oceanographic variables regulating their growth
collected at eight time-series stations around Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Mexico and Venezuela). Historical in situ observations
together with remote sensing information will be used to investigate the state and
trend of changes in phytoplankton populations and the oceanographic environment.
2. Complement these studies by modeling tasks aimed at understanding the functioning
of the different local systems.
3. Focus on some (unexplored) linkages between the natural and socioeconomic systems:
the channels through which phytoplankton ecosystem services are related and
contribute to the socioeconomic system and how global change is affecting them.
Exploring these relationships will be the main contribution of the project with regard
to its multidisciplinary objective.
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4. Work Plan for Next Year with Associated Costs*
CNR 3094
Work Plan (more in detail for 2015)
Project Components - Scheme of Connections
A scheme of connections among the components of the project was sketched, where
we highlighted the main natural variables that are being estimated and how they serve as input
to interdisciplinary studies of some ecosystem services provided by phytoplankton, and
scenario analysis. This is an extremely simplified sketch, more natural variables and processes
(such as physical drivers of phytoplankton blooms) will be analyzed and used in building our
understanding of how possible changes in phytoplankton will affect society. One of the goals
of the project is to make visible to society the important role of phytoplankton in our lives.
Therefore, here we will focus (within the natural component) on phytoplankton and the main
factors affecting it in the ocean (e.g., light, temperature) and we will have to make some
gross-basic accepted assumptions regarding other natural factors (e.g., intermediate steps in
the food web and transferences among them).
* Note on Associated Costs:
Expected budget corresponds to Summary of YEAR 1 + 80% of YEAR 2. Please see the
reviewed Budget bellow.
9
I. Research activities
A. Natural science
Ocean Field estimations
(i) Measurements at sea and analyses of samples
Continuing sampling at the Antares time-series-stations will involve the work of Co-
PIs and collaborators dedicated to the measurements of variables at sea and analyses of
samples in the laboratory (see complete list of variables in Table-1 of the proposal, and main
ones in Figure 1 of this report). Carrying out this type of frequent sampling requires the
conjunct effort from many researchers, only those main responsible in this project are
mentioned here:
Mayza Pompeu (USP), Salvador Gaeta (USP), Milton Kampel (USP) from the Antares-
Ubatuba station (Brazil).
Eduardo Santamaria, Roberto Millan, Adriana Gonzalez from the Antares-Ensenada station
(UABC, Mexico).
Ruben Escribano (UdeC), Carmen Morales (UdeC) from Station 18 off the Concepcion
(Chile).
Rubén Negri (INIDEP), Vivian Lutz (INIDEP), Ricardo Silva (INIDEP), Guillermina Ruiz
(CONICET) from the EPEA station (Argentina).
Luis Escudero (IMARPE), Jesús Ledesma (IMARPE) from IMARPE station (Peru).
Yrene Astor (EDIMAR), Jaimie Rojas (EDIMAR), Luis Medina (EDIMAR) from CARIACO
station (Venezuela).
Due-date: Collecting data with periodicity will continue throughout the project at each time-
series station (also including the stations in Colombia and Ecuador).
(ii) Organization of the in situ database
A general format for a unified in situ data-base will be coordinated by Guillermina Ruiz, Luis
Medina, Jesus Ledesma and Ruben Escribano. They will interact with one local contact in
each station.
Due-date-1: June 2015. Advanced, draft dataset.
Due-date-2: September 2015. Database up-to-date in a format easy to keep on including new
data coming.
Associated Costs with A(i) and A(ii) = 74,420.00USD
(Including Res. Assist., equipments, materials, travel)
Ocean Satellite estimations
(iii) Processing and distribution of satellite information
As a first phase it was agreed to re-establish the system of processing and distribution
of satellite information that Antares had previously, this will be done at INPE (Brazil) in
collaboration with CONABIO (Mexico).
Responsible: Milton Kampel and Sergio Cerdeira.
10
Due-date-1: before end of June 2015:
- ANTARES network webpage is running from CONABIO. A mirror will be installed at
INPE before the end of June 2015.
- An expert in the implementation of the system running at the USF provided a full list of
technical/computational requirements necessary for the operation.
- Milton Kampel will make the arrangements for running the system from INPE.
- Sergio Cerdeira will contact CONABIO authorities to confirm the feasibility to run the
system from there, as a mirror.
- Vivian Lutz will contact the Co-PIs from the Antares stations to get the area of interest
around their station to be used for retrieving satellite information.
Foreseeable troubles: Sometimes internet connection may be too low to download data from
NASA in real-time in Brazil (the same may happen in Mexico). However, a delay (1 or 2
days) in displaying the data would be the only consequence of this situation. It was agreed
that this may not represent a critical problem.
A second phase (2015-2016) will contemplate the incorporation of new tools useful
for the user, such as the possibility to obtain in a simple way a time series of satellite data on a
certain product (e.g., SST and Chla); as well as obtaining a continuous transect of data
between two coordinates. The use of altimetry information to derive circulation around our
Antares sites will be assessed (Martín Saraceno).
Associated Costs with A(iii) = 19,180.00USD
(Including Res. Assist., Equipment, Travel)
(iv) Satellite modelling of Primary and Fish Production
As a first step it was agreed that an existing global estimation of PP (Oregon
University)* will be used in 2015.
The simple ‘fish potential production’ of Pauly (2005) will be used to parameterize the
transference of biomass from phytoplankton to the fisheries of interest.
FP=PP * (TE)^(NT-1)
FP: potential fish production
PP: primary production
TE: trophic efficiency
NT: number of trophic levels
Responsible: Milton Kampel – Omar Cervantes – Ignacio Carciofi.
Due-date-1: June 2015. Vivian Lutz will contact the Co-PIs from each station to get
information about the species of interest, preferentially small pelagic fish, and the area of
distribution (which could be large, but should include the Antares time-series station).
Due-date-2: July 2015 draft fisheries model.
Due-date-3: September 2015 first results of the model.
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* Later on (2015-2016) the PP estimations for the areas around stations that perform PP
experiments can be improved by using a more appropriate model, which requires field
estimations of photosynthetic parameters (Ana Dogliotti, Ezequiel Cozzolino).
In a second phase the PP estimations obtained by Ocean Modelling can be used to set
different starting points in these estimations. Either the more refined from the NPZD model,
as well as the more gross resolution in space but higher temporal resolution provided by the
NEMO (large scale model). This last model offers the possibility of setting future scenarios
for the PP.
Associated Costs with A(iv) = 9,000USD
(Including Res. Assist.)
(v) Ocean Modelling (NPZD)
A version of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) coupled to a
biogeochemical model is just starting to be implemented for our Antares time-series. The
activities will be aimed at setting the parameters and frame for the Nitrogen-Phytoplankton-
Zooplankton-Detritus model for the EPEA station in Argentina at first, and later on (2015-
2016) for the CARIACO station. Model variables include Chla, one type of phytoplankton,
one type of zooplankton, small and large detritus of nitrogen and carbon, and the model
diagnoses rates of primary production (new and regenerated).
Responsible: Virginia Palastanga, Vivian Lutz, Ruben Negri, Ricardo Silva.
Due-date-1: May 2015. First meeting among the experts responsible of the activities,
development of working plan.
Due-date-2: September 2015. First model results.
Associated Costs with A(v) = 7,200USD
(Including Res. Assist.)
(vi) Ocean Modelling (NEMO large scale)
Seasonal maps for the whole Latin America (including all Antares stations) will be
obtained for the distribution of: Temperature, PP, Chla, two main types of phytoplankton,
zooplankton, and difference of partial pressure of CO2 between the atmosphere and the ocean.
Although the spatial resolution is low (0.5°), it will provide a frame of environmental
conditions, plankton distribution and processes at a larger regional scale connecting the more
fine resolution information obtained at the local in situ data or by the NPZD model.
NEMO, which includes a circulation model (ORCA) and a biogeochemistry model
(PISCES) is running operationally at SIO. This model can be run in a long time-series as a
‘hind-cast’ (from 1960) and as a ‘fore-cast’ (up to 100 years into the future). This will allow
in a second phase to assess long-term trends in the variables of interest.
Responsible: Robert Frouin.
Due-date-1: June 2015 advanced on the model runs.
Due-date-2: September 2015 first seasonal maps.
Associated Costs with A(vi) = 9,000USD
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(Including Res. Assist.)
B. Integrated (Socioeconomic) Analysis of Ecosystem Services
(i) Case Study: ‘Recreational value of a coastal area’
At one (possible two) coastal areas close to some of our Antares stations it will be
assessed the willingness to pay (cost of travel, hotel, food, use of sport equipment) to spend
time at a beach resort because of the quality or beauty of the place will be assessed via a
“travel cost” method. The definition of this “coastal scenery2” will be related to the color
(trophic state) and temperature (SST) of the ocean.
An index to be be developed will include some of the natural variables measured:
Chla (proxy of phytoplankton biomass), SST (temperature), PAR (sunlight), kd (measure of
water transparency), aph (measure of influence of phytoplankton in water transparency), ad
(measure of influence of non-phytoplankton particles in water transparency), ay (measure of
influence of dissolved organic matter in water transparency).
[High PAR + low kd (more influenced by aph, than by ad and ay] → Benefits ($).
Responsible: Omar Cervantes – (+student) – (collaborators: Martina Chidiak and Ignacio
Carciofi on methodology)
Due date-1: June 2015 first outline of the study (methodology-study in Mexico).
Due-date-2: September 2015. First draft Methodology and Mexico Study.
During 2016-2017: A similar study, using a similar methodology, will be implemented in
another Antares site (e.g., close to EPEA coastline: Mar del Plata – Miramar, Argentina).
2The natural features of a landscape considered in terms of their appearance, especially when
considered like an environmental active (economics) give support to an economic activity like tourism
and recreation. These issues are linked to human welfare.
Associated Costs with B(i) = 8,400.00USD
(Including Res. Assist.)
(ii) Regional scenario analysis. Basic trends in primary production and
socioeconomic impacts in the fisheries sector.
In order to set the scene for the dialogue with policymakers at the first workshop, an initial
approach to analyze and present -in a friendly format- the regional diversity covered in the
project and the projected trends for primary production and their effects on fisheries will be
elaborated. The results will be presented in a scenario format with colored maps reflecting the
trends in basic natural and socioeconomic statistics (i.e. indicating increase or decrease). This
will be developed on the basis of available socioeconomic and natural (primary production)
information. The socioeconomic data will be gathered from FAO and other regional -e.g.
CEPAL- statistics on fisheries' production and this sector's economic relevance -exports,
GDP, employment- for all Latin American countries included in the project. This task will be
performed by the socioeconomic team in Argentina -students funded in the frameworks of the
UBATEC contract+economic consultant-) and the scenario analysis will be developed in
collaboration with INPE/INIDEP/USP CO-PIs. The data on primary production will be based
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on satellite information and preliminary model estimates (please see Satellite modelling of
Primary and Fish Production above).
Associated Costs with B(ii) = 9,600USD
(Including Res. Assist., travel)
C) Socioeconomic Analysis
Apart from making the first attempts at measuring ecosystem services and their
socioeconomic impacts, another important contribution from this project will be to expand
our understanding of the linkages between ecosystem services and human groups (in their
different scales at local, regional and national socioeconomic systems). This will be done
using a variety of approaches, many of them interdisciplinary, as reflected in the following list
of studies that will be partly based on dialogue and interaction with decision-makers:
(i) Framing Study. Ocean Governance: Analysis of global and regional mechanisms.
Assessment of the role of ecosystem services and socio-economic impacts.
Analysis of the existing ocean governance framework, survey of the debate on global and
regional governance mechanisms. Review of property-right regimes in Exclusive Economic
Zones, and regulations on fish stocks management. Assessment of the economic role of
marine ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting services) and
their essential contribution to sustainable development: threats to marine ecosystem services
and economic impacts. Formal and informal mechanisms in place. Interviews with foreign
office representatives at regional (Mercosur) level.
Responsible: Cecilia Filipello (MA Thesis – International Relations)– Martina Chidiak
(supervisor)
Due date-1: July 2015: First draft– literature review and information mapping.
Due-date-2: September 2015. Second Draft.
Due date 3: December 2015: Results (paper).
Associated Costs with C(i) = 12,700.00USD
(Including Res. Assist., Travel)
(ii) Case Study on Social Learning
The task is to do an integrated assessment of Ecosystem Services (ESs) associated to
marine primary productivity, to understand and communicate the dynamics of these and their
implications facing the need to adapt to climate change. We will run a survey in ESs primary
productivity caused by local and global changes, and how these change the dynamics of local
communities that are dependent on ESs, eg. fishing - provision service. In order to understand
how these impacts and changes may require adaptation processes by these actors and assess
how these impacts are perceived / identified by the affected stakeholders. For such we will do
a mapping of relationships and actions between the actors affected by the changes and actors
who manage such changes (decision makers).
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We will develop a communication process and knowledge transfer to stakeholders in order to
understand and also foster social learning within adaptations and management impacts. Steps
2015.
1 - Mapping of specific actors related to marine ESs;
2 - Survey of changes / impacts on related ESs.
3 - Survey of information - how the issue is the agenda of decision makers.
4 - Transfer / translation of information for decision makers - start development tool.
Responsible: Carol Cichosky – Alex Turra – Paulo Sinisgalli – Pedro Jacobi
Associated Costs with C(ii) = 28,800.00USD
(Including Res. Assist.)
(iii) Case Study. Perception and Evaluation of linkages between artisanal fisheries
and tourism in UBATUBA, SP, Brazil In order to identify the causes of main impacts of fishing and tourism activities over the
marine ecosystem, we will perform a survey focused on the main impacted groups, especially
the artisanal fishermen (who rent boats for fishing and those who use canoes). We also want
to understand how they perceive changes in the marine ecosystem and how they can be
negatively affected by/adapt to changes in the marine ecosystem.We will map the decision
makers and build an organization chart containing the institutions involved in the governance
and their roles. This mapping will be focused on fisheries and tourism, and we will try to
include the project theme in discussions of these groups. During 2016 and 2017, we will
conduct a study of temporal occupation of the territory of Ubatuba, in order to understand
temporal relationship between the 'natural' data and the territorial expansion and associated
changes in the marine ecosystem.
Due date-1: July 2015: First draft– literature review and assessment of impacts.
Due-date-2: September 2015. Second Draft -organization chart of the institutions involved in
governance and its attribution.
Responsible: Iuri Amazonas - Alex Turra – Paulo Sinisgalli – Pedro Jacobi
Associated Costs with C(iii) = 11,600.00USD
(Including Res. Assist.)
(iv) Socioeconomic Impacts of Fisheries (Argentina)
Economic Analysis of the Adverse Shocks to Fishing Stocks Produced by Climate
Change. A Simulation Model
The main purpose of this study is to analyze the economic impact of climate change on the
fishing activity. The natural science component of Antares project is developing a parametric
analysis of the transference of biomass to phytoplankton for several fisheries, thereby
providing a valuable input for assessing physical magnitudes and stocks. A potential negative
shock on the biomass would have severe economic consequences for the fishing sector in
Argentina and therefore the need for studying it.
The economic analysis will be carried out with a partial equilibrium framework with a
fisheries' model. Climate change impacts on phytoplankton and fish biomass will be
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considered as negative supply shocks. The parameters of the shock and the associated time
path will rely on the results from many research activities from the natural component. The
first input for considering ‘potential fish production’ will be the output of the “Satellite
modeling of Primary and Fish Production”.
The model will attempt an estimate of price and quantities associated with negative supply
shocks. Once these primary results are obtained, the analysis can be extended to consider
impacts on different suppliers as well as on Argentine exports. The model also allows other
connections of high policy relevance. Firstly, the question biomass sustainability. Different
species like Hubbsi Hake have been over exploited for several years and stocks are gradually
recovering mainly due to two factors: macroeconomic variables and regulation. How this
dynamic is affected by a combination of negative shocks, higher prices and a potential
increasing fishing efforts? While part of the answer has to do with biological issues, it is also
interesting to investigate how the economic activity would result in the new scenario. Second,
climate change effects might not have a uniform impact across regions. If impacts are
geographically concentrated it is expected that fishing efforts will move on accordingly.
However, industrial facilities located in land –including harbors- and employment may not
have similar mobility. Third, and assuming a reduction of available biomass, the research
should enter into the likely impacts on the fishing sector –particularly on fishing fleets. In the
past, overexploitation led to outright closures and, more recently, to fishing quotas. The
adjustment entailed considerable costs in terms of employment and reduction of capital. Also
social costs were unevenly distributed between different players. However, climate change
impacts are of different nature: they develop gradually and during a considerable time span.
Therefore, public policies have, in principle, a greater chance to intervene with adequate
instruments. Finally, the study should devote attention to issues of capital mobility within the
fishing sector.
It is expected that the proposed study will provide new data and analysis thereby
contributing to a largely unexplored field. Furthermore, the research may contribute to policy
design and to widen the dialogue among different stakeholders and to foster the dialogue
among natural scientists and socioeconomic researchers.
Due date-1: September 2015: Methodological Framework and Preliminary Analysis.
Due-date-2: December 2015: Study First draft
Responsible: Ignacio Carciofi (+student).
Associated Costs with C(iv) = 23,400USD
(Including Res. Consult.)
2. Other Activities (co-construction, dissemination and communication)
(i) Project Meetings
The need to maintain a more frequent communication was mentioned as a key factor
for the progress of this multidisciplinary and multitudinary project. To reduce costs, it was
proposed to have monthly virtual meetings and one presencial meeting during 2015.
Coordinators of the Virtual Meetings: Vivian Lutz and Sergio Cerdeira.
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It was also decided to have periodical virtual meetings of each disciplinary
component, grouped as follows: Group 1 – In situ time series; Group 2 – Satellite; Group 3 –
Natural models; Group 4 – Ecosystem services and socio-economics.
The presential meeting will be tail-to-tail with the ‘Congreso Latinoamericano de las Ciencias
Marinas COLACMAR 2015’ to be held in Santa Marta, Colombia in October 2015. In this
way some of the participants would have the cost of the travel financed by other sources, and
fewer travel expenses will be covered by this project. Eduardo Santamaria and Gustavo Tous
will coordinate and maintain participants informed about this meeting.
(ii) Workshop with decision-makers
In the last quarter of 2015 it is envisaged that a dialogue space with decision-makers
from Brazil and Argentina and other possible countries (such as Mexico) will be initiated to
discuss with them the preliminary inter-disciplinary scenarios, conduct perception analysis
and co-construct the relevant questions and analysis.
To this aim, a workshop with participation of project representatives (from both natural
science and socioeconomic analysis teams) and decision-makers will be conducted. The
workshop will aim at discussing the work plan and preliminary results (on scenarios) with
decision-makers. During (or shortly before) the workshop a study on decision-maker
perceptions on phytoplankton ecosystem services and their socioeconomic impacts and links
to climate change will be conducted. Key collaborators in the socio-economic team will
participate and develop perception analysis (Blas Amato, UBATEC team).
Associated Costs with 2(ii) = 36,600USD
(Including Res. Assist. and Travel)
*We should also consider the use of some funds for communications with decision-makers,
stake-holders, as well, as some traveling for fulfilling the activities properly.
Associated Costs = 9,600.00USD
Summary of Associated Costs
Activity Budget (USD)
A(i)+A(ii) 74,420
A(iii) 19,180
A(iv) 9,000
A(v) 7,200
A(vi) 9,000
B(i) 8,400
B(ii) 9,600
C(i) 12,700
C(ii) 28,800
C(iii) 11,600
C(iv) 23,400
2(i) 0,00
2(ii) 36,600
Adm. 25,950
Extras 9,600
Total 285,450
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3. Publications
The following publications are envisioned at the moment:
NATURAL COMPONENT
- Finishing manuscript about the different temporal trends in sea-surface-temperature and
chlorophyll at the different Antares stations. Interpretation of possible changes.
Main responsible: Eduardo Santamaria.
Time frame: June 2015. Circulate first draft, to be submitted in September.
- Start of a manuscript about the difference in the index of turbulent kinetic energy in relation
to the variations in Chla at each site. To check the importance of physical processes driving
the system.
Main responsible: Eduardo Santamaria.
Time frame: Circulate Outline in September.
SOCIOECONOMIC COMPONENT
- Each socio-economic study will lead to a specific paper/document (in some cases, MA/MSC
or PhD Thesis).
-The economic analysis of climate change impacts for fisheries' in Argentina will lead to a
methodological paper and a results paper.
INTERDISCIPLINARY ANALYSIS
- Scenario analysis will lead to an initial discussion-paper that will set the background for the
workshop decision-makers.
– A final discussion paper on corrected scenarios including methodology and results.
- A manuscript will be produced about the project and first results found. This would be
submitted to EOS magazine (circulate outline December 2015). Responsible: Adriana
Gonzalez - Milton Kampel (with collaboration of Ignacio Carciofi and Martina Chidiak)
-The case study on valuation of ecosystem services in tourism (travel cost method) may lead
to a methodological paper and a results paper.
4. Perspective for 2016-2017
Based on the research results from 2015, deeper analysis and interpretation of the
‘natural’ information (in situ, satellite and models) will be performed to obtain a picture of the
actual phytoplankton populations and their trends (changes in biomass and composition) at
the different Antares sites. This will provide the most ‘realistic’ status of the primary trophic
level to be compared with the scenarios developed in the natural-socio-economic case studies.
Further to the cases on fisheries and tourism, other aspects of connection between
phytoplankton and society, such as ‘ocean acidification’ and ‘detection of Harmful Algal
Blooms’, will be investigated.
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On the basis of the afore mentioned (natural science) results and of the local analysis
involved in inter-disciplinary and socio-economic case studies on phytoplankton ecosystem
service changes, trends and their socio-economic impacts (including perception analysis and
of the role of scientific information in decision-making), a more thorough understanding of
the socioeconomic impacts from phytoplankton ecosystem service changes will be gained.
This will allow the development of revised phytoplankton ecosystem service scenarios
considering local information/analysis. These scenarios will be discussed in the final project
workshop with decision-makers in 2017. As previously mentioned, an additional study on
effective communication to decision-makers of (climate change related and complex)
information of this sort is envisioned in the context of a post-doc at UBA (Facultad de
Ciencias Economicas) by Veronica Gutman.
5. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
We proceeded to remove from the budget, in the different years the amounts corresponding
to CONABIO (Mexico), INOCAR (Ecuador) and CIOH (Colombia). The work plan for 2015
has been also slightly arranged according to the new situation. This has not signified a big
change, since all the researchers involved from these institutions have manifested their
commitment to keep on contributing with their activities in the project as collaborators. For
this reason, the original objectives of the proposed work-plan are not compromised.
![1.7. IMARPE Puno Ago10[1]](https://img.pdfslide.net/doc/110x75/55cf9bd2550346d033a77f2e/17-imarpe-puno-ago101.jpg)
